same [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The Most Uniquely Unsatisfying Sporting Experience In The World Comment Count

Brian January 2nd, 2019 at 11:18 AM

12/29/2018 – Michigan 15, Florida 41 – 10-3, 7-1 Big Ten

I probably shouldn't have started the season with a dissertation on the Black Pit of Negative Expectations, because now what? I'm sure I've repeated myself in this space quite a bit, but I feel like I'm completely out of reactions to games that aren't so much deflating as imploding. I've talked about the Black Pit, mattresses, message boards, and Hell over little more than a calendar year. When I start writing something usually there's a kernel of something I've been thinking about to expand upon. Not so much right now.

This is mostly because I stopped thinking about Michigan's bowl game during the game. Like many people, some of them in pads and a helmet. Everyone knew that Michigan's season ended with the debacle in Columbus. This add-on exhibition was less an opportunity to accomplish something than an unwelcome reminder of college football's existence.

[After the JUMP: a humorous name for one's billy-berries]

I dunno, man. There's been one season that ended well during the existence of this blog, and that was the fool's gold 2011 season when a lurching .500 Ohio State team under Luke Fickell nearly beat Michigan with a freshman Braxton Miller and then Michigan won the Sugar Bowl with approximately three yards of total offense.

Every other season has featured a loss to Ohio State and usually a bowl dorf. Even when Michigan is legitimately good the season ends in a kick to the ol' yimble-yamble. This year's pratfall was exquisitely designed to turn you into a nihilist: first the 700-yard game by OSU, then the team Michigan always beats turns them into leather and bones.

It wears on you. It wears worse when Michigan has literally replicated Michigan State's in-stadium experience and games are the same fucking Buick commercial repeated 15 times with one play in between.

--------------------------------

So: on the one hand this was a game in which Michigan's defense didn't have Rashan Gary, Aubrey Solomon, Devin Bush, Kwity Paye, and Devin Gil for most of the game, the former three for the whole of it. Jordan Glasgow played inside linebacker for a half. Those who did play didn't seem to care very much, which is a thing that happens. A deflated Georgia just got trucked by a Texas team that didn't seem on their level all season.

On the other, Michigan had 50 seconds and two timeouts on the clock, ran for three yards, and called timeout with under 20 seconds on the clock. Michigan's buffoonery before the half isn't a motivation issue. It's something that's plagued Michigan since Harbaugh's arrival. There is no tempo package, in 2018. Down 17 with the end of the third quarter approaching Michigan was still huddling and snapping the ball with under five seconds on the game clock. They had a ten-play, five-minute drive on which the average play stripped 31.4 seconds off the clock. At the end of it they were still down two touchdowns.

Michigan is 124th in S&P+'s pace metric, and the surprising bit of that is that they're not dead last. This is year four. In year four you've got a pretty good idea of what the final product is going to look like. This isn't a bug for Harbaugh, it's a feature.

The last two years Michigan has seemingly scrapped their preseason plan a few games in. There's a ton of coaching turnover, with guys coming in for one year and then bailing. Recruiting has gone in fits and starts; even this year when Michigan's class is the best in the league they still had some baffling in-state failures seemingly brought about by disorganization. The pace of play also speaks to that disorganization.

All of this is probably permanent, and it'll stop Michigan from being an actual power. There will be a breakthrough at some point… probably. I hope I'll be able to appreciate it; I wonder if the whole thing where I look dead-eyed upon another set of hopes going up in the same flames may mute any response I might have to actually winning any damn thing:

The flaw in BPONE operations is of course the impossibility of mining any enjoyment out of your experience. BPONE sufferers assume a football game is a negative emotional event and spread those negative emotions out more broadly. Only if the team should actually come back and win will any regret be felt, and pffffffffft. I'm in the pit, baby! I know for a stone cold fact that a punt snap will somehow lodge itself in the facemask of the punter. I feel it in my bones that the one time we jump a route in this game the ensuing interception will bang off the defensive back's hands and lodge itself in the facemask of the opposition 50 yards downfield.

For now: relief that I don't have to think about this nearly as much for seven months. Basketball school: activate. 

Comments

ijohnb

January 2nd, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^

What do you want him to say? 

First, I actually did think it had some interesting commentary. 

Second, we lost 41-15 to a middling SEC team in which four of our starters including a mid-round pick senior captain chose to sit out instead of play.  That is what happened.  Is there really anything else to say about the occurrence at this point? 

I Like Burgers

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:55 PM ^

What do you want him or anyone to really say that hasn't been said 1000x already?  Michigan football and the commentary and analysis that surround it is stuck in its own personal hell version of Groundhog Day.  Just repeating the same observations, potential fixes, and opinions on the same dumb problems over, and over, and over again.

Michigan needs to fix their OL, Michigan needs a more modern offense, Michigan needs some younger coaches, Michigan's defense isn't up the challenge against good offenses, etc, etc, etc.  It been that exact same analysis for at least the last 4 seasons.

Had he just reposted the same exact end of season story from any of the last 3-4 seasons and just changed the name of the bowl opponent and some players...I don't know how many people would have noticed.

And ironically enough, just the movie Groundhog Day, to get out of this personal hell Harbaugh is going to need is own Bill Murray moment where he just decides to become a better person/coach, and that allows him to finally escape it. 

Otherwise, we'll be repeating this same dumb cycle next season.

SunDiegoBlue

January 2nd, 2019 at 11:52 AM ^

“A bug not a feature” is spot on. I don’t care what style they want to use, but staring at the talent on offense says pass 50% of the time as a baseline for next year (should have been this year too). Collins, DPJ, and Black are like brand new Ferrari’s just sitting in the garage waiting to be driven.  But the owner has all of sudden watched a documentary on global warming. 

I think having one voice of reason for the offense would be excellent too. Hierarchy is imperative for efficiency.  

Go Blue! Basketball school until further notice......

JFW

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:48 PM ^

"like brand new Ferrari’s just sitting in the garage waiting to be driven.  But the owner has all of sudden watched a documentary on global warming. "

My classmates at SNRE would have thought this was awesome... ;-)

Yes, I'd love to see, and was hoping to see, Shae just start gunning in this game. Because why not? In the college football playoffs world, a non CFP bowl game is kind of like having a chance to play fun ball. Sit the punter. Run the transcontinental and the lonesome polecat. Go for it. 

The fact that we don't makes me think that this is largely what we'll see, unless we get someone like a Jedd back to maybe shift the balance of the triumvirate that calls plays. 

FrankMurphy

January 2nd, 2019 at 11:56 AM ^

This is mostly because I stopped thinking about Michigan's bowl game during the game. Like many people, some of them in pads and a helmet. Everyone knew that Michigan's season ended with the debacle in Columbus. This add-on exhibition was less an opportunity to accomplish something than an unwelcome reminder of college football's existence.
This. So much this. In fact, I don't think I've ever read anything written by someone else that so fully and accurately summarized my own feelings. Wow.

uminks

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:01 PM ^

Well, hopefully Harbaugh can start beating OSU and win some B1G championships and make the playoffs, especially when they get expanded to 8 games. I don't see us winning that many NC but we could have that one lucky year like '97 in the future. But I will be OK with finishing with 9-11 wins most seasons, getting back to being .500 with OSU and beating MSU most years. This would be much better than going sub .500 like we did with RR and Hoke. Those were true BPONE years.

JPC

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^

Given the current composition of the Big 10, beating OSU means going to the CFP. I see absolutely no reason why you would think that Harbaugh can get to the CFP 50% of the time, when he can't keep his team from collapsing once in four years. 

This team was seriously talented. Michigan isn't going to attract a much more talented roster going like it is. The transfers are a problem, and these embarrassing losses will eventually hurt recruiting. 

ScooterTooter

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^

They did not collapse in 2015 or 2016. 

They lost to an excellent Ohio State team in 2015 and won their bowl game. 

They nearly beat Ohio State on the road if not for a confluence of events outside of Harbaugh's control in 2016. They nearly beat FSU as well, despite losing Peppers right before the game which certainly put a wrench in their defensive plans. 

And last year was bad, but most of us knew it wasn't going to be great. Despite that, the team still looked better than Ohio State most of that game and were mainly done in by O'Korn.

This year feels like an outlier to the first four when it comes to how the games were actually played. 

JPC

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:21 PM ^

You're right, thanks for the correction. 2015 is the one year that they didn't collapse. That is Harbaugh's best year here I think, all things considered.

That FSU game was very poorly played though, and that's not all on Peppers. 

Every year, besides 2015 as you correctly pointed out, the team peaks some time in the middle of the season and then looks bad in the bowl game: FSU, USC, Florida. This year was slightly better (though with a worse collapse) since they peaked a little later in the year than usual. 

Next year is going to be tough since we have ND, PSU, and OSU towards the latter half of the season. 

ijohnb

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^

2016 was a collapse.  Iowa, Indiana, OSU, and FSU were our last four games. 

It was a collapse.

Interestingly enough, out of all of the games that have been lost over the last four years, the MSU games, the OSU games, the bowl games.  The Iowa game in 2016 seemed to be the turning point.  I am not sure why, but Harbaugh has not been the same coach since that game.

TrueBlue2003

January 2nd, 2019 at 6:00 PM ^

Totally disagree with this.  M was a 20+ point favorite at Iowa.  They were running Jabrill Peppers on read options that were getting blown up by scrape exchanges that they had no answer for.  Read the UFR.  It was an abysmal coaching performance.

And yes, that OSU game was the best defensive performance by a Michigan team since probably 2006 or 1997 and probably was the unfortunate result of Speight having to play injured, but the bowl game was effectively a massacre.  M was very lucky to be in it after being dominated despite being the better team and having like 11 draft picks.

2 of 3 of their final games were disasters.  That's a collapse.

ScooterTooter

January 2nd, 2019 at 8:46 PM ^

Yeah, no. That game mainly came down to Speight missing a ton of throws for no real reason and the receivers not making plays when they could have made them. 

No staff is going to have a perfect run/pass game every game of the season, so Iowa figuring out one thing about Michigan's run game should not have been a disaster. If you actually read that UFR, Brian also points out a lot of the issues are just OLs missing their blocks. He specifically points out that Kalis made mistakes he hadn't all year. Again, not sure what the coaches are supposed to do when guys suddenly just aren't playing well. 

As for FSU, not really sure how you get a massacre out of a game that was 33-32. Michigan might have been lucky to hold a late lead, but calling that a massacre is absurd. Especially since - get this- their literal best player was injured right before the game. 

ScooterTooter

January 2nd, 2019 at 2:00 PM ^

Losing your best player right before the game is probably the difference in a game you go on to lose by one point, right?

You're implying that Harbaugh (and staff) is at fault for a "collapse" that cost the team games. I agree with you this year. I agree on the South Carolina game last year. Before that, I really fail to see where you are coming from. This was something else entirely. 

uminks

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^

We still lack the talent and depth in the trenches. Our OLINE is improving but still not very good (we need good tackles, may be some of the young guys will pan out). Our DLINE has some talented players but most had injuries which shows there is a depth problem. Harbaugh will continue to gain talent but I think he needs a modern OC, since the modern offensive scheme has past him by, I don't think a run oriented RPO will end up beating good defenses. Given only 4 spots I doubt a weaker B1G will make the playoffs. OSU was elite but I think they will be slipping over the next few years and will no longer be elite, probably good like Michigan, so we could end  up winning B1G championships with 2 or 3 losses. Unless PSU becomes elite, I don't see the B1G championship making a 4 team playoffs. I think the playoffs will be expanded to 8 in a few years, so even a good B1G team with 8 or more wins will make the playoffs.

JPC

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:37 PM ^

This idea that Harbaugh is going to build up a huge talent reserve is hard for me to buy. No team, besides Meyer OSU and Alabama, is going to have a perfect roster of high level players at every position with a deep bench of quality back ups. 

Harbaugh had a good RB, a solid but not great OL, 3 NFL quality WRs, an NFL quality TE, and a five star QB with some running ability. That's a really good amount of offensive talent. So good in fact, that they managed to look pretty good despite whatever is going on with the offensive coaching staff. 

Even with all that talent, we can barely move the ball against a mediocre Florida team. 

schreibee

January 2nd, 2019 at 3:40 PM ^

I urge you to revisit Alex Smith vs NO, Kap vs GB (twice I believe), Kap vs Atl

He succeeded with two very different QBs (from each other, and certainly from Luck)

Rudock here in '15 grew & grew til he had a record setting bowl performance.

Shit, Wilton fucking Speight looked pretty good til he broke vs Iowa

Brian Griese

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:02 PM ^

This was a good start, but in my estimation Brian needs to take a step further. I doubt he can have a Dave Brandon effect this time around, but he needs to put Harbaugh on blast (in addition to his time management issues noted in this column) for his refusal to use all of his offensive weapons to the maximum ability (whether it is tempo, touches, philosophy, etc.) and the continuation of a defensive scheme which seems to get shredded by the same offensive scheme in big games (note: in no way do I expect Michigan to shut-out or flat stop OSU and similar offenses in every game).

I thought Brian's response to the OSU game was weak, but I am proud he is at least starting to address some of Harbaugh's issues in this column.  I don't think he's voiced a complaint on a big issue since the ghosting of recruits a few years back.  

xgojim

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:04 PM ^

Bowl games are meaningless scrimmages/exhibitions unless teams are playing at full strength (with the exception of injured players, of course).  Nevertheless, they are not meaningless to those who stage them.  This is not to say that players should not be denied the ability to opt out for future professional reasons.  Don't know how to resolve this except to say that many bowls will have future problems and disappear if it isn't resolved in their favor.  Of course, maybe who (generally) cares?

ColoradoBlue

January 2nd, 2019 at 12:05 PM ^

Cheer up, buttercup... It seems like this site; the posters here; perhaps the fanbase as a whole are very binary in the sense that they are either euphoric or depressed.  There is no in-between, no perspective.  

I'm not happy about how the season ended, and I have some of the same concerns as everyone else.  But I can also look at the body of work over the last 5 years and be pretty proud of my team and school for what they've accomplished.  If my lack of despair somehow offends some of you, sorry.

Brian Griese

January 2nd, 2019 at 1:30 PM ^

23% winning percentage against rivals and in bowl games under Harbaugh.  Hoke's winning percentage in rivalry and bowl games was 26% after 4 years and he was (rightfully) fired.  Rich Rod's was 20% after 3 years and he was (rightfully) fired.  Lloyd more or less faded into the night after the 2003 season; his last 4 years frankly were not very good and everyone (again, probably correctly in hindsight) was ready to run him out of town.  Over his last 4 years, his winning percentage in bowl games and against rivals was 43%.

I do not think Michigan will ever become Bama, nor do I expect a National Title anymore.  But is it too much to ask to have some success against rivals? In Bowl games?  Frankly, I have a hard time understanding why some people aren't depressed to some degree.  

M-Dog

January 2nd, 2019 at 3:29 PM ^

It's not even so much that we haven't done it . . . it's that it does not look like we will do it.

Shea will get better next year.  Parts of the OL will get better.  WRs if we use them and Black does not quit could get better.  TE?  RB?  Who knows?

Does anybody really think that's going to be enough to beat Ohio State if everything else stays static?