ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#1 Minnesota vs #4 Michigan
WHERE	3M Arena at Mariucci  Minneapolis, MN
WHEN	Saturday, 8:00 PM EST
KRACH Prob.	Minnesota (61.3%)
TELEVISION	BTN

PROGRAMMING NOTE: As hinted at on the HockeyCast this week, we will be doing a WATCH-ALONG on Saturday night for the game being previewed in this article. It will be me, David, and Brian watching the Michigan-Minnesota clash on the MGoBlog Live YouTube channel. If you want to follow along, feel free to join us! We are planning to go live at 8:00 PM EST when the game gets underway and will post the link to the site and tweet it out beforehand. 

OVERVIEW

Let's do it again: for the second straight year, Michigan meets Minnesota in Minneapolis to decide the Big Ten Hockey Tournament championship. Last season the Wolverines were the better team but did not have home ice due to a late lull in B1G play. They went into the Twin Cities and asserted themselves as the better team, scoring four goals in the first half of the game to take a commanding lead into the final minute, allowing a pair of late goals with the net empty but never seriously threatening to blow the lead. This season it's a bit different, even if the final destination is the same. Minnesota's been the better, more experienced team all year long, but Saturday night is one game for glory. The trajectory of the season need not matter. 

THE US

Michigan manhandled arch-nemesis Ohio State last Saturday in the semifinals of this tournament, building a 3-0 lead within the first eleven minutes and then going in cruise control the rest of the way. Adam Fantilli added two more goals, showcasing himself as the best player in NCAA Hockey, and it was a banner day for Michigan's defense, both in preventing chances at 5v5 but also in driving offense forward. Seamus Casey scored a goal, Keaton Pehrson created another with a great pass for a tap-in, and Luke Hughes was effective at creating offense in transition all game long. The only rough spot in that game was a leaky PK that let the Buckeyes go 2/3 with the man advantage (and allowed a 6v5 goal late). 

For Michigan, the stakes are pretty obvious. Not just do you get a championship ring and a B1G Tournament banner to hoist in Yost, but the Wolverines will also lock up a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a win (likely the 4th one seed, which would set Michigan up for a trip to Manchester, NH). 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

THE THEM 

If you remember the feeling we felt when Owen Power, Kent Johnson, Thomas Bordeleau, and Matty Beniers all decided to come back for the 2021-22 season... that's the feeling that Gophers fans have had all year long. After making the Frozen Four but coming up short against Minnesota State last season, nearly the whole team agreed to run it back rather than sign professional contracts, and they've been joined by a crop of uber-talented freshmen. This loaded Minnesota roster is no question the best in college hockey, a talent level only topped by Michigan but blending experience and veteran poise that Brandon Naurato's inaugural team lacks. 

With that roster, Minnesota has been dominant wire to wire. They've been a little more vulnerable in the non-conference, splitting with Minnesota State, North Dakota, Arizona State, and St. Cloud, but have steamrolled their way through the best B1G in conference history. In conference play, Minnesota went 17-3 in regulation and 19-4-1 overall. They won the conference regular season title by a mile, finishing 19 points up on second place Michigan. After losing in regulation to Penn State on November 10, they would not lose in regulation again until a shocking defeat in Madison at the hands of the Badgers on February 11. Even late in the season, with nothing to play for in the B1G, they swept Penn State and Ohio State, two top ten teams. Given the #1 seed in the BTT and a bye into round two, they easily dispatched Michigan State last weekend in the semifinals 5-1. 

Minnesota's team revolves around their deep and experienced defense corps. Their top four defensemen in scoring are all juniors or seniors, including 2019 first round pick Ryan Johnson (BUF) and 2019 second round pick Jackson LaCombe (ANA), as well as 2020 second round pick Brock Faber (LAK). When you toss in 2019 fifth rounder Mike Koster (TOR), you have a top four that has played a lot of college hockey and who have legitimate NHL ambition, a rarity in the NCAA. Those four are the players who the team will lean on in crunch time, but freshman Ryan Chesley (WSH) was a top 40 draft pick in the most recent draft himself. Not too shabby!

[AFTER THE JUMP: More preview]

[Bill Rapai]

The defense makes a virtual fortress around goaltender Justen Close, who I will discuss in the goalies section. Though the team is towards the middle of the NCAA in shots allowed against, some of the advanced metrics that I have been told about (but do not have permission to share) rate their defense among the best in the country in chance suppression. That generally lines up with the eye test. This is a team that protects the slot, doesn't give up too many rush chances against, and takes care of the puck in their own end. 

Then you pair that defense with one of the very best lines in college hockey, one that has elite NHL talent that rivals the best Michigan can offer. 1st line center Logan Cooley was the 3rd overall pick in the 2022 Draft by the Arizona Coyotes, a creative playmaker who drives the line and has racked up 50 points, second in the country. He is no doubt (in my mind) the second-best freshman forward in the NCAA after Fantilli. What makes the line so dangerous is the two players Cooley plays with, St. Louis Blues first rounder Jimmy Snuggerud, a lethal shooter that has outperformed expectations in scoring 20 goals as a freshman, on one wing and Matthew Knies, the most passionate Gopher and a big tough winger, on the other.

Knies, a 2021 second round pick of the Toronto Maple Leafs, opted to return to college last spring with the aim of winning a national championship. It appears to have been a prudent decision, scoring 21 goals thanks to his slick hands and big (6'3", 210 lbs.) frame, which allows him to be a menace around the net. Knies won B1G Player of the Year in the conference awards this week and will likely join Toronto, with a shot to suit up in the NHL playoffs, once Minnesota's season is up. The three members of this line, Cooley, Snuggerud, and Knies, are all in the top 17 players in the country in points, all elite NHL prospects, and do a lot of the heavy lifting offensively. 

There's a pretty steep drop-off after that first line, but they have gotten 15 goals from Bryce Brodzinski, 9 from Mason Nevers and Rhett Pitlick, and 8 from Jaxon Nelson. This is a high-scoring Minnesota team, tied with Michigan for the most goals-per-game in the country (4.1), and some of that comes from the defense. Jackson LaCombe has 8 goals and 31 points in 32 games from the back-end, while Koster has had a breakout junior season offensively (25 points). There aren't many holes with this team, a high-powered offense, an elite defense, a healthy mix of guys who NHL teams see as core parts of their future and also experience across the roster. If there was ever a team that seemed destined to end Minnesota's 20 year national title drought, it would be this one. 

[Bill Rapai]

SPECIAL TEAMS

In typical fashion with Bob Motzko's team, the Gophers are balanced and proficient on both the PP and the PK. Minnesota ranks 14th in the NCAA (2nd in the B1G) on the penalty kill at 83% and 7th in the NCAA (1st in the B1G) on the PP at 25%. I don't have a ton to add here because any analysis just parrots the points I mentioned in the "The Them" section above. They have great players on defense, creative and skilled players who produce on offense, and are well-coached and structured, which leads to positive and consistent outcomes on special teams. Championship caliber!

As for Michigan, the PP sits at 16th nationally and 2nd in the B1G at 22.3%. The Wolverines are able to build two strong units with the amount of offensive talent they have, using the shots of Gavin Brindley, Mackie Samoskevich, and Adam Fantilli as shooting weapons on the flanks, Luke Hughes and Seamus Casey as QBs at the point, and strong passers and forecheck presences in Rutger McGroarty, TJ Hughes, and Dylan Duke down low. The penalty kill has been a bit of a weak spot recently, something I wrote about in my Wednesday column. Michigan has allowed a PPG against in six straight games and the overall clip has now sunk to 50th out of 61 teams (77.1%) in the NCAA. They need to do a better job obstructing puck movement with bodies and sticks in order to improve on the kill. 

GOALIES

This is a matchup between an interesting pair of goalies, Erik Portillo and Justen Close. These are the same two who went head-to-head last season in this game, but this time around opinions of both are a bit different. Last season at this time, Portillo was a killer. He was dominant down the stretch of the season, boasting a second-half SV% in the .940 range, which is among the best in the country. This season, Portillo's season SV% is sitting at .907, 46th out of ~70 real goalies (not counting Stonehill here). He's been very wobbly with a breakdown in his technique and form, something well discussed on this site throughout the season. Portillo has been a bit better recently, but he is still struggling with kicking out monster rebounds on largely harmless shots and a tendency to swim in his crease, losing his posts and too late to recover from the butterfly. It's an area of concern for the Maize & Blue. 

As for Close, he was an unknown at this time last season but now there's quite a book on him. Close was called into action suddenly last season when starter Jack LaFontaine bolted for the NHL mid-season. Many analysts (including myself) wrote Minnesota off at that point, but Close preformed admirably and got the Gophers to the Frozen Four. In his first full season as a starter, we now have a good sense of Close. His .929 SV% ranks third-best in the NCAA but the quality of shots he faces is quite low, with some advanced metrics suggesting he's a neutral or even below average goalie when you look at goals saved above expected.

Michigan hasn't had any trouble beating Close in their matchups with him, which illuminates that point: Michigan has NHL shooters and Close is not considered an NHL goalie, undersized (5'10") with little NHL pedigree (undrafted and largely off the pro radar). He produces excellent numbers playing behind that defense and facing teams like Ohio State or Michigan State, who lack elite shooters. But in five games against Michigan's array of pro gunners this year and last, Close has posted just an .884 SV%. He's allowed 1, 4, 4, 3, 5 in those five games. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

KEYS

Have NHL shooters shoot like NHLers. Building off the point above about Close as a goaltender is this: Michigan has an array of elite, NHL-level shooters, just as they did last year with Beniers and Brisson. Those guys have had no problem solving Close in the past and that's the key for Michigan to win this game. They don't need to control the game or tilt the ice on Minnesota, though it would certainly be nice. They don't need a ton of chances, they just need a few A+ ones and for their shooters to hit the target and finish those off. Fantilli, Brindley, Samoskevich are as good of pure shooters as there are anywhere in NCAA hockey. Let them do damage against Close. 

Defend like you're playing OSU, not Wisconsin. Over the past two weekends we've seen one of Michigan's best 5v5 defensive efforts of the season against Ohio State and one of their worst against Wisconsin. Minnesota is obviously much more OSU than Wisconsin in that you need to play good defense to beat them, especially with Portillo being his wobbly self. Michigan protected their net in terrific fashion at even strength against the Buckeyes and they need that to carry over to Minnesota. When these two teams met in Minneapolis last time, Michigan held one goal leads late in the third period both times and couldn't get either game to the finish line (losing one in OT and winning one in OT). This time they need to dig deep and find a way to get it done if they happen to be leading late, and that starts by replicating their Ohio State defensive effort, not the Wisconsin one. 

Don't take a five minute major. This needs little introduction or explanation for those who have followed the Michigan Hockey season. Five minute majors are extremely damaging to one's win probability in a given game and Michigan happens to take an inordinate amount of them, most of them because of their own recklessness/lack of discipline. Michigan is one of the most penalized teams in the country. Minnesota is one of the least penalized teams. The Gophers have a very good PP, Michigan has a struggling PK. STAY OUT OF THE BOX!!!!

PREDICTIONS

are stupid for a one game hockey playoff