Hoops Hello: Will Tschetter Comment Count

Matt EM July 7th, 2020 at 11:00 AM

While the global health crisis has precluded official visits and physical contact with the staff, that didn’t stop 3star big Will Tschetter from making an unofficial visit to campus on Saturday. It didn’t take long for him to fall in love with Ann Arbor, as he became the second member of the 2021 class when his High School coach announced his commitment via Twitter.

GURU RANKINGS

Rivals ESPN 247 Endless Motor
3*, #25 PF,

#142 Overall
3*, #51 PF,

#4 MN
3*, #46 PF,

#2 MN
3*, #125-175 Range

PF

All four services agree that Tschetter is a three star prospect that is best suited as a PF. There is some numerical discrepancy as to whether he is on the cusp of attaining four-star status as opposed to your generic three-star type. 247 goes with the latter, while Rivals, ESPN and Endless Motor are a bit higher on Will. In a weak class such as 2021, I think he’s on the high end of the three-star spectrum. Frankly, there is very little distinction between #150 and #250 on a functional basis in this class. There is consensus on 6’8 and 225 for height/weight purposes.

SCOUTING

Will Tschetter is a Beilein-esque prospect if one ever existed. A late rising prospect from a small town in Minnesota that did not play on a shoe circuit but shoots the lights out.  

This is a very difficult projection, as the competition level at both the High School and AAU level leave a lot to be desired. Much of his film depicts defenders that are 5-8 inches shorter than Will. That said, Tschetter’s best offensive asset is very clear. He can most definitely knock down shots beyond the arch when his feet are set and he’s relatively open. And that’s a great quality to have from your big. Beyond the obvious points, the mere threat of that shot provides a level of spacing that we sorely lacked at times last season. 

[After THE JUMP: I think we have a classic Wisconsin big!]

In terms of shot mechanics, he essentially has a set-shot with a shot origin that is a bit lower than we’d ideally like to see. That may be cause for concern against longer athletes in the B10, but if he’s getting shots out of pick-and-pop action that will likely be mitigated in those scenarios against slower-footed bigs. 

Will can also generate offense in the post where he displays a solid jump-hook over the left shoulder and has above average footwork on the block. Tschetter loves to take a hard dribble or pivot middle, before spinning baseline or going under the defender once he leaves his feet to create the angle to finish the layup off the backboard.  

On the perimeter he handles the ball a bit at the High School level and looks solid with the ability to change speed/direction with a live dribble, but I don’t anticipate that being a big part of his game for Michigan. His off the bounce game in college probably translates to attacking closeouts and 1-2 dribbles from the elbow area. 

Physically, there is no question Will is a limited athlete that isn’t likely to be a great defender. Any potential issues can be masked through drop coverage to a certain extent though. He also embraces contact when crashing the glass and is generally solid at box-outs and ball pursuit. 

Tschetter is best suited as a big that offers strong position defense against the would-be bullies of the B10. He won’t provide much rim protection and may be susceptible to the occasional blow-by if switched on a guard, but again, drop coverage can hide the lack of agility.   

I had to do a double-take today upon reading the evaluation from Rivals’ Corey Evans that was published yesterday:

What Michigan will be getting in Tschetter is an explosive athlete in the open floor that can lead the break off the defensive glass. He is a more than capable shot maker that can score from each level and brings extra toughness to the hardwood thanks to his time quarterbacking his Stewartville High unit on the football field.

To be candid, I thought the above may have been a typo until I came across Evans’ initial scouting report from May that makes yesterday’s piece seem like a downer:

He is a bouncy bodied 4-man that has the ball skills to jump to the small forward position thanks to abilities in the open floor and shot creation in the half-court. An excellent athlete at the basket that has no issues finishing at the rim, Tschetter brings great confidence to the offensive end. He possesses an accurate jumper to the 3-point line and can hit in a variety of ways, whether it is off of the step-back attempt, catch-and-shoot, or pull-up. He has extended range on his jumper and can hit with a contested hand in his face.

Evans is well-respected in the evaluation industry, but it is rather difficult to reconcile the Rivals ranking with their analysis. 

247 was a bit more realistic with their thoughts that echo my pick-and-pop projection:

Rated as a three-star prospect, Tschetter is someone who should provide shooting from the big man spot for the Wolverines. He also has shown some vertical explosion around the rim, and was one of the most productive players in the state of Minnesota this past season. Look for Tschetter to come in and make an impact starting as a pick and pop big man. He shot nearly 45 percent from three during the season, and has a nice smooth release on his jumper, and should be a weapon for Howard and his staff to use in short sports while he adjusts to the Big Ten game.

OFFERS

Will’s offer list was limited to mid-majors until Arkansas kicked off the high-major party in late May with an offer after the health crisis compelled coaches to evaluate mostly on film. Nebraska, Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Iowa and Cincinnati all followed suit in June. 

HIGH SCHOOL

Stewartville High School (MN) is located in metropolitan Rochester. The Tigers aren’t a highly touted squad on the national scene, but a 24-6 record, sectional runner-up and a top 25 ranking in Minnesota per Max Preps is a solid resume. 

STATS

Tschetter’s junior campaign was acceptable. He put up 34.4 points per game on 45% from distance

VIDEO

Fresh Coast Hoops junior highlights:

Hudl junior highlights:

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

Michigan will have multiple underclassmen at the PF/C spot when Tschetter hits campus. Brandon Johns will be your starting 4 man under reasonable expectations, with Hunter Dickinson likely at the 5. Beyond that, Will’s avenue to an early backup spot is largely dependent on who else Michigan is able to attain in the 2021 class.

A reasonable projection as a freshman probably sees him play sparingly as a backup big against favorable matchups. He’ll flash some offensive skill in limited spots and get exploited defensively from time to time as all freshman do. Will is likely take on a role as an impact rotation player in year 2 or 3 (redshirt may be possible depending on how the 2021 class shakes out), as a stretch big that is a solid rebounder that can score a bit with his back to the basket.  

At his peak, I see Tschetter as a Wisconsin type big during his upperclassmen years. A skilled big that can score in a variety of ways, that likely caps out as an average defender once he gains a full understanding of the defensive concepts and tendencies of the opposition. He has some potential to flirt with all conference accolades as an upperclassmen if Juwan Howard doesn’t fill the roster with pro talent at his position in the next 2 years. 

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

Will is the second member of the 2021 class, joining four-star wing Isaiah Barnes. This class will reach 5 at minimum, with the potential to get to 7 in total. We need another wing, an on-ball guard or two, and perhaps another big. Look for more detail in this week’s roundup.

Comments

njvictor

July 7th, 2020 at 11:26 AM ^

An ideal (and realistic-ish) class for me would be Barnes, Tschetter, Bufkin, Warley, Bediako, and another guard or wing (Cleveland, Ingram, Brizzi, or another PG yet to be offered)

AC1997

July 7th, 2020 at 1:32 PM ^

I posted that idea in the UMHoops Forum and Dylan over there shot it down.  His argument that while there is some similarity (and not a lot of other candidates from recent UM past), Smotrycz really only wanted to shoot corner threes and didn't want to mix it up in the paint or on the glass.  Tschetter is a legit P5 football prospect at TE and someone who shows a willingness to mix it up.  

Other possible comps that were discussed in the thread were:

  • Brandon Johns - He's a much, much better athlete, but they could have very similar roles at least the first couple of years.  
  • Poor Man's Mo Wagner - Not a great comp since Mo was much more skilled on the offensive end and three inches taller.
  • Mark Donnal - Similar story with Smotrycz.  
  • Max Bielfeldt - Some similarity here, though Tschetter is already a legit outside shooter and seems more athletic.  Max had some moments at the end of his 5-year career, but probably a lower ceiling than Will.
  • DeShawn Sims - Obviously we're comparing apples and oranges from a rankings point of view, but their games have some similarity and so does their size.  Not a great comp...but maybe this is Will's ceiling?
  • Chris Young - This was my old-school suggestion because they were both 4-5 tweeners who were willing to do the small/physical things on the court.  Young played in a ton of games every year and really only hit his ceiling (11pt/5reb) as a senior.  The biggest miss here is that Young was not a shooter and played as an undersized five.

To me the best comp is that he's one of those 6th men you see at Iowa or Wisconsin that comes in to play the 4 or 5.  He doesn't look like much, he's barely in the scouting report, he's not an ideal fit at either position.....then you look up and he just dropped 8 quick points on you in a short shift and you're wondering what happened.  

TrueBlue2003

July 7th, 2020 at 1:37 PM ^

I was just going to add that this guy is probably a lot tougher than Smot, almost because anyone would be, but I like that he plays football.

But no, he's not like Robinson who was/is a wing player and one of the best shooters of all time.  This guy is a big.  He sounds like a great shooter for a big but zero chance he's even close to Robinson's shooting level.

TrueBlue2003

July 7th, 2020 at 5:41 PM ^

He definitely was not a 3/wing (couldn't drive or defend wings).  He was a 6'9 stretch four that Beilein played as a 5 because that's what Beilein did (although that was only when Morgan was on the bench and he also played with Morgan as a 4).

I do grant you that Smot didn't want to rebound or do much of anything besides the stretch part of the gig and hence this guy is likely to be much better in that regard.

And Donnal was a similar player that could shoot the three but for some reason almost never did.  He was a center that didn't stretch it nearly enough (fewer than one three pointer per game in his career).

If he's a tougher version of Smotrycz, that'd be great.  Smotrycz was a key contributor on two good Beilein teams.

SenorPositivo

July 7th, 2020 at 1:53 PM ^

After seeing what Iowa did to us with Ryan Kriener and Wisky with Micah Potter, I’m pretty excited for Tschetter to be that type of guy for us to exploit mismatches.  Neither Kriener or Potter were super highly regarded recruits but both have been productive, especially Potter.

AC1997

July 7th, 2020 at 3:11 PM ^

Kriener is the guy I thought of too....though I think Tschetter is a better shooter at this point.  Kriener didn't develop as a shooter until later in his career and our opinion of him is slightly inflated by how he dominated a couple games against us.  

Someone else suggested that his ceiling is Brian Cardinal of Purdue fame.  (link)  That seems a bit lofty at this point since Cardinal averaged double figures all four years, played 450 games in the NBA, and wasn't competing with (we hope) a bunch of top-50 recruits during his time at Purdue.  But there are similarities with size, position, shooting, and pedigree.  

CR

July 7th, 2020 at 7:19 PM ^

I have watched a lot of his tape and have had a hard time finding a comparison.

But Brian Cardinal isn't bad. He may be a tad taller than Cardinal and is a better shooter. He may be slightly less athletic but, like Cardinal, he will mix it up. Indeed, he is the kind of Purdue or Wisconsin guy you hate to play against.

I like this pick up. 3.99 student who will be around for 4 years. Absolutely A Quality spot up shooter. Yes, his release is low and is mostly a set shot, but that's true for most and at his height he can get away with it, particularly where his release is pretty fast. He has a left hand and keeps the ball high in his intermediate game. He has a legit jumper to 15-16 feet. Of course, his competition level has been tepid; but shooting the three is shooting the three and, to me at least, his offensive game looks more than promising. His handle looks OK for 6' 8" but that might change against better defenders. 

The question is defense----and I would say the same thing for Isiah Barnes, though in both cases I am hampered by a lack of complete game film, something that Matt may have access to. Or, he may have seen them live. With Barnes there is quite a bit of tape in the Simeon game (he scored 27) but the data on his shooting is all over the place---or at least, between 36% to 44% from three. His D against Simeon looked shaky, but since the whole team looked shaky on D I am not sure what to make of it where, at times, he seemed to be covering up for others.

 

 

OkemosBlue

July 7th, 2020 at 8:25 PM ^

Thanks!  To me, he looks like someone who might surprise if he changes his body to become more athletic as well as works on his game.  The wide spread in evaluations just shows how subjective the process is for most players except for a few stars.  He's not one in high school, and I doubt he will be one in the pros, but he might be in college.

AC1997

July 8th, 2020 at 12:16 PM ^

I think it will be interesting to see how his body changes in the next few years.  Does he grow into 6'9" or 6'10"?  Does he bulk up to 250-260?  

Here are some comparables and it should also be noted that just about everyone from Iowa or Wisconsin had their heights increase during their years on the roster.  

  • Kriener (Iowa) - 6'10", 255
  • Cardinal (Purdue) - 6'8" 245
  • Donnal (Mich) - 6'9" 240
  • Smotrycz (Mich) - 6'9" 235
  • Sims (Mich) - 6'8" 235
  • Potter (WI) - 6'10" 248
  • Reuvers (WI) - 6'11" 235
  • Jarrod Uthoff (Iowa) - 6'9" 210

 

TrueBlue2003

July 8th, 2020 at 4:06 PM ^

Smotrycz, Sims, Uthoff and mayyyybe Donnal are really the only comparisons at this point unless he grows a couple more inches.

Kriener and Cardinal were big, bulky centers.  This guy doesn't have the frame to get as bulky as those guys.

SanDiegoWolverine

July 7th, 2020 at 5:27 PM ^

I do wonder if these high skill but lower athlete PFs are getting pushed out of basketball at the NCAA and NBA level. The're all pretty much dinosaurs at the NBA level. A player like Ryan Anderson used to be able to put up 15ppg and stretch the floor and now he has been completely played off the floor. Beilein type PFs that are more like swingmen are taking over the college game now too. So if Tschetter can't defend the rim or guard swingmen at an acceptable level it's possible he maxes out as a really good backup C where the offense can go through him and his defense is less of a liability. 

What do you guys think?

blueboy

July 7th, 2020 at 5:51 PM ^

Definitely happening at the NBA level but at the college level, not even remotely close. The smaller key makes it a lot harder for teams to space the floor, and very few teams have the personnel to go 4-out and play spread PnR like most teams do in the NBA. 
 

As a result, there will be a place in the NCAA for skilled but slow big men for much longer than in the NBA.

RAH

July 7th, 2020 at 7:37 PM ^

Also, with the changes in the G league pay scale, a lot of the more athletic NBA types are going to be pursuing their pro options. That may open up more college opportunities for the guys that don't have the currently desirable NBA athleticism. 

SanDiegoWolverine

July 7th, 2020 at 7:46 PM ^

That's one possibility but there's lots of talented college level 6'5" and smaller guys. More and more teams may copy Villanova and play 4 smalls and one big. I agree there will always be a place for more traditional PFs in college but I do wonder if they'll dominate more at the mid-major level and the best colleges will have more versatile play-making 4s. 

TrueBlue2003

July 7th, 2020 at 8:17 PM ^

No. Ryan Anderson is 32 and dealt with injuries the entire 2018 season.  He hasn't been played off the floor so much as he's aged off the floor.

He had a great 2016-2017 year for the Houston Rockets who were playing an ultra-modern game already. And that's because he hit 40% of his threes on 7 (!!) per game.  There will always be a place for a guy like that as long as he's not terrible at defense.

Out of John Hollinger's top 18 rated PF for the 19-20 season, at least six could be classified as high skill, lower athleticism:

6. Domantas Sabonis

11. Danilo Gallinari

12. Krystaps Porzingis

16. Kevin Love

17. Paul Millsap

18. Julius Randle

 

SanDiegoWolverine

July 7th, 2020 at 5:53 PM ^

Just watch his film. He definitely has some nice tools to work with but he's a developmental prospect. His release is a bit low and could stand to be sped up and he has to gather every time before he dunks unless he is running. Not a quick leaper, hopefully he can work on his explosion once he's at Michigan. Does seem like more of a six man type but if he's a hard worker he might be able to crack the starting lineup. 

DMZBlue

July 7th, 2020 at 7:03 PM ^

Matt, while evans eval is probably too bullish to use wall street jargon, yours IMO is a bit bearish.  My thoughts are somewhere in the middle.  I think he'll be a solid B10 player who at a minimum will be a valuable rotation player.

Billmunson

July 7th, 2020 at 9:03 PM ^

His first step is basketball quick. I see 2 yr starter if his defense is as good as his offense. 

Jordan2323

July 7th, 2020 at 11:21 PM ^

Matt,

Any interest in Florida transfer Andrew Nembhard? Hes from Ontario so it would make some sense. Pg is a position of need, especially next year. 

outsidethebox

July 8th, 2020 at 6:33 AM ^

I believe this young man is being undervalued by many here. There is a place in the college game for a 6'8" kid who can shoots the lights out from long-even with diminished athleticism. I believe he is a very cerebral player who knows how to take advantage of the opportunities he is afforded. Offensively, his lack of athleticism will actually give him a psychological advantage...because he will not be guarded closely enough. And if he is being guarded closely enough that means he will be an effective floor spacer. I do not like his low release point but it is deceptive and quicker than being credited. Defensively he may be an elite, Badgeresque floor-flopper we can cheer for. I approve of him joining the good guys. 

mgoblue78

July 8th, 2020 at 8:34 PM ^

Looking at the film, I've got to ask about the rules of basketball. Is the rule now that you get a free step with no dribble so long as you dunk the ball? I realize there's no such thing as traveling in the NBA, but high school?