MGoPodcast 9.14: We Forgot Our Hats

Submitted by Seth on December 11th, 2017 at 6:16 AM

1 hour and 52 minutes

“They’re going to need a bigger boat.  —Ace Anbender”

—Brian Cook

image

We are at the Residence Inn Ann Arbor Downtown, which has nine or ten conference rooms depending on if we count Wisconsin’s loss to Rutgers in basketball.

We Couldn’t Have One Without the Other

We can do this because people support us. You should support them too so they’ll want to do it again next year! The show is presented by UGP & The Bo Store, and if it wasn’t for Rishi and Ryan we’d be sighing to ourselves.

Our other sponsors are also key to all of this: HomeSure Lending, Peak Wealth Management, Ann Arbor Elder Law, the Residence Inn Ann Arbor Downtown, the University of Michigan Alumni Association, Michigan Law Grad,Human Element, Lantana Hummus and new this week introducing Ecotelligent Homes

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1. Hoops Ups and Downs

starts at 1:00

Jordan Poole is going to be a joy. Putting too much on Charles Mathews to carry the team on both ends. MAAR is in a bit of a slump offensively but he kicks it better than he used to. Wagner is heating back up. Robinson will come back. Is Livers in line for the midseason Beilein light to go on? Texas: we’re gonna feel sad about missing Mo Bamba; big chance to change the trajectory of the season. Down year in the Big Ten.

2. The Mississippi Trio

starts at 33:24

Shea Patterson: We think he’s more of a Tate Forcier, or ceiling of a Johnny Manziel minus the off-field issues. Didn’t see a five-star quarterback, definitely don’t think he’s going to be a shoe-in to replace Peters. It’ll be a competition, but Peters has got to be the favorite. Van Jefferson is the son of an NFL receiver, and pretty productive/polished, would be immediately helpful. Deontay Anderson is big and athletic, another bullet in the safety chamber. Greg Little, et al., not happening.

3. Ace’s Hockey Podcast, wsg David Nasternak

starts at 50:48

Who are these guys? They get three points off Minnesota, get swept by Wisconsin, split with MSU? Corsi doesn’t work on State because they’re too selective with their shots. Hughes doing way too much. Hope is Top 20 bubble-ish, .500 is still a massive upgrade. Better but still first-year Beilein-ish.

4. Inside the Crooked Blue Line wsg Steve Lorenz of 247Sports

starts at 107:35

Barrett is a take; what position should he play? JaMarr Chase is Michigan’s best shot with a Louisiana guy for a long time—you never know when a new coach at an SEC school gets in the mix though. Recruiting Tremble hard. Every OL is a tackle—Petit-Frere is a battle, Patterson had a great senior film. Hufanga: got his last visit. Gotta get Reese back on campus. 2019 shaping up to be great.

MUSIC:

  • “Bottoms Up ft. Nicki Minaj”—Trey Songz
  • “Cinco De Tomorrow”—Damien Jurado
  • “Mr. Steal Your Girl”—Trey Songz
  • “Across 110th Street”

THE USUAL LINKS

Comments

UcheWallyWally

December 11th, 2017 at 9:05 AM ^

til i have time to listen to the podcast later in the day to comment by how do you come to the conclusion that Peters should be the favorite?  Going just off the information we have on both young men i struggle to see what it is that you would expect Peters to do better than Shea?  Shea is much better athlete with a stronger and more accurate arm.  Again judging on the information thats available it would appear that Shea is much more dedicatied to the game and working to master his craft.  Looks an awful lot like the guy who just won the heisman.  Do you think Shea would have also sat behind a struggling O'Korn this past season? 

This isnt a blast on Peters ive always been a supporter of his and see a ton of potential in him but Patterson at this point looks to be a far superior qb imo.  Looking foward to an open comp and hoping it brings out the best in all parties is one thing but flat out saying " Peters has to be the favorite here"  seems to reek of unsubstantial bias.

Shea has been around and worked with Peters doing the high school circuit/aa games and i would bet him choosing to come here is somewhat predicated on that expereince giving him greatt confidence that he can beat this guy out.

ijohnb

December 11th, 2017 at 9:43 AM ^

is this thing that people are doing to convince themselves that this thing isn't exactly what it appears to be.  The idea that Peters is kind of getting pushed out, or at least pushed aside, is not a comfortable one for a lot of people, so an alternate narrative has been created that this may be a "depth move," etc. etc.  I think that it is what it is, and that if Shae Patterson decides to come here and enrolls in January, he is the overwhelming favorite (85%) to start against Notre Dame next September.  His college career is close to half over and, sanctions or not, I don't think it is reasonable to believe that he is going to transfer somewhere where he is not close to a lock to see the play. 

No, I am not particularly comfortable with it, I was looking forward to seeing Peters next year and something about this feels..... eh.   It feels as though we are moving closer and closer to Full-Saban, and that is both exciting and icky at once, but I have come to terms with the fact that when it is Game On and the ball is being kicked off in South Bend, I am not going to particularly care and I am just going to want to see touchdowns. 

Seth

December 11th, 2017 at 10:04 AM ^

This is based entirely on scouting. We've been watching Shea Patterson's tape, and we've seen Peters play, and our slack conversations have been going back and forth a bunch since Patterson popped up, and we're all seeing the same things. Brian's going to have a big post on this eventually so it hasn't hit the main page yet, but the short of it is Patterson shouldn't have been a 5-star, but he's fun to watch and if he wins the job he could do well in a spread-ish version of the offense. Closest Michigan comp is Tate Forcier. If he goes in right now however he's going to look more like O'Korn than anything else. 

ijohnb

December 11th, 2017 at 10:10 AM ^

case, it would make sense that one of the other guys was the primary target, because I don't buy the pitch "you're not as good as anybody thought, so come up to AA and test out the identical skill set that JOK just completely failed with last year." 

Fezzik

December 11th, 2017 at 10:18 AM ^

Whoaaa...saying Shea isn't a 5 star talent is one thing but to say he is John O'Korn if he steps on our football field right now is straight up asinine. Especially since last week the podcast talked about how our offense is allegedly easy to run and only disguised to look difficult. O'Korn has been the worst QB here since the Sheridan/Threet days and you think the top rated passer in the entire class of 2016 is at a similar dismal level if becomes a wolverine today?

ijohnb

December 11th, 2017 at 10:38 AM ^

that just doesn't seem to be a reasonable take.  If just experienced "depth" is what we need, it is a virtually certainty that the coaching staff could have reached out to a half-dozen pro-style grad transfer options to run second or third string as a "just in case" of multiple injuries, etc.  It defies logic that Patterson would be brought here to play in an "O'Korn level if he ever saw the field situation" that Harbaugh would have to change the offense to adapt to.  Huh?  I guess I will wait for Brian's long-form deal to see if it makes anymore sense then.

maizenblue92

December 11th, 2017 at 10:55 AM ^

What is unreasonable about what Seth said? He states that Patterson locks onto his first read and waits for them to come open and as a result misses his open second or third read. Ole Miss runs a simplistic spread offense with a lot of drag routes and screens so that issue is mitigated by offense design. Conversely, Michigan runs a very complex pro-style offense with 3, 5, and 7 step drops and option routes. It takes a lot of time to learn. Combining those two facts, it stands to reason that if Patterson were asked to play soon, he would look as lost as O'Korn. I personally believe Peters will win the job because he is as talented as Patterson and has a two year head start learning the system.

ijohnb

December 11th, 2017 at 11:05 AM ^

guess I think Patterson looks a lot better than you do, and just about every coach in the country looked at Patterson and offered him.  Consensus stud.  There are very few "misses" when it comes to #1 and #2 ranked positional players.  We run a pro-style offense, yes, but we are not splitting the atom, here.  Patterson is coming here for a reason, and it isn't to eat bench.

maizenblue92

December 11th, 2017 at 11:30 AM ^

I'm not saying he is not talented. Physically he is very good and that is what rankings are mostly based off of, but system wise, I can't think of a bigger shock to a player than going from Ole Miss' high school offense to Harbaugh's. I think too many people are star gazing instead of looking at the entire set of facts we are given. To assume he'd start or handicap him at 85% likely to start is ludicrous to me.

NowTameInThe603

December 11th, 2017 at 11:39 AM ^

Peters had 2 years to learn the offense but obviously hasnt or he would have been QB2 and the playbook wouldnt have been so vanilla when he did play. So its possible Patterson can actually pick it up better OR harbaugh can tweak the offense to make it easier for Patterson.

The system thing is overblown because Peters is still learning himself.

The Oracle

December 11th, 2017 at 11:18 AM ^

Tate Forcier? John O'Korn comparisons? WTF? The guys apparently didn't see the same video I did. I love Mgoblog, but these comments remind of reading here that Wilton Speight was going to be to top QB in the Big 10 this season and "then have an NFL decision to make."

ST3

December 11th, 2017 at 11:29 AM ^

Did you watch a highlights video, or a complete Ole Miss game, or a few Ole Miss games? Because what I like about MGoBlog is that the guys will go deeper than just highlights videos. I bet Brian UFRs a game or two and discusses his DSR. I haven't seen a minute of Shea in action, so I'm reserving judgment for now.

UcheWallyWally

December 11th, 2017 at 11:31 AM ^

While this site creates an amazing fan experience for all of us it does come with what at times feels like a bit of propaganda for the program.  Pushing a narritive to achieve a certain result or mind set.  Maybe if enough people start pushing the " Peters is the fav to start and Shea is overated" narrative than Peters will be less likely to transfer? 

ijohnb

December 11th, 2017 at 11:56 AM ^

It is to preserve their own perception of what the Michigan football program is supposed to be, and leveraging it against the "meritocracy" concept for cover when Patterson inevitably starts.  People want to have it both ways.  At first, I really was on the "we need to stick with Peters, he has earned the right, earned the chance, it is his turn, etc."  All I needed  was the weekend and some beers and now I'm full "TOUCHDOWN PATTERSON!"

It could also be to preserve the Board's collective psyche if Patterson does not come here.  If Peters is the favorite anyway, then if Patterson does decide to go elsewhere we get to fall back on the "Michigan cooled on him" narrative. 

 

corundum

December 11th, 2017 at 10:29 AM ^

Top 5 prospect and an offer list including:

Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, LSU, ND, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, USC, and VT.

He played at IMG and participated in the Army All American Bowl, which means he was scouted to the max.

I trust your analysis, but every platform ranked him as a 5* and most schools recruited him as such.

 

Edit: Do you think O'Korn could have posted a 34/51 346 yds 2 TD 0 int stat line on the Auburn defense this season?

UcheWallyWally

December 11th, 2017 at 10:52 AM ^

what is it that brian or yourself see that Peters does better than Shea? We all know you guys fawned over him in person and his ability to "change ball speeds"  but i really dont see what valuable skill Peters has that is superior to Shea's.  I would bet that by the tme the team is in South Bend that Shea even has a greater command of the offense than Peters as he seems like an ultra competitive high work ethic athlete.  Love your site but the OKorn comment really comes off as lazy an unaware of just how terrible OKorn played at UM.

A2toGVSU

December 11th, 2017 at 11:24 AM ^

I know their rankings differ.

I just said your decision to shit on Forcier's ability to play football on a football field is a stupid revisionist take.

EDIT: I just reread this subthread and realized you probably were just disagreeing with the Forcier comparison instead of insinuating that you don't want another Tate Forcier on the roster. I was in a bad mood this morning, and I apologize for my previous dickish comments.

ijohnb

December 11th, 2017 at 9:49 AM ^

our basketball team has a super-retro vibe to it, no question.  Eli Brooks needs a trim though.  I see what everybody else is going for but he just needs to hit the local barbershop.  I know, haircut is an annoying thing for everybody on their "to do list," but come on, at some point you just have to make that move.

DrMantisToboggan

December 11th, 2017 at 10:36 AM ^

As Seth already said, these things are not mutually exclusive. Peters isn't going to be battling Johnny Manziel, he is going to be battling Shea Patterson now. 

 

The guys are saying exactly what I was getting lit on fire for on the board a week or so ago, which is: Peters will obviously be the favorite to start come 2018. Peters knows the playbook, he has experience in the system. He will have played 5 games for us before spring practice and played well in all of those games (I'm projecting here that he will have a good game against USC). Peters will have vastly more chemistry with all of his receivers, save for Van Jefferson if he transfers in. Peters' best friend on the team is our leading receiver (in receptions not yards) this year. Also, Peters' ceiling might be just as high, if not higher than Patterson's. Assuming both progress as QB's at the same rate this offseason (since they are the same age), and given that both would have been ranked the same in the conference last year in terms of passer rating, the smart bet would be on the incumbent here. For Patterson, he will be working with 1. learning one of the most complex playbooks in college football 2. adapting to the new system/coaches 3. building chemistry with his new teammates 4. healing a torn PCL (I know that he's been rehabing it for a few months now, but spring practice will be the first time he plays ball since he tore it). 

 

I'm not claiming that Peters is vastly better than Patterson, he might not even be slightly better than Patterson, but if I had to put a probabilities on who will be the starting QB in 2018, I would say it's like 51% Peters, 45% Patterson, 4% McCaffrey. You just have to bet on the healthy, talented QB who has been here and knows the system. Patterson is not so much more talented than Peters to make up for the advantages that Peters has.

 

 

ijohnb

December 11th, 2017 at 10:51 AM ^

in one weeks time things have gone from "Oh my god, run around, #1 ranked QB, legitimately playoff contender NOW, huge turning point, need this guy CAN'T WAIT" to "meh, this Patterson guy, coming off an injury, shortish, kind of a bad fit, well, I guess we'll see." 

I think even Brian's original take on Patterson implied that this was a game-changer for the QB situation.  This is an odd sort of about-face and I'm completely not buying it.

DrMantisToboggan

December 11th, 2017 at 11:59 AM ^

Is this comment just generally directed to folks out in the world? Because I was never the guy you described in part one of your comment. My take on Patterson was always that I don't think he's much better than Peters (if better at all) and I don't think it's a given that he will beat Peters out. I made that point on here weeks before this podcast was recorded. Now, if he's the backup, that's an insane talent for a backup and it's an excellent move. If Peters is the backup (and wisely stays around to be the backup instead of transferring), same thing. In that regard, it is a great move. But my take has always been that I do not think Shea raises the ceiling of play at the position significantly.

ijohnb

December 11th, 2017 at 12:17 PM ^

know that has been your take, and yes, I guess this response was kind of directed toward a lot of posters, generally, instead of you specifically.  I am just saying that certain people are having to twist themselves into knots in all kinds of different directions for this to make sense to them.

I believe the simplest explanation is the correct one.  Ole Miss just went Ole Miss and it is costing them a big time QB.  Michigan is going after that big time QB hard because they want him to come to Michigan and ball out, now. 

Coaches and scouts knew what kind and style of QB that Patterson was when he ranked the #1 or #2 QB in the country coming out of high school.  Nothing has changed.  Ole Miss hasn't been good, but Patterson has.  While healthy, he lived up to his billing.  If he comes here I think he is the presumptive starter next year.

NowTameInThe603

December 11th, 2017 at 10:50 AM ^

Peters played no one, handed the ball off 5X as much as he threw it and managed a limited playbook! That half against Wisconsin wasn't as great as some people are believing it to be. Again, HE WAS 3RD ON THE DEPTH CHART BEHIND JOK!

 

Shea Patterson wouldnt transfer here unless he felt really good about starting. GET OVER IT.

Hoke the Joke

December 11th, 2017 at 9:48 AM ^

Is it just me or does ceiling of Manziel without the off-field issues sound awesome?  

For as much of a punchline he became in the NFL he did some insane stuff in college.

DrMantisToboggan

December 11th, 2017 at 10:39 AM ^

I agree. With a taste of being the starting QB and having success, I think Peters has a great bowl game, wins the battle with Patterson, and has a great year next year. Patterson will make it close, and will provide an excellent backup (if he stays after losing the battle, which I assume he would), but I think all he will do is push Peters to be even better. 

JBE

December 11th, 2017 at 10:50 AM ^

I also expect a strong bowl game from Peters, which should cement him as a favorite. The light is starting to go on for him - just look at his pocket awareness, his progressions, from his first game to Wisconisn.  He's just scratching the surface, and the coaches know that, and are designing the offense to help him along. Once he gets going he's an NFL guy, and Patterson, to me, is a only a very good college guy, who also has some work to do to even reach that level. But we shall see. 

ijohnb

December 11th, 2017 at 10:57 AM ^

Patterson, a just a "very good college guy" is coming to Michigan so he can be that "very good college guy" behind a NFL guy and never play?  So he can not even be that "very good college guy" in college because he can't get on the field?  And he is doing this intentionally when he can transfer anywhere in the country with likely immediate eligibility?  What in the actual hell? Not trying to be a jerk, but wha???

JBE

December 11th, 2017 at 1:49 PM ^

What I’m saying is if Peters turns the big corner, and it appears he’s well on his way, Patterson will be nothing but depth, a contingency plan. Patterson may have to transfer again or stick it out, and he could very well regret his choice.

DrMantisToboggan

December 11th, 2017 at 12:09 PM ^

One play does not negate a demonstrated skill. Peters showed good pocket awareness from the jump in the Rutgers game - the play where he broke the pocket when he felt the DE and hit Isaac on the sideline stands out. Besides, on the play against Wisconsin where Peters was knocked out, he had already thrown the ball to Evans, the open receiver on the play. He didn't not see the guy coming, he stood in the pocket and made the throw knowing he was about to get hit. It wasn't an instance of bad pocket awareness at all, if anything it was a display of toughness and discipline. 

 

If we are stooping down to blaming players for their injuries, I suggest you check out the status of Shea Patterson's knee. Should've been more aware of how his knee would bend on that play.