Best argument for Denard's Heisman candicacy I have seen yet. Mathlete for Blog-Heisman!

Mathlete!  Many thanks

What's OSU's expected W-L right now?

I would love for them to miss a bowl game this year, and then get a bowl ban for next year as their penalty for Tat-Gate

This is interesting.  Forgive my ignorance, but is there some sort of FAQ that explains all of the concepts you use?  Thanks.

+1

In particular, an explanation of what, e.g., "Michigan: +3, 28th (Baylor), 3rd (Wisconsin)" means would be awesome. My puny brain can make neither head nor tail of that gibber-jabber.

Or a link to the first place you used that stuff.

Thanks.

Unless I'm mistaken, the +3 is Mathlete's metric, 28th is national rank, Baylor is the top team nationally, we're third in conference and Wisconsin is tops in the Big Ten.

IIRC, that number is in PAN or Points Above Normal. +3 means that unit will earn our team a 3 point advantage more than the average team. Basically, if MSU is the average team, +3 means that we can expect a 3 point win. So, he calculates the PAN for all of the units and gets a general idea of what the spread would be. He also gives a 3 point favor to the home team. Each point is work 3% in probability. So, he starts at 50% and a 3 point favor puts the home team at 59%. Then he adds or subtracts 3% from that for each PAN and comes up with a percentage. He'd have to confirm this, but I'm pretty sure most of that is correct.

Zero PAN means you are completely average. For a BCS conference team like Michigan this typically means bottom third of the league. A three-points swing in PAN typically equates to an additional win or loss over the course of a season.

+7 will put you around the Top 25 on the season

+14 is typically Top Ten and potential BCS game

+21 is best in class and probably playing for a national championship

The top rated team I have is Florida 2008. They finished +13 on offense, +7 on defense and +3 in special teams. The top Big Ten team is Ohio 2005 at +19 (7/9/3). The top Michigan team is 2006 at +14 (4/6/4). They come in at 50th overall in the last 8 seasons.

He had a few good runs called back for holding penalties. Granted, looking at the replays, at least one of those holding penalties enabled the good run.

I'm trying to figure out how Illinois is better than UM. Both teams are 6-0, both have good offenses and good-ish defenses, both have pounded a few bad teams, both have squeaked by the one good team they have played but against the two opponents we have in common UM has won handily (24 vs. WMU and 18 vs. NW) while Illiniois has squeaked by both.

9% is for home field advantage, so he basically has them as even. Last week, we would have been a favorite on a neutral field.

Yea, they are about even. That extra 1% equates to about 1/3 PAN.

will likely be the key to the game.......

Time to see if those shotgun/I form differences are significant, perhaps?

do you have a better/more concise explanation of ANOVA than this (which I am too lazy to read)?

I'm loving the Mid-Week Metrics posts, but one thought regarding the best and worst plays:

Would it be possible to note the play number of each instead of (or in addition to) just ranking them 1 2 3?

I'm pretty sure I can find them in the chart, but it's still tought to tell since we don't know what play number they were. It would also be interesting to how the Win Percentage responds to the team's play calling after important plays.

How long does this take you Mathlete? This requires a ridiculous amount of data. There must be a streamlined way of accessing the data and crunching your numbers. Or you just don't sleep.

Impressed as always...

Other Big Ten:

64. Iowa

66. Purdue

67. Northwestern

94. Ohio

105. Indiana

107. Minnesota

ohio being more Minnesota than Purdue hurts my brain.

The real questions are.....

Will KState keep going undefeated (The JCB won on them last week!!!)

And, natch, will Northwestern cover the +6.5/7 at Iowa this week

I'll hit submit, wait and read.

Thanks, Mathlete

I have K-St as a pick-em this weekend vs Texas Tech and with 3-4 losses when the regular season is over.

You know I always hate on NW, Iowa with the cover.

I remember you predicting us winning 8 or 9 (I think), and obviously that was off a bit, but that's just N=1 and I'm not asking you to be Nostradamus here...I know that even good predictive models are only accurate 50+% of the time.

But I would like to know how well you predicted other Big 10 teams at the midseason point last year, so I can decide just how much Kool-Aid I should drink in advance of Saturday's game.  Thanks!

I love the best/worst three plays feature. Some of those Michigan win probabilities seem much, much too generous (most egregiously, OSU).

Id assume that the numbers are based on results, so dont account for returning starters or anything. So if Ohio State played at the exact same level they are now, and we played at the exact same level we are now, we would win roughly 92% of the time.

Just a thought for a future, off-season diary...

It would be cool for you to do preseason predictions on teams based on player PAN. Basically, if a player is +12 PAN for their team and they leave, replace them with a calculated average for a new starter in that position. Maybe the new starter has some playing time and already has a +2 PAN and you can extrapolate that. The other option would be to assign value to players based on recruiting ranking or some combination of the two (5* players with +2 PAN after their sophomore year average +5 PAN as a junior in their senior year).

Using this, you could estimate a team's PAN and do preseason rankings, estimate EOY records, etc. This is something that I've thought about for a while, but I don't have the means of doing it. You, on the other hand, already have all of the data and most of the formula done.