Who's the Clutch Bucket-Getter?

Who's the crunch time bucket-getter? Seems that was one of the few things lacking this year. Or does everything still run through HD in the post? #mgomailbag

— Tom Peterson (@wolverinetom) May 5, 2021

This one feels a lot easier now that Michigan picked up DeVante' Jones. Not only did Jones have to function as Coastal Carolina's clutch playmaker for years, he did so while playing in two different roles — first as the primary ballhandler, then playing more of an off-ball role last season.

Jones should be headed back to more of a true point guard role; his knack for scoring difficult buckets is still going to carry over. He's an excellent finisher around the rim, and while the opposition will be tougher at Michigan, he'll also have much more space to operate. He was a remarkably effective scorer inside the arc, especially when accounting for his ability to draw fouls and hit free throws at high rates, despite often driving into multiple defenders:

That floater, in particular, is a great shot to have in the arsenal for late-clock and late-game situations, and Jones has one of the best in the country. According to Synergy, he shot 25/51 on runners in 2020-21, putting him in the 80th percentile in efficiency even though he attempted them at a huge volume—only 21 players in the country took more and just four of them surpassed Jones' marksmanship.

In 2019-20, when Jones was used as a point guard, he performed very well as a scorer in both pick-and-roll and isolation situations. His most recent season has tricked some people into doubting his ability to run the point at the Big Ten level; I don't have any concerns there after watching his older games and digging into the numbers.

Jones managed to score in the 78th percentile on pick-and-rolls even though his teammates were lacking. They dragged down his overall pick-and-roll efficiency to the 63rd percentile because they finished average to bad on passes to spot-up shooters (57th percentile), the roll man (19th), and cutters (19th). Despite the poor passing numbers, I really like his vision:

Jones split the ballscreen defense with enticing frequency in the film I watched of him. He can break down the defense when he gets into the lane and they have to respect his touch around the rim.

This is where Hunter Dickinson (and Moussa Diabate and Caleb Houstan and Eli Brooks and... you get it) come back into the picture. Juwan Howard seems likely to put the ball in Jones' hands when it's time for a tough bucket; that doesn't mean Jones is going to have to make all the tough buckets. Michigan has three viable roll threats in Dickinson, Diabate, and Brandon Johns; they have some pick-and-pop potential with the big men and Houstan; they have dangerous spot-up shooters in Houstan and Brooks (and even Johns, when willing). Howard's system can create plenty of buckets, too.

Giving the ball to Jones is a good starting point. Defenses will be in a bind trying to dictate where it goes from there.

[Hit THE JUMP for some roster management questions and shooter emergence possibilities.]

The Other Impact of Transfers

if you're ready, you'll play [Campredon]

Here are two related questions I'll address at once:

#mgomailbag Picking up Jones obviously helps this year’s team, but do you think there’s any long term risk to bringing in transfers, either by less development opportunities, M players transferring, or negative recruiting claiming “Howard will play transfers over you, sign here”?

— Wil Jordan (@Tuba1060) May 5, 2021

Does our pursuit and attainment of Davante Jones say anything about the progress/expectations for Zeb or the incoming freshman guards #mgomailbag

— Rob BG (@Rob_BG) May 5, 2021

I'll start here: a certain amount of roster turnover is a sign of a strong program. That doesn't mean you want multiple transfers in and out of the program every year, but when you're recruiting at Howard's level, there are inevitably going to be players who rightfully believe they'll play a bigger role elsewhere — look no further than Colin Castleton becoming Florida's starting center while Hunter Dickinson took over in Ann Arbor. I don't think you'll find many Michigan fans who'd trade last year's Mike Smith for David DeJulius even given the latter's remaining eligibility, either.

It'll be difficult to negatively recruit against Howard as long as he plays his best freshmen in big roles. Top 50 players don't head to college doubting their ability to at least be a major part of the rotation on even the best teams. Dickinson and Franz Wagner were high-minute players from day one; the same will be the case for Houstan and Diabate and the bench minutes should largely be comprised of the other freshmen. The young guards getting a chance to learn from a seasoned player without being thrown into the fire before they're ready is a benefit, too.

I also doubt Howard is planning to bring in a transfer point guard every year. While that can work out, there are few things a basketball coach loves more than an experienced point guard who's spent years in their system. In the long term, I'm not worried about the impact of transfers on recruiting. This is how college basketball works now; you're going to be hard-pressed to find a big-time program that hasn't brought in an impact transfer over the last couple years.

As for Zeb Jackson specifically, the addition of Jones does say something: Howard doesn't see him as a lock to be a viable Big Ten starter next year, at least as a point guard, which was what the team needed. That's understandable after Jackson looked a ways away in his freshman year. It's far from a death knell for his Michigan career, though. He's still got excellent size and some vertical pop, he got into some high-leverage situations last year, he can play both guard positions, and he doesn't lack confidence. Plus, all that's standing between him and a significant role is beating out a freshman or two.

Knockdown Shooter Dreaming

c'mon 35% or better on decent volume [Campredon]

Hi Ace!

I feel pretty confident that we will have a Kenpom top 10 defense next year in basketball but I’m less confident about the offense.  Our starting lineup may only have 2 shooters (Brooks and Houstan) that opposing teams can’t leave open on the perimeter.  I realize that a returning Hunter Dickinson with a full year of Camp Sanderson and an off season working on post moves with Juwan will be a massive help.  However, how do you see our offense functioning with less perimeter spacing?  If you could pick one player (other than Brooks and Houstan) to become a 40% three point shooter for the year, who would that be?

Also, if we assume 50-55 minutes per game will go to Jones and Brooks at the 1 and 2, how would you ideally want the remainder of those 25-30 minutes per game at the 1 and 2 to be distributed?

Kevin McCarthy
@kevmc21

As Brian has mentioned, a lot more high-low action is easy to anticipate with the Dickinson-Diabate/Dickinson-Johns/Diabate-Johns frontcourt pairings—they're all skilled and can fill either role. If one or two of those bigs can develop a solid outside shot, then I'm not too worried about spacing issues, either.

Which brings us to the second question: the answer is without a doubt Big Minute Brandon Johns, who could really open up the offense if he's a solid outside shooter (which he's already displayed) on consistent, decent volume (less so here). Diabate is a close second but (1) I'm trying to keep my expectations somewhat reasonable and (2) he's got the above-the-rim game to make shooting less important. One of the young guards—pick a guard, any guard—would be my third choice.

I'm ambivalent about how the backup guard minutes are distributed, to be honest. If Frankie Collins and Kobe Bufkin are ready to ball, let them ball. If Jackson takes a leap, that'd be exciting, too. Both starting guard spots will open up in 2022-23, so mostly I want to see that two of these guys look ready to take the next step.