MGoPodcast 14.15: The TCU Vikings Comment Count

Seth December 28th, 2022 at 7:00 AM

1 hour and 50 minutes

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1. TCU Preview: Offense

starts at 1:00

Don't buy the "They ain't played nobody" line; TCU's schedule was the same, also Michigan beat Ohio State, a Playoff team, 45-23 on the road. Spread offense with Duggan pulling out magic. Has a deep ball down, has some good deep threats in huge receivers Quentin Johnson, the star, TE Jared Wiley who's 6-7, and Savion Williams who's 6-5. Plus a standard slot and a good running back. The OL doesn't get much push; they're all the same 6-5/300 too-stiff-for-tackle guard, give up pass rush, but don't let Duggan loose. Man up Johnson on Johnston or play lots of zone? Seth thinks man; Brian thinks zone.

[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]

2. TCU Preview: Defense

starts at 35:20

It's the 404 Tite, with ISU's three-safety three-high look that temps you into passing. Positionless defense is tough on reads but breakable if you plow through it; Michigan might want to go many-TEs and push the gap out to the edge versus smaller force defenders. DL want to take on doubles, Michigan moves those kinds of DTs. LBs are not the most athletic sorts; would be great if Edwards's hand is healthy enough to make him a passing game threat again.

3. TCU Preview: Special Teams and Heuristics

starts at 1:02:33

Their slot is also a dangerous returner; just kick it out of the endzone. Meh Aussie punter, very good kicker who rarely misses and has a career long of 54. Michigan hopes Brad Robbins was hurt when their punt efficiency went off a cliff later in the season. Their season was Vikings-esque, pulling out all of the games that could have swung either way, benefiting from things like Texas not hitting any open deep shots. Discussion on the meta of Playoff competition, TCU being at the lower end of teams to make it. 2015 MSU was the outlier; every other Playoff team is at least good. Ryan Day scenarios.

4. Hot Takes and Hoops vs North Carolina

starts at 1:22:46

Hard to beat UNC when your best player is a no-show. The quadruple technical was some weenie-ass officiating, Seth's still mad at Hunter for doing that when fouls on either center are the game. Good to see Bufkin turning into a real star, good to see Jett can shoot over any wing. What to do now? Kinda have to roll with what they got and hope TW and HD can pick up their games.

MUSIC:

  • "Surfing in Iceland"—Goth Babe
  • "New Beginning"—Automatic
  • "Ain't That Enough"—The Teenage Fan Club
  • “Across 110th Street”

THE USUAL LINKS:

It'd be like if Sean Clifford was liked by Penn State fans.

Comments

andyburdick72

December 28th, 2022 at 8:36 AM ^

I have updated both my MGoBlog Apple Music and Spotify playlists with the songs from this episode:

I'll be in Atlanta on NYE for the Peach Bow (wife is a UGA grad), but starting at 4 pm, all eyes will be glued to ESPN for this game; LFG!!

Ferg0dsakes

December 28th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^

I do have concerns with TCU's OTs, but not on their own merit.  I'm a bit concerned that Morris & Co. will get the Gary/Wino/Uche/Ojob treatment and the zebras will keep their hankies in their pockets, giving Duggan extra one-apples to work with and lanes to run through.

Seth

December 29th, 2022 at 2:15 PM ^

We couldn't get to *everything* but one thing I wanted to get in and didn't was that TCU likes to play 4-wide with two slots, and if they do I think Michigan could match that by pulling Turner inside and using Johnson/Green outside. BUT there's been talk of RJ Moten playing linebacker, which could also mean they plan to go with him in Dime situations.

Tom Pickle

December 28th, 2022 at 12:39 PM ^

I was also somewhat surprised by the Purple Theory assertion that Michigan ain't played nobody. I also found it interesting that they were far more dismissive of Michigan's offense and the success they would be able to have and were not as sure TCU's offense would be able to handle Michigan's defense. I have pretty much the exact opposite belief looking at all the stats. I don't think TCU has much of a chance of slowing down Michigan's offense, but I am more worried about TCU being able to hit big plays.

The way I'm looking at this game though is through the lens of previous CFP semi-final games. If Michigan is a real title contender I think they will treat TCU the way most upstart teams that have made the playoff have been treated. I do think TCU will be able to score some, but maybe something like 34-17 where the game isn't really in doubt.

ShadowStorm33

December 28th, 2022 at 1:07 PM ^

Michigan is the best team TCU will have played (duh), but more importantly, both our offense and defense will be the best they've seen all year. TCU is either the best or second-best team we'll have played (depending on how you compare them to OSU), with either the best or second-best offense (again vs. OSU), but their defense ranges from 7th to 10th best on our schedule depending on the metric you're looking at.

They should have some concerns about their offense against our D. Our defense is on another level from the best they've faced, including one that shut them down (Texas) and another that shut them down for 5/8 quarters over two games (K-St.). Our DL vs. their OL looks like a big mismatch. (To be fair, we have concerns about Duggan's scrambling and fade ability.) But their confidence against our offense if baffling. They weren't particularly stout against much worse offenses, and we paved much better defenses; the most likely outcome is that their defense gets run over and/or bombed pretty badly (with the game coming down to whether or not their offense can keep up)...

ShadowStorm33

December 28th, 2022 at 3:49 PM ^

Ha! Not just Penn St. though; we also paved OSU (top 10 defense before The Game, still top 15), and had a pretty solid showing against Iowa (top 5 defense), especially considering we were content to play a low variance, grinding game.

What's probably more disrespectful to Penn St. is the repeated talk of how TCU is a better PSU (I'm guilty of that as well). Yes, TCU's offense (top 10) is a better version of PSU's (top 20), but TCU's defense (top, uh, 60) is no comparison to PSU's (top 10). Those teams are probably closer than most realize, and other than maybe the Frames factor, I'm not sure PSU would have done much worse playing TCU's schedule (I'm fairly confident TCU would have been no better than 10-2 against PSU's schedule, and I wouldn't be surprised if they had dropped another game or two as well)...

bronxblue

December 28th, 2022 at 3:46 PM ^

Yeah, I listened to their offense podcast and it was weird hearing people talk about Michigan when it's super-clear they didn't watch many, if any, of the games outside of maybe parts of OSU.  Like, they claim up-front that the only two "living, breathing" defenses UM played were Illinois and Iowa, which ignores both PSU and OSU who, per SP+ were also top-15 units.  They seemed to take a lot of their confidence from beating up on Iowa St., which was more a team further solidifying my "Matt Campbell is a B+ coach who can't maintain success" take that I had coming into 2021. 

I agree that TCU is an upstart who UM should be able to beat; I think they'll have some big plays mixed in but it's a team that went 5-1 in 1-score games with a dynamite offense and a suspect defense and if that sounds like MSU from 2021 you aren't wrong.  How they got there is different but it was weird hearing Parker, normally a pretty cogent stats guy, say stuff like UM did this bully ball routine against inferior competition while TCU needed escapes against truly mediocre teams like Baylor and Okie St.      

Communist Football

December 28th, 2022 at 1:30 PM ^

Really important for Michigan not to get too aggressive on punt blocking. TCU didn't block Texas' punt blockers, and the end result was tons of roughing the kicker penalties. As Harbaugh said with OSU, treat stops like gold, and let the offense get on the field.

uminks

December 28th, 2022 at 5:38 PM ^

I could see this game being a high scoring game with each team scoring TDs but in the 2nd half, TCU will find it hard going in the Red Zone while UM continues to score TDs. That's why I like my 31-52 score with M on top.

LabattsBleu

December 28th, 2022 at 6:58 PM ^

Also FEI defensive rankings, there were 5 B1G teams in the top 8.. Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Penn State and OSU

TCU fans don't reference the advanced stats, relying instead on 'eyeball rankings'

This isn't to diminish TCU; they legitimately pose some concerns with the deep ball and Duggan running...and explosion plays as Brian notes. Their slot WR is very fast and the one TE is also a threat... The make plays; I expect to see something along the lines of the Purdue game

The great thing about the playoffs is one doesn't need to speculate - eventually all the questions will be answered on the field.

AlbanyBlue

December 29th, 2022 at 12:30 PM ^

RE: David's "hawt taek"...

If Michigan beats TCU, no, I will not, could not, not ever, root for OSU. I want them to lose 100-0.

Even if that means we have to face UGA again, that's fine. No rooting for OSU -- ever.

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