Mailbag: Stats Love Us, Saban Manball Canary, Substitution Style, Cole Absence, Playcalling Approach Comment Count

Brian

computers2[1]

On S&P+

S&P+

Number 3? For the statistically challenged, what do you think of this methodology?

S&P+ is as good as any other ranking system that drills into play-by-play data to get a clearer picture of a football game than scoring margin alone can give you. Bill Connelly, the guy behind it, also runs Football Study Hall. He does a lot of smart things. S&P+ is a valuable look at who is playing the best.

Unfortunately, it can only go on the data that exists and in early-season college football that's always going to be sparse. Meanwhile some folks will dispute lot of the assumptions S&P+ makes, primarily that turnovers are super random and not major factors in the rankings. It also values all games evenly in ways that humans aren't always big fans of. Utah is significantly below Michigan because:

  • the Michigan-Utah game was about even down to down and turned on turnovers
  • Utah did not significantly outgain Utah State or Fresno State
  • Michigan yardage-murdered everyone other than Utah

S&P+ is not trying to be a descriptive ranking (ie: these teams have had the best season so far) but rather a predictive one (ie: if these teams were to meet who would win). Michigan has performed like an elite team so far according to S&P+, and I can see why it thinks that.

FEI, the other major ranking that takes more than score into account*, is more skeptical than S&P, but I think that's because that still bakes some preseason assumptions into the ranking.

*[AFAIK Sagarin only uses the final score.]

Can we manball it when even Saban flees to spread-type behavior?

It seems that Nick Saban has recently admitted that his current style is a bit outdated, that he needs to adjust to the recent trends in college football. It is pretty obvious that teams like OSU, Oregon, TCU, Baylor, even BGSU are seeing a lot of success by utilizing both up-tempo and featuring quick guys in space.

Can you speak to offensive philosophies such as Alabama and Stanford and how this may or may not be a concern for us going forward? I understand that "smashmouth" football is not mutually exclusive with up-tempo and quick guys in space. But it just seems to me that Harbaugh's style doesn't seem to emphasize either of these current successful trends.

Thanks,
UNCWolverine

Given how the season has gone so far I actually think Michigan might occasionally run into the opposite problem. They've been absolutely lights out against six consecutive spread offenses. (Not very good spread offenses, sure, but Michigan isn't holding these guys to 20 points and high-fiving afterwards. They are crushing opponents.) Meanwhile the Harbauffense is winning plays against teams that aren't always comfortable putting heavy D packages on the field or filling all the gaps Harbaugh creates.

Saban's move to a more spread and tempo oriented offense is a reaction to the many times his defense has been blown out of the water by those kind of attacks over the past few years. When the Tide get to line up against one of the remaining "pro style" offenses, the results are generally ugly. Ask Georgia.

Michigan might not have that issue. Durkin seems very comfortable devising ways to neutralize spreads. I will have trepidation when and if Michigan does come up against… well, pretty much just Alabama.

On and off and on and off

Brian or Ace-

Do you know, or, if not, could you ask someone, why Dan Liesman (I think that is who it is, at least according to my Mini-Program; it is #54) comes out a few yards onto the field between plays almost every time when we are on defense. It is as if he is not sure whether he is going in or not, but since he NEVER goes in, it is obviously for some other reason. Is there some rule about substitutions that this relates to, are we trying to confuse the opposition, or does he just like to pretend he might be going in? There has to be a reason, and I would think most MGoBloggers would love to hear it. Thanks

David

We've seen Ross and Gant also do this. It's just a substitution strategy. After the play Michigan sends guys who may or may not be in the defensive package, depending on what the offense does, to about the numbers. (Any farther could get you an illegal substitution penalty.)

If opponents send in two or more blocky-catchy types, the linebacker will stay in and a DB will be removed. Since every team Michigan has played almost never uses two or more blocky-catchy types the LB heads back to the sideline almost all the time.

Liesman specifically is interesting because Michigan usually has Ross available; I haven't noticed if sometimes he is poking his head on the field when Michigan's already in a 4-3. That would imply Michigan has a heavy package in case someone tries to manball them.

Someone was confused.

Mr. Hammond

I wanted you to know how much I appreciate and enjoy your broadcasts of Notre Dame football.  Your kind deference to Our Lady's University is a beautiful expression of the christian love that infuses your broadcast persona.  Thank you so much!  You are a good man.

May God bless you and yours.

Andrew V.

I did flip over to the Notre Dame-UMass game when it was interesting for a minute and heard Hammond's dulcet tones. He's missed.

I assume that guy who made the Tom Hammond tie is in Congress by now.

[After THE JUMP: early drives allowed, Harbaugh's playcalling system, a search for superclusters.]

Why do we give up that shaky drive early?

Hey Brian,

After watching Mattison defenses for the last couple years, it seems to me that a lot of times teams come out and march down the field on the first drive. (Almost like a Rich Rod first drive, which it seemed like always got points).  Anyway, the opposing team gets points, we make adjustments.
Is this first drive scoring normal on other teams?

Do you see any reason for this? I assume everyone makes adjustments on defense (except GERG of course) but do you see Durkin playing a more basic defense the first drive?

And lastly, if this is a trend shouldn't he ramp up the first drive defense?

Thanks and go blue,
Ron K.

I couldn't Google up anything to confirm or deny the idea that early drives are generally more efficient than others, but there's an obvious reason why that might be true: teams enter a game with various things they've practiced but haven't shown on film, and the first time they run them they hit big chunk plays. We're certainly seeing that with Michigan's offense, which has frequently had first-half drives on which the defense gets torn up by new plays.

I think there's something real and universal there. The other part of it is probably bad luck. Oregon State's opening drive featured a clear uncalled hold and a pinpoint perfect pass from a guy who doesn't specialize in those. BYU's early drive saw Michigan get edged a couple times, as did NW's early FG attempt drive. In both cases they saw what was happening and adjusted.

As far as adjustments. I don't think you can adjust to stuff you haven't seen, and a lot of these drives are not even approaching the endzone.

    Where did Cole go?

Any news on the severity of the injury to Brian Cole?  Based on the OSU and UNLV games I figured it was just a matter of time until we blocked a punt.  It didn't seem that likely against BYU and I figured it was probably because one of our best pure athletes were injured.

I don't have any insight there. I don't know if we'll get any even if he's out a long time. Michigan may not want to bring him back particularly quickly if they don't think he's needed. Cole is eligible for a medical redshirt.

One makes a lot of sense. As a recruit Cole was an extremely raw extraordinarily athlete, so he's the kind of guy you want to give yourself that fifth year option with. Michigan has to balance that with how much use they could get out of them this year. Is Cole more likely to block a punt than, say, Drake Johnson? By how much? Is he likely to contribute at WR? The answers to those questions are probably such that the redshirt is a better option.

"Good shit Jedd" after the two-pointer against Maryland

How does the playcalling work?

I recently listen to a podcast where they mentioned some weird tendencies of Harbaugh's teams, particularly the 49ers, to split up their offensive play calling among a number of coaches.

Is this something he's continued at Michigan? Whatever he's doing is working great so no complaints, but I'd be interested to hear his perspective as to why he does this when others don't, at least to my knowledge.

Koby

Since that podcast was from February and Niners Nation had not yet accepted the fact that their team was run by a nincompoop I'm guessing the context here was frustration at an offense that fell off significantly during the last NFL season. Niners fans complained a lot about delay of game penalties and burned timeouts, apparently not without reason.

Harbaugh has continued that at Michigan:

"It's unique (compared) to what I've done before," Fisch said Wednesday. "But it's something I would always do from now on."

Instead of designating one person to serve as the team's chief offensive play caller, or limit the discussion to himself and one other coach, Harbaugh keeps an open dialogue going with his entire offensive staff from snap-to-snap on the sidelines during game days.

Some coaching staffs allow the offensive coordinator to call plays on his own, with the head coach serving as the only voice who has veto power. At other places, it's the head coach calling the plays, and taking only suggestions from the rest of the group.

For Harbaugh -- at every stop he's made -- the conversation about what to run during any given situation involves everyone.

Jedd Fisch's "passing game coordinator" title is more than frippery.

We haven't heard much from Harbaugh himself about his philosophy here, but it makes sense. A supremely confident leader is going to take all available advice in order to make the best decision, and reinforce subordinates' ability to both contribute and disagree. (Bo legendarily started fights between his staffers in order to pierce the veil of politeness and get everyone's actual opinion.) Pinging staffers in case he's forgotten something or they see something he doesn't no doubt helps Michigan find those RPS+3 plays.

And so far the apparent downside with the 49ers has not reared its head. Michigan's taken its share of "whoops" timeouts, but seemingly no more than an average team. The payoff has been clear.

Comparing a truly collaborative system with Dave Brandon's management approach is an exercise left to the reader.

Can you think of something bigger than a galaxy?

Is there a better example of the coaching upgrade than AJ Williams' improved play?

Andrew

In terms of player development, probably not. The competitors there would be Stribling/Clark, Ben Braden, and maybe tentatively the running backs. (They had a very good day on Saturday.) Braden is a strong candidate but even late last year he'd improved a reasonable amount, and OL often take a long time to round into form. Williams

If we're expanding the search to include things other than "this player is better now" I would submit the Chesson kickoff return, he general offensive playcalling, and the acquisition of Jake Rudock and Blake O'Neill.

I cannot pick between these things. They're all pretty great. I like 2015.

Comments

Wolverine In Iowa

October 13th, 2015 at 11:48 AM ^

I can't argue about AJ Williams being possibly the single player most benefitting from good coaching, but the unit that is better by far over last year is the DL.  They are the best in the country, and that is a a credit to Mattison and Durkin, considering we were in slight panic mode after the loss of Mone.

ST3

October 13th, 2015 at 1:02 PM ^

is the play of the defensive backs. They have ~2x as many BrUps/game as last year and already have 7 INTs to last year's 5 total.

Special teams have improved dramatically as well. I'd like to see someone quantify the improvement from last year, because they sure pass the eyeball test this year, unlike last year.

pearlw

October 13th, 2015 at 5:49 PM ^

Agree - you Have to give some credit to old staff for developing a walkon (Ryan Glasgow) into the player he is now. Everyone laughed when Hoke claimed a part in developing NFL talents like Taylor Lewan since Lewan only played for him the last 3 of his 5 years at Michigan. Lets not be entirely hypocritical and not give any credit to previous staff for development of those playing well. I think this shows the skill development was there across the entire defense.




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M-Dog

October 14th, 2015 at 8:13 PM ^

DO YOU SEE WHAT'S GOING ON HERE?!!  DO YOU SEE WHATS GOING ON HERE?!!

We're arguing over what unit has improved the most, and they are pretty much all candidates.

Whereas last year we could not see development and improvement anywhere, this year we are seeing it everywhere.

I wonder what's changed from last year to this year?  Hmmm?

MaizeNBlue_Kzoo

October 13th, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^

I cast an enthusiastic vote for 2015, too. I also remember reading about seemingly scads of non-coach additions to the film breakdown team. I'd love to hear an update on that and how they contribute to the process of making this team so much more prepared.

JeepinBen

October 13th, 2015 at 11:51 AM ^

Wasn't enough to be a mailbag question, but have you ever seen those FB Dive plays out of what looked like a Victory formation? 2 FBs right behind the line, RB at normal depth. The last thing I was expecing was a FB Dive.

LSA91

October 13th, 2015 at 11:52 AM ^

I'm not a football expert, so maybe there's an obvious answer, but I've always wondered why few if any teams can seem to run Harball successfully. Does it require playing talent other teams can't get? Does it require Harbaugh? Or do some teams run it well?

JeepinBen

October 13th, 2015 at 12:10 PM ^

I think that it comes back to "what makes a play successful" or, alternatively, "how defenses stop a play".

Under Hoke, who was running "Power" football you saw a lot of the same basic plays - inside Zone, Power, Outside Zone, etc. (Harbaugh has thrown lots more wrinkles in, part of why he succeeds) and with that "Manball" we saw lots of plays that failed when 1 guy on offense blew his assignment. If 1 person missed a block on IZ, it's a 1 yard gain or a TFL.

Contrast that with "spread" philosophy. In the spread the goal is typically to get playmakers in space. In those cases you only need 1 guy on DEFENSE to mess up and it's a huge gain and/or TD. For example - the QB Oh Noes - Denard looks like he's running, reads a safety. Safety guesses run, and it's a pop pass for a TD. Or another spread play, a bubble screen - only 1 WR has to make his block, now it's a 1-on-1 matchup for the ballcarrier to have a big gain. It doesn't matter what your OL do.

I think it can be thought of similarly to basketball. Are ALL the pieces moving and trying to score points (manball/Beilein/Warriors) or are you going to get a preferable 1-on-1 matchup (spread/posting up) and let your athlete try to beat theirs 1 on 1?

BornInAA

October 13th, 2015 at 11:53 AM ^

Saban going to spread means the spread has reached it's apex. 

If everyone runs the spread, then everyone know how to defend it, then a new scheme comes along (like Harbaughs) and defenses are like WTF!?!

Just another cycle.

I remember when the wishbone was hot and Bo installed it for a while.

M-Dog

October 14th, 2015 at 8:21 PM ^

And Bo barely ever actually ran it.  He would line up in the wishbome formation in '86 after Oklahoma won the NC with it in '85, but he would seldom run the true wishbone triple option of handoff to RB / QB keep / QB option pitch.

I was always a little dissapointed.  I wanted to see some Jamile Holieway Wishbone Wizard magic from Michigan, but I never really did.  It was usually just a decoy formation.

Mattinboots

October 13th, 2015 at 11:59 AM ^

Just re-read Ender's Game for about the 20th time and this collaboration approach is very similar to why Ender dominated everything. He trusted his exceptionally bright lieutenants to execute his exceptionally bright overall strategy. Clearly this is the only management style that works.




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ProfMurdoc

October 13th, 2015 at 1:57 PM ^

There is supreme confidence in having that conversation. Harbaugh is simply confident he has the guys that are the smartest, work hardest, want it most, whatever actual fact is behind the cliches. We're better and we can do better. With all these great people around the obvious choice is to use their collective strengths, not limiting yourself to the traditional. 

There is no fear in a team this confident in its ability. When football isn't hard work, it's more likely to be fun than terrifying. 

Football looks like it's called by generals and executed by soldiers. But Jim Harbaugh and his team are at their job, playing a game. One their pretty amazing at.  

Finding something you do really well is an accomplishment. When that thing is playing football, it's sublime. 

Maize in NC

October 13th, 2015 at 12:00 PM ^

Good leaders surround themselves with high talent individuals.  Harbaugh did that with his staff and now is implementing it with the playcalling philosophy.  Numerous smart people are better than one nincompoop (someone tell the Lions). So, yeah, HARBAUGH!

kmedved

October 13th, 2015 at 12:26 PM ^

Sagarin hasn't said lately what his ratings are based on, but you can generate something with approximately a 0.98 R^2 using just points scored/points allowed. My guess is the 0.02 remaining is a question of the "decay" factor he's using to weigh previous games less (something like 0.95^[weeks ago]).

It's pretty safe to say he's just using points.

(To compare, S&P+ and FEI give about a 0.8 R^2 with pure points)

alum96

October 13th, 2015 at 12:12 PM ^

Still early but if we see RJS succeed the rest of the year as a starter he'd also go into the AJ Williams category.  A guy who barely played to being a successful player AT A DIFFERENT position. 

I am fascinated by the group decision thing in play calling insofar there is really so little time in between snaps - just seems impossible that more than 2-3 people could really have much of a say before you run out of time.  But it's working and interesting.

mGrowOld

October 13th, 2015 at 12:47 PM ^

That was my thought exactly.  Given the limitations of time and the fact that not everyone can talk and be heard on a headset at the same time I wonder exactly how this works.   I just sat through a 2 hour conference call where two people tried to talk at the same time a bunch resulting in nobody being heard.  And trying to do this in 30 seconds or less seems very challenging indeed.

I don't doubt they do it but there HAS to be some additional nuances to this concept we're not seeing.

dragonchild

October 13th, 2015 at 12:23 PM ^

"Oops" might be a bit harsh; it sometimes takes a while for the offense to set up but we know there's a lot going on.  I'm OK with an "oops" timeout because the coaches are finding a way to murderdeathkill the opponent.  That's much better than taking a timeout because the ST coach was counting his players and ran out of fingers.

west2

October 13th, 2015 at 12:32 PM ^

or whatever you want to call Harbaugh's offense.  It seems he was pretty successful in the pros against much better athletes and defenses with his system.  Saban has largely beaten teams because he has superior talent through the myriad of ways he has procured the best 4-5 star players (a topic in itself).  As eveyone knows saban was not particularly successful when he didnt have this advantage in the pros and had to rely more on schemes and develping players towards those schemes.  IMO Harbaugh's system has a couple of advantages going forward.  First few teams see this much and are probably going to struggle against it.  Also he still creates situations with players in space in essence spreading out the D with fakes and precision blocks.  Whatever he is doing its working and as each year goes by with an elevation of talent his system will become harder to defense I would think.  Following what everyone else does doesnt always guarantee success.  Doing something really well and building on that can be really successful.  

west2

October 13th, 2015 at 2:08 PM ^

and not diminishing anything Saban has done.  It is interesting though that the Tide's last 2 seasons ended in unexpected losses to teams that have spread his defense out or used tempo to create mismatches and not allow Saban to situationaly substitute.   Also lets remember that Harbaugh was successful in college and the pros although I know you could say he didnt win the top prize at either level.  And my response to that is...not yet.

UNCWolverine

October 13th, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^

Great response Brian. Thank you. I think I wrote that email a few weeks ago and have since sort of seen the light based on how much better we've played on O. I'm damn near all in on our use of FB and TEs in so many different sets. Screw the spread, but give me a bit of pace from time to time.

Go Blue

Hardware Sushi

October 13th, 2015 at 1:03 PM ^

Do not misconstrue what I'm about to say as calling Saban a bad coach...

I've always thought Saban's success has been predominantly dependent upon talent and that his 'coaching' is completely overrated. That doesn't mean I think he's bad; look no further than last year to see that talent alone doesn't lead to wins.

But looking at his career:

  • Ejected as fast as possible from MSU because he knew he couldn't outrecruit OSU, Michigan, PSU, and at the time, also maybe WIsconsin and Illinois
  • Went to LSU where he finally did what Jerry Dinardo couldn't and keep the Louisiana talent in-state. Oversigned. Won title. (Les Miles, another pro-style guy but not from the Saban coaching tree, also won a title with his players, so it's not necessarily like it was Saban's schemes that were doing the trick)
  • Jumped to Miami. Sucked real bad because the NFL has talent parity. Lies about leaving then gets smart and realizes he can't win with that parity.
  • Jumped to Alabama. Has unlimited resources to scout, identify, and recruit talent, as well as being centered between Atlanta, Florida, and Louisiana/Mississippi, the most talent-rich 500-mile radius. Oversigns, medical redshirts. Wins titles. Argument for Saban's coaching ability is take down of Urban at Florida but I don't know how much of that was Saban and how much was Florida's self-destruction.
  • Recently: SEC teams finally get some decent spread offenses going AND Alabama has to play someone outside of the SEC in order to get to the title game. Losses ensue.

Nick Saban is clearly a great recruiter and identifier of talent, but I've never thought of him as an outstanding X and Os coach and I think that is what is actually showing up against these spread teams. Unless he has a clear talent advantage, he has trouble. Repeatedly seeing this demonstrates he's not a 'great' schematic coach.

I'd like to think that Harbaugh and Durkin (and whoever our next defensive coordinator is after Durkin inevitably leaves) have shown an ability to scheme to their players' strengths, rather than rely entirely on a talent advantage. We'll see.