One of the most frustrating problems with Michigan's offense is they appear to be burning a lot of first downs by running Toussaint into stacked lines. Whether it's zone blocked or man, they've been tipping it the same with the same results. The concept has been discussed on here and will be again until it stops; my purpose today is to add some numbers to that discussion.

Love Affair with 2nd and Long. Excising all the non-normal situations (4th quarters, burning clock, attempting a comeback, 2-minute drill at the end of a half) here's a a quick breakdown of playcalls this year on first down:

• 101 handoffs to running backs for 3.0 YPC and 6 TDs
• 28 passes for 10.7 YPA, one interception, and 2 TDs
• 20 play-action passes for 17.8 YPA, one interception and 4 TDs
• 17 options for 5.6 YPA and a TD
• 7 called Gardner runs for 2.7 YPA
• 7 wide receiver runs for 10 YPA
• 4 screens for 5.8 YPA
• 2 false starts

Like basketball the efficiency of the things you do goes down the more you do them, and the efficiency of the counters goes up. I don't doubt that the ridiculous numbers for PA passes above are because it's five times more likely to be a handoff.

Michigan's is not the only bad offense that does this. The thing that MSU was doing when they had Le'Veon Bell was running him into stacked lines again and again to open up the occasional big play for a receiver or tight end. This burned a lot of first downs and killed a lot of drives but when you just need 17 points to win you'll take a high variance in drive results. What made it worthwhile was Bell was one of the best backs in the country at getting yards after contact. If a safety came down to fill the hole Bell could still run (or leap) over that guy and thus set up 2nd and manageable. This year they don't have the OL or the RBs to do that, so they line up to pass on 1st down far more often.

Borges doesn't have the RBs or the OL to do that and haven't adjusted. Instead he's gone the other direction, selling out even further with the unbalanced lines, and running even more often.

UFR database (through Minn) says…

…that Michigan's drives are starting off with a whimper. If I take out 4th quarters and situations when Michigan is down more than two scores we're getting just 2.9 YPC on 1st down runs, which is over 73% of 1st down playcalls. But I showed the above because that's what Bill O'Brien was probably looking at when he and his coaches strategized for this game.

Let's play Being Bill O'Brien. This is how he responded. Here's the first play of the game:

[after the jump]

Michigan is shifting into its unbalanced formation; PSU already has 8 in the box, and all 11 players inside 10 yards. No guesses for what comes of this.

Here's the start of the next drive:

Michigan's unbalanced to the right; PSU has nine in the box. We run to the right. We get nothing.

Here's the next:

Again unbalanced. And there's eight in the box.

Next next next next next

Can you pick out the one above where Funchess burned them for a 59-yarder? Well yeah cause you can see the yard lines but anyway:

…they lined up in an Ace 3-wide with the twins side a stack—a passing look. PSU still ran a 4-3 against it because Michigan on 1st downs dur.

Can Michigan generate this response without bashing its head against a wall until opponents are just convinced we're insane? Yes. Those option plays mostly came out of shotgun/pistol formations and while they didn't work all the time they did generate 5.6 YPC despite running into lots of heavy stuff as well. That's not any better than what we were getting last year with the setup game, but right now we're looking up to last year.