THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#24 Michigan vs #131 Ball State
WHERE	Crisler Center Ann Arbor, Michigan
WHEN	7:03 pm Eastern Wednesday, Dec. 2
THE LINE	KenPom: M -14 Torvik: M -15.5 Vegas: M -14.5
TELEVISION	BTN PBP: Chris Vosters Analyst: Stephen Bardo

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

We've kept the lineup the same until there's an official change. Hunter Dickinson could take over as the starting center any game now; Chaundee Brown is also making a case for being in the opening five. Whether or not they start, those two will get a lot of minutes.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Yes, that is former UConn guard Khalid El-Amin's son starting at the point. There are a couple significant injury absences: guard Jarron Coleman, who was the MAC Freshman of the Year last season, and grad transfer wing Reggie Jones both missed the opener and aren't expected back.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Ball State is in their eighth season under the guidance of head coach James Whitford, who's taken the program from MAC bottom-feeder to winning at least ten conference games in four of the last five years while fielding some excellent man-to-man defenses. According to Synergy, BSU played one possession of zone defense all of last season, which will come as a relief after the Oakland game.

They've had a week to prepare for Michigan after losing their opener at #194 Northern Kentucky by a single point. Notably, NKU is a zone-heavy defensive team, and we saw on Sunday how that can trip up a good team that hasn't had the chance to practice much zone offense yet. The Cardinals beat Georgia Tech on the road last year, so the Wolverines can't expect to play as poorly as they did against Oakland and escape with a victory.

Extreme slasher KJ Walton is the top offensive option and an unusual player. The 6'3, 200-pound guard is in his sixth year after playing two years as a high three-star signee at Mizzou, transferring, and getting hurt for most of 2019-20. Going back to 2018-19 to look at his last full season, Walton's statistical profile is remarkable. He used 24% of the team's possessions with a black hole-like 7% assist rate, attempted only 11 three-pointers all season (making one), shooting 54% on 276(!) two-pointers, and drawing over five fouls per game while hitting 71% at the line. His shot chart is wild:

Keeping Walton away from the rim is a priority. I expect Chaundee Brown to get that assignment when he's on the floor. Good offense is also one of the best defenses against Walton; he's much more effective on the fast break than in halfcourt sets.

I'm not sure who the nominal point guard is on this team with Coleman sidelined. Their three primary passers from last season are gone or unavailable, and those guys all had turnover rates that outstripped their assist rates. Walton is a black hole. One returner at guard, Luke Bumbalough, is an extreme Just A Shooter™ who made 33% of his threes as a freshman.

That leaves senior Ishmael El-Amin as the starter who most resembles a point guard even though he mostly played off the ball in his first three seasons. I assume he knows some tricks to the trade since his dad is UConn championship-winning lead guard Khalid El-Amin. That hasn't manifested in his career thus far, though; he graded out in the 34th percentile as a pick-and-roll ballhandler as a junior, per Synergy. He had three assists and four turnovers in the opener. He's much better as a spot-up shooter; here's his chart from last season:

The team leader in assists against NKU was 6'6 power forward Kani Acree, though I assume that was because he was operating from of the middle of the zone—he wasn't a volume passer at all last year. He's taken exactly 44 twos and 44 threes in his career; he's made 27 of the former (good!) and nine of the latter (yikes!). He gets most of his points attacking closeouts (maybe don't close out too hard on him), in transition, and on the occasional putback.

While the rest of the lineup is undersized, 6'10, 255-pound redshirt junior center Blake Huggins has some heft to him. He's barely seen the floor before this season—his three career 10+ minute outings came two seasons ago—so I can't tell you much about him beyond that. He posted five points (2/3 FG, 1/2 FT), eight rebounds (five offensive), and three blocks in 22 minutes against NKU before fouling out. He may have a tough time staying out of foul trouble against Dickinson.

Whitford leaned heavily on his main five in the opener, though they weren't the starting five. 6'8, 210-pound senior Brachen Hazen started at center but only played six minutes; he's reportedly dealing with a back injury. 6'8, 200-pound junior Miryne Thomas started over Acree at the four but played 16 minutes to Acree's 29; both power forwards are also limited due to injury.

Creighton transfer Jalen Windham is eager to shoot but didn't do so very well last year. Appropriately named Zach Gunn is the designated JAS off the bench; he's a career 34% three-point shooter. Two other bench players, center Ben Hendriks and guard Teemu Suokas, saw the court in the opener while not using a single possession between them.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

Please keep in mind that this is a one-game sample for Ball State and two games for Michigan.

Last year, BSU was one of the most three-point heavy teams in the country even though they made 33.5% of their triples. Even though Teague helped the offense to a good two-point mark, the rest of the offense—turnovers, rebounding, drawing fouls, free throw shooting—was bad, and they finished 235th in adjusted efficiency.

On the other end, they posted the #37 adjusted defensive efficiency in the country. They were solid all-around and particularly good at preventing three-point looks and assisted baskets.

THE KEYS

FAFW. At least when Walton is driving the offense, Michigan needs to wall up and do all it can to keep him from getting to the rim. He gets tunnel vision and isn't going to create much on kickouts, so the defense can create some turnovers and bad shots by collapsing on him and making sure his looks aren't clean. The outside shooters aren't scary enough to expect them to punish the Wolverines too often if Walton deigns to pass.

Feed the beast. A foul-prone, inexperienced starting center with more inexperience and less size backing him up? I have a brilliant, original idea to get the ball to the freshman ent.

Keep BSU out of transition. Ball State has a bunch of guards/wings who can get out and run but are going to struggle to score in the halfcourt. Michigan is coming off a game where they turned the ball over way too much for anyone's tastes, though there's a huge "funky zone in game two of a weird season" caveat attached. The Cardinals are going to play man defense, so Michigan can focus on running their normal sets, taking care of the ball, and probably sending a maximum of two players to the offensive glass.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 14.

Play this game in the halfcourt and it's going to be difficult for BSU to keep up.