Good News/Bad News: Big Ten East
Previously: Big Ten West
Good riddance. [Bryan Fuller]
We're still taking a look at the strongest and weakest units of each Big Ten squad, this time focusing on the East division. These are still in order of Bill Connelly's power rankings. You'll like this order.
MICHIGAN
Good News: [looks at defensive line depth chart] [cackles for several minutes]
Bad News: I know we all believe Ben Bredeson is going to be quite good, but I'd be lying if I said the news that a true freshman might start at left tackle doesn't give me the willies.
MICHIGAN STATE
Good News: Linebacker, as usual, should be a strength, even if Ed Davis's dubious claim for a sixth year—we'll know for sure soon—doesn't go through. Riley Bullough isn't quite in that top tier of Big Ten MLBs, but he's close, and I think Jon Reschke is a quality player on the strong side. Sophomore Andrew Dowell is a player I really liked coming out of high school; he's stepping into the "STAR" spacebacker role after flashing promise as a freshman. Pulling some NCAA voodoo to get Davis another year could take this group from good to great.
Bad News: There are some major question marks (and ORs) on the depth chart on both lines, but for me the main area of concern is still the passing game. Tyler O'Connor has won the starting QB job; unless he improves dramatically from his (admittely limited) time of the field last year, there will be a noteworthy dropoff from Connor Cook. The bigger issue, though, might be the receiving corps. Cook's binky, Aaron Burbridge, is also off to the NFL, as is MacGarrett Kings Jr., leaving slot RJ Shelton as the only returning wideout with more than two catches last year. Experience is very important at both receiver and quarterback; State doesn't have much at either.
[Hit THE JUMP]
OHIO STATE
Good News: While JT Barrett had a down year as a passer in 2015, his struggles can largely be attributed to circumstances—both the season-long QB battle and the loss of Tom Herman—that should be mitigated this season. He's still one of the best running QBs in the country, and if he can come close to his freshman passing production he'll be easily the best QB in the conference.
Bad News: After so much roster turnover, there are a lot of spots on the depth chart where you can point to a lack of experience, but it's hard to expect huge drops in play given the combination of ridiculous talent and coaching in the program. That said, starting a true freshman on the O-line is a big red flag, and the Buckeyes are poised to do just that with Michael Jordan (NTMJ) at left guard. The Viking horde that is Michigan's interior D-line should have (excessively violent) fun with that matchup.
PENN STATE
Good News: Sophomore RB Saquon Barkley would be a Heisman contender on a better team. He won't have to carry the entire workload, either. PSU's passing game could very well improve with new faces at both offensive coordinator and quarterback. Meanwhile, they signed five-star RB Miles Sanders, who should immediately become the second half of one of the best tailback tandems in the country.
Bad News: Penn State had the best pass-rush in the country due to the exploits of Carl Nassib, Austin Johnson, and Anthony Zettel. All of those guys are gone. The only remaining starter, Garrett Sickels, had a pedestrian year in 2015, and only two returning DTs saw any action at all last season. PSU has some very good linebackers; they're going to need to be great to make up for the losses up front.
INDIANA
Good News: Opponents are going to spend a lot of time chasing after this receiving corps if JuCo transfer QB Richard Lagow is any good. Simmie Cobbs Jr. is the big downfield target; he's both high-volume (110 targets in 2015) and high-efficiency (9.4 yard per target). A cadre of slot types surround him; 5'10" Ricky Jones, 5'7" Mitchell Paige, and 5'8" J-Shun Harris II (returning from a season lost to injury) will give Lagow plenty of options when opposing defenses focus on Cobbs.
Bad News: The entire secondary returns. This secondary:
Meanwhile, the rush defense was somehow worse than the pass defense in 2015, and IU loses five of their top seven defensive linemen. Another year of CHAOS is all but guaranteed.
MARYLAND
Good News: Maryland should be strong up the gut on defense. They were 36th in power success rate in 2015, have a couple burly DTs in Azubuike Ukandu and Kingsley Opara, and Jermaine Carter is one of the best inside linebackers in the country.
Bad News: The Terps will roll with Perry Hills as their starting quarterback in the season opener. Yes, that Perry Hills.
He'll be a better fit in new OC Walt Bell's up-tempo, spread-to-run system. Given his struggles completing passes to the correct team last year, though, that's probably not going to be enough.
RUTGERS
Good News: New head coach Chris Ash, in all likelihood, won't try to get a player's grade changed by meeting a professor on campus in the fail-proof disguise of "I'm not literally wearing team-issued clothing."
Bad News: Rutgers has to replace all of their starting linebackers from an abject defense. This is how that was going in the spring:
Jay Niemann on LB depth chart: 'It's a mess'
They've settled on three true sophomores with a combined one career start. It's gonna be a mess.
August 25th, 2016 at 5:21 PM ^
I think the concern, even for a player as talented as Bredenson, is that the step up in competition is so huge (particularly for a player from Wisconsin) and they eat of strength and conditioning makes a huge difference.
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August 25th, 2016 at 5:42 PM ^
Geez...You'd think this was an academic website where people challenge generalities in terms of black and white. Of course, there are exceptions to starting freshman on the o-line. Is Bredeson one of those exceptions? Maybe...I don't know!
Yes, other schools like Alabama and OSU who have recruited the most physiclly ready, blue-chip recruits have had success with starting true freshman on the o-line. Maybe others have too.
But it doesn't negate that for the past umpteen years of college football, it's usually considered a relatively poor sign when a freshman starts on the o-line. That's just reality. It doesn't mean it can't happen under any circumstance; rather, it's just a generally understood rule of thumb.
Yes, there are exceptions; and, yes, there is a pretty reasonable rule of thumb.
August 25th, 2016 at 3:18 PM ^
Here's my question and I've been meaning to ask the mgoguys:
Why does Bill C. think we have so few returners on offense? Did he actually switch us with another team by accident? Also is his methodology really weighted that heavily on returning starters? If he has us equal with MSU in returning production something went wrong with his analysis...
August 25th, 2016 at 3:58 PM ^
August 25th, 2016 at 6:34 PM ^
Looks like just an error in the table for the Big Ten Preview. Look at the table for every team in the nation. This has Michigan with 63% overall, 53% offense (which still seems low, but QB pulls a lot of weight), and 73% defense. This is very different from the 42/25/59 in the Big Ten table. So Connelly does not actually have us that close to MSU as far as returning production.
August 25th, 2016 at 3:19 PM ^
Good News: We bought a swing.
Bad News: It has a burning tire on it.
August 25th, 2016 at 3:22 PM ^
Per their coach:
August 25th, 2016 at 6:21 PM ^
That's Exit 13A on the NJ Turnpike.
August 25th, 2016 at 10:13 PM ^
Reports out of Rutgers camp are high on the bulked-up O-Line of 5th-year seniors. Meanwhile, there's talk of four RB candidates for 1,000-yard seasons.
August 25th, 2016 at 4:11 PM ^
This is a tyre fire....
August 25th, 2016 at 3:26 PM ^
August 25th, 2016 at 3:28 PM ^
Should NOT....
But given the way the NCAA doles out these things...
August 25th, 2016 at 3:45 PM ^
August 25th, 2016 at 3:58 PM ^
The season is literally a week away. How can the NCAA not have a decision already on Ed Davis? It's not like he's a freshman or sophmore who will just redshirt if told he isn't eligible. Let the guy move on with his life.
August 25th, 2016 at 4:06 PM ^
For whatever reason (read: bureaucracy) they cannot issue a decision or even convene on the matter until he has a degree. So really the bigger question is how in the hell has he not managed to complete a degree until the summer semester AFTER his 5th year in college? Especially considering he allegedly spent two of those years, you know, "injured."
August 25th, 2016 at 4:30 PM ^
fail a number of courses
August 25th, 2016 at 4:40 PM ^
He apparently changed his major and had terrible academic advising. At least that's what the good people at rcmb are saying.
August 25th, 2016 at 7:29 PM ^
NCAA rules make it very difficult to change your major and stay eligible. Unless the student athlete had already been taking course work toward their new major, the academic progress milestones are unlikely to be met.
August 25th, 2016 at 4:41 PM ^
maybe he changed majors? twice?
August 25th, 2016 at 3:39 PM ^
Which Good News will struggle the most, and which Bad News will be surprisingly decent?
Good News:
This one is tough, but I think I have to pick on Maryland. The others just seem like way too much of a strength to warrant second guessing. I don't think any of PSU, OSU, MSU, UofM, or IU will have a problem running the ball against Maryland.
Bad News:
I'm torn between IU pass defense and OSU inexperience everywhere (but notably on the OL); but I have to go with OSU. I don't think I'll believe an OSU regression under Meyer until we see it. Obviously this will be tested early, on the road against OU, but I still think OSU will field a Top-15 team starting with game 1. By game 12, they will be playing at a Top-5 level. (I hate ohio state)
August 25th, 2016 at 4:17 PM ^
Urban Meyer has lost exactly one regular season B1G game in 4 years at OSU. One.
Maybe this is the year they go 6-3 in conference, but I really REALLY doubt it.
August 25th, 2016 at 4:21 PM ^
August 26th, 2016 at 12:37 AM ^
and OSU is a good deal more talented than every B1G teams except maybe Michigan.
August 25th, 2016 at 3:41 PM ^
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August 25th, 2016 at 3:56 PM ^
August 25th, 2016 at 5:53 PM ^
Bunch of D3 coaches. Truly remarkable how far we have come.
August 25th, 2016 at 4:00 PM ^
Washington is going to annihilate Rutgers in that season opener up in Seattle.
RB Miles Gaskin returns for Huskies, 1,300 yards last year.
They return 4 starters on the OL and intend to run a lot more this fall.
Yeesh.
August 25th, 2016 at 4:52 PM ^
It'll be a mess at Rutgers the same way it was a mess for Michigan in 2014. And 2013. And 2012.
But they'll be reasonably good-natured in New Brunswick because it's the first year of a full rebuild. They have an AD with a brain in his head. There's optimism about the Urban Meyer protege.
They'll be patient in New Brunswick if only because nobody in the NY-NJ-CT tristate area gives a flying fuck about college football. Not since Army in 1944, 45, and 46. ... It's pro football all the way out there.
These next few years shouldn't be as bad for Rutgers as the Terry Shea Era -- 11-44 in 1996-2000 -- the worst stretch at RU since the program committed to a full D-1 schedule in 1982. ... Hell, does Michigan even have a comparable dry spell? The end of Harry Kipke's tenure, maybe, from 1934-37?
If Michigan is worth this season's hype, it should be an old-fashioned rout Oct. 8. Enjoy. The Rutgers people know this.
Just an RU alum's friendly perspective.
August 25th, 2016 at 5:06 PM ^
August 25th, 2016 at 6:18 PM ^
I was so drunk for every single Rutgers game during my undergraduate years I literally have zero memory of watching them or anything that happened in them. No regrets.
August 25th, 2016 at 4:36 PM ^
I'm not worried about the UM QB spot this year given both guys sound good; it's not like where the choice is broken-down Devin Gardner and Shane Morris.
The depth is always an issue with any team; UM having a super-stacked defensive line is the exception rather than the norm. Hell, if Barrett goes down OSU is probably in trouble, even if that offense is welcoming to plug-and-play players.
I will believe PSU is a competent offense with a clear plan when I see it. They'll probably score a bunch more points this year than last; I also expect the defense to take at least as big a step back.
August 25th, 2016 at 4:47 PM ^
Out of necessity, Tim Drevno started at least two (?) true freshmen OL at USC in 2014, and has gone on record saying they did a good job. Of course, the questions are, who were they and how talented, experienced and physically ready were they compared to, say, Bredeson or Onwenu? But, the point is, Drevno absolutely believes the best man at a position should play, regardless of class status, and he is willing to do just that; and so is Harbaugh.
August 26th, 2016 at 7:33 AM ^
Three true freshmen. IIRC they were pretty good in the running game and terrible at pass protection.
Playing a true freshman at OL isn't an unmitigated disaster but it is, at best, mitigated disaster. As in, not disaster, but you're playing a true freshman because you literally don't have better options.
Again, not saying a true freshman would be awful. . . but it certainly means you don't have any NFL-ready fifth-year left tackles on the roster either.
August 25th, 2016 at 5:03 PM ^
I still think the greater concern for Sparty is OL. Glass houses and all, but I (along with another guy) posted about this in another thread. They have 5 guys in their "playing group" at OT:
- Michael Machado at RT, who seemed like a band-aid during injuries last year, but is tough
- Dave Beedle at LT, who played in spot duty at guard last year when their starters went down - he's a low 3* from Clarkston who had offers from the MAC and Illinois
- Kody Kelier, who is actually the starting center and the guy who's OK but was famously blown up by the AL DL in the CFP
- Cole Chewins, a RS Fr from Clarkston who was a lowly rated TE they put a ton of weight on. He's now 273 lbs. I think he'll be good one day (based on very limited data - I liked him in the spring game), but at that weight he's certainly not ready this year.
- Thiyo Likusa, a true freshman 4* from Traverse City
Dennis Finley is the guy everyone hoped would take the LT job. He's coming back from injury, feel bad for the guy, but he's only 271 lbs. at the moment. And according to their OL coach he's currently not in the playing rotation at all. I mean, he's 14 lbs. lighter than AJ Williams was last year.
LJ Scott is a beast, and their TE Price is a good player, but this is not a good OL. And if injuries hit they are in real trouble immediately.
Michigan is similar? Well depth-wise maybe, but not the starters. M has 4 players with a ton of experience. And at LT we have a guy in Newsome that looks to be taking the job (don't believe the Bredeson talk yet) the way they hoped Finley would. And Bredeson seems a better option than Likusa, based on rankings and camp buzz. I'd guess Juwan Bushell-Beatty is a better option than Cole Chewins, and Dawson can probably play tackle in a pinch.
But yeah, it's not pretty for Michigan if a few injuries occur. It's probably an abject disaster for Sparty. And the starters - even in the best case - are probably just average to below average.
August 25th, 2016 at 5:15 PM ^
I was "the other guy"!
To add to your post:
Kodi Kieler is moving positions, from RT last year to C this year.
MSU has no depth. They have bodies, but no depth. I think Patrick Kugler and David Dawson would be viable starters for MSU this season.
I believe this, more than anything, is going to set MSU back this season. You can cover up for lack of experience/talent in the skill positions with great coaching, but you can't hide a weakness on the OL.
August 25th, 2016 at 5:26 PM ^
People are acting like Bredeson might be playing over someone who's a 4th yr junior. Newsome's a true sophomore. Yes he saw some snaps as the 6th olineman last year, but by all accounts he struggled in the spring and spring game. As someone else mentioned, we all thought left tackle was going to be a major concern heading into the year, and surprise, it is. In a perfect world Newsome would have put a stranglehold on the position but it appears he hasn't.
After watching last years team, I'm pretty confident Harbaugh and Co. are going to put the best player on the field. Whether he ends up being all conference or all dud, who knows...but I have a lot more faith that Harbaugh is going to put the best player on the field than I did with the previous staff.
August 25th, 2016 at 7:20 PM ^
Can they block and tackle? Do they have a tight end and fullback?
August 25th, 2016 at 7:43 PM ^
Harbaugh knows Bo. Will it be The Season?
August 26th, 2016 at 8:25 AM ^
I can't believe we ever let Rutgers beat us.
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