Hoops Preview 2014-15: Big Ten Outlook, Part Two Comment Count

Ace November 5th, 2014 at 2:47 PM

Previously: Gardening Lessons (The Story)Preview PodcastPreseason All-Big Ten TeamsPoint GuardsWings Part 1 (LeVert, Irvin), Wings Part 2 (Chatman, Wilson, Dawkins, MAAR), Bigs (Donnal, Doyle, Bielfeldt), Media Day Player InterviewsBig Ten Newcomers, Big Ten Outlook Part 1

After yesterday's look at the bottom half of the Big Ten, it's time to check out the top seven squads in the conference. There's one certainty heading into the season: Wisconsin is the favorite. After that, question marks abound. Can Ohio State score? Can Michigan hold up inside? Can Izzo work his magic with an underwhelming roster? Is Nebrasketball for real? I don't claim to have answers, so here goes nothing...

1. Wisconsin (Last Year: 30-8, 12-6 B1G, lost in Final Four)


Frank Kaminsky (#44) is the prototype John Beilein big man. [Fuller]

Head Coach: Bo Ryan; 704-224 career, 321-121 at Wisconsin (15th year)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 6th (#1 B1G)
Key Returners: G Traevon Jackson, G Josh Gasser, G Bronson Koenig, F Sam Dekker, F Nigel Hayes, C Frank Kaminsky
Key Losses: G Ben Brust
Top Newcomers: F Ethan Happ

When looking at the Big Ten predictions, there are only two squads that are locked into their positions: Rutgers, bringing up the rear, and Wisconsin, the unanimous choice to win the conference.

It's easy to see why the experts love the Badgers. Bo Ryan unleashed an offense that was eminently watchable (gasp!), finishing fourth nationally in adjusted efficiency, which allowed Wisconsin to not just overcome a step back on defense, but ride a stellar last two months of the season into a Final Four berth before falling to Kentucky by a point. (Know that feel, Wisco bros.) Ryan's squad loses just one major contributor, Ben Brust, and have a ready-made replacement in sophomore Bronson Koenig.

Frank Kaminsky is the leading preseason candidate for Big Ten Player of the Year after becoming an inside-outside force at the center position last season; John Beilein may go so far as to hurt a fly if it resulted in a seven-footer with Kaminsky's ability ending up in Ann Arbor. The rest of the frontcourt is excellent, as well; Sam Dekker is arguably the top draft prospect in the Big Ten, an athletic slasher who could be really difficult to stop if he gains consistency with his outside shot, while big-bodied sophomore Nigel Hayes was so effective on the block even the notoriously freshman-averse Ryan had to give him significant minutes.

One infuriatingly good shooting specialist, Ben Brust, is finally gone, but Josh Gasser is still around to break hearts and shatter dreams. (Death to backboards, amen.) Koenig should step into the starting lineup and provide a more diverse offensive skillset than Brust, though his three-point shooting isn't yet on Brust's level.

Arguably the weakest spot on this team is point guard, and that features senior third-year starter Traevon Jackson, a solid all-around player whose main weakness is a propensity for going heroball despite being surrounded by more efficient scorers. It'll be a surprise if Wisconsin doesn't finish atop the conference, and they'll be right in the mix for a #1 seed—perhaps even the #1 overall seed.

[Hit THE JUMP to see how the other contenders stack up.]

2. Ohio State (Last Year: 25-10, 10-8 B1G, lost in 2nd round of NCAA)


We didn't shoot last year's OSU games so here's Charles Woodson photobombing the Big Ten title celebration. You're welcome. [Fuller]

Head Coach: Thad Matta; 377-114 career, 275-83 at OSU (11th year)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 14th (#3 B1G)
Key Returners: G Shannon Scott, F Sam Thompson, C Amir Williams
Key Losses: G Aaron Craft, G/F Lenzelle Smith Jr., F LaQuinton Ross
Top Newcomers: G D'Angelo Russell, F Keita Bates-Diop, F Jae'Sean Tate, F Anthony Lee (transfer)

Man, I was so ready to write this team off. Putting the ball in the basket, a rather important aspect of the sport, proved quite difficult for Ohio State last season, and then leading scorer LaQuinton Ross made the surprise decision to enter the NBA draft. (He went undrafted and is slated to play in Italy's top league this season.) With Lenzelle Smith Jr. and Aaron Craft—their #2 and #3 scorers—gone to graduation, it was easy to predict a significant dropoff this season.

But Thad Matta reeled in the best recruiting class in the conference, headlined by swingman D'Angelo Russell, who should immediately add scoring punch to the starting lineup. Fellow freshmen Keita Bates-Diop and Jae'Sean Tate add scoring ability and strong rebounding, respectively, to the frontcourt. Perhaps their biggest addition, however, came in the form of grad-year transfer Anthony Lee, an excellent rebounder in his time at Temple. While he wasn't a particuarly efficient scorer at Temple, his shot chart suggests he could give the Buckeyes some nice post scoring if they give him touches down low:

The newcomers will have to shoulder much of scoring load, however, as the returners are relatively limited offensive players. Shannon Scott is basically Aaron Craft, and while that's great for defense, it also allows opponents to sag off and clog the lane, daring him to take outside shots. Sam Thompson is a spectacular finisher and decent outside shooter, but doesn't create much of his own offense. Amir Williams often has a difficult time just catching the basketball.

Even without Craft, though, this should once again be an elite defensive team. They've got great size and versatility up front; Williams posted a top-100 block rate last season—though he's not always disciplined on the boards as a result—while Lee is a plus defender, Thompson swats more than his fair share of shots due to being a human pogo stick, and the two freshmen provide athleticism (Bates-Diop) and rebounding (Tate). Matta has plenty of options when it comes to putting the right lineup on the floor.

We'll see if the Buckeyes can score enough to be a truly elite team, but at they very least their strong defense should keep them in contention for the conference title once again.

3. Michigan (Last Year: 28-9, 15-3 B1G, lost in Elite Eight)


Michigan finished a cut above the rest of the Big Ten last season. [Fuller]

Head Coach: John Beilein; 701-412 career, 150-94 at Michigan (8th year)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 14th (#4 B1G)
Key Returners: G Derrick Walton, G Caris LeVert, G/F Zak Irvin
Key Losses: G Nik Stauskas, F Glenn Robinson III, C Mitch McGary, C Jordan Morgan
Top Newcomers: F Kam Chatman, F DJ Wilson, C Ricky Doyle, F/C Mark Donnal (redshirt)

Covered extensively already, of course. I was quite tempted to put Michigan second, but held off over concerns that it could be a rough year defensively with a freshman-laden lineup and no Morgan/Horford/McGary holding it down in the paint. On the other hand, if Mark Donnal is able to pull of a passable impression of Kevin Pittsnogle, all bets are off for how good this team can be on offense.

4. Nebraska (Last Year: 19-13, 11-7 B1G, lost in 2nd round of NCAA)


Terran Pettaway shouldered an enormous share of the Nebraska offense. [Fuller]

Head Coach: Tim Miles; 313-250 career, 34-32 at Nebraska (3rd year)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 34th (#8 B1G)
Key Returners: G/F Terran Pettaway, F Shavon Shields, F/C Walter Pitchford
Key Losses: G Ray Gallegos, F/C Leslee Smith (injury)
Top Newcomers: F Jacob Hammond

This pick could look very good or very, very bad by the end of the season. Nebraska was the surprise team of 2013-14, riding a surprisingly strong home court advantage—only Michigan defeated the Huskers in Lincoln—and a breakout year from wing Terran Pettaway to an 11-7 conference record and their first NCAA bid since 1998.

Nebraska returns the core of that squad, with Pettaway flanked by skilled scorers in guard Shavon Shields, whose knack for getting to the line offset some inefficient shooting, and stretch big Walter Pitchford, a 41% three-point shooter who can also finish at the basket. Pettaway did a remarkable job of staying relatively efficient while posting an absurdly high usage rate (31.7%, 25th nationally); for the Huskers to take the next step, getting more help from those secondary options so Pettaway can be a little more effective on a per-possession basis would be huge.

The rest of the lineup is where the question marks pop up, especially with big man Leslee Smith out for the year with a torn ACL. That leaves Pitchford and 6'7" senior David Rivers, who was pretty average in a bit role last season, as the lone proven bigs; help should come in the form of 6'8" freshman Jacob Hammond, but he's a pretty raw prospect.

This squad should go as far as their three core players can carry them; based on last season, that could be surprisingly far, especially if that home-court advantage holds up this year.

5. Michigan State (Last Year: 29-9, 12-6 B1G, lost in Elite Eight)


The Trice/Walton matchup should favor Michigan. [Fuller]

Head Coach: Tom Izzo; 468-187 career, 468-187 at MSU (20th year)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 12th (#2 B1G)
Key Returners: G Travis Trice, G/F Denzel Valentine, F Branden Dawson, C Matt Costello
Key Losses: G Keith Appling, G Gary Harris, F Kenny Kaminski, C Adreian Payne
Top Newcomers: G Lourawls (Tum Tum) Nairn, G Bryn Forbes (transfer)

Take away the uniforms and remove Tom Izzo from the sideline and this is a team people would be expecting to fall hard back to earth this season, but there's that green and white, and there's Izzo, so somehow these Spartans should win double-digit conference games despite losing three excellent players without much in the way of replacements.

Keith Appling is no longer running the point, so in steps Travis Trice, who got close to starter's minutes with Appling banged up for much of last season. (Did you hear about that? You did? Oh, okay.) Trice is a very good three-point shooter, but he lacks Appling's ability to attack the rim and isn't on the same level as a distrubutor; in addition, he's something of a turnstile on defense. Freshman Lourawls "Tum Tum" Nairn—yes, that's his name, and it's spectacular—should compete for minutes at the point right away, though at 5'10" he has his own set of limitations.

Also gone is leading scorer Gary Harris, removing the team's best shot creator and late-clock option. Sophomore Alvin Ellis showed potential in very limited minutes behind Harris, but even if he takes a big leap forward, it's hard to imagine he'll replace Harris' production. The onus for that falls largely on point forward-type Denzel Valentine, a flashy creator who must reign in his instict to go for the Sportcenter Top Ten play when there's a simpler option available—his ability to do so is the biggest key for MSU this season. Transfer Bryn Forbes adds some shooting on the wing.

Branden Dawson is back to provide his usual superlative rebounding and defense; he'll be called upon to provide a bit more scoring after spending much of the last few years getting his offense off putback opportunities. He'll be paired in the frontcourt with Matt Costello, a solid post scorer and defender, but the depth there is lacking after the early departures of Kenny Kaminski and Alex Gauna—Gavin Schilling must cut way down on turnovers to be an effective backup in the post. Oh, and there's no more Adreian Payne around to terrorize the townsfolk, which is welcome news for Michigan fans.

Izzo could work his magic and get this team contending for the conference title. With all that talent gone and a few years of substandard recruiting classes catching up to him, perhaps this is the year Izzo's program finally begins its decline phase. Your guess is as good as mine.

6. Iowa (Last Year: 20-13, 9-9 B1G, lost in NCAA play-in game)


The ever-photogenic Fran McCaffery watched his talented Hawkeyes squad lose seven of their last eight games in '13-14. [Fuller]

Head Coach: Fran McCaffery; 325-240 career, 74-63 at Iowa (5th year)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 32nd (#6 B1G)
Key Returners: G Mike Gesell, F Aaron White, F Jarrod Uthoff, C Adam Woodbury, C Gabriel Olaseni
Key Losses: G Roy Devyn Marble, F Zach McCabe, F Melsahn Basabe
Top Newcomers: G Trey Dickerson (JuCo)

When Iowa blew the doors off Michigan at Carver-Hawkeye Arena last winter, they appeared poised for a deep run into the postseason. Instead, they nearly missed the NCAAs altogether, dropping six of their last seven conference games—including an upset loss to Northwestern in the Big Ten Tournament—before bowing out to Tennessee in the play-in game for an 11-seed.

While much of that squad returns, Fran McCaffery must figure out how to replace the engine of his offense, combo guard Roy Devyn Marble, whose strong passing and all-around scoring ability—especially on the fast break—drove Iowa to post the #5 offense nationally. Point guard Mike Gesell can pick up a fair amount of the slack running the offense, but he just isn't close to the dynamic scoring threat Marble provided.

Instead, forward Aaron White will be taked with more of the scoring load this winter, and his supremely efficient shooting inside the arc (63% in '13-14) could take a hit as a result. Stretch four Jarred Uthoff, a 43% three-point shooter, will also be a bigger part of the offense. 6'6" sophomore Peter Jok should step into Marble's spot in the lineup, and while he fits Marble's profile quite well, it's asking a lot to expect close to the same level of production.

Even without rebounding savant Melsahn Basabe, Iowa is very strong up front, boasting perhaps the best center tandem in the conference with seven-footer Adam Woodbury and the emerging Gabrial Olaseni, who posted the #6 offensive rebounding rate in the country as a reserve last season in addition to a top-75 block rate. Both of those factors will be critical to Iowa's success; without Marble's ability to create, Iowa's path to success likely runs through the interior on both ends of the floor.

If the Hawkeyes can become a dominant squad in the post, they could succeed where last year's squad faltered. If this is just last year's team minus their best player, they could take an unfortunate tumble down the conference standings.

7. Minnesota (Last Year: 25-13, 8-10 B1G, won NIT)


DeAndre Mathieu proved an excellent scorer for a 5'9" guard, though his size can be an issue on defense. [Fuller]

Head Coach: Richard Pitino; 43-27 career, 25-13 at Minnesota (2nd year)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 37th (#9 B1G)
Key Returners: G DeAndre Mathieu, G Andre Hollins, F Joey King, C Maurice Walker, C Elliott Eliason
Key Losses: G Austin Hollins
Top Newcomers: G Nate Mason, G Carlos Morris (JuCo)

Outside of holding serve at home against Ohio State and Wisconsin, Minnesota mostly did the expected in Big Ten play last season, feasting on the conference dregs while losing the vast majority of their battles with the top half of the Big Ten. Richard Pitino's first Gopher squad struggled mightily on defense, posting the worst efficiency mark in the Big Ten, while a propensity for turnovers prevented the offense from firing on all cylinders.

Embodying this is the team's starting point guard, DeAndre Mathieu, who posted great scoring and assist numbers but coughed up the ball far more than is ideal while struggling to guard bigger opposing point guards—and at 5'9", Mathieu was at a size disadvantage against pretty much everyone. The more effiecient of the two Hollinses, Austin, has graduated, leaving Andre—the better outside shooter but a much worse finisher inside the arc—to man the two-spot.

There are some solid pieces up front in centers Maurice Walker and Elliott Eliason; Walker is the more adept post scorer, while Eliason is one of the better rebounders and shot-blockers in the confence, giving the Gophers a strong one-two tandem at the five. Joey King provides solid shooting and little else at the four. The fifth starter will either be a little-used returner—like sophomore Daquein McNeil—or a new face, likely JuCo transfer Carlos Morris.

The key to Minnesota's success is simple: stay the course on offense while cutting down on turnovers and find a way to improve their woeful perimeter defense. With the loss of Austin Hollins, that may be too much to ask.

Comments

JeepinBen

November 5th, 2014 at 3:16 PM ^

Shannon Scott is basically Aaron Craft, and while that's great for defense, it also allows opponents to sag off and clog the lane, daring him to take outside shots.

If this sentence wasn't begging for the Aarball Gif, I don't know what is.

Everyone Murders

November 5th, 2014 at 3:35 PM ^

For two other reasons.  One, does Shannon Scott really have Aaron Craft's grit?  Craft was an exceptionally gritty player, with a lot of grit. 

Second, does Shannon Scott really have Aaron Craft's cheeks?  I've only seen one set of cheeks comparable to Craft's, and that kid can't ball worth a damn:

Yinka Double Dare

November 5th, 2014 at 3:17 PM ^

With KBD and Tate being guys that Beilein targeted pretty early in the process, and given Beilein's track record in that department, I got a bad feeling that OSU has a better recruiting class than they're getting credit for, and it was already considered the best in the conference. Yikes. 

funkywolve

November 5th, 2014 at 3:56 PM ^

I'm not sure which player but pretty sure UM was going after Lavert and someone else.  The someone else signed with OSU.  Lavert is now a projected first rounder and the someone else might not even be on the nba's radar.

That probably doesn't change what you're saying about OSU's class being maybe better then people think.  However, while Matta is a great teacher when it comes to defense, I think a lot of his players do not develop that much on the offensive end.  For as good as Matta recruits, his teams generally aren't that good offensively.

SF Wolverine

November 5th, 2014 at 3:18 PM ^

Color me unconvinced.  I think that they will get much more attention and better play from their opponents this year.  Miles is -- yet another -- high-quality B10 coach, but no one is going to look past them this year. 

ehatch

November 5th, 2014 at 3:19 PM ^

I fully expect OSU to have a season like Kentucky last year.  Struggle a lot early in the year, then just get better and better as the season wears on (even more so than other teams).  They will become the proverbial "team no one wants to face in the NCAA tournament."

 

Question:  Is this predicted order of finish in the B1G or just a power ranking?  Does it take in to account any schedule imbalances?  

123blue

November 5th, 2014 at 3:38 PM ^

One of the tougher pills to swallow about the State (football) game was an Izzo-slurping graphic displayed that noted MSU beat Michigan in basketball last year.  What was omitted were the 2 Michigan wins and Michigan B1G championship.  There is no coach more overrated than Izzo and I'm very excited to see his crew of idiots take a major tumble.  Let's see how Valentine does as the primary option and how Dawson does with regard to not breaking his hand on things.

(side note...don't be alarmed when State runs up some early wins...their OOC schedule is much softer than normal with only one ranked opponent)

123blue

November 5th, 2014 at 4:25 PM ^

Considering that he has (for some years now) failed to live up to his team's preseason expectations (despite being stocked with 4/5*s), I'd call that overrated.  He's a good coach and I don't deny that, but he isn't the basketball jesus that many would make him.  Maybe his hall of fame plaque will list the giant spreads that UNC trucked him by.

PAproudtoGoBlue

November 6th, 2014 at 8:27 AM ^

Since 2007 he’s had his share of talent and this list doesn’t include about 6 other top 100 players over this stretch. 2007 Kalin Lucas #35, D summers #43, C Allen #46 all top 50 nationally, 2008 D Roe #16, Draymond Green, 2009 D Nix, 2010 A Payne #17 , K Appling #37, 2011 B Dawson #17, 2012 G. Harris #19.

That being said he’s a HOF coach. Multiple Final 4s and Championships will be enough to get him there along with his total wins/win%. I don’t like him either but there’s no denying he can coach.

jsquigg

November 5th, 2014 at 3:56 PM ^

There are a lot of variables this year.  After Wisconsin the next six are almost interchangeable.  I'm biased but I think Belein has proven he is very good at dealing with turnover.  Izzo likes to build guys up for four years and this looks like a down year for him.  Matta is a great recruiter but a meh offensive coach at best.  Michigan could be contending again, which would be freaking remarkable.

autodrip4-1968

November 5th, 2014 at 6:34 PM ^

In response to the writer's feelings of OSU having this year's best recruiting class. I say wait for their careers to play out. Based on results of the last 3,4 years Michigan I would like to think U of M has had the best classes. 

Sparty123

November 6th, 2014 at 11:42 PM ^

The meme that Izzo's had "a few years of substandard recruiting classes" (or variations thereof) is tired.  It's also false.  I posted the following back in June so it hasn't been updated, but it makes the point:

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/mbb-recruiting-2015-3-kyle-ahrens-commits-m…

all this said, i think MSU is at best the #3 team in the conference behind Wisky and UM.

[sorry if this is a dupe I copy/pasted in an earlier post and it got eaten by the spam filter]