More fun with stats! CFBStats helpfully grabs every play off the NCAA's box scores and turns lines like "Devin Gardner pass complete to Jeremy Gallon for 14 yards" into downloadable data on receiver targeting. Here's where Gardner's passes went last year by down:
|Receiver||Target(%)||1st Dn||2nd Dn||3rd Dn|
|Total passes||395 (n/a)||142||144||105|
|Jeremy Gallon||137 (35%)||43%||28%||34%|
|Devin Funchess||92 (23%)||25%||18%||28%|
|Drew Dileo||30 (8%)||6%||5%||12%|
|Jake Butt||27 (7%)||3%||13%||4%|
|Jehu Chesson||24 (6%)||4%||8%||6%|
|Jeremy Jackson||10 (3%)||3%||3%||1%|
|Joe Reynolds||7 (2%)||2%||3%||-|
|A.J. Williams||2 (1%)||-||1%||-|
|Fitz Toussaint||20 (5%)||4%||8%||3%|
|Other backs||23 (6%)||6%||6%||6%|
There were four passes on 4th down: two that Funchess converted and two that Dileo didn't. For our purposes I'm going to count them with 3rd downs because they're functionally the same (i.e. not converting is a failure). When every preview this year says defenses will be focused on taking away Funchess, you can see why: most every other target from last year is graduated or not immediately available (Butt). The data also show whether each reception ended up in a 1st down:
|Receiver||1st/2nd Dn||Conv%||3rd/4th Dn||Conv%|
I don't know if the conversion rate for 1st and 2nd down will be that valuable except as a measure of team dink-and-dunk-iness. The numbers for conversion downs show tendency and success. Again, nothing surprising here. Gallon and Funchess remained equal targets, with Dileo the only other likely 3rd down destination.
Was it common for teams to be so focused on a few guys? Well those 3rd down targeting numbers are high. Gallon was the recipient of just over a third of Michigan's 3rd/4th down attempts; that's 7th in the nation at go-to-guyness. The rest:
|Receiver||School||Tm Att||Tgts||Conv %|
|Alex Amidon||Boston College||106||43 (41%)||42%|
|Jordan Matthews||Vanderbilt||104||39 (38%)||38%|
|Shaun Joplin||Bowling Green||114||41 (36%)||49%|
|Willie Snead||Ball State||131||47 (36%)||55%|
|Allen Robinson||Penn State||129||46 (36%)||43%|
|Ryan Grant||Tulane||133||46 (35%)||46%|
|Jeremy Gallon||Michigan||109||36 (33%)||42%|
|Ty Montgomery||Stanford||100||33 (33%)||55%|
|Titus Davis||Central Michigan||98||32 (33%)||56%|
|Quincy Enunwa||Nebraska||112||36 (32%)||33%|
Gallon was as important of a chain-mover for Michigan as A-Rob was to Penn State. What's weird is Michigan's 2nd guy was also really high on the list. Funchess (29% of 3rd/4th down targets, 39% conversion rate) also appears on the national leaderboard, at 19th, right behind Jared Abbrederis.
[After the jump: Michigan was the most obvious team in the country, finding Dileo-like objects, target types.]
Here's a list of 2013 teams that had half or more of its chain-moving passes go to one of two guys:
|Teams w/ 50%+ 3rd/4th down passes to just 2 dudes||% of targets|
|Rk||School||Top receiver targets||1st guy||2nd guy||Total|
|1||Michigan||Jeremy Gallon & Devin Funchess||33%||28%||61%|
|2||Ball State||Willie Snead & Jordan Williams||36%||25%||61%|
|3||LSU||Jarvis Landry & Odell Beckham Jr.||32%||24%||56%|
|4||Tulane||Ryan Grant & Justyn Shackleford||35%||21%||56%|
|5||Army||Chevaughn Lawrence & Xavier Moss||30%||24%||54%|
|6||Georgia State||Albert Wilson & Robert Davis||29%||24%||53%|
|7||Boston College||Alex Amidon & David Dudeck||41%||12%||53%|
|8||Kansas State||Tyler Lockett & Curry Sexton||31%||21%||53%|
|8||Nebraska||Quincy Enunwa & Kenny Bell||32%||20%||52%|
|10||Vanderbilt||Jordan Matthews & Jerron Seymour||38%||13%||51%|
|11||Eastern Michigan||Dustin Creel & Tyreese Russell||27%||24%||51%|
|12||Baylor||Antwan Goodley & Clay Fuller||30%||21%||51%|
|13||Kent State||Chris Humphrey & Tyshon Goode||27%||24%||50%|
|14||Notre Dame||DaVaris Daniels & TJ Jones||29%||21%||50%|
Unsurprisingly these are all schools with a big drop-off in production after their top two guys. A few MAC teams and one that's reclassifying had the parity of Gallon/Funchess; the rest were "we have this guy and we have this other guy when that guy's not open," kinda like how Al Attles used to go around bragging that he and a Philadelphia teammate once combined for 117 points in a game against the Knicks.
When you add Dileo (14%) fully 75% of Michigan's passes on 3rd or 4th down were going to one of three guys; Ball State's Dileo put them at 77% but nobody else is close. A list of three-guy-focused teams is a lot like the above, except KSU's third guy, Tramaine Thompson, was targeted as much as Sexton; and Troy Niklas added to Notre Dame's star duo is good for 6th.
Is there really another guy like Dileo?
If you don't count power-sliding kick holds, because that'd be unfair
One of my favorite memes from the last few years was Dileo=The Threat. As you can see in the first table, half of the passes that went Dileo's way were on 3rd or 4th downs. I wondered if I could find any more "possession"-type guys who got more than 50% of their targets on conversion downs. Answer: about 20 of them.
The leader was Iowa's Jacob Hillyer, who had 14 targets on 3rd/4th down and just seven on normal downs. Boston College's David Dudeck was Hillyer minus one 3rd down attempt. There are two guys from Minnesota, two guys from San Diego State, and two guys from Kansas, including Brandon Bourbon, who only hauled in two his 16 attempts.
You're seeing a lot of repeats because these are schools who did an overly large share of their passing on 3rd down. The run-run Gophers had 44% of their passes on 3rd/4th downs for tops in the nation, and Dudeck's Eagles were behind that at 40% (Michigan, at 28%, was 88th). Ignoring teams from that nature I found five other individuals who might qualify as a Dileo-like weapon. I'm further disqualifying Ka'Deem Carey of Arizona and Senorise Perry of Louisville, since they only actually converted 1 in 4 of those opportunities. That leaves:
|Ronald Butler||Utah State||6'0/185||36||19 (53%)||68%|
|Drew Dileo||Michigan||5'10/180||30||15 (50%)||47%|
|D.D. Goodson||Colorado||5'6/170||46||25 (54%)||44%|
|Kevin Cummings||Oregon St||6'1/184||39||23 (59%)||35%|
Cummings isn't 6'1 any more than Dileo is 5'10, by the way. He and Goodson were seniors, so only Ronald Butler returns.
|Other than Jake Butt at the end of the year Michigan's TEs were dismal at receiving. [Glanzman]|
A slice of tight end heaven
Out of curiosity I also pulled that stats on which teams targeted receivers most often as opposed to tight ends, running backs, or other things. I took out the passes that went to nobody and reclassified as many ATHs and CBs and DEs as RBs or WRs or TEs as googling and time would permit. Results: at 32.5% Michigan was second in the country in the proportion of passes to tight en…waitaminute.
/reclassifies Funchess as a receiver
/refreshes pivot table
Michigan was about 88th in the country at targets to tight ends. The breakdown was 83% of passes to receivers, 8% to tight ends, and 10% to the backs. Thing we are most like: Boise State (84% WR, 8% TE, 9% RB). Here's that breakdown for next year's schedule:
The lack of production from tight ends given how many Michigan deployed…well you know that already. Most of those TE yards were Butt's so until he's back I would hope Nussmeier plans on using slot receivers and multi-back sets unless Bunting can block.