|WHAT||8 Michigan v. 1 Duke|
KenPom: Michigan +11 (13% win)
"More like Puke." "More like White Devils." etc.
Shock the World.
If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy:
|Michigan v. Duke: National Ranks|
|Category||Michigan Rank||Duke Rank||Advantage|
|Mich eFG% v. Duke Def eFG%||44||7||D|
|Mich Def eFG% v. Duke eFG%||145||18||DD|
|Mich TO% v. Duke Def TO%||16||98||M|
|Mich Def TO% v. Duke TO%||242||30||DDD|
|Mich OReb% v. Duke DReb%||323||192||DD|
|Mich DReb% v. Duke OReb%||62||80||M|
|Mich FTR v. Duke Opp FTR||343||34||DDDD|
|Mich Opp FTR v. Duke FTR||36||195||MM|
|Mich AdjO v. Duke AdjD||37||2||D|
|Mich AdjD v. Duke AdjO||28||4||D|
Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.
Have I made the "hide ya kids, hide ya wife" joke too many times yet? Yes? Darn. Well anyway, Duke is really good at the basket-ed ball.
Guard Nolan Smith has been their most-frequently deployed player this year, but with the return of the nation's #2 freshman (as a recruit) Kyrie Irving, the guard play may be less of a Smith monopoly. He's an efficient shooter and a very good assist man.
In the frontcourt, Kyle Singler and the Plumlees are all over 6-8, and they're the main reason Duke is 6th in the nation in effective height. Despite that height, Duke is a good-not-great rebounding team. Deploy the VOGRIT.
Unlike Tennessee, Duke has no obvious weaknesses. Which, duh, that's why they're a 1-seed instead of the worst 9-seed in history. Michigan is going to have to shoot the lights out, and hope Duke doesn't do a great job of same. Without playing a near-perfect defensive game (and getting a bit of luck), Michigan probably can't win.
Michigan is as hot as any team in the country, but Duke is Duke. As noted above, this is going to require a near-perfect performance or a very healthy dose of luck for the Wolverines to emerge victorious. I think Matt Vogrich plays double-digit minutes and gets a fair number of MANBOUNDs, and that Darius Morris finishes with a more impressive statistical day than either of Duke's star guards. HOWEVA, Michigan's bigs have trouble staying out of foul... uh... trouble, and Duke pulls away late in the game. The Blue Devils win it, 75-62.
Prove me wrong, Blue.