Mailbag: OL, OL, and Also OL, Third Quarter Two Point Conversion, Wide Receiver Precision, Fancystat Preferences
[Bryan Fuller]
Struggle. There is only struggle. We can ask the how and why of it but the pale fact remains that all around us is struggle. Eat At Arby's.
Brian -
I've put Drevno on my personal hot-seat given the continued struggles with the OL both on the field and in recruiting, not to mention the hiring of Frey. With that being said, however, isn't this year different than the last two in the way they're struggling?I feel like our OL struggled mostly with run-blocking the past two years (pulling, ID'ing, push, leverage, etc.) while this year we're struggling primarily in pass-blocking (stunts, twists, blitzes, etc.).
Would that indicate it is more of a player-related issue or schematic issue this year rather than an OL coaching issue?
Adam
These questions are always in the "I don't really know" zone since they require insight into the inner workings of the program I'm not privy to. Michigan faces twists, stunts, and blitzes whether they run or pass, and the ground game has been a struggle.
There's a clear personnel hole at right tackle, where Ulizio just got yanked for Juwann Bushell-Beatty, a redshirt junior who still managed to lose his job to Ulizio. The results have been ugly so far, far uglier than last year even after Ben Braden was forced to kick out to LT:
5 Sacks, 2 hits, 6 hurries given up on the season. We still haven't charged anyone else on the OL with >1 (QBs collectively at 5).
— Josh Liskiewitz (@PFF_Josh) October 9, 2017
That's Ulizio through five games, turning a motley collection of defensive ends into Brandon Graham Voltron. Ulizio's struggled less on the ground but has not exactly been good. That is a definite player-related issue, and a Grant Newsome-related issue. But as I noted in the game column Michigan has a severe issue at tackle in part because Michigan airballed at the spot in their first recruiting class.
Michigan also attempted a change in philosophy. It seem like the addition of Greg Frey caused them to go heavy inside zone, trading surprise for execution. They did not execute, so they just gave up their surprise. Michigan did go back to something that looked more like last year's diverse run game against MSU. Despite the uninspiring numbers it's been their easiest run performance of the season to look at so far in UFR. I would say there is a schematic issue caused by that change in philosophy, which may or may not end up sticking. Survey says: probably not.
[After THE JUMP: will you be more likely to click if I say the Star Force Alfisode B trailer is behind the link? It's got a funny lookin' animal in it!]
Where is the roster patch on the OL?
So one of the most promising things that happened when Harbaugh arrived was him grabbing O’Korn, Rudock and O’Neill. Safe to say he looked at the roster, saw the holes, and moved immediately to address it. Highly competent roster management.
Given that, and the fact that offensive line has so many more scholarships dedicated to it overall, how have we ended up in this place? It’s not like there haven’t been tackles available to grab. It’s baffling how the same guy who snagged an asset at punter failed to somehow in 3 years have a viable right tackle. I understand the Newsome injury was extreme bad luck, but injuries happen and roughly 15-20% of your roster is offensive line. Frankly, that’s the position group most likely to be able to withstand an injury.
I’m baffled.
Wolvrine32
If you're talking about 'croots, I agree with you. Transfer OL, however, have a dismal track record. Remember Chad Lindsay, the Alabama transfer who we were pining for who ended up at Ohio State? He failed to win a starting job, got hurt in fall camp, and quit the team midseason. Clemson transfer Jake Fruhmorgen was at Florida for a cup of coffee, quit the team, retired, and is now at Baylor. USC transfer Khaliel Rodgers also retired briefly after moving to UNC; a few weeks later he's getting a shot at a starting job only because two starters are out on a horrible team. Not coincidentally, UNC's horrible offense was starting UF grad transfer C Cam Dillard. Closer to home, David Dawson didn't make it past June at Iowa State. I bet a dollar that Texas transfer Jean Delance also flames out.
Michigan poked around the transfer market for OL and came back empty; chances are whoever they acquired wasn't going to help them. At all. OL take so long to develop and have so many starting spots available that 1) anyone who's actually good isn't blocked on his way to the field and 2) anyone who gets the impression they should leave early in their career is probably a very long way from being a top-end contributor.
A guy like Ryan Ramczyk is an exception: overlooked in high school and established at a particular level, transferring up, is a totally different world than a guy who can't get on the two deep at a Power 5 school. And guys like Ramczyk are exceedingly rare. I can think of only Ryan Ramczyk.
Transfer OL don't help.
Preferred fancystat?
Hi Brian,
I'm arguing with an awful ND friend of mine about the virtues of Football Outsiders versus ESPN's FPI (FPI likes ND more than Michigan). Is my troll accurate as to the Football Outsiders guys' metrics being better than ESPN's?
I'm an LSA grad, so don't have the quant skillz to prove my point. But I know somebody who does - everyone's favorite MGoBlogger. Any ammo you have would be appreciated.
Anyway - love the blog and Go Blue.
John [ed: a different John]
I don't know anything about FPI since it's proprietary. Also I don't look at it because it doesn't say anything interesting. It has grades for offense, defense, and special teams and one overall number and that's it. When a Mississippi State blog looked at it a couple years back it won 53% of the time against the spread in a 55-game sample, which is probably within the coin-flip error bars. S&P+ is in the same range:
Each year at Football Study Hall, I have posted weekly S&P+ picks as a way of affirming the ratings’ validity. I use my S&P+ system as a complement to most of my analysis, and the picks are a way of showing it generally knows what it’s talking about.
S&P+ tends to hit between 50 (meh) and 54 percent (great) against the spread from year to year. It isn’t always the single best performer, but it holds its own. And beyond picks, it goes deeper than any other set of college football analytics on the market. You can go into granular detail regarding team strengths and weaknesses in a way that no other set of ratings allows. (See the annual team statistical profiles as proof.)
So: I don't know which one is better, and I don't know which team is better, and probably nobody does. I like S&P+ because it tells you a lot of different things and seems no better or worse than any other ranking versus the spread.
Game theory item.
In the last game, Michigan scores a touchdown to make it 14-9 and decides to kick the point after instead of go for two. Why not go for two and make it a field goal difference (14-11)? As things turned out, if the two point conversion was successful, it certainly could've impacted the outcome of the game.
I'm probably just missing something obvious here as this wasn't addressed in either the broadcast or the "game theory stuff" section of the podcast.
Thanks,
Jake
This did not occur to me at the time but I think you're right. Normally the middle of the third quarter is too early to start thinking about end-game states. Michigan had six(!) possessions after their TD, five of them unencumbered by the clock. Usually the play there is to kick the extra point instead of going for the lower-percentage play.
With rain approaching and Michigan having just two scores most of the way through a game the equation shifts. Even at the time Michigan scored it felt like they'd need another short field to do it and that another MSU TD would be game over; in that circumstance you probably should try to get within a field goal. Another reader with the same question noted that a 54-yard field goal was on offer for Quinn Nordin if Michigan was down 14-11.
[Fuller]
Wide receivers.
A question for your next mailbag: what is the difference between a receiver who runs good routes (Grant Perry) and a receiver who doesn't (DPJ)? Is it the ability to run a route that is accurate to the play's design, or is it more in the realm of taking what the defense gives you? By contrast, what makes it difficult for many younger receivers (e.g. DPJ) to run accurate routes? Thanks!
DB
Routes, with a few exceptions, are broadly irrespective of the defense that is run against them. Those exceptions include underneath "stick" routes on which the TE or RB breaks away from the closest defender, four verts concepts on which sometimes interior WRs do sit down if they recognize coverage, and tweaks on crossing routes when you see zone coverage and sit between two defenders instead of continuing to run into one. You might also see a guy anticipate a back shoulder throw when he's got a guy over the top of him.
But mostly you're running an out or a fly or a post and that's just what you're supposed to do. And getting that down...well, there's a lot of stuff, just like anything. Precision is the most important thing: the QB is often throwing to a spot at a certain time and you have to be there, and not a yard off or a second late. Perry is consistent at this; others not so much. Getting off of press coverage is another thing; a couple times in this game we saw WRs get shoved so far into the sideline that they had no shot at a catch. Setting up your guy with a double move is a third dark art, one that Perry has and Crawford, amongst others, seemingly does not.
Young guys have a tough time with route precision because they've mostly been able to overpower and outrun anyone they come across in high school, and precision is often made worthless by bad coverage and bad quarterbacks. DPJ, who played in a rudimentary passing offense, was a guy who was always going to have a transition period.
October 10th, 2017 at 3:38 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 3:43 PM ^
That's not trolling. You're trying too hard. Make your point if you have one instead of just resorting to name-calling.
October 10th, 2017 at 7:19 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 7:11 PM ^
NOT EVERY GODDAMNED PERSON ON THE INTERNET WHO DISAGREES IS A TROLL
October 10th, 2017 at 7:21 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 3:04 PM ^
slaton was playing d-line against us for florida, so he might not have worked out anyways.
October 10th, 2017 at 3:45 PM ^
was/is the best option at right tackel he would be playing. If he was the best performing right tackle in practice the coaches wouldn't keep him out of the line up just so he can redshirt.
October 10th, 2017 at 7:02 PM ^
October 11th, 2017 at 9:39 AM ^
Bad, faulty reasoning..."the coaches know best" is often shown to be false. Otherwise, we don't know if he doesn't get the opportunity in a game situation. They may be right or they may be wrong...we currently do not know.
October 10th, 2017 at 2:19 PM ^
" I would say there is a schematic issue caused by that change in philosophy, which may or may not end up sticking. Survey says: probably not."
Which is probably not sticking?
The schematic issue or the change in philosophy?
October 10th, 2017 at 2:24 PM ^
"I would say there is a schematic issue caused by that change in philosophy, which may or may not end up sticking. Survey says: probably not."
Do you mean that you think the schematic issue won't continue to be a problem, or that the change of philosophy won't stick?
I wonder if there's a middle ground where we could have a ground game predicated on surprise (high volume of formations and plays) that uses zone blocking instead of man. I don't have the savvy to know if we're already attempting to do that or not, though.
It's tempting to say we should just choose a blocking scheme and stick with it, but it doesn't seem to matter right now considering personnel. It may matter down the road, though, even if we did hire Frey with the purpose of running zone, knowing he was a zone guy.
October 10th, 2017 at 2:26 PM ^
Is it just me or does Michigan struggle more than usual to get good play out of true freshmen? I honestly can't remember a true freshman who made a big, positive impact for us since... Denard/Tate? You see these true freshmen starting all over the place, including on the offensive line. Sometimes it's a trainwreck and other times it works out okay.
October 10th, 2017 at 2:53 PM ^
Wouldn't you think that the amount of experience around starting freshmen would be the most important factor, there? I agree with you, but... Tarik Black was most likely headed toward a big positive impact.
You also made me wonder how much our struggles are based on not having high caliber upperclassmen at certain position groups over the past 5-7 years. For positions like OL, we haven't exactly had a cohesive starting 5 serving as examples of how to get from point A to point B as an incoming freshman. On the other hand, we have definitely had that benefit on the DL. As an OL here right now, there isn't someone ahead of you to watch (other than Cole) on the practice field to demonstrate what successfully playing the respective position looks like.
October 10th, 2017 at 2:52 PM ^
Mason Cole? I agree with you, though.
October 10th, 2017 at 3:13 PM ^
But we have to remember that many of the freshmen starting are doing it out of necessity, because there's just no one else. Ideally the freshmen we want to see the field are there because they've EARNED it, like it would be criminal to NOT give the laying time. Rashan Gary and Peppers are the examples that stick out in my mind (Peppers did get injured early on...but he was clearly good enough to be on the field right away). Tarik Black was clearly a WR that was good enough to start immediately, even if he has some freshman issues to work out. Even then, ideally we don't want him as the designated #1 guy, but because we don't have much choice he had to fill the role before he was really ready.
October 10th, 2017 at 4:34 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 2:38 PM ^
I feel like I'm watching a reincarnation of the Al Borges offense. Trying to do a lot and not good at anything.
October 10th, 2017 at 3:16 PM ^
Feels kinda the opposite to me. Borges/Hoke were always shitting themselves and out of desperation swapping OL, flirting between some zone read, qb iso stuff with the offense Hoke wanted to run, and coming up with new garbage tackle over packages, etc. Absolutely no coherence.
On the flip side, we had two weeks to prepare with a new mobile QB and the best we can do is a couple half hearted attempts at zone read, run some power and a failed reverse. Not too creative. I'll give you that in both cases, coaches appear unable to tailor their offense to their actual roster.
October 10th, 2017 at 4:21 PM ^
on the reverse. That's a success. Could have been better, but I'll take 6 yards on first down every time.
October 10th, 2017 at 4:26 PM ^
DPJ got 6 yards, I'll give you that. I'm not going to call it a well executed play though. He wanted to get outside the QB and couldn't because it was pretty well sniffed out. Compare that to the token Dantonio play up his sleeve throwback screen, and well, there's a discrepancy.
October 10th, 2017 at 7:20 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 2:49 PM ^
DB must be a woman, asking about routes... how cute.
-C. Newton
October 10th, 2017 at 2:53 PM ^
Just saw a tweet that Drake Harris has been moved back to WR. Not sure if he can help, but at this point how can it hurt?
October 10th, 2017 at 3:16 PM ^
New rule for 'crootin: Take a QB and two tackles in every class. EVERY class. k THX
October 10th, 2017 at 3:36 PM ^
You'd think that taking 5 OL per year would just be the baseline.
2 Prototypical Tackle
1 TE/T tweener or G/T tweener
2 Prototypical Guard
OR
1 Prototypical Guard
1 Center
Redshirts for everyone, no exceptions.
That still leaves you 16-20 guys a year to build a line out of.
If you have issues fitting that many scholarships under the cap, drop the tweener every other year.
October 10th, 2017 at 3:27 PM ^
I know this has been talked about alot, but damn, so many dropped passes this year. That last one to Mcdoom was just unacceptable. If he makes that catch, who knows what would have happened in the final seconds of that game. That pass was RIGHT TO HIM!
Overall, it is a team effort, and I think this young team has just not gelled yet. It seems like as soon as Speight or O'Korn would get going and start to move the ball, a receiver would drop a wide open pass and damn us on third down, or someone would fumble!
The team needs a better chemistry together and work on timing. I had a feeling O'Korn's first "Big" game was going to be tough. I would like to see nice, solid, simple pass plays against IU.
I know this team can do it.
Go Blue.
October 10th, 2017 at 7:17 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 9:47 PM ^
OKorn revealed his small mindedness yapping how important it was to him to show up Tony Levine... thats small ball to me.... he should have taken the high road, and realized he got benched because he deserved it at the time... when he was talking in that interview after the game, I was disappointed....
October 10th, 2017 at 3:33 PM ^
Hoping someone with more details can clarify this...
I did not catch the opening coin toss results, nor do I remember it being mentioned at the onset. However, the game did open with M receiving the kickoff and defending the north endzone, so it was presumed that MSU had won the toss and elected to defer its decision to the 2nd half. At the time I thought it still a potential advantage for M as far as having elected to go with the prevailing wind - noted by the TV crew as being southerly - at Quinn Nordin's back to close both halves.
Naturally, direction of play reversed for the 2nd quarter, but alas, there was not an opportunity for M to close the half with a FG.
Also as expected, MSU received the ball to open the 3rd quarter, presumably by it electing to do so. However, Sparty was still defending the north endzone, the same as it was doing in the 2nd quarter. Thus, Sparty got the ball to begin the 2nd half and the wind advantage for the end of the game.
Did anyone else notice this? Did the wind change directions and M opted to defend the South endzone to open the 2nd half?
October 10th, 2017 at 3:55 PM ^
Should have read further down first -- my mistake.
Yes, MSU won the toss, deferred, and took the ball. Michigan chose the wind in the 3rd rather than the 4th. I'm not sure I agree, but the wind didn't shift. It was swirling somewhat below the level of the press box, though -- normal for Michigan Stadium -- but the prevailing wind was constant.
October 10th, 2017 at 3:43 PM ^
Wow, I didn't even think about us being in position to kick a FG on that last play if we'd gotten the 2-pointer. OTOH, not sure what play we'd run to get the two points.
October 10th, 2017 at 3:51 PM ^
The Bears ran a very cool 2-point conversion last night on MNF. Not sure if we could duplicate it...but the play was pretty sweet in the moment.
October 10th, 2017 at 7:14 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 3:53 PM ^
A 2pt conversion would require getting into the endzone, again. We struggle with that.
October 10th, 2017 at 6:31 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 3:53 PM ^
Heavy formation and give the ball to Hill with Poggi and Mason leading for him.
If that doesn't get into the endzone, just walk off the field in disgrace.
October 10th, 2017 at 3:58 PM ^
The try is from the 3 in the NCAA. I don't see Michigan gaining three yards on that play, outnumbered against the entirety of the MSU defense.
October 10th, 2017 at 4:02 PM ^
Even with a heavy formation, MSU has to keep multiple DBs on the field, because there are still going to be 4 Michigan players who can go out in routes.
With 3 FBs, Michigan can Poggi and Mason at different holes, giving Hill options on where to go. That means MSU can't shoot every gap and guarantee they clog up the play.
I like their chances at making 3 yards.
October 10th, 2017 at 4:42 PM ^
Three yards with Hill on the goal line is asking a bit much. If we still had Houma, maybe.
October 10th, 2017 at 5:01 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 7:12 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 5:16 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 7:24 PM ^
Google "personal hot seat" and you'll see what I mean...
October 10th, 2017 at 8:08 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 9:20 PM ^
Coach Franklin, under much harder circumstances, already has a big 10 championship in the bag and is on pace to win another and Michigan probably will finish 4th in the Big 10 east?
Oh, but you keep telling us Harbaugh is so much better than Franklin. LOL.
No. I take the LOL back. This isn't even funny anymore. Too easy.
October 11th, 2017 at 8:50 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 9:45 PM ^
Brian mentioned OL transferring "up" can work.... maybe this was the thing to find, a promising player like JJ Watt or Fisher... from the likes of the MAC... surely they'd have been better than what we have. I am just as baffled how that massive hole was allowed to remain for years. Even if Newsome doesn't get hurt...the hole is still there, unless they planned to move Cole to RT.... incredible... Cole is playing everywhere BUT where he should be playing...at guard....
maybe Harbaugh left the personnel decisions on the OL to Drevno and/or Finotti or whoever the guy who was getting paid... massive fail.... they must have had supreme confidence in coaching up JBB, Ulizio, Runyan. Or maybe they were confident with Ruiz coming in that they have a ton of OL and the best five will surface, not realizing they are all guards...
October 11th, 2017 at 8:23 AM ^
and wishes he had never left. I wish he was still our OC.
October 11th, 2017 at 4:34 PM ^
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