Destroyer of #1 Overall Prospects [Who's Next]

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Matt EM January 13th, 2021 at 10:26 AM

This recruiting update serves as a mere appetizer to Brian's forthcoming column of Michigan's drubbing of Wisconsin last night, where the Wolverines held a forty(!) point lead midway through the second half. But what an appetizer it is, with Frankie Collins making a statement on the big stage, Caleb Houstan looking college-ready(!!) and the number one recruiting class in America moving up(!!!) the rankings.

Collins Takes on Bates

All eyes were on Frankie Collins as his Air Nado squad took on #1 overall prospect Emoni Bates and Ypsi Prep on Sunday night in Dallas. With '21 offer Jaden Hardy opting out of the season, this was an opportunity to see what Collins looked like as the undisputed number one option on the team, and he did not disappoint.

Frankie carved up the Ypsi Prep defense early in the first quarter, forcing several fouls and compelling YP to opt for a zone defense to preclude Collins' dribble penetration. The future Michigan PG was relatively quiet for the remainder of the first half before going bonkers in the second stanza, finishing with a game-high 28 points while dishing out 6 assists and nearly leading Air Nado to a come-from-behind victory.

In a game featuring the aforementioned Bates and no less than six more high-major prospects on the court at all times, Collins was the best player on the court by a fairly wide margin. He was electric in the open court, converting at the rim with explosion and sudden euro-steps, but his shot creating ability in half-court settings is what popped out from an evaluation perspective. Frankie was superb at navigating through traffic, collapsing the YP defense and finding teammates on dumpoffs and kickouts. His six assists don't do his playmaking justice. 

Collins is going to be physically ready to compete for playing time the day he sets foot on campus in Ann Arbor. His athleticism and playmaking ability for others means that he may crack the rotation early on, and depending on the status of Smith or potential transfers, may even find himself as a guy that plays more than 10 minutes a game as a freshman. While his jumper remains an area for improvement, you simply don't find may players with Frankie's level of spatial awareness and passing. 

[Hit THE JUMP for new film on Caleb Houstan, updated rankings and 2021 tidbits]

Houstan Looks Ready To Plug and Pay

Caleb Houstan took the court for a Montverde team riding a 39 game winning streak at the prestigious NIBC event in the DC-area. The event is functionally a bubble-like environment for the best HS teams in the country, with 8 of the top 20 programs in America converging in one gym over the weekend. 

Houstan came in with a reputation as one of the premier shooters in the nation and he cemented his status as such while flashing a bit more. He knocked down multiple triples in every game, displaying outstanding consistency in his shot mechanics with good balance on a really effortless stroke. His perimeter shotmaking ability is beyond reproach at this point, but the revelation over the weekend was Caleb's passing. 

Houstan had several outstanding dimes, several of which were in tight spaces and delivered from various angles. While he doesn't project as an on-ball type at the next level, his ability to deliver precision passes as both a ball-mover and when doubled/blitzed bodes well for his utility in Ann Arbor. Duncan Robinson really improved in this area last year with the Miami Heat and it definitely paid dividends for Erik Spoelstra in tandem with his gravity as a shooter. 

Caleb's size and shotmaking ability make him a candidate to fill the Isaiah Livers role as a knockdown shooter with some defensive versatility. Despite the rankings, Houstan doesn't appear to be a sure thing one and done in the mold of Moussa Diabate. Potentially having him in Ann Arbor for multiple years would give Juwan Howard a ton of flexibility with both lineups and recruiting, as Caleb can likely play two positions on both ends of the court regardless of competition. 

Michigan Signees Moves Up The Rankings

Rivals updated their 2021 rankings yesterday, with all 6 signees making small gains.

The majority of these rankings are in the appropriate range, with Moussa Diabate being the exception. There aren't 10 prospects in America better than Moussa, let alone 25. Perhaps even more perplexing is that Rivals' lead analyst appears to be Florida-based Rob Cassidy. Presumably he's viewed Diabate live on multiple occasions considering proximity. I'd love for Cassidy, or anyone else for that matter, to explain the merits of that ranking considering NBA potential, current production, competition level and raw talent/athleticism. 

Tidbits on Remaining 2021 Offers

Top 30 big Efton Reid took to Twitter in early December to inform everyone that he would be cutting his list soon. Soon is apparently a relative term, as a month later said list has yet to be released. Michigan had been heavily involved here along with Ohio State, Pitt and Virginia in recent months, but things may have cooled a bit. In a late December piece with 247, Reid does not expressly mention Michigan, while commenting on both Ohio State and Virginia.  

I've checked in on the situation, and it appears that Efton has increasing interest in exploring the professional option. I'm not stating that it is a foregone conclusion Reid takes the pro route (I don't necessarily think the market is robust), but the desire to carry out due diligence is something that appears to align with his delay in terms of the college recruitment process. While Michigan needs another big, having the number one recruiting class in America means that Juwan Howard has the luxury of waiting things out here, particularly with immediate eligibility transfers expected to be abundantly available in a few months. 

I've long held that 2021 number one overall prospect Chet Holmgren is likely headed to Gonzaga, despite optimism that he'll land at Michigan from various others. Gonzaga does indeed appear to be on the cusp here, with five high-confidence crystal balls for the Zags coming in over the last two weeks. While I don't necessarily think an announcement is imminent, I don't think Michigan is in position to pull him away from Mark Few barring a major change of heart.

4-star big Charles Bediako is close to a decision and had this to say about Michigan in a late December article with 247:

"Michigan is good. Coach Howard and the rest of the coaching staff are great. I've built a great relationship with coach Howard. He played my position so he knows what it takes and can help me get to the next level and with his history in the NBA I think he can get me ready for that. Their message is to keep working and that the way I fit in the system would be running in transition, ball screens, and post ups as my body starts to get better."

Nothing has changed here, Alabama still remains the heavy favorite per my intel and the crystal ball has six picks all in favor of the Crimson Tide. Again, not a huge concern with portal options and Michigan being perhaps the most attractive transfer destination in the country with the type of season the Wolverines have put together to date.

Comments

ak47

January 13th, 2021 at 10:52 AM ^

I'm worried about the guards for next year. We don't know what people will decide to do but if smith, brooks, and brown leave that is a lot of playing time at the 1 and 2 to get filled by Zeb, Collins and Bufkin and means two true freshman playing 15+ minutes a game from the drop. Well more than that since we will likely also be replacing Franz and Livers too.

WolvinLA2

January 13th, 2021 at 11:18 AM ^

I agree with this - Zeb, Collins and Bufkin plus a talented, experienced transfer doesn't look too bad. Anyone with eligibility would look at Michigan as a great place to propel them to the league and/or play for a title.

I'm more interested in either HD sticking around or us adding a grad transfer big who can start so we can play Houstan/Diabate at the 3/4.

1989 UM GRAD

January 13th, 2021 at 11:06 AM ^

I share your concern, especially re: the point guard position.  

Anyone have any clue if Smith or Brooks would be interested in another year of college?  

It seems possible/plausible that players who don't have a professional basketball future might want to make progress toward a graduate degree and/or a career in coaching. 

Staying another year at Michigan could be beneficial with either goal in mind...and either would definitely be in the mix for a significant role on next year's team.

Gameboy

January 13th, 2021 at 11:59 AM ^

I would think Smith would be open to staying another year especially considering he did not get a "proper" big time college athletics experience with no crowd and no extensive travels. He is not even going to get a whiff from NBA (Chaundee is another matter), why not stay and get a graduate degree?

Eat Your Wheatlies

January 13th, 2021 at 11:46 AM ^

Maybe, but is it possible that Brown, Brooks, and Smith all return? And what about Franz? Is he a sure thing to leave? His game has been tremendously rounded this year, but is it stuff that NBA scouts are drooling over?

In theory, we could have a very veteran team, and Coach Howard will have some tough decisions  figuring out how to best utilize a very good roster.

Gameboy

January 13th, 2021 at 12:02 PM ^

There is absolutely ZERO chance that they all return. Franz is gone if he keeps this up. I would think Brooks probably looks for a change as well. I feel like Chaundee just wanted a chance to win and after this season he probably gets his wish.

Smith on the other-hand wanted to win and experience the big-time college basketball atmosphere. He did not quite get that this year so I would not be surprised if he comes back.

But there is no way all of them come back.

njvictor

January 13th, 2021 at 11:16 AM ^

It's kinda feeling like the 2021 class is done besides maybe taking a transfer. It really is puzzling though how Michigan's performance this year doesn't seem to be influencing anyone at all. Like for Reid and Bediako, yes you may not get a bunch of minutes your freshman year, but after that you're likely going to get a lot of minutes with one of the best teams in the country with one of the best staffs for big men in the country

Any updates of note on 2022 guys? 

My Name is LEGIONS

January 13th, 2021 at 11:40 AM ^

Am sorry to say, but if they don't see whats happening here, that Juwan is crushing it like none other, bringing his NBA game to college, and that our team is becoming the new Kentucky, then the recruits are about the bag.

MSU, Duke, Kentucky... two of the three might fall off their perch...   and us and Gonzaga are replacing them, as the premier college programs.   By the time Juwan returns to NBA, we will be the new Kentucky.

Wolverheel

January 13th, 2021 at 11:49 AM ^

Dotman at 247 has implied that Michigan basically stopped pursuing Reid after Diabate committed. This was before the season started. I asked him recently if Hunter's potential one and done status changed things and he said no, 2021 is done unless Chet decides to come here and center needs would be addressed in the portal if Hunter does leave. 

Keep in mind that Diabate can 100% be a 5 at the college level and probably projects there long term in the NBA. 

AC1997

January 13th, 2021 at 11:31 AM ^

I love our class and I don't expect any additional HS kids to join it for better or worse.  Depending on attrition from the current roster and any interest in seniors wanting to stay around another year....I think we'll be in the market for a veteran guard and back-up post player.  

If Johns and Dickinson both stick around next year, the need for a post is minimal because you can add Diabate and cover all of your post needs.  

The guard situation is more dicey.  I love Collins and think he's going to have the potential for a good season, but when you have to find 80 minutes for guards and your only options are freshmen and Zeb that's not idea.  We see this year how important both Brooks and Smith are.  I'd take either back in a heartbeat.  Otherwise I think you are looking for a veteran combo guy to ease the pressure on the three young guys.  

Curbelo over at Illinois is about best-case scenario for true freshmen point guards.  He's solid and will be a great player in time, but you live with a lot of ups and downs.  Meanwhile none of MSU's young guards are working out yet and IU's star freshman PG can't even see the court.  

My Name is LEGIONS

January 13th, 2021 at 11:36 AM ^

Collins seems to know how to use those two extra steps effectively.  Lets hope Izzo doesn't campaign to the refs about travelling.   I like his game.

Houstan looks to pass first, which is great.

Denarded

January 13th, 2021 at 11:38 AM ^

Matt, any intel on Jalen Duren the 2022 Center on Montverde? Is he a college prospect at all? Watching him in Houstan's video and seeing some of his highlights that is a grown-ass man. Already has the pro frame and athleticism, would be interested to hear your thoughts on him. 

mi93

January 13th, 2021 at 12:13 PM ^

I watched the UK-Bama game after M-Wisc (and wanted to stab my eyes it so bad).  That was horrible basketball.  I can't fathom any player watching those two games and wanting to go to Bama over M.  Nate Oates' offense is chuck it from 3 at the first "good" look or drive and hope for the D to collapse to create a dish and layup.  That won't help anyone get ready for today's NBA.

That said, best of luck Charles.