MGoPodcast 14.23: At Least Our Degrees Are Intact
1 hour and 25 minutes
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1. The State of the Basketball Program (1)
starts at 1:00
This segment is usually about the latest basketball game but then Michigan scored one basket against Rutgers in 19 minutes so nope. Some people are calling to fire Juwan Howard and those people should probably tap the brakes. Everyone is disappointed but let's talk about it, there was 10 times less hydrogen at the 4 spot this year. It's tough to build a roster these days and one good player at the 4 probably would have put this team into the tournament, admissions really brought this team down. This team did improve defensively throughout the season, even Jett Howard (but That Rutgers Play did still happen). What does the roster even look like next year?
[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]
2. The State of the Basketball Program (2)
starts at 35:14
Further roster discussion, this team really needs Kobe Bufkin back next year. What about Jace Howard? This team was extremely unlucky, does that revert to the mean next year? The last two minutes of a game aren't that different from the rest of the game. Is this team just young and nervous at the end of games?
3. Hockey vs Ohio State
starts at 58:05
Brian predicted Michigan would get cranked by Ohio State, they did not get cranked! David argues that, despite going 1-3 against Ohio State the rest of the season, Michigan's play improved throughout the four games. This team has the ability to go and dominate some very good teams but then also play some terrible hockey. Credit to Wisconsin last week for playing hard for their season against Michigan. Michigan didn't take a major!!
4. Hockey vs Ohio State and the NCAA Tournament
starts at 1:12:20
Ohio State was getting run out of Yost in just the first 11 minutes, they challenged a goal just to take a long timeout. The Minnesota vs Michigan State game, uhh... looked like a Minnesota vs Michigan State game. Michigan looks to be locked into a 1 seed. Let's talk potential matchups.
MUSIC:
- "Still Alive (From Portal)"—The 8-Bit Big Band
- "Hockey Monkey"—The Zambonis, James Kochalka
- "The Pot & Kettle"—The Rumjacks
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:
- Helpful iTunes subscribe link
- General podcast feed link
- Direct download link
- What's with the theme music
There's normal vacuum and then there's the super vacuum that we currently find ourselves in, both as a solar system and a basketball program.
I will probably bring myself to listen on my commute today....but not sure I want the negativity. I am concerned about the statement "what about Jace Howard?". Not sure what that context is. I really hope it isn't lobbying for him to play more because he's not a good player.
I haven’t listened yet, but I assumed it meant Jett Howard.
No, they specifically discussed Jace's role next year, after they spent time talking about how bad Jett was (at times).
so you decided to login & comment just to shit on a player before even listening to the podcast?
Fair point.....I should have been more direct with what I was saying. Frankly, I love Jace on this team. He has a great attitude and works his butt off. He's exactly the type of deep bench guy you want. What I was really shitting on was the hypothetical lobbying by the MGoCrew for MORE of Jace because he's not a high-major player.
I made it about 40 minutes into the pod so far and I turned it off when I got to work - right when I heard the guys crap on Jett Howard. Shocked that Dave went after so many non-basketball things with this team - off court, effort, attitude, etc. I'm always leery of attacking players for that stuff. Did we do it to Kobe last year when he was unplayably bad?
The team was too young and their "old" players besides Hunter were TWill and Jace. Jace is a bench-mob guy and TWill is stuck without a true position and is best as a 15 minute spark off the bench. Like they said, we needed one more B10 quality player and had 5 chances.
I REALLY liked Brian's point about the ball screen game going away because of young guards/wings. Hunter didn't get any easy baskets - that was why our offense tanked.
March 13th, 2023 at 10:41 AM ^
Idk - I seem to recall Livers, Duncan, Iggy, Matthews, GR3 all played the "4" and handled it just fine - none of them were at their "true position". TW3 is a talented player - develop him and use him properly.
March 13th, 2023 at 11:36 PM ^
"TW3 is a talented player"........he's been here 3 years and is unplayable...
What do you think he does well? heck, even mediocre?
March 14th, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^
If Dave wants to talk about the off the court stuff, that's fine. But don't do it if you're not going to give any detail to your listeners. Especially if you're not the "basketball" guy on the site who we know has at least some insight into the team.
If you know something that you're going to use to do a post-season critique, it's only fair to ask that you share those details with your audience. Otherwise you're just someone calling into a radio show to give your opinion.
March 13th, 2023 at 11:14 AM ^
Haven't listened, but was thinking to myself, would Michigan have been better off giving Tschetter's minutes to Jace? He would presumably at least know the sets on both sides of the floor better and have better awarness.
March 13th, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
I think the key was to play Joey Baker and Tarris Reed the max minutes you can. Baker couldve changed our season with his 3 point shooting but not sitting for 30 minutes a game.
Yeah down the stretch, Tschetter was playing 16 mpg, Reed 18, Baker 16.5 and Jace 6.
Yeah you could give Reed and Baker more minutes. Just not sure what Tschetter is giving you that Jace couldnt. Neither are athletic, or provide offense, but you'd think Jace would understand the offense and defense better and that alone would help.
What criteria do Analytic folks use to measure 'luck?" Beyond injuries,highly improbable shots made at end of shot or game clock,and skewed results in one possession games.
I think the analytics of "luck" are mostly just the close games should even out. I don't think anyone has a way to track lucky shots or scenarios in game. Michigan was definitely unlucky this year, but they were also not a good team because they played in too many close games. I also think the youth, especially 1-2-3, had a lot to do with it. Those are the guys making your late game decisions with the ball. Hunter took some late game shots but he's dependent on those guys to get him the ball.
Against IU the closing lineup was three freshman, the youngest player on the team, and Hunter. That's not a recipe for winning close games......yet. if they stick around? Watch out!
We needed more from TWill and Baker this year. Or we needed Diabate to stay. Or Shannon to come. Penn St played their way into the dance doen the stretch with the oldest team in basketball. We played ourselves out with the youngest.
Agree..Watching BTT I noticed for the first time the Big 10 had quite a few Veteran squads,including a team that currently has only 2 more wins than Michigan..* Hint: East Landfill.
March 13th, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^
I've been arguing this issue with some people in one of my Michigan sports text groups.
It is not excuse-making to say that this was one of the youngest teams in college basketball...and mostly at the critical guard and small forward positions. A player like Hunter relies on the guards and playmakers to get him the ball in advantageous positions; he can't do it all on his own.
I did a spot check of the top teams in the Big Ten and nationally. On most of the top teams, at least four of the top six players in terms of minutes played and/or points scored were juniors or seniors. Michigan? Not so much.
This Michigan team with Llew and Shannon would finish the Big Ten regular season in second place. Adding steady veteran leadership on the court around Dug, Jett and Kobe would make all the difference.
If somehow the entire team comes back (not likely), this is a top-ten team. The talent is there. The necessary experience is not.
This team almost finished 2nd in conference as it was. Their efficiency margin was 2nd in the conference (unless it changed in the last couple games). All depends who comes back. If this team managed to bring everyone back except Baker it'd absolutely be a good candidate for a final four. I don't think that's likely but I do think there's a better chance of it than usual just because Jett (or his parents) may want to stay another year. Kobe could play himself into a lottery pick next year. Hunter already said that probably wasn't his last game at Crisler (presumably not because he was thinking of the NIT). Hopefully they keep 2 of those 3.
March 13th, 2023 at 10:34 AM ^
Duke seemed to do fairly well with 5 freshmen playing major minutes.
March 13th, 2023 at 11:40 AM ^
Duke is the exception to the rule at this point regarding a young team...both in terms of the team's overall success...and the fact that the five freshman to whom you are referring were all ranked in the top 30 of their class. Three were ranked in the top five! Pretty much the equivalent of the Fab Five.
Yes and I agree but the point was "freshmen cannot handle late game pressure"....bear in mind that both Michigan and Duke have the same amount of composite top 100 players on their rosters....seven....Duke is a #5 seed....Michigan is NIT bound......Purdue's starting backcourt are both freshmen, not in the top 100 mind you.......my argument is no way, with the talent that we have, freshmen included, should we not have been one of our eight B10 teams to make the tourney.....no one can argue that.
If you can't see the difference between Duke's "top 100" players and Michigan's, I don't know what to tell you.
They've got three who were ranked in the top 5...and another two who were ranked in the top 30.
You do not have to tell me anything.....I can deal with the loses to MSU, Iowa and Purdue every so often but we lost to Central Michigan, Penn State, Rutgers, Illinois, an awful Wisconsin team and Indiana twice....I guess in your mind we do not have enough talent to beat those loaded teams.
March 13th, 2023 at 11:40 AM ^
Sure, and 3 years ago both Duke and Kentucky missed the postseason while fielding some of the youngest teams in the country.
UNC was one of the most experienced and talented teams in the country, at least on paper, and missed the tourney while PSU, the most experienced team but not supremely talented, got in with room to spare. Basketball is weird and not always logical but in general more experienced teams do better than less experienced ones.
Yes, basketball is weird but no one can argue with me that with the talent on our roster should we not have made the NCAA tourney....seven Top 100 players on our roster, the same amount as Duke and I believe only one less than Gonzaga.
I mean, UNC didn't make the tournament and they had even more talent and, just as importantly, more experienced players. I agree they should have made the tournament but they played poorly early on, didn't get some breaks during the offseason as well as in-season due to injuries and late-come finishes, and couldn't catch a break.
Exactly - having quality upperclassmen does not always translate to wins.....it's about developing your players, holding them accountable and utilizing their skills in the proper ways.....UNC should be even more embarrassed than us for missing the tournament with that roster.
I think it's the "should" word that's critical here. The implication seems to be that someone must be to blame for them not making the tournament. Fact is, while most teams with the talent this team has would make the tournament, not all of them would, and sometimes things don't work out.
If your point is, "Juwan is to blame for this team not making the tournament," fair enough. But we certainly can "argue with [you]" about that. The question is, is this one of those times where things just didn't work out -- which happens in basketball (see, again, UNC) -- or a sign that Juwan is overmatched.
Sometimes, players don't mesh, key players get injured or transfer away, and players don't make key shots at key times (Baker against Illinois). And, yes, sometimes the decisions coaches make don't work out. But even that doesn't mean the coaches are bad -- it means the decisions they made didn't work out. When all three of those things happen in one season, it may be one of those years where things just don't work out.
It sucks. It's disappointing. But I'm pretty confident we won't have all THREE of those things happen again next year, and we'll be significantly better. :-)
For the record - I am rooting for Juwan to be successful - I was equally critical of Beilein when the 2015 team did not make the NCAA tourney - not having Caris explains some of the failure but not all of it. IMO, Beilein did not adjust to teams defending his motion offense much more aggressively. He finally mixed in a variance of pick-n-roll sets which I believe partially led to their success on the tail-end of his tenure. The things I am seeing are little mistakes - spacing issues, defensive footwork, pick-n-roll strategies, positioning on the floor, discipline, communication. This whole situation reminds me very much of when Charlie Weis came from the NFL to Notre Dame and made a crucial mistake by saying they would have a "tactical schematic" advantage over opponents because of his perceived advanced knowledge.....I get the sense that Juwan may have had the same professional mindset....humble pie can sometimes be a good thing.
March 13th, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
There's a concept called Pythagorean Win Percentage which is your expected win percentage based on your overall points scored compared to points allowed.
If your record exceeds that expected win percentage you are deemed lucky, if it falls short you are considered unlucky.
Say for instance, you lost 10 games each by a score of 100 to 99. You would have scored 990 points and allowed 1000. Your pythagorean win percentage would be something like 40%, ie with those points scored and points allowed you'd be expected to win about 4 out of 10 games. Since you won zero, you were "unlucky" by 4 four wins.
Alex had to hold the coaches accountable while Brian and Seth tried to write the season off to injuries, missed transfers, and early player exits. It's coaching when you routinely blow late leads and can't win a close game.
This is absolutely correct. Crunch time is when coaching becomes paramount. How many times did Michigan lose when late game plays they drew up in the huddle totally fell apart and there was no Plan B to execute? How many times did they just heave up prayers as the clock expired? Players who have played well all game don't suddenly become incompetent with 60 seconds to go. Juwan was simply being outcoached.
March 13th, 2023 at 10:27 AM ^
This came up after Indiana and I pushed back against it then so I'll copy-paste it now as well.
Against Illinois and Indiana these are the last 2-ish minutes for each team during regulation:
- Illinois - at 2:06 remaining is up 70-65:
- Ill - 1:42 missed jumper
- UM - 1:23 Dickinson made jumper
- Ill - 1:02 turnover
- UM - :43 Howard 3 pointer
- Ill - :22 missed layup/Dickinson block
- UM - :00 Dickinson missed jumper
- Indiana - at 2:03 remaining is up 66-65
- UM - 1:46 Bufkin hits 2 FTs
- IU - 1:32 missed FT
- UM - 1:15 - Dickinson hits jumper
- IU - :59 - Jalen Hood-Schifino hits 3 pointer
- UM - :29 - Dickinson TO
- IU - :25 - missed layup
- UM - :00 Dickinson missed 3
So over the past 4 minutes combined of those two games Michigan came back from down a collective 6 points to tie both games, outscoring both teams 9-3 and consistently making big defensive plays.
I'm not absolving Howard of some of his decisions but "Juwan was simply outcoached" is lazy analysis. People got mad about the Joey Baker 3 to tie the game against Illinois, as if drawing up a play where you got your 2nd-best shooter a wide open 3 was a bad play. It's a young team and, yeah, when times get tight sometimes people make bad decisions. In the IU game it wasn't Howard who coached Bufkin to not take a final shot and instead try to throw it to Dickinson with his back turned.
And the team did close out close games later in the year - they just did it too well so we forget. They were in dogfights with MSU and Rutgers late and then just beat those teams comfortably. So much of late-game analysis comes down to results vs. playcalls/coaching. PSU won two straight games to end the year on absolute bullshit, including a game where they shot a deeply-covered 3 against Maryland, it missed badly, a PSU player threw himself into 3 Maryland rebounders and knocked the ball off to the one PSU player standing nearby for the winning score. And then PSU has a chance to beat Purdue at the end of the BTT final and the "play" they drew up looked incredibly disjointed and resulted in a travel.
Michigan absolutely struggled with late-situations and there's a wealth of blame to pass around for it. But trying to assign it to coaching alone, or even a majority, is reductive. It's youth, it's coaching, it's bad luck, it's everything.
March 13th, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
well, by my count we went 5-3 in games decided by 6 points or fewer last season.
i guess juwan howard and his staff just "suddenly" forgot how to coach this year.
March 13th, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
Pretty sure this was Dave. Although, in your defense, they sound almost identical.
March 13th, 2023 at 10:33 AM ^
dammit their voices get me every time
March 13th, 2023 at 12:13 PM ^
The thing with assigning blame to the coaching for losing close games is that we really didn't have that problem before this season. If it were an annual thing - like with Nebraska football under Scott Frost - then it's easy to find the culprit. But given that we managed to close out a lot of games last year and couldn't this year, I think a lot of it comes down to personnel.
Dug McDaniel gave this team far more than anyone could have expected, but he still wasn't quite ready to be a dominant on-the-ball guy. In close games, you typically expect your point guard to either create his own shot or create something for his teammates. Dug wasn't quite ready for that.
It was Dave not Alex and Dave talked more than anyone. I like Dave, but he should not speak more than Seth or Brian on any podcast (unless it's more than Seth on a hockey cast).
I have updated my 2023 MGoBlog music playlists with the songs from this episode - here are the links:
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Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/us/playlist/2023-mgoblog-music/pl.u-11z0ofMkqvL
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Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/2a7Hw0FHtgqw351LwW8wPz?si=8690043244a24050
Go Blue! NIT baby! Beat Ohio... I mean Toledo!
How could you guys forget about Jalen Rose for tallest PG?
If I recall correctly the exact words were Brian saying when was the last time a Michigan team had a tall point guard and I said the Fab Five.
March 13th, 2023 at 10:25 PM ^
Ah well the correct answer would have been Darius Morris. But good try.
March 13th, 2023 at 10:48 AM ^
Blaming the disappointing losses on coaching is pretty dumb, considering the youthfulness of the team. Also, anyone wanting Howard fired after this year based on the results on the court is completely forgetting the string of consecutive sweet sixteens (started under beilein) that any team in the country would be happy with. If you put a Shannon jr. on this team they win 5-6 more games without that bad loss to cmu and are easily in the tournament. That would have nothing to do with coaching, meaning it was purely bad luck for Howard to have to field such a young team this year. From a fans perspective, I’d love to see both Kobe and Jett return (to help up their draft stock towards the lottery picks). If that were to happen, Michigan might very well be a top ten team next year (assuming HD stays too).
March 13th, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^
These are all fair points. But you also have to consider, last year was not successful, outside of 2 pretty good wins in the tourney.
Frankly, Howard has had 3 pretty meh regular seasons & 1 really great regular season. He's also 1-3 in the Big Ten tourney
I think there's a great chance he turns it around this offseason but he needs to do it. Next season is pretty pivotal IMHO.
March 13th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
Exactly this. The last two seasons Michigan is 36-30. Their longest win streak? 3 games. Seriously. The last two seasons the longest win streak is 3 games.
This is with last season having 2 SR guards and a top 50 FR backup (Frankie), now this season is with an upperclassman Dickinson and honestly its more of the exact same. Michigan will not have that type of experience/talent at the two guard spots like they did in 2021-2022 for another 2+ years. Does Juwan have enough time to get there?
The problem like Brian has mentioned is the continued wheel of attrition and lack of continuity on Juwan's teams. I don't think Jett going pro affects this team but Bufkin leaving? That's critical to any improvement on this team.
2023-2024 starting 5 if both go pro: Dug, Llewelyn, portal, portal, Hunter? Bench Contributors: Tarris and portal/unproven freshmen?
If that is the case, unless they strike gold in the portal does that really feel like an upper tier Big Ten team? I'm skeptical if anything really changes and we're caught riding the wheel.
Come on. 2 senior PGs is misleading. These weren't guys who had played for us for 3 years. Both were coming from lower leagues too. Howard's record isn't that good, but the teams have clearly improved over the course of the year. Those tourney runs weren't just luck. As Matt D showed here, there was a lot to be desired in PG play making. If we get 2 of Jett, Hunter, and Kobe back, and assuming everyone else is back besides Baker, I expect this team to make a big leap. Come on Jett do your dad a solid.
I disagree with your descriptions of all four seasons. Was last year a meh season? Yes I'll grant you that; two five star studs underperformed and a late season surge, after numerous non-conference pummelings, snuck them into the tourney where they went on a nice run. But how was the first season meh? They won multiple marquee non-conference matchups, including winning a damn tournament, and they only struggled in the Big Ten play because Livers missed a bunch of games with injuries. Sure when you just say "oh they went 10-10 and finished 8th" you can make the claim it was meh, but looking at the totality and the context of that season and I think you have to conclude that it was actually a pretty good season. And if that season isn't cut off at the Big Ten tourney, that team likely nabs a few wins, climbs up a seed line from projected 6 to projected 5, and can make some noise in the tournament. If you still want to grade that as a meh season, go ahead, but it's an incomplete picture.
March 13th, 2023 at 12:44 PM ^
Reminds me a lot of Harbaugh's covid year. Now, part of Harbaugh's turnaround was a deep look in the mirror and changing up his coaching approach. But a huge part of it that couldn't be overlooked was the impact that covid had on the roster (which was also young and inexperienced), and the number of significant injuries that accumulated that year.
Juwan didn't have the pandemic holding the team down, but he did have one of the youngest teams in the nation, a huge roster hole that was out of his hands, and a key injury to one of the starters. Think about that! Two of the planned starters for the year were lost due to an admissions fuck up and a season-ending injury early in the season. In a year where he had very limited experience to start with. It's remarkable that Juwan managed to get the team to compete as well as it did in Big Ten play. That is not to say his coaching was perfect by any means, but all the people who want to throw the coach out after one underwhelming year are just not realistic.
Now we can excuse one bad year due to roster issues, but if roster issues persist over multiple years then you start to think Juwan isn't good at roster management in this fucked up college basketball landscape. It's still too early to tell though - some years you just have a lot of youth and injuries.
March 13th, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
There's probably no statistical crunch gene because the players who don't give a rip are taking the shots while the knee shakers are passing it to the guys who don't give a rip.
March 13th, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^
Jeez between admissions, refs and luck this team was on the verge eh?
At some point this site will realize every team in the country goes through adversity...some get better from it..others collapse and use it as excuses. Having Terrance Shannon on this team would not have solved any of our glaring issues. HD, Bufkin and Jett were as good or better than any teams top 3 players in the Big 10. Somehow some of those teams had other players step up and they made the tournament.
March 13th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
Do you honestly think having Shannon wouldn't have addressed such issues as "wing defense", "to-the-hoop scoring", "rebounding", or "crunch time scoring"? Illinois's best two players were, by far, the two guys they imported in the off-season.
Shannon rebounded at a better rate than Jett Howard, shot more FTs than anyone on the team, and was one of the best defenders in the conference. He made all conference team. But sure, no way that guy addresses any of the issues UM had this year. Strong analysis.
March 13th, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^
You're right Bronx...if we had Shannon this team would have hustled, played defense, ran a fluent offense, made smart decisions and show up every day with 100% effort all the way to the final four. Go grab another kool-aid pal.
BTW most people probably had a better rebound rate than Jett Howard, give me a break.
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