THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#29 Michigan (10-7, 4-3 Big Ten) vs #18 Michigan State (15-4, 6-2 Big Ten)
WHERE	Breslin Center Presented By Homesure Lending East Lansing, MI
WHEN	12:30 PM Saturday
THE LINE	Kenpom: MSU -5 Torvik: MSU -5
TELEVISION	CBS

THE OVERVIEW

This was supposed to be Michigan's second game against MSU this year, but COVID intervened. This year's version of MSU got off to a good start against a tough nonconference schedule. They lost mostly uncompetitive games against #9 Kansas and #2 Baylor; they won narrowly against #30 Loyola-Chicago and #17 UConn on neutral floors. Then they had the easiest Big Ten schedule possible to start: Minneosta twice, PSU, Nebraska, Northwestern twice. They lost at home to NW, then had an impressive 12-point win at the Trohl Center before losing to an Illinois team that had neither Curbelo no Cockburn.

So they're suddenly wobbling all over the place. Michigan will have to play better (and getter a better whistle) than they did against Northwestern to win here but this is not insurmountable.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

We've dropped the cyan from Houstan and Jones for obvious reasons.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

MSU is full go.

THE THEM

Bingham is a pterodactyl [Campredon]

MSU is exceptionally balanced this year; no starter has more than 22% usage. So we'll start with the tall guys. Marcus Bingham is back for his senior year and Izzo's actually playing him some because the lure of Thomas Kithier is no longer around to distract him. Bingham's always been mercurial but Izzo's reluctance to use him has puzzled. He's a major defensive presence with double-digit block rates the last three years; this year he's 9th nationally at 14% and first in Big Ten play at 12. He's solidly above average as a post defender at 65th percentile.

Offensively, Bingham is great as a finisher and poor when asked to create his own offense. His rangy arms make him an appealing target on lobs and anything he gets off a cut or in transition is a dunk. However, he's averaging 0.7 PPP on post-ups. Bingham's always been a beanpole and can't back Big Ten-level bigs down.

This is only good enough for 20 MPG, but this year it's because their backup is playing pretty well. So at least there's that.

Joey Hauser returns as a finesse stretch four. Hauser's a relatively effective spot-up shooter and a guy who gets to the line, but it's grim in the post on both ends of the floor. He's 13th percentile in both offense and defense. Izzo absurdly runs some small-ball lineups with Hauser at the 5, which are inexplicable but assuredly will not happen against Michigan.

Attacking Hauser with Diabate in the post has to be a priority for Michigan, especially if Dickinson can float to the perimeter and take Bingham with him. Unfortunately Hauser's going to be on the bench for about half the time—possibly more if he's getting lit up—because MSU is pretty deep this year.

SF Gabe Brown is Caleb Houstan. He's 6'8", 215 and playing the 3. About 75% of his half court usage is spot-up shooting. He is excellent when unguarded and kind of meh when guarded, and he's not any good pulling up off the dribble. He's a middling defender at best. He, like Houstan, is shooting exactly 36.9% from three. Gabe Brown is Caleb Houstan.

Brown has a couple of advantages over Houston: he's a deadeye FT shooter with a 90% career mark and he's less turnover-prone. Also he is a better defender than Houstan on Synergy and I believe that, though Houstan is improving rapidly and Brown more or less is what he is at this point.

Freshman Max Christie is a hyped five star who's off to an all right start, shooting 45/34/82 and chipping in some OREBs and blocks because he's a 6'6" guy playing the two. The question that jumps immediately to mind is "will this guy light up Eli Brooks on pull-ups like everyone has this year." Survey says probably not since he's shooting 35% on pull-ups, but given how Brooks's 2021-22 has gone so far my dude is cursed.

Maybe a bigger concern for Michigan is that Christie catch-and-shoot opportunities are contest-immune—he's actually shooting better when guarded than unguarded, per Synergy's tracking—and will likely be even more contest-immune against a guy who's half a foot shorter than him. Thus far Christie's been a pretty bad defender, as freshmen tend to be.

Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker starts and gets a bare majority of the minutes at the point. Both of MSU's point guards are putting up absurd assist rates; Walker's 41 is 7th nationally. He initiates almost all of his own offense and is a pull-up threat from three but not so much inside the line. He takes a fair number of bad long twos he's hitting at a 26% clip and he's just 43% at the rim.

On the other hand, when you add passes into his PNR production he checks in at 84th percentile. This is in part because Bingham is a deadly guy to have in the dunker spot. The dilemma for Michigan will be Walker's pull-up threat from the outside. Historically he's a 35% three point shooter with a ton of pull-ups mixed in; this year he's shooting 53%, albeit on just 30 attempts. He gets three-quarters of his usage inside the line, where he's hitting 36%.

The prescription here appears to be shots shot shots-shots-shots for this guy, particularly anything that is not a three. I'd rather live and die by pull up threes from Walker than lobs to Bingham. 

The MSU bench:

• Beefy Julius Marble backs up Bingham at the 5. Marble is only listed at 6'9"—and looks an inch or two shorter than that—but he's an effective Nix/Ward sort of dude who backs down lighter guys  in the post and is impossible to put under the basket on the other end. He is not a good matchup for Diabate; Pete Nance is pretty similar physically and Marble obliterated him on a 7/7 night. Michigan is going to want to balance their minutes such that Diabate-at-the-five corresponds with Bingham.
  
  FWIW, Marble's not a great rebounder, has too many turnovers, and is a black hole on offense.
• Malik Hall actually gets starters minutes at the 4 even though he comes off the bench. He's been shooting out of his mind, hitting 62/54 from the floor thanks to an analytics-friendly distribution of shots that is almost literally all rim/threes. He's another excellent finisher on PG assists and also has a back to the basket game that opposing fours find difficult to check.
• Freshman Jaden Akins was advertised as a point in high school; he is very much a shooting guard in the context of this team. Akins is shooting 44/39 but has struggled at the line so far and has an elevated TO rate given his role. He's still way better than Emoni Bates.
• Sophomore AJ Hoggard gets just under half of MSU minutes, the vast majority of which are spent as the point. Hoggard still can't shoot at all. He's shooting 29% on threes and 22% on long twos. Despite that he's got similarly absurd assist numbers—second nationally. He also has a TO rate of 33 in Big Ten play, which is kind of incredible. Any shot away from the rim from Hoggard is a win but dude has found a knack for making plays for others despite his clear limitations.

THE TEMPO FREE

MSU's real good at everything except turnovers at both ends:

MSU takes relatively few threes despite being 13th at canning them; the other notable stat that leaps out is an assist/FGM percentage of 64%, which is top 20. Almost all of these come from the point guards, with Hauser and Hall chipping in from the four a little.

Defensively, Bingham almost singlehandedly sees MSU up to 7th in blocks nationally.

THE KEYS

would be nice to have this matchup again but alas [Campredon]

Contain the point guards. Easier said than done but if Michigan's able to push shotmaking away from the PGs MSU will struggle. Marble and Hall have done some work in the post but Marble's expected contribution probably isn't much—he's averaging 2.5 shots per game against Not Northwestern.

Hoggard seems like an obvious guy to run drop coverage on; Walker is tougher but if he's taking under two threes a game I mean I'm living with that instead of Bingham getting fed as a roll guy.

Crush them in the post. Diabate versus Hauser needs to be a blowout if Michigan's going to win this game. Michigan's also going to need more than they got from Dickinson last year (26 points and 8 TOs across two games). MSU doubled heavily and Dickinson didn't make the right passes out. They are likely to do that again because Dickinson can put Bingham under the basket and shoot over Marble. Dickinson's more than doubled his assist rate this year, so here's hoping.

Hope Eli Brooks has been forgiven by the Baba Yaga. There's not much Michigan's going to be able to do to deal with  Max Christie's shooting, which is just going to be available whenever MSU wants an okay catch and shoot opportunity even if a short Michigan guy is closing out well. If he goes off it's going to be tough sledding. Let's goooo reversion to the mean.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

MSU by 5.