At Least It's Something To Get Upset About
2/19/2017 – Michigan 78, Minnesota 83 (OT) – 17-10, 7-7 Big Ten
[Patrick Barron]
I was pretty mad last night for obvious reasons, and it occurred to me that I hadn't been actually mad at a Michigan sporting thing since football ceased. Hockey's fallen into the abyss to the point where the poor damn SID for that sport is issuing game recaps like this:
Michigan's Comeback Bid Falls Short at Wisconsin
MADISON, Wis. -- The University of Michigan ice hockey team fell, 5-2, to Wisconsin on Friday night (Feb. 17) in a Big Ten Conference matchup at the Kohl Center.
Juuuust a little short. Now that their record has caught up with their play (they're 1-7-2 in their last ten games, including an 0-2-2 record against Michigan State, the worst power conference team in RPI) it's been hard to even pay attention. Even when I am at a game I come away from it with few opinions other than "they are bad but Lockwood is good." It happens in front of you and then it is gone. Hockey isn't even interestingly bad.
Michigan's big three sports have endured seasons like this before, of course, but football's so short and their 3-9 was such an anomaly that it still held some interest, as a historical artifact if nothing else. I did get used to ignoring various basketball teams because they started walk-ons at point guard and their game strategy was to hold the ball for 30 seconds and then get the one half-decent player on the team to heave up a heavily contested jumper.
Ignoring hockey (hockey!) is weird to me, but here we are. We sold our tickets to the most recent Michigan State game because 75 bucks sounded better than a punch in the gut, and when I tried to turn the game on only to find it was not televised, I was relieved. So that's where we are in 2016 with hockey: I can legitimately be surprised when a game is not televised, and I can be fine with missing the saddest has-been rivalry in sports.
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In that light, getting mad on twitter about TV Ted Valentine is actually kind of nice. Don't get me wrong: I'd rather watch a college basketball game not run by people so deranged they might end up on CNN attacking the independent judiciary. I'd rather watch a college basketball game in which Michigan does not set a Beilein-era record for free throws allowed (41!). I'd rather have guys who don't give Michigan a tech from halfway across the court for no apparent reason. I nonetheless choose fist-clenching impotent fury over the listless apathy hockey's induced.
And that is a little something after Michigan's early conference swoon looked fatal. This chart is the change in teams' efficiency margins since conference play started; Michigan is the line that flirts with becoming Indiana 2.0—remember when they beat Kansas and UNC?—before reversing:
Here's the change in B1G teams' efficiency margins since the opening of conference play. Maryland is on fire. pic.twitter.com/Las2y7cgtB
— snwman (@bkbtNUmbers) February 20, 2017
Now I have a reason to silently hope people I've never met get a mildly debilitating disease that renders them unable to referee basketball games without having much impact on the rest of their lives and suddenly realize that this has already happened. Possibly twice.
So I've got that going for me. A silver lining.
Bullets
Eh, I'm kind of fine with Wagner fouling out like that. Michigan's down one with about a minute left and Wagner tries his Mitch McGary poke. It works, but in the process of it working Wagner hits the guy in the face and fouls out. Shon Morris immediately starts bemoaning how dumb that was.
I don't know about that. Michigan only got to overtime because Wagner was successful at prying the ball loose at half court and getting a quick two points. Repeating that in overtime down one swings your victory percentage way up—at least 30-40 percent, I'd guess. It's a risk but it might be a good one.
This style matchup. Watching Michigan play Minnesota is always an interesting contrast in styles. Beilein recruits a ton of skilled shooters and has them run an intricate offense; Pitino recruits guys chiseled out of marble who have never seen a basketball and has them run wildly at the basket in case that works out.
I greatly prefer Beilein's approach for a number of reasons, with one exception: gol dang it would be nice to have a Reggie Lynch at center. Lynch was not highly recruited and in fact played his first two years at Illinois State; he was #1 in block rate both of his two years there and is #1 this year. My kingdom for a guy who can affect shots. Maybe Jon Teske will figure out which bits are his knees and which are his elbows next year.
In all other ways, Minnesota basketball looks painful.
Free throws. In addition to the ref rogering, Michigan went through a stretch last night where Derrick Walton and Duncan Robinson went 1-5 from the free throw line. Robinson is 81% and Walton 88%. There's a divide here between the kind of person who goes all MAKE YOUR FREE THROWS as if this was a moral failing deserving of a loss and persons like myself who look at an event like that as an improbable statistical event that is worth no more than a shrug and a shake of the fist at Gamblor.
Minnesota's troubles evaporated in the second half; by the end of the game they were right on their 68% season average. Michigan was at 50%, which I don't have to tell you is not what they average. That is one of the reasons they lost.
February 20th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^
What is up with this shit? pic.twitter.com/43EjIOq2IF
— Due# (@JDue51) February 20, 2017
February 20th, 2017 at 12:46 PM ^
with Pitino being so close in his ear he had to move him out of the way to make the call.
February 20th, 2017 at 12:48 PM ^
Not a foul (because it was Michigan). It apparently WAS a foul on MAAR when the Minnesota player let the ball boune off his shoulder and then dove out of bounds to try to save it. MAAR got called for apparently looking at him. It apparently WAS a foul on Walton when the two players both chased down a ball heading out of bounds. It apparently WAS a technical foul when a Michigan assistant started getting ready for a TO too early. I apparently DON'T know what a foul is any more...
February 20th, 2017 at 12:50 PM ^
This was the point when i lost it. I had to be verbally reprimanded by my wife that i'll was scaring the dog.
February 20th, 2017 at 12:53 PM ^
I jumped so high I about hit the ceiling when that went uncalled right in front of that ref. What a coward.
February 20th, 2017 at 1:29 PM ^
The great part though is that I'm pretty sure right after that vid ends Michigan stole the ball and got a layup. Ball don't lie.
February 20th, 2017 at 4:33 PM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 2:38 PM ^
Is there a clip of the technical foul?
February 20th, 2017 at 12:36 PM ^
I thought this tweet was a great point about the refs. Why do they get to completely change the outcome of a game and then just disapear into the night afterward? That's unacceptable. If a coach can be fined for criticizing the refs there needs to be some accountability going in the other direction as well.
There is no accountability for these guys, ever. No press conferences, no review of their performance. It shows.
— mgoblog (@mgoblog) February 20, 2017
February 20th, 2017 at 2:36 PM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 2:49 PM ^
I don't watch many college basketball games that don't involve Michigan, and officiating is a big reason why. I want the players to decide the game, not the officials to "create drama."
February 20th, 2017 at 3:10 PM ^
Yep. Big corporations tend to not look at the big picture. It's the same reason why commercials have gotten so bad. They stuffed as many ads as they possibly could into games and only when subscribers started dropping like flies did they think about fixing it.
Officiating will get worse and worse and they won't fix it until they've already lost a lot of fans.
February 20th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 12:38 PM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 12:39 PM ^
Seriously @bigten Do you train these refs? pic.twitter.com/rf5D7euAgM
— Due# (@JDue51) February 20, 2017
February 20th, 2017 at 12:54 PM ^
if he doesn't make that call. He really had no choice.
February 20th, 2017 at 1:28 PM ^
There was another no call on a Donnal layup, he got hit in the head, which for the most part is called in any game.
February 20th, 2017 at 1:30 PM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 2:45 PM ^
And another one. Duncan Robinson's 4th personal, and 3 FTs for Minnesota. Where exactly is the contact?
That's a foul, eh? pic.twitter.com/FcvODMVCEq
— Due# (@JDue51) February 20, 2017
February 21st, 2017 at 8:32 AM ^
I can accept that sometimes there will be a foul that is not called, because maybe the ref was looking elsewhere or didn't have a good angle or something like that. What I cannot accept and what nobody should ever accept is a ref calling a foul where he DID NOT see contact. How can you call a foul that you did NOT see, that nobody saw, because there was no contact?!!? That irks me.
February 20th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 1:04 PM ^
Irvin shooting atrociously has unfortunately been a common event lately. Should drive to the basket only, he's way off on his shot.
And I think we need to recognize that foul shooting was bad because this was on the road in a tense environment. Tight game, tournament hopes on the line, much more pressure, it's likely that took its toll. I don't believe it's as random as Brian makes it appear to be.
February 20th, 2017 at 1:32 PM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 2:19 PM ^
Well it appears the data supports you. No real change in FT% being on the road (though FG% is adversely affected).
http://www.inpredictable.com/2015/03/clutch-shooting-isnt-easy-unless-i…
February 20th, 2017 at 3:25 PM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 2:15 PM ^
Michigan is one of the best FT shooting teams in the country. And yet, we've played numerous games that have been close and/or on the road. So it's a bit hard to buy that a fairly experienced team just suddenly got the nerves last night at the stripe.
February 20th, 2017 at 8:32 PM ^
I do actually wonder if there was something weird going on at that end of the floor for people from the line lighting wise or something. Minnesota was 40% on that end and MUCH better in the second half.
February 21st, 2017 at 9:05 AM ^
That's an interesting point. The teams definitely shot better at the other end.
(BTW - don't teams change directions in overtime? I thought they did.)
February 20th, 2017 at 12:51 PM ^
POLITICS! Be careful Brian, lest you get sent to Bolivia.
February 20th, 2017 at 1:14 PM ^
Really. Do yourself (and us) a favor and follow the no politics rule.
February 20th, 2017 at 6:38 PM ^
take it to the Supreme Court for yet another along party lines 5-4 ruling. Splain that if courts and refs are unbiased.
February 20th, 2017 at 1:25 PM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 12:57 PM ^
In one of the local rags, the "reason" for the tech was that our coach got up on the sideline floor to go over to the end of the bench rather than stayong on "ground level". Due to the raised surface at The Barn (tm) only Beilein and players about to enter the game would be seen on that actual court level during game play. So I guess the fact the coach somehow got up on the actual sideline floor incited armageddon and a tech foul.
February 20th, 2017 at 1:16 PM ^
and not the game.
I said this in other thread, but the whistle came so fast from Valentine that I think he was anticipating Beilein to be yelling about the bad call. He was "lucky" to be able to switch his T to another coach when he saw Beilein walking away toward his bench. The raised floor is cool, but man does it seem to cause stupid issues like this.
February 20th, 2017 at 1:28 PM ^
Beilein was working the officials pretty hard most of the second half (rightfuly so). I have no doubt there was a bit of an anticipatory aspect on the T.
All of the Minnesota fans sitting around me were equally dismayed at first trying to figure out what the second whistle was for. Then they started cheering when it was clear what it was. A couple Minnesota fans made the "he had it coming" comment.
February 20th, 2017 at 2:02 PM ^
I had Beilein had seen to me. I saw quite a few bullshits thrown out for rightful bullshit calls. That's why I think the T was coming, but he happened to be walking away that one time. I think it's also bullshit that Beilein would get e technical considering how much other league coaches (Izzo) get away with yelling at the refs. Beilein doesn't seem to do it a lot, so if he is, they should probably listen.
February 20th, 2017 at 2:36 PM ^
As a fan, I was happy to see Beilein so demonstrative. As a ref, I would have told him he needed to back off. At one point I could hear word for word what he was yelling and I was on the opposite corner and end of the court.
February 21st, 2017 at 2:08 PM ^
but they deserved every bit of it. When one of the most reserved, soft-spoken coaches in basketball is furious, it's probably for good reason. And it was.
February 20th, 2017 at 1:02 PM ^
this season as well. This is egregious. This is dumb. You risk losing fans when it gets this stupid. I can't get mad at Beilein's squad at all under last night's circumstances. We should be four for our last four. Thankfully, we will be playing on neutral courts in the NCAAs; maybe it will help.
This was one of Brian's better, funnier screeds.
February 20th, 2017 at 1:19 PM ^
MSU does foul a lot though. They're always hand-checking, hip-checking, going over the back . . . if anything they should probably be called for more than they are.
A Beilein team giving up 41 FTs is crazy though.
February 20th, 2017 at 1:01 PM ^
whoopty
February 20th, 2017 at 1:02 PM ^
a-doops
February 20th, 2017 at 1:06 PM ^
Having rushed home from a golf game here in rainy so cal. I caught the second half and the ot and can only say what I always say on a golf course.
Deserved better.
But seeing as this is the big ten and officials have determined games for years on years, without any accountiblity, I now just say, this is big ten basketball. Don't whine, Make Your Free Throws, even if they are less than half of the home teams. And leave NO Doubt next time.
I taped to re watch. But I have this game a thousand times. I will just delete this one. Big ten officiating is a joke and continues to be so.
February 20th, 2017 at 3:06 PM ^
- we should give some credit to Murphy and Curry. Murphy is a junkyard dog, with really high rebound rates and some nice moves inside and he's been on fire lately. Curry showed some nice slashing ability to go 5-5 from the floor. They're both efficient on 2pters and last night it wasn't just on putbacks and dunks. The only reason keeping them from higher efficiency overall is the unusual tendency to jack up threes with abysmal success (19 and 21 precent respectively). They have some young talent for the future.
- Donnal played well again. Mo went out with Michigan down 5 and while Donnal was in for a long stretch, he wasn't a liability, played solid and we closed the gap to 1 by the time Mo was put back in. Seems like he found the motivation needed to get him playing closer to last year's form and has been a solid backup the last two games.
- The Wagner foul ehhhh. Yes, they got to overtime because he successfully got one of those pokes but they were down 8 (or 6) with under 2 minutes - gambling at that point was a must. When you're down one with plenty of time and the other team is in the bonus, you just can't get that foul and send the guy to the line, especially because it was a lazy hack across the body that had no chance of working. His steal in regulation came on him jumping out on the pick and roll to catch a guy off-guard - much better chance of success. At some point, he needs to use some basketball IQ and think about the situation. He's getting closer, but the over-eager puppy dog in him still leads to at least 3-4 boneheaded plays a game.
February 20th, 2017 at 1:17 PM ^
Play basketball enough and you'll learn that a reach-in on the front of a driving player will be called 95% of the time even if there's minimal contact. Always reach from behind (a la Burke/Appling). It was a good call.
February 20th, 2017 at 1:58 PM ^
that it wasn't a good call. Brian is making the argument that it was a good risk on Wagner's part. As I mentioned above, I don't think it was a good risk because, you're correct that he had about a 5 percent chance of getting that - not worth it in that situation.
February 20th, 2017 at 2:12 PM ^
Exactly. It wasn't a good risk.
February 20th, 2017 at 1:19 PM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 1:35 PM ^
Yeah crappy refs
But if we make just one more free throw in regulation - we win.
I think if we win the games we are supposed to (rutgers, Neb) we are in.
More wins than that will move us up from around 10/11 to 9/8 and get us perhaps double bye in Big Ten tourney.
Go 0-4 or 1-3 in next 4 games, we don't deserve to be in.
February 20th, 2017 at 2:39 PM ^
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