Monday Recruitin' Feels At Home
Malik McDowell (#67) is still taking his recruitment at a leisurely pace.
Not All Slow Recruitments Are Bad Recruitments
The list of players once considered long-time Michigan locks only to commit elsewhere is long, distinguished, and oft-cited in just about any discussion about MI DL Malik McDowell. This is understandable: after recruitments of players like Ronald Johnson, Dee Hart, Josh Garnett, Jordan Diamond, and Laquon Treadwell went awry, any recruit that seems to have every reason to pull the trigger yet draws out the process is now met with a healthy amount of skepticism.
In McDowell's case, however, his inertia appears to be a good sign for Michigan. After previously stating that he'd take all five of his official visits to out-of-state schools, that may no longer be the case, per Tim Sullivan ($):
"I want to wait until after the season [to take the visits]," McDowell explained. "I'm still going to try to make it down to Florida over Thanksgiving weekend. I don't know right now just because things are real busy.
"[In addition to Florida, LSU, and Alabama], I don't really have a last two visits planned; I might save the last two for some in-state schools, but I might go out-of-state, I don't really know."
While Michigan State is nominally in the picture, it would be shocking if McDowell chose the Spartans over the Wolverines, so this is quite a good sign for Michigan. Official visits to a trio of top SEC schools can alter any recruitment significantly, of course, but first McDowell has to actually follow through on those visits, which have yet to be set up; even if he makes it to all three schools, it's going to take a lot to unseat the in-state favorite given how many times McDowell has been on Michigan's campus. Given the direction McDowell's recruitment is (slowly) moving, I'd be surprised if he ends up anywhere else.
[Hit THE JUMP for the roundup of best commit performances from last weekend's games.]
Six Down, One To Go
Of the seven 2014 commits who've stated plans to enroll early, six have now made it official:
2014 commits Wilton Speight, Michael Ferns, Drake Harris, Freddy Canteen Brandon Watson and Mason Cole have all signed early enrollee papers
— The M Block (@TheMBlock) October 17, 2013
The last holdout is Bryan Mone, who's relatively quiet on the interview scene, so it's entirely possible that he's already sent in his papers.
Commits In Action: Peppers, Paramus Catholic Fall To Don Bosco
Jabrill Peppers caught five passes for 94 yards and a touchdown, rushed for 65 yards on 13 carries, and excelled on defense despite being plagued by cramps; it wasn't enough to lift Paramus Catholic past Peppers's former school, Don Bosco Prep, in a nationally televised game, as the Paladins fell 20-13. MGoVideo posted highlights of Peppers from the game, which I can't embed so click through.
Damien Harris tallied 264 yards and four touchdowns on just 14 carries, adding a 70-yard interception return to set up another score for good measure in Madison Southern's 56-28 triumph over North Laurel.
Wilton Speight was lifted after the first possession of the third quarter. This was a good thing, as he'd already completed 11 of 14 passes for 197 yards and five touchdowns—with all the TDs coming in the first half—in an eventual 47-7 rout of Fork Union:
“It wasn’t as much about my individual performance as it was the line giving me an ample amount of time,” said Speight, who will enroll at Michigan on a football scholarship in January. “The receivers pretty much caught everything I threw at them.
“This game may have helped my stats and my numbers, but, more importantly, it was a very good team effort. If my team didn’t provide me with so much help, then none of this could have happened today.”
Speight's already mastered coachspeak, too. Kid's ahead of the curve.
George Campbell didn't catch any of East Lake's six completed passes in their 47-3 blowout of Countryside, but that doesn't mean he didn't make an impact—or stay off the scoresheet, as he recovered his own forced fumble in the end zone after a bone-crushing hit:
The Forgotten Man, 2014 greyshirt commit Brady Pallante, notched eight tackles, including a TFL and a sack, in a 35-31 loss for Barron Collier.
Shaun Crawford had a rough weekend despite tallying an 80-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage against St. Ignatius—he lost three fumbles, two of them on punt returns, in a 23-17 upset loss.
October 21st, 2013 at 3:16 PM ^
Conventional wisdom has two remaining slots in the 2014 class going to Malik McDowell and Da'Shawn Hand. Conventional wisdom also has maybe one opening after that, going perhaps to JuJu Smith, or perhaps Marshon Lattimore (& Erick Smith.) Those are all excellent possibilities. While you're not supposed to count your chickens before the eggs have hatched, it's hard not to feel very positive about McDowell and Hand.
My question has to do with OL depth. Cole & Bushell-Beatty are the only OL recruits in 2014, and excellent commitments at that. I'm wondering if the recent ACL injury to Burzinski and the continuing problems for Bryant mean that the coaches might consider pursuing another OL recruit with the last spot available in the 2014 recruiting class. Or has that ship already sailed, with our staff not focusing on any recruits still uncommitted and linesmen who are potentially interested in Michigan.
After the problems the last few years on the line, I really want to see plenty of solid recruits coming in almost every year at the line position. Solid, experienced depth on the line is critical to everything, from protecting the QB, giving him time to pass, to opening lanes for our RB corps. You can't win consistently without consistent line play.
October 21st, 2013 at 3:37 PM ^
Currently we have 5 total lineman who are Sophmores, Juniors or Seniors. When the current Freshman reach their Senior season, we will have 12 players under the same designation barring any transfers or compounding medical RS.
So while your concerns are heard, to add a 13th guy to that list seems a bit unnecesary IMO. It would be nice to get 3-4 more guys in the 2015 class, but idk if the numbers will allow that.
I think normally, you want more than 2 lineman in a given class, but the cupboard was so bare, we had to balance it out at first, and the 2014 class is seeing the effects of that.
October 21st, 2013 at 3:48 PM ^
October 21st, 2013 at 4:15 PM ^
Idk, but let's look at it that way. If he wants 15 on scholarship at all times, he only needs 3 more between two additional classes. The trick will be to even this all out. The best scnario:
3 - Sr./Sr.
3 - Jr./Sr.
3 - So./Jr.
3 - Fr./So.
3 - Freshman
But getting there will be a long process since right now our bottom two classes contains 10 players. Add in the two from 2014, and that is 4 classes worth of players in 3 classes. Thus, an additional 2014 recruit isn't necessary right now.
You can expect a large dropoff in numbers when the current true freshman graduate. This is where limited scholarships can hurt you. Hopefully there are some OL transfers, so that those scholarships can be used in the 2015 & 2016.
October 21st, 2013 at 4:45 PM ^
October 21st, 2013 at 3:54 PM ^
It's probably too late to fix that now, but it would be nice to add another OL recruit in the '14 class.
October 21st, 2013 at 3:25 PM ^
St. Ed's has been beating up on everyone, and if I'm not mistaken, Iggy is down to their 5th string QB.
October 21st, 2013 at 6:57 PM ^
My son goes to Ignatius. They were down to their 4th string QB, but John Thomas, the second string QB was back for the Ed's game. And the only troubling loss for Iggy was to Paramus Catholic and our guy, Jabrill. That game was close (with I think the 3rd string QB) until a rash of mistakes blew it open.
Don't sleep on Ignatius...deep team.
October 21st, 2013 at 3:49 PM ^
It's not so much the recruitments that are met with skepticism as the analysts who say things like "have every reason to pull the trigger yet draws out the process" and "it would be shocking if RECRUIT X chose the SCHOOL Y over the HOME TEAM".
Maybe I'm just old, but this sort of overt bias seems to engender reader-fatigue even for passionate followers of recruiting.
In McDowell case, Michigan may indeed be the favorite but a couple things should give optimists pause.
1. He doesn't say much. This leads to an inbreeding of thought within the recruiting analyst circles which leads to inaccuracy. We saw this with Kam Chatman and Arizona. We saw this with Ronald Johnson and Michigan. Recruits who don't say much are harder to predict.
2. He has plenty of reason to choose other schools. A very reasonable case can be made for the defenses that MSU, LSU, and Alabama have put on the field. Florida has many things going for it as well, and in December the weather difference is particularly notable for southern schools.
In other words, an MSU, Alabama, Florida, or LSU fan could just as (un)reasonably conclude that McDowell "has every reason to pull the trigger" to them as well.
It may not be a very captivating message, but in the long-run it reads more true to just say what's really going on here: we don't know, so just wait. All that said - it is a positive sign that his final visits are still unsolidified and now under question.
Still "it's going to take a lot to unseat the in-state favorite" reads hallow when, for all we know, it MIGHT just take is a conversation with a charasmatic coach, a warm day, and some well-fitting sundresses to change what is presumably a difficult decision.
October 21st, 2013 at 3:53 PM ^
I would argue McDowell has every reason NOT to commit until the last possible moment. What is the benefit to getting it over with quicker than is needed? What is the benefit to him other than slightly fewer phone calls he can easily ignore?
If anything, an elite recruit like him (who won't be turned away by any school) should probably not sign a letter of intent at all and wait till fall to enroll in his preferred school. That would save him risking any potential pitfalls such as those that have occurred at PSU, OSU, Wisconsin, Michigan, etc. All these programs have seen their coaches depart controversially and unexpectedly. In some cases they took bowl eligibility with them.
October 21st, 2013 at 4:20 PM ^
Why would someone NOT commit at "the last possible moment"? Easy. They get sick of the endless phone calls, texts, mail, etc. They want to lock in a scholarship spot at an elite program where scholarships may run out when other guys commit earlier. Peace of mind knowing where they're going and how they will fit in. Lots of good reasons.
As for "not sign a letter of intent" at all, that just isn't logical. Aside from possibly not having a spot available, it might be a lot harder to get through admissions that way.
October 21st, 2013 at 5:28 PM ^
That kind of stuff comes with the territory and is probably good prep for being a pro athlete. I'm sure it's annoying, but manageable.
As for saving a spot. An elite athlete will get a spot saved for them if they express sincere interest. Maybe that doesn't go for every school, but for Michigan and McDowell it probably does.
Peace of mind -- I'd take the peace of mind that if a coaching change or NCAA bowl ban come down I have options over being locked into a situation.
As for not signing the LOI - it's been done before and discussed on Mgoblog several times. The LOI shouldn't affect admissions.
October 21st, 2013 at 7:02 PM ^
I think the biggest reason to commit early (if you know - a big "if") is to build momentum for the class and help bring in other elite recruits. That's where you're going to be playing, and you want to be as dominant as possible. Take Speight and Peppers out of the class until late and perhaps it finishes weaker.
That's a big "if," though. If he doesn't really know, of course he waits. IF he knows, I think he'd be better served trying to drive a mega-class.
October 21st, 2013 at 5:42 PM ^
I agree with you on #1 (that a lack of information leads to analysts citing one another and developing a baseless conventional wisdom). That actually worries me a bit with Hand. For awhile there was a conventional wisdom, based on who knows what, that he was focusing on Virginia Tech and Michigan (and maybe another school, I can't remember). Hand never corrected that except to say, "I haven't told anyone anything about my favorites." Now the conventional wisdom is that Michigan is the clear frontrunner, but again, I've never seen him say anything that makes that clear. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he ended up at one of the other schools even with everyone calling Hand to Michigan these days.
October 21st, 2013 at 6:38 PM ^
I think it's a little different with Hand. He hasn't said a ton, but enough to give a clear impression. What he has said seems to be indicative of a very clear direction and plan. The quotes and circumstantial evidence there paint a clearer picture than with MM, IMO.
Plus, with him you KNOW how much being the local school matters - not at all. With MM it's just guesswork. It may be a huge factor, it may not.
October 21st, 2013 at 3:54 PM ^
Any word on the visit of the Euro guy whose name I can't pronounce much less spell?
October 21st, 2013 at 3:56 PM ^
I got that much down.
I think he was supposed to be there for the Indiana game.
October 21st, 2013 at 9:25 PM ^
I have been trying to talk with him but it's crazy with him and his travels. I believe he en route or already back in his native Denmark as of today so it's going to be tough chatting with him.
October 22nd, 2013 at 1:53 PM ^
October 21st, 2013 at 4:19 PM ^
October 21st, 2013 at 7:25 PM ^
October 21st, 2013 at 7:20 PM ^
October 21st, 2013 at 7:28 PM ^
Outside of Alabama - who are they considering who still has air in their blimp? For Hand it's only Florida, who has lost plenty of their own air. Same for McDowell - it's not like the other teams he's considering have looked unbeatable themselves.
October 21st, 2013 at 7:47 PM ^
October 21st, 2013 at 9:21 PM ^
But OSU certainly wouldn't be leaving for sunnier weather down south. And LSU hasn't been lighting the world on fire either, so if our results have turned him off, LSU's probably have as well.
October 22nd, 2013 at 12:46 PM ^
That's the problem. Sam Webb was on this morning and said while he still thinks we're in a really good position for Hand it's not hardly a lock. And a lot of people down south say the same thing about Alabama that people are saying about Michigan up here. So "outside of Alabama" isn't the problem; it's Alabama.
October 21st, 2013 at 7:21 PM ^
October 21st, 2013 at 10:40 PM ^
About how many spots to we have left?
I've kind of forgotten about recruiting.
Hopefully someone asks recruiting questions during the pressers this week since it's a Bye.
October 22nd, 2013 at 12:15 PM ^
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