Michigan 53, Texas 50
[Marc-Gregor Campredon/MGoBlog]
"So you haven't seen us win many like that," said John Beilein to open his postgame presser. Truer statements have rarely been spoken.
Let's set aside, for a moment, the hideous nature of this game, and instead appreciate the future of Michigan basketball. That future is the big man pairing of Moe Wagner and DJ Wilson, which came up huge on both ends of the floor to pry a victory out of the jaws of defeat.
With 1:56 to play, Kerwin Roach gave Texas a 50-48 lead, and Michigan looked to be in a very tight spot when Zak Irvin's entry pass bounced out of bounds off Wagner's hands on the following possession. The Wolverines played suffocating defense to force an airball, and Wagner halved the margin with a free throw, then gave Michigan a 51-50 lead with a putback off a missed Irvin layup with 14 seconds to play.
With the game on the line, Texas first tried to run a play through Tevin Mack, who scored a game-high 18 points. Wilson stonewalled Mack as he tried to drive, then batted away a kickout pass to force the Longhorns to reset on an inbounds play. That play went to Eric Davis, who Wilson stuck with as he dribbled across the paint before seamlessly passing him off to Wagner, who emphatically blocked the potential game-winner. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman corralled the loose ball and put Michigan up three at the line; the ensuing midcourt prayer went unanswered.
A stylish finish (left) and the game-winning putback (right). [Campredon]
"I thought [Wagner] was the best player on the floor tonight," said Texas coach Shaka Smart.
There's plenty of evidence to back that up beyond the final sequence. Wagner paced the Wolverines with 15 points, made seven of his ten two-point attempts, pulled down five reounds, and added two assists, two steals, and a block. Beilein acknowledged that Wagner's defense has improved; he said, in fact, that he wanted to replace Wagner with Mark Donnal late in the game as a defensive substitution, but assistant Billy Donlon advised him not to do so—thankfully, he heeded Donlon's advice.
If Wagner wasn't Michigan's best player on the floor, it was Wilson. He required only seven shot equivalents to score his 13 points, led the team with six rebounds, and added two assists, two steals, and two blocks. He played great on-ball defense without getting into foul trouble.
The two bigs were Michigan's only effective offensive players this evening. Duncan Robinson was the only other Wolverine to finish in double figures, and he required 11 shots to score 12 points. Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin were a combined 4-for-17 from the field with ten points, seven assists, and eight turnovers. Other than the huge final rebound and subsequent free throws, MAAR was invisible, scoring all three of his points from the line.
Michigan will need much more offense to hang with UCLA on Saturday. The defense, built around the two bigs, allowed only 0.82 points per possession and forced 14 turnovers tonight; that is more than welcome to stay, even if it takes some time to get used to it.
December 6th, 2016 at 11:58 PM ^
December 7th, 2016 at 12:12 AM ^
Xavier Simpson and Ibi Watson must be unbelievably shitty to just play 3 combined minutes behind the absolutely horrible duo of Walton and Irving tonight. Or else Beilein is stretching to make some point.
December 7th, 2016 at 12:33 AM ^
December 7th, 2016 at 12:38 AM ^
December 7th, 2016 at 1:04 AM ^
Maybe it was autocorrect?
December 7th, 2016 at 9:45 AM ^
December 7th, 2016 at 8:20 AM ^
Where'd you get those moves?
You move with such grace.
Are you a member of the human race?
December 7th, 2016 at 10:04 AM ^
December 7th, 2016 at 1:42 AM ^
And they haven't looked very good, but you don't just yank your superior senior starters when they're cold and throw freshman out there just for fun. When your best hitters in baseball start a game 0-3 with three strikeouts, do you just bench them the next time up? No, you roll with what gives you the best chance to win.
December 7th, 2016 at 11:19 AM ^
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December 7th, 2016 at 9:29 AM ^
Or maybe they are just freshmen still in the process of learning the system?
December 7th, 2016 at 12:12 AM ^
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December 7th, 2016 at 12:12 AM ^
December 7th, 2016 at 12:14 AM ^
was horrible tonight. That's one area where Donnal is still better than Wagner and Wilson; hopefully the chemistry will improve as the season goes on.
December 7th, 2016 at 12:17 AM ^
Interesting that Rakhman was out there to win the game, but benched during the long period of turnovers by Irving and Walton. I'm not sure what Beilein's thinking, but this has to change.
At least Wagner played more tonight, along with Wilson. And they were the two best players for us.
December 7th, 2016 at 12:30 AM ^
He only had two fga's, both of which were jumpers. He's not a good shooter, so if he's not attacking the rim, he's an offensive liability.
December 7th, 2016 at 8:32 AM ^
December 7th, 2016 at 12:19 AM ^
So favored by 10, barely won.
UCLA is going to be a 30 pt + blowout.
Unbelievably, this is the worst Beilein team yet.
After the Orange Bowl, it's going to be another long wait for fall football camp.
December 7th, 2016 at 12:23 AM ^
December 7th, 2016 at 12:24 AM ^
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December 7th, 2016 at 1:09 AM ^
I mean honestly, not really.
On a piece by piece by basis we return every starter from last year. 2 of them are now on the bench, replaced by Sophomores Wilson and Wagner. Even if you think that none of our starters from last year improved, the fact that 2 are still on the roster but on the bench implies that the 2 new guys are better than the previous two starters. Basically, we have at least 7 guys equal to or better than ourt starting 5 last year.
The 8th spot on is pretty light and neither Simpson or Watson has been relevant, but both are freshman and have room to improve. The only losses form people who were healthy last year are Doyle/Chatman/Dawkins. None of those are really relevant. Dawkins/Chatman would be nice to have back for wing depth, but if Watson/Simpson improve that hole can be filled. So on a piece by piece basis, we are undoubtedly better.
We're also better looking at the non-conference results, to this point. We went 10-3 in the noncon last year, and odds are will again this year. Last year's 3 losses were all to major conference teams where we were run off the court and lost by double digits. This year we've lost to a top 25 South Carolina by double digits on the road and VT by 3 at home. That's not a great loss, but VT is solid enough that it's not a bad one either. We definitely should have won.
Last year our best wins in the noncon were close wins over this Texas team that lost in the first round of the NCAA tourney and a below .500 NC State squad. This year we've blown out Marquette and SMU, both which have decent shots of being tourney teams, on a neutral court as well as a win over Texas. Texas is only 4-4 to this point, but will get better as the year goes on as Dakich said tonight, and started 2-3 last year before being a 6 seed.
So assuming a UCLA loss, even if we get blown out, we still had a better noncon than last year. Also last year's team had Caris for the noncon. And all of this is being done under a new coaching staff/schematic, so as the year goes on we should get better.
We just held a talented (pre season top 25, recruits at a top tier level) P5 team to .82 PPP and 14 turnovers. That's a massive improvement over anything we could have done last year. That will only get better as the year goes on.
December 7th, 2016 at 9:41 AM ^
.... And the people said, AMEN.
So far this season, the team went from an unexpected top-15 team (by the eye test vs SMU and Marquette) to a borderline Bubble team (or by some negative Nancy's an NIT team at best).
I'm sorry, but all of those things happened. The truth is right now we are probably somewhere in the middle, but with Wagner looking better with each game (which is what I personally expected given this is his first real season and how young he is) and Wilson learning what he can and can't do, there is still potential for this team to really beat expectations.
The biggest problem is a good chunk of the fan base (who seems to be very passionate about this team) expects a Final Four team every year, no matter what the previous team looked like. And while I think we should be a Final Four contender most if not every year (I said "contender" which is different than "expectation" - we are not and will never be Kentucky), I'm content this season with a progressing team that hopefully cracks that 6-seed mark and contends for the Big 10 Championship. I think by Big 10 season, there's a good chance that this will be a very fun team to watch.
The truth of the matter - MAAR did not forget how to drive the ball, Irvin is not going to shoot 1-for all season long, and Wilson and Wagner are going to only get better as well - these are the two biggest improvements from last season, and the idea that these aren't major indicators of both a better team and a promising team are complete false. MAAR, Irvin, Duncan (who seems to actually have found a better role coming off the bench and is playing decent defense this season), and Walton will not shoot this bad all season. Our offense will improve. If the D can keep us in games where the O struggles like it has been so far, then we will not get blown out and have the potential to blow out other decent opponents like we did to Marquette and SMU.
Much much better team this year. I'm semi-excited to see where this goes, but then again I've never been the "doom and gloom" type.
December 7th, 2016 at 9:54 AM ^
biggest issue that I see is that the players with the most offensive potential are the players least likely to get the ball regularly. For the first time that I have been watching Michigan basketball under Beilein, his team is unbalanced toward the interior instead of having most of the threat come from the guards and wings. The catch is, the interior players in Beilein's system are an afterthought, if they end up with a look it is becase the guards or wings have created something that has opened up a look for them.
Wagner especially, and Wilson and even Donnal to some degree could be doing some pretty good work down low. A lineup featuring all of them for extended periods would create favorable matchups, particularly when most teams are featuring some form of small ball, and also because Wilson looks to be able to defend multiple positions.
In this situation, it really become noticeable how different and unconventional Beilein's offensive system is and why we good no looks from really elite bigs. There is simply no "feed the post" option in Beilein's offense. I think Beilein is a very good coach but I think he is very stubborn and not particularly versitile. Our big men need the ball, and they only really get it by accident.
December 7th, 2016 at 11:11 AM ^
I like your optimism. I love Beilein's teams but this one was me confused and a little frustrated and my patience is wearing a little thin. I don't know what to expect from what I've seen on the court thus far. MSG was amazing. Last two home games were blah.
I hope you're right and that this team is fun to watch come B1G season. I actually thought that last night they were not particularly fun to watch so I hope that changes.
But you really hit the nail on the head that this team is 'promising'. Beilein's teams are always better at the end of the season. This team is showing signs that they're better than last year. The defense has improved and the offense will (should) improve. The only thing is mindset and attitude. I think JB needs to get Harbaugh in there for a pep talk or something!
December 7th, 2016 at 6:24 PM ^
The optimism about Wagner and Wilson is fine. The problem for me, though, is we can't just presume that "our offense will improve," MAAR will be fine, etc. Similar assertions were made about Dawkins and Doyle last season; look how that turned out.
What the optimists sometime perceive as negative Nancyism is people just factoring in that some things won't go according to plan. Someone important is probably going to turn an ankle and miss a couple of weeks; someone else is going to have an extended slump. If you think Michigan is equipped to weather stuff like that in conference play, great, but it's understandable to have some doubts, given how thin this roster is already stretched.
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December 7th, 2016 at 9:43 AM ^
Still have the post-OSU tourettes apparently.
December 7th, 2016 at 8:44 AM ^
don't talk him out of it.
i say, go ahead and jump.
December 9th, 2016 at 12:01 AM ^
Wrong.
I've watched all his team. This team doesn't pass the stink test.
It's possible we only win 2 or 3 Big Ten games.
December 7th, 2016 at 1:58 AM ^
at least so far, it's our best team since 2014, according to kenpom, by a fairly wide margin even.
It is our best defensive team ever (again, so far) under Beillien, narrowly beating out the 2013 team full of NBA draft picks and the 2011 team that was gritty, grit, grit.
The offense has looked really bad in some games, and I assume that's what you're focused on since that's all most people understand: do we score the points? It's still not that bad overall, but again, not been good in a couple of our tougher games.
December 7th, 2016 at 12:39 AM ^
over the second half we're a comfortable tourney team. Usually teams do that. If that improvement doesn't happen then we're either a acid reflux bubble team or an NIT team. The team seems to be on the verge of taking off but at the same time teetering on the edge of falling apart. We need a definitive leader to step up and lead.
December 7th, 2016 at 12:59 AM ^
December 7th, 2016 at 1:04 AM ^
Winnin' ugli. Kind of strange to have two bigs leading the way to victory. Good to see Wagner having a good game, hope he keep it up.
December 7th, 2016 at 1:09 AM ^
One thing I've noticed watching our team this year is that as a whole we are a poor passing team with overall limited court vision. If Walton doesn't get a rebound and push we have no ability to run a fast break. There is not a player on this team who is currently a confident or talented outlet passer; we floundered so many opportunities to get up the court with numbers off of bad Texas misses. Then in our half court offense guys just seem tentative and nervous, even Walton, of making tougher passes. This is a pretty big issue considering the sets we run..
December 7th, 2016 at 1:32 AM ^
Tried to hit backdoor cutters that weren't open, Walton and Irvin kept driving baseline and not being able to hit the corner shooter - Dakich nailed it when he said you can't go baseline unless the layup or pass is a sure thing. It was ugly.
It seems like Walton and Irvin are worse this year than maybe ever. I don't get it.
December 7th, 2016 at 7:46 AM ^
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December 7th, 2016 at 9:55 PM ^
Nobody seems to use the bounce pass any more. Several of the passes that were deflected would have gotten through if they had been bounced.
December 7th, 2016 at 1:11 AM ^
Expecting a loss, but hoping UCLA gives a top notch effort so we can get some stuff on tape to correct. I don't know what you can learn playing average to below average competition. I think MSU probably knows a bit more about their team and where they need to improve based on the quality of their competition.
December 7th, 2016 at 2:15 AM ^
And the ones against VT and USC? We have plenty of things on tape that we need to work on. It's not like we're blowing out inferior competition.
But we've played four kenpom top 50 teams and Texas is 70th but they do have a lot of young talent so plenty of teams that are well above average for D1.
I worry that UCLA will be such a mismatch that it won't even be useful since few other teams will be able to do what they can do.
December 7th, 2016 at 1:13 AM ^
i never would have believed before the game that if zak irvin and muhammed ali abdur-rahkman each scored 3 Pts that we could have won the game. Donnel chipped in 0 pts as well. its amazing we won with just four players-primarily scoring. Its a game we need for a tournament resume.
I dont like our chances to stay within 15 at UCLA one of the best teams in the country.
Still we can make the tournament if we are +.500 in the Big 10 conference.
Dan Dakich seems to believe we will be much better later in the year.
DJ Wilson and Moe Wagner are important to us. We need not to bog down on offense we need to drive the lane more and go to the post more. Irvin and Walton need to lead the offense better.
December 7th, 2016 at 8:05 AM ^
December 7th, 2016 at 1:39 AM ^
December 7th, 2016 at 2:05 AM ^
We have no creators for the third year in a row. We need a guy like Darius Morris to just break people down on the dribble and distribute. Maybe X will be that guy in the future, although he won't be nearly as good a defender as Darius.
I agree that there's a better offense in there somewhere. Irvin, Walton and MAAR can't be this bad as upperclassmen, right?
Incredible defensive effort, though. Never have we had the length inside to challenge shots like we have in DJ and Moe.
December 7th, 2016 at 10:04 AM ^
better offense is an "inside-out" offense. I doubt very much we will see that though, unforunately.
December 7th, 2016 at 2:49 PM ^
Moe and DJ aren't back to the basket inside players. We shouldn't post anyone up on the block regularly. The "inside-out" has to come from the pick and roll but it's baffling that we can't run it effectively. That's always been the Beilien way to play "inside-out", or backdoor cutting. Run the pick and roll and if guys from the wing help on the roller, kick it to the shooters.
We just don't have anyone that's a threat to come off the pick and prod the lane. Irvin does it sporadically but he's still shaky as a slasher overall. Walton just has no ability to do it. MAAR can drive but he can't get his head up for a kick so he's all-or-nothing. Doesn't create for anyone else.
December 7th, 2016 at 7:05 PM ^
irvin had 0 of those slashing loopy nash layups that he usually has a few of, was weird, he didn't seem to try to shoot much at all.
December 7th, 2016 at 3:20 AM ^
December 7th, 2016 at 9:20 AM ^
December 7th, 2016 at 2:57 PM ^
this is a coaching this too. Coaches tend to try to control what they can control. So being in the right spots on defense is crucially important and that's what you can control as a coach - that's what you're teaching in practice every day. So when Moe doesn't do that, the first inclination from a coach, who is always trying to teach, is to take you out of the game, and explain what you should be doing. You also want to reward the guy that's doing what he should be doing more often than the other guy. There's a balance between that and just playing your best athletes all the time because if you play them no matter what, it's harder to get them to do the things you ask them to do to get better.
Interesting that Donlon had to tell Coach B to leave Wagner in last night. At some point (crunch time), you just have to live with the possible mistakes for the superior length and athleticism and wait til film and practice to teach.
December 7th, 2016 at 6:26 PM ^
As a coach, you sometimes have to balance winning now with winning later. If you destroy the incentives in your program for personal improvement for short term gain by playing guys who don't practice hard or don't pay attention or don't know what they're supposed to be doing (not saying Moe himself is any of these), you may get a win now, but light some wins on fire later when guys don't improve because you haven't made improvement a necessary condition for playing. It's a balancing act.
Anyway, definitely the right time to do that is *not* the very end of a one possession game with just a couple seconds on the clock. So glad JB listened to Coach Donlon.
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