First Look: 2017 Offense

Submitted by Brian on January 12th, 2017 at 1:21 PM

DEPARTURES IN ORDER OF SIGNIFICANCE.

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[Bryan Fuller]

  1. TE Jake Butt. Mackey win might have been a career award but it was warranted in that context. Sure handed, huge catching radius threat. Blocking indifferent. Butt will be missed by more than last name aficionados. 69% catch rate is nuts. He's off to the second round of the draft unless people are spooked by a bowl-game ACL tear.
  2. WR Amara Darboh. Delivered on Jim Harbaugh's assertions that he was Michigan's best receiver with an All Big Ten year. Still left you wanting a bit more, though, as he had multiple opportunities to bail Wilton Speight out of iffy throws and took few of them during Michigan's unfortunate finish.
  3. RT Erik Magnuson. Quiet, steady performer at tackle. Was never a star and I'm a little dubious of people projecting him on day two in the draft, but if Michigan had five Erik Magnusons the year ends very differently. Alas.
  4. WR Jehu Chesson. Never recaptured his stellar late 2015 form as a senior. Still moderately productive, but only that. Speed did not translate into downfield production, or even many targets. Those went to Darboh, with iffy success.
  5. RB De'Veon Smith. Workhorse back had solid season. Detractors will point to middling YPC (4.7) relative to the rest of the platoon; this is unfair since Smith got all the short yardage work and was often making yards on his own just to get to that number. Pass protection dipped in senior year.
  6. LT Ben Braden. Pressed into service at left tackle after Grant Newsome's injury, where he was neither as bad as expected nor actually good. Reduced his tendency to lean on guys as his career went on but never fully excised that from his game. Draft chatter minimal, understandably.
  7. RG Kyle Kalis. Promising start to senior season submarined by a recurrence of mental errors and then just straight up getting crushed by top-level interior pass rushers. Extravagantly whipped by Jaleel Johnson, Nick Bosa, and DeMarcus Walker in Michigan's losses. I will never say "it can't get worse" in reference to a Michigan offensive line again, but Kalis seems eminently replaceable.
  8. RB/QB Jabrill Peppers. Offensive output was minimal after wildcat QB business was diagnosed. Effective decoy mostly.
  9. QB Shane Morris. Never found playing time and is taking a grad transfer.
  10. OL David Dawson. Announced a grad transfer even before spring practice, further emphasizing how thin Michigan was on the OL this year: either he or the coaches didn't think he had any shot at a job this fall.

WHAT'S LEFT

 

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[Fuller]

  1. OL Mason Cole. Move to center went relatively well, though I was less into him than PFF was. Had difficulty moving large nose tackle types and didn't get to do much operating in space, oddly. Pass protection was very good once he was removed from edge types, and I might be expecting to much. He had an NFL decision to make at a spot that usually doesn't see a ton of guys go.
  2. QB Wilton Speight. Debut season was solid statistically: 7.7 YPA, 62% completions, 18-7 TD-INT, third in the Big Ten in passer rating, 29th passing O in S&P+. Michigan's sack rate allowed was pretty good (27th) largely because of Speight's excellent pocket presence. Late wobbles leave the door open a crack for Brandon Peters.
  3. The rest of the running back platoon. Chris Evans will headline after the bowl game touchdown; Ty Isaac and Karan Higdon also had their moments. Evans is a jittery speedster who promises to hit the home runs Smith could not. Higdon will probably pick up most of the mooseback work since he's a low-to-the-ground guy who runs behinds his pads, as they say. Isaac's never had it click, really, but played well in relatively limited opportunities last year.
  4. OL Ben Bredeson. Flat out bad most of the year, because he was a true freshman. Should get a lot better, whether it's at guard or tackle. Honestly we should just forget about this season entirely when it comes to projecting him down the road.
  5. FBs Henry Poggi and Khalid Hill. FB duo was quite a dichotomy. Hill led the team in touchdowns and paved various players on spectacular edge two-for-one blocks while catching 89% of the balls that came his way. Poggi was not the threat as a receiver or runner and was substantially below average as a blocker. Despite this the two FBs split time about down the middle.
  6. Kaiju. Devin Asiasi and Tyrone Wheatley Jr were mostly blockers. Both were up and down, as freshmen tend to be, flashing A+ power while occasionally falling off dudes. They were not targeted often but made the most of their opportunities. With Butt's absence Michigan will rely more heavily on both; the potential for a Leap from one or both entices.
  7. TE Ian Bunting. Looked like Butt 2.0 on a slick seam catch in the bowl game, and also looked like Butt 2.0 when he gave up a comically easy sack a few plays later. Previous bullet makes his role in the offense somewhat in question
  8. (Probably) WR Grant Perry. Legal troubles probably get pled down to misdemeanors and allow him to stay on the team. Slippery slot receiver will have a role if still around.
  9. RB Drake Johnson. Star-crossed running back lost last season to a forklift accident and will apply for a sixth year. Fast straight-line runner who will find a role.
  10. OL Juwann Bushell-Beatty. Temporarily the LT after Newsome left. Displaced after struggling mightily.

WHAT'S NEW, OR CLOSE ENOUGH, ANYWAY

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Bredeson is a returning starter, sort of[Fuller]

 

Basically the whole offensive line. For purposes of this bullet we're pretending freshman Ben Bredeson and not freshman Ben Bredeson are different people, because we need that to be the case. Michigan needs to replace three starters and get a transformation from the aforementioned; this is a lot of turnover. Mike Onwenu is penciled in at right guard and unlikely to be dislodged by anything short of a supernova; Bredeson will start somewhere. Cole exists. The other two spots are anyone's guess.

Ditto the receivers. Michigan got some good blocking, one bad drop, and one badass catch from Kekoa Crawford this year; Eddie McDoom took a bunch of jet sweeps and had one nice slant catch; Drake Harris was targeted deep several times, all of those incompletions except for one sweet catch invalidated by an unnecessary offensive pass interference call. That is the sum total of returning experience for the WR corps.

Tight ends in a post-Butt world. Ton of potential at the spot; probably fine; need to see that potential develop.

WHAT'S ROD STEWART 1977

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[Fuller]

Probably Wilton Speight. Speight's 2016 did not have the clear takeoff narrative that Jake Rudock did. He was great for a couple games early, then bad, then indifferent, then awesome after the bye week until he turned into a pumpkin a third of the way through Iowa. He was terrific against Ohio State despite an injury that seemed to prevent him from throwing it downfield whatsoever... except for two turnovers 100% on him that lost the game. He gets an incomplete for the Orange Bowl since every time he dropped back he was beset by hounds instantly.

It would be much easier to draw an upward arrow if he'd packed the bad stuff in early and then got a lot better; unfortunately that is not the case. I'm still a Speight optimist for three reasons:

  1. Harbaugh. This should be self-explanatory but if you need a refresher here's the QB season preview.
  2. Speight seems to have the hardest thing down: pocket presence. His ability to turn garbage into first downs is exceptional for a guy his size.
  3. His good periods came after an opportunity to take a breather and focus on the things Harbaugh was coaching him to do. Speight was hot at the beginning of the season, after the bye, and after he missed the Indiana game. As we go along here he should be more that guy than the one who forgot and reverted to high school/Borges stuff when the heat got turned up.

Also, redshirt sophomores generally get better. It's not a big step from where he's currently at to an All Big Ten type season.

The three to five horsemen. I really like Chris Evans and Karan Higdon, and with Johnson, Isaac, Kareem Walker, and O'Maury Samuels also available this looks set to be a very deep and good running back crew. It may lack the out and out star that Najee Harris would have provided; I'm not stressing about the ballcarriers not getting what they should. All three returners graded significantly positively on PFF (relative to workload).

Blocky/catchy blocking. If one or both Kaiju takes a Williams-esque step forward and Hill gets most of the fullback work, Michigan's ability to generate yards off tackle will take a big step forward. Butt was an excellent player overall; he was average-at-best as a blocker.

WHAT'S ROD STEWART 2017

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Newsome's injury recover is critical [Bill Rapai]

Tackle. Hoke's OL recruiting was, in a word, disastrous. Michigan enters 2017 with exactly one Hoke-recruited OT: Bushell-Beatty. That means Michigan will have to do two of the following:

  • Get Grant Newsome back from a terrifying injury that kept him in the hospital for over a month. (FWIW, there's been some chatter that Newsome's injury doesn't have an unusually lengthy prognosis despite the hospital stay.)
  • Move Mason Cole back to the tackle spot he couldn't pass protect at.
  • Move Ben Bredeson out to tackle, where he might have the same issues Cole does.
  • Start Bushell-Beatty, who got beat up by Rutgers last year.
  • Start Nolan Ulizio, a low-rated redshirt sophomore.
  • Start a true freshman.

Two of those options might work out really well. But probably not.

 

 

WHAT'S HEISENBERG ROD STEWART UNCERTAINTY

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[Patrick Barron]

The guys on the end of Speight passes. Young receivers are usually bad. Of late, however, you're seeing a couple guys a year break through as true freshmen. Michigan has a couple of candidates in the 2017 class. Both Tarik Black and Donovan Peoples-Jones enrolled early, and both seem like sharp guys who will pick up the offense quickly. Add those guys to the McDoom/Crawford/Johnson troika that the coaching staff is high on and Drake Harris and it's not too hard to see Michigan being at least as good as they were this year.

Or they could be first-and-second year guys and run into each other on the regular. Ask again later.

Meanwhile, Michigan has a solid candidate to do Butt stuff in Ian Bunting. Still a difficult ask for anyone to live up to Butt's ability to reel in anything in his area.

The interior OL. At guard, a dropoff is unlikely from a true freshman and a guy who ended up –12 on the season per PFF. Michigan needs to do much more than tread water, though. Mike Onwenu is a unique prospect at one spot, and Bredeson will either be a lot better... or playing tackle, and then the other guard spot is a series of question marks. Cole stabilizes; whether or not these guys are any good is still very much an open question.

The Pep effect. Is Pep Hamilton an upgrade on Jedd Fisch? Does it even matter when Harbaugh's running things?

MANDATORY WILD ASS GUESS

Another mediocre season is in the offing unless Michigan gets a Christmas miracle an the offensive line that will probably feature one upperclassman and is 50/50 to sport another true freshman. That is a tough hill to climb for anyone. The skill positions should be good but are likely a year away from being able to offer win-games-on-our-own help—again Michigan is all but devoid of upperclassmen.

A projected Speight uptick is the main reason for optimism; it's asking a lot of him to be Andrew Luck in an environment where he's going to be running away an awful lot.

The good news is good news about 2018, when Michigan loses only a few projected contributors: Mason Cole, the fullbacks, Drake Johnson, and Ty Isaac. Whatever they find this year will enter 2018 just about unscathed.

Comments

alum96

January 12th, 2017 at 4:29 PM ^

This was a great post and not rah rah like I sometimes expect here.  Also fair on Sp8 vs the "the guy we have not seen is going to be pass him so easy!" crowd.  Pocket presence is so difficult to coach and he has it in spades and behind that OL will need it in spades.

I am a bit worried about the WRs as there was very little production outside of jet sweeps and such from returning guys - esp if Perry is pushed away.  I know freshman and all but you would have expected with the lack of production of Chesson that someone would have filled that void and put up 18-20 catches.   There are true freshman contributing - Scott at Clemson did straight away.  We didn't see that from our guys.

That said freshman to soph jump is key; I just wish there was more there in terms of actual catching and less of jet sweeping.  These things are also why we'll wait and see on DPJ and Black types - if they can combine for 25 catches that might be the ceiling for them realistically in year 1.

OL unfortunately being equal to this year's is going to be considered a plus.  People quickly forget how highly rated Bredeson was - he was above Chuck F or Ruiz and you saw the struggles.  So all the 'just plug in Chuck and we good" talk...

Going to be an interesting year on offense for sure.  And if that OL can't open up lanes for the RBs - which look like the potential strength of this offense - it's going to be frustrating.

 

Ty Butterfield

January 12th, 2017 at 4:33 PM ^

Hard to be optimistic. This may be closer to what Harbaugh's first season would have looked like if he had not gotten Rudock to come to Michigan. Preparing for 7-5. Hope to be pleasantly surprised. If Drevno stays and the O-line still sucks in 2018 it will be time for a change.

war-dawg69

January 12th, 2017 at 4:54 PM ^

Very confused. First someone is freaked out about players leaving. Then someone says just how mediocre at best some or most are. There is turnover every year because this is college football and I think it gives us a great advantage because we have a great coaching staff that is recruiting at a high level. Reality how the season is going to play out is that nobody knows. I do think the coaching staff has a much better idea of talent on this roster and where our weaknesses are than any of us, but that being said. I like our team for next year. It will look different for sure, but I feel will suhprize. Passing game I have no idea, but I really think our running game will be solid. We probably won't have the number one defense in the country, but since Coach brown is now two years in a row I don't think I am going out on a limb to think it will be solid. Just can't see why everyone isn't excited about next year.

rock7413

January 12th, 2017 at 8:00 PM ^

OLine will be just fine. Has a higher ceiling than this year's group.

Right Guard is the only spot that is still up in the air. Even then we still have multiple potential guys to step up. Runyan, Ulizio, or even one of the many true freshmen coming in. Ruiz is the frosh that has the highest chance of eventually starting imo. Highly rated interior guy, who's also an early enrollee.

LT- Newsome LG- Bredeson C-Cole- RG-? RT-Onwenu

wahooverine

January 12th, 2017 at 11:12 PM ^

Hear me now and believe me later. I think Peters wins the job and the offense becomes a little more open to take advantage of his athleticism and speed,(relative to Speight) as well as the elusiveness and open field running and catching abilities of the backs. This also may mitigate the olines inexperience issues. Peters has an elite arm and, while not a true running QB, he is a very good athlete and fairly fast. Not Kaepernick but rather a young luck. The young WRs are talented, there are many of them and will grow with him. The TEs will also step up with Khakid Hill. Peters has the potential to be an elite redshirt freshmen under Harbaugh's tutelage. Pep Hamilton will play a big role in all this. What this translates to, if it happens, in terms of wins I don't know. I'll guess 9-10 with huge hype for 2018.

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AmayzNblue

January 13th, 2017 at 7:04 AM ^

Part of the consideration into the 2017 season is how the coaches will adjust. If the Oline is truly THAT bad, I could see some increased sweeps and screens to get the ball into Evans' hands in space. We may also develop more of a short passing game to get the ball out of the QBs hands similar to what FSU had to do this season to protect Francois and move the ball.

Point is: Harbaugh

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