Inside The Shooting Resurgence of Caleb Houstan
A former 5-star prospect that was generally considered the best shooter in the 2021 class, Caleb Houstan largely struggled during the first half of the season. Prior to the Maryland game, Houstan was shooting just 29.4% from beyond the arch on 68 attempts.
In the last three contests though, Caleb is torching the nets by connecting on 11 of his 16 shots from distance. The perimeter shotmaking has been a welcome sight for a team with a player in Hunter Dickinson that forces a secondary defender on the majority of his post-touches. A reliable release valve places the opposition in a pick your poison quandary.
So the question is what's behind the turnaround? We'll take a detailed look at just that.
EARLY STRUGGLES
In the early stages of the season, Michigan was using Houstan as a primary option. He was getting shots off actions specifically designed to free him up for catch and shoot threes off movement.
From a shot mechanic perspective, Caleb generally has a clean looking shot. Going through his shots earlier in the year, I didn't notice the fading back that Houstan made reference to, but there is one very minor issue. He generally extends his right foot out a bit in relation to his left foot, which can result in an off-balance shot, particularly when coming off movement. The clip above is paused at the release point of each shot so you can visualize this slight mechanical flaw.
The footwork flaw is also present in his midrange pull-up as you can see in the clip below.
As you can see from the shot attempts in the two clips above, Caleb has some bad misses when he's forced to shoot when coming off screens or even simple relocations when tasked with moving with any sort of speed/tight windows. The synergy numbers back that up, as Houstan is generating .522ppp off screens on 23 attempts, good for 10th percentile nationally.
[AFTER THE JUMP, the come-up!]
LESS MOVEMENT + MORE SPACE = BETTER RESULTS
Over the last three games Caleb's shooting improvement has a strong correlation to more stationary shot attempts. My description of his 11 makes from distance over that stretch:
Completely Stationary Catch + Shoot - 6 makes
One Hop-Step Prior to Catch + Shoot - 3 makes
One Movement Catch + Shoot with Excessive Space - 1 make
One True Movement Catch + Shoot - 1 make
The clip below depicts all 11 makes and as you can see there is a common denominator here. Less movement because a teammate has done the leg work for Houstan. Usually that someone is Hunter Dickinson.
Again, the Synergy numbers paint a picture that matches the eye test. Caleb is generating 1.214ppp on spot-ups and 1.333ppp on unguarded catch + shoot jumpers.
CONCLUSION
Early on his college career, Houstan appears to be a "stand in the corner" type rather than a guy you can design half-court sets around. To put this in better context among "just shooter" types at the highest level, he's much more Danny Green (stationary shooter) than JJ Reddick/Patty Mills (run around 10 screens then hit a catch + shoot jumper).
And that does place a certain ceiling on his impact to the offense, since opposing defenses don't really have to prepare for him as a decoy that might free up our post options in Dickinson + Diabate.
But Caleb can still serve as a gravitational force by simply hitting those "stand in the corner" type shots. Opposing coaches will be forced to deal with the other end of the quandary...........can I afford to double Dickinson/Diabate when this guy is a legit threat to hit a triple on the kickout?
Opposing coaches are opting for the former as of now, and Caleb is cashing in. For now, an offense designed around Hunter Dickinson in the post is the exact recipe he needs to be a successful shooter. But even if opposing coaches opt to single-up on Hunter to stay home with Houstan, that allows our All-American big to operate one-on-one, which is equally as potent.
In a nutshell, Caleb Houstan is the perfect weakside match for Hunter Dickinson and his gorgeous skip passes provided he's a supplemental option and not tasked with being a shot creator via screens or off the bounce.
January 28th, 2022 at 1:10 PM ^
I know next to nothing about basketball shooting mechanics. Why does having one foot forward have a negative impact on a shot? I ask because the same issue appears in all of Houstan's recent makes. His right foot always starts slightly forward as he rises to shoot.
January 28th, 2022 at 1:17 PM ^
I'll join on this question. Puzzled too.
January 28th, 2022 at 1:22 PM ^
If your right foot is extended out, the percentages increase that your torso/shoulders/arms/upper-body are twisting left..........which is likely at least a contributing factor to his shots coming off left that I clipped above.
It's not the be-all/end-all, but for a guy that is an extremely limited athlete it may be a bigger factor than we know. To simplify it, having one foot extended out = unbalanced. You want more balance/one-motion shot attempts to optimize the odds of any given shot going in. Unnecessary motion = less likely to go in.
That's where the additional time/space comes in. When he has adequate time/space, perhaps his body can compensate for that in ways that he can't when rushed. In other words, he has time to line it up and fire away.
January 28th, 2022 at 1:36 PM ^
Ahhh. This makes more sense. When I originally read your post, I thought you were identifying a mechanical flaw that Houstan recently fixed. Instead, you laid out how Michigan has changed Houstan's role in a manner that minimizes the impact of that weakness.
As you described it, Houstan shoots with his right foot forward, which can unbalance his shot. Houstan seems to struggle with the extra torque on his motion when shooting off the dribble. By leaving him in place, Michigan compensates for Houstan's weakness by giving him a more stable shooting platform.
January 28th, 2022 at 1:39 PM ^
That's the short story here. Treating Houstan like top 50-100 prospect that is a supplemental piece rather than a 1st-2nd option has done wonders for him and the team.
January 28th, 2022 at 2:15 PM ^
Matt, great analysis, thanks. Do you think this is something they've worked with him on? What is the likelihood of him correcting this to any degree?
January 28th, 2022 at 3:13 PM ^
Considering the early part of the season where Houstan was getting shots off screens/DHOS, it's probably safe to assume they worked on it with him with considerable repetition.
The recent developments suggest the staff has probably realized he's not a movement shooter and it will likely use him as a "Stand in the corner" guy for the most part moving forward.
Do I think it can be fixed? I mean, it can be. Is it likely, probably not. He's working with a lot of athletic limitations that make that sort of thing very challenging
January 28th, 2022 at 2:24 PM ^
I would argue the balance part is significantly more important than the staggered stance. I’ve had/seen shooting coaches teach the staggered stance. Last one I saw basically said it doesn’t matter as you don’t have heel-toe separation meaning in CH’s case the right heel isn’t in front of the left toe. Some shooters find the staggered stance more comfortable. I think some of it may have to do with sighting and if you’re dominant eye is opposite your shooting hand (My hypothesis based on my own experience, no data there).
I think you’re spot on with the motion though, his taller and lankey build makes it harder to center himself before going up. It’s probably more of a lateral agility weakness than shooting mechanics. His height and length have most likely been enough so far in his career.
January 28th, 2022 at 2:42 PM ^
Huh, weird, 25 years ago (jesus) when I was in high school we had a shot doctor come train our basketball team how to properly shoot and we were taught to have the right foot (assuming you're a righty) slightly forward.
January 28th, 2022 at 3:11 PM ^
Yes that is actually very common. I think it is misguided to assume the staggered stance is the problem for Houstan. It is more likely that he is not getting properly balanced when coming off of motion.
January 28th, 2022 at 11:14 PM ^
He might simply be drifting in one direction or the other due to trying to be quicker coming off a cut; speed of the game, and all. If you run off a screen, get the ball and try to fire off a shot as quickly as you can because college defenders are closing on your more quickly than you're used to, centering yourself squarely to the basket doesn't happen when you rise up. You drift, and the ball tends to go the direction you drift in, which is away from the center of the basket.
Catching the ball and going up from a stationary stance that allows you to square up = no drift.
Admittedly, I can't tell from these angles, but it's something easy to see if your point of view, Houstan, and the basket are more lined up.
January 28th, 2022 at 4:11 PM ^
I think there's a difference between a staggered stance when you lift and kicking a leg forward on release. I'm also much more comfortable staggered when I shoot, but going straight up and down doesn't have the twisting impact Matt's talking about when a leg kicks out.
January 29th, 2022 at 12:00 AM ^
It just seems strange to see you refer to Houstan as an 'extremely limited athlete' when he is a 5 star, top 12 in nation type recruit. Also, as far as the eye test, while he is admittedly not great yet on defense, it is no disgrace for a guy his size to not be too effective at guarding the 3 spot, and he also shows some promise in the mid-range game and occasional forays to the hoop. I would describe him as a 'pretty good, but not elite' athlete.
January 29th, 2022 at 1:07 AM ^
My understanding is that since Steph Curry emerged as a GOAT NBA shooter, the right foot thing is no longer considered a technical flaw.
January 29th, 2022 at 9:06 AM ^
an overextended right foot can be ok if you have a more linear elbow that is aimed right at the basket (Larry Bird is a classic example), but I'm noticing Caleb doesn't do that with his elbow. In a lot of his makes, it looks like he begins his shot on the other side of his head.
So you're right, more emphasis on the footwork becomes a necessity.
Let's hope it gets fixed in the offseason.
January 28th, 2022 at 1:23 PM ^
Balance
Eyes
Elbow
Follow-thru
BEEF
January 28th, 2022 at 1:30 PM ^
My friends and I call this a "Manny Harris shot"
January 28th, 2022 at 1:32 PM ^
There is a definite over-extension of the right foot upon release in his earlier travails. A right- handed shooter would angle slightly to their left on a clean jump shot as the right is the lead hand. A right leg kickout of the base(feet/legs) will result in an imbalance, therefore drifting his shots to the left. A twisting motion if you will. Ever so subtle, yet impactful upon his shot dynamics. Collect the puppies and garner a solid base. Release, rotation, splash.
Edit: I shoulda waited for Matt to answer. Woulda saved me the typing.
Absolutely love yer content Matt!
January 28th, 2022 at 5:18 PM ^
Yeah, being squared up to the basket requires fewer muscles to engage (to compensate for being off at an angle), which creates fewer variations in your shot, which likely provides a more repeatable motion. Repeatable = consistent. Being more of a static shooter will help, but fixing that issue will give him more mileage when faced with suboptimal shooting situations.
January 28th, 2022 at 1:33 PM ^
Disclaimer: I was a sharp shooting basketball player in my younger years whose been to some basketball camps on shooting.
Before my growth spurt in high school, I could shoot the rock pretty better than most. I was taught early on about the acronym: BEEF
B: balance. This is self-explanatory
E: elbow. Make sure it is consistently aligned to the shoulder on your shooting arm. No elbow flailing!
E: eyes. Focus on the ball and the basket and forget about everything else including the defender
F: follow-through. Don't be hesitant about this regardless of defender
B&F were the things that were the hardest to be consistent about. I think for CH, its his balance that has been off the most with the catch-n-shoot approach he had earlier in the season. Now it seems he's setting his feet and maintaining his balance better.
Just my $0.02
January 28th, 2022 at 11:20 PM ^
Finger, wrist, elbow, shoulder, hip, knee, big toe. All aimed at the center of the basket. Ball goes in the right direction. Repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat. Shoot your free-throws the same way, same motion without the leap. Muscle memory takes over from there.
January 28th, 2022 at 2:20 PM ^
I would add that when either foot is extended, even if you have balance you won't have as strong of a base and less lift. When that happens, more strength is required in the arms and that takes away accuracy and touch.
January 28th, 2022 at 2:38 PM ^
I think of a lot of it depends on how you jump as part of your jump shot.
I was a pretty decent shooter in my younger years. Nothing amazing but better than average. On my shot, I jumped almost exclusively off of my right leg. My left leg was essentially along for the ride. Usually when you shoot like this, you end up with your right-leg extended forward as part of loading for the jump. I think it is more concerning if the right leg is drifting out horizontally than in-front.
I think this is pretty typical of right-handed jump shooters, as you essentially shoot through the right side of your body. You square up with your right shoulder and push up with your right leg.
If you watch Klay Thompson, he often shoots with his right leg extended. Probably not as much as Houstan, but it's there. They talk about this in this shooting analysis video:
https://youtu.be/lrSljNLesBw?t=525
For me, the biggest thing was making sure I went straight up. If you are coming off a screen or movement, there is a tendency to drift during your jump and that increases the difficulty of the shot. I always concentrated on stuffing my right foot through the floor and then really pushing straight up off of it. Of course,I also stepped on the 3-point line a million times doing this, so. :)
January 28th, 2022 at 11:22 PM ^
"If you are coming off a screen or movement, there is a tendency to drift during your jump"
Yes.
January 28th, 2022 at 1:14 PM ^
Nice analysis and visuals. Thanks.
January 28th, 2022 at 1:22 PM ^
Great perspective. I've wondered how/why Caleb has improved his 3-point percentage. And this makes sense.
January 28th, 2022 at 1:32 PM ^
Hmmmm. Will be interesting to see how this analysis holds up as the season progresses. Maybe Caleb has just adjusted to the pace of the college game. Your analysis implies Michigan is really in trouble when HD gets in foul trouble, as it should harm Caleb's effectiveness. Love to see the numbers to back that up (or refute it).
January 28th, 2022 at 1:33 PM ^
The fact that he was getting these sets early in the season makes me think he was hitting them in practice. This is also something that can be practiced and the ability to hit threes running off screens is what made Duncan Robinson a rich man and how he went to have a bigger role in the NBA as a better shooter than he did in college.
I think a lot of it is confidence and dealing with the transition to better defenders with more length in college, etc.
January 28th, 2022 at 1:36 PM ^
I'll throw this in here to sort of contextualize the concept of optimal shot mechanics.
Zak Irvin's shot mechanics were absolutely horrid..........and his shot was wildly inconsistent because of it. He had what we call a "swing shot" in the scouting industry. Meaning he dips the ball below his waist and to his left before commencing his upward motion (similar to Lonzo Ball as a rookie)
Ray Allen probably has some of the cleanest mechanics the world has seen. Hardly any unnecessary motion and he was as prolific as it comes.
There are execptions...........Reggie Miller had horrible mechanics and yet here we are.
January 28th, 2022 at 2:41 PM ^
It's like having an ugly golf swing. Doesn't matter how ugly if a) you can make it work and b) you can repeat it almost perfectly all the time. And Reggie was ruthless in catch-and-shoot situations after weaving through 7 bodies.
January 28th, 2022 at 6:32 PM ^
Miller certainly had a funky shot. But talk about a guy who could hit off balance shots.
January 28th, 2022 at 1:39 PM ^
Matt, could you comment on whether you think it would be realistic for Caleb to eventually develop into a shooter that will be able catch and shoot after running around screens? Does he have that potential?
January 28th, 2022 at 1:42 PM ^
To be candid, I'm skeptical. We're talking about guy that has a set shot, is a really limited athlete and can't handle the ball all that well. That screams stationary catch + shoot type that attacks closeouts from time to time.
January 28th, 2022 at 1:49 PM ^
So Michigan and Houstan basically have to reverse how they use him going forward? Early season Houstan took his shots off screens and cuts. Now Houstan needs to start from a set position and drive or pass against aggressive close outs. In essence, move to shoot needs to be shoot to move.
Out of curiosity, which one is more valuable? (My guess is the latter, as players who can run around and shoot accurately are far rarer and harder to guard than someone who has to park in a corner in order to bomb away.)
January 28th, 2022 at 1:57 PM ^
Correct. Guys that can hit perimeter shots off movement are definitely more valuable. It's very hard to find those types, particularly at the college level.
When you can run a guy off a down screen/DHO and 2 defenders are at screen level to prevent an open shot, then you find yourself in 4 on 3 situations inside the arch which are obviously advantageous. That's what made Duncan Robinson so valuable to the Heat up until this season, the ability to hit shots on the move.
January 28th, 2022 at 2:00 PM ^
It seems odd that he would have been projected as a one-and-done guy if he couldn't hit shots consistently off screens. At the next level he will need to do that.
January 28th, 2022 at 2:14 PM ^
He wasn't projected as a one-and-done by everyone (namely your author). I'll subtly throw this in - take a look at who broke his commitment news and how that correlates to how high he was in some early mock drafts...........I'll leave you to decipher whether they are connected.
January 28th, 2022 at 2:20 PM ^
IIRC this was also the limitation with Duncan while he was at Michigan...in the pros he has developed a quicker shot and now easily hits those dribble handoff three attempts as well as relocations.
I am optimistic that Caleb will also be able to evolve his shooting - hopefully this evolution can occur while he is still at Michigan.
Really positive on where he is trending right now...we'll see how he handles Breslin
January 28th, 2022 at 2:25 PM ^
It seemed like Juwan was trying to use him as his Heat Duncan Robinson when that's just not what he is. He's an elite stationary shooter who will learn where to be and how to create passing lanes for himself for open shots, but he's not Duncan Robinson
January 28th, 2022 at 2:27 PM ^
People have been saying this for a bit now, and your detailed analysis is persuasive. Do you think, Matt, that over time he improves his shooting off of pick and rolls, etc., or have we glimpsed a limitation that lowers his NBA ceiling, too?
EDIT: I see that this question has been answered above.
January 28th, 2022 at 3:01 PM ^
Cam Johnson may be a decent comparison. He was drafted 11th, albeit with a few more years of polish. You can still be a great shooter as a spot up guy (and it doesn't mean he's gonna miss literally every shot off movement in his life - he probably just won't be super efficient doing so).
Houstan has also shown some potential as a passer which is intriguing for a guy his size. If he can be elite as a shooter and when driving closeouts to create for teammates, that's an extremely valuable complementary skill set for an NBA team.
By the way, one of the darlings of NBA Draft heads right now is Bennedict Mathurin who played on Houstan's FIBA team last year. Houstan and Mathurin were probably equally good at that time. In the long run, a couple month stretch is pretty insignificant
January 28th, 2022 at 3:37 PM ^
Thanks, this is helpful. We've seen Hunter Dickinson develop a promising right hand; anything seems possible. But I was curious about the track record of other players shooting on the run. Seems like a higher order skill.
January 28th, 2022 at 2:28 PM ^
One more item I'd like to add to the discussion - depth perception. It can change when one is moving............to what degree, or whether applicable at all, there is no analysis for this that one can subjectively/objectively present. Could be at play here as well.
January 28th, 2022 at 2:36 PM ^
I think Caleb's slow motion jumper and need to be relatively stationary may be the thing that keeps him in school one more year. Spend the off-season to get more "Reggie Miller" in his game, then go #1 in the draft. Ideally after winning the 2023 NCAA title.
January 28th, 2022 at 2:44 PM ^
Learning to properly square off after catching on the move can be learned. Look at what Duncan Robinson has done post-college to improve on that.
January 28th, 2022 at 3:17 PM ^
I think this is another example of how much was asked of Houstan this year given the rest of the roster. Not only did he have to play the 3 exclusively, he had to defend wings, he had to play 30+ minutes, he had to carry the shooting load, etc. In HS he was mostly a catch-and-shoot guy because he was often wide open and there were other studs on his team.
Look at Duncan Robinson - who was purely just a catch-and-shoot at Michigan but now runs all over the place for the Heat. That off-balance, quick-release, hand-in-your-face skill is something that takes time to develop. Stauskas was a little like that too - as a freshman he was a corner guy and as a sophomore he had to take more moving threes.
I think Houstan would be an absolute terror as a sophomore after a year under his belt and time in the weight room.
January 28th, 2022 at 4:13 PM ^
Really good insights and you're absolutely correct: he struggled with the shots set up for him coming off screens earlier in the season. Much better as a corner gunner playing off others drawing help.
It does seem like you're underselling the impact of the PnR ballhandlers, particularly that Jones has become enough of a threat both shooting and driving that teams are hard hedging him (and he's successfully finding the open guys at least on these plays). The hard hedge is literally the defense saying: we're doubling the ball handler to prevent him from driving or shooting because we're worried enough about him to sacrifice being 3 on 4 on the other guys.
The second clip that you labeled as Dickinson getting doubled wasn't the case. Jones was doubled on the hard hedge, he got it to Dickinson who has a single defender rotated on him (TJD), and found the open Houstan whose man had rotated to replace TJD on Diabate.
Same with the Faulds pass. Eli drew the hard hedge, kicked to Twill who was being tagged by Faulds guy, he found Faulds who drew Houstan's guy on the rotation and Faulds kicked to Houstan.
The credit on these mostly goes to the PnR ballhandlers that are enough of a threat to draw the hard hedge / double and are able to pass out of it to the resulting open guys. Good on the secondary guys for continuing to find the open man after rotations come, but they aren't being doubled. They're simply drawing rotations that the defense decided they'd live with in order to hard hedge the ball handlers.
Both Dickinson and Jones (and even Diabate) are creating well for others, with the recent developments being the increased respect Jones is getting. Far cry from simply backing off of him like teams were doing earlier in the year.
January 28th, 2022 at 10:33 PM ^
Frankie has shooting limitations but his quickness allows him to get anywhere he wants and he’s been able to penetrate and set people up as well. He will be lethal with the ball by next year.
January 28th, 2022 at 5:23 PM ^
Please don't let this jinx it lol
January 28th, 2022 at 5:23 PM ^
Obviously kidding, love your stuff Matt.
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