Previously: The Offense, UW's defense last year

Resources: My charting, UW game notes, UW roster, Bill C profile, CFBstats

Wisconsin never seems to have a problem replacing key players for their old fashioned 3-4 system. For a generation it's been an endless train of 290-pound DEs, 360-pound nose guards who post Vines of themselves doing crazy acrobatic feats, gap-diving middle linebackers who are far too good in coverage for their purportedly limited athleticism, ultra-grabby, hoodie-wearing jabroni cornerbacks who whine incessantly about the obvious flags they draw, odd couple safeties who are some kind of scrappy, and outside linebackers they had to start giving obviously fake names like "Joe Schobert" and "Vince Biegel" because the public was growing suspicious of the prodigiousness of this supposed "Watt" family. BadgerGen Cloning is a thing.

They still have still have that freaky nose (RIP Vine), got another year of eligibility for the scrappy/small/dreadlocked safety, returned three of their embarrassment of riches at middle linebacker, and the cornerbacks are still out there embarrassing themselves (it's still too warm for hoodies). But they graduated a lot of key players, and are banged up at the replacements. And Iowa moved them off the ball pretty consistently. And their schedule has been pretty kind. And they can't pass rush at all. I dunno you guys, I'm kinda thinking The Year was last year.

Personnel: My diagram:

PDF version, full-size version (or click on the image)

Bemoan Michigan's DT injuries this weekend if you wish, but I warn you not to do so within earshot of any Badger fans. Wisconsin graduated all three main contributors at the two DE spots last year, then took two more body blows in Spring when SDE Garrett Rand, who was also the projected backup NT, and the projected WDE Isaiahh Loudermilk were both injured. Rand is out for the year, and Loudermilk probably should be shut down; he missed the first two games and has been ruled out of this one.

It's not hard to see why they tried to play him hurt; his backup is a redshirt freshman walk-on, DE Matt Henningsen. Iowa went right at Henningsen when he came on the field, and Loudermilk duly limped back. Hobbled as he was, Loudermilk was the only lineman generating any kind of pressure or TFLs on his own. It's a significant loss.

Rand's replacement is another RS freshman, DE Kayden Lyles, who was 207th on the 247 composite last year because 320-pound DTs are much sought after. Lyles may be the future at nose but right now he's way behind on technique and routinely gets planted 4 yards downfield whenever he meets an Iowa double team. NG Olive Sagapolu can still move faster than any 360-pound (the roster lies) human, but Iowa's OL really had their way with him this game too—I won't take away his star because he stayed in contact with his linemen and he can still move faster than any other 360-pound human. His backup is not good—3-star true freshman NG Bryson Williams was the other crumpled thing in a white jersey when Iowa was gashing Lyles. I'm not usually in the habit of putting cyans on the bench unless the guy sees a lot of snaps and is close to charting in the negative double digits, and, well…

Another guy playing hurt is Strongside OLB Andrew Van Ginkel, a star off the bench last year as a pass-rusher. He's been out there, and he's still got that crazy get-off that makes him a terrifying edge attacker, but he can't seem to turn without falling down this year; Iowa's QB managed to escape him with relative ease. The rest of the front not getting much pass rush also nerfs AVG's effectiveness when he's on the field. When he's not they're using another former walk-on, OLB Tyler Johnson, who's just a guy. The normal weakside OLB, Zach Baun, flips over to Van Ginkel's spot when Johnson's on the field. Baun's been injured much of his career and only charted in this game because Iowa's LT was kicking him way upfield a few times; usually he did a fair job of contain and that's all he was asked to do.

The secondary is also casting about for players. Injuries, a transfer, and a targeting penalty that will force FS Scott Nelson (a redshirt freshman Detroiter Don Brown offered at BC) to sit the first half is testing an already shaky unit. Backup FS Eric Burrell was flat-out burned by a tight end on the one play he charted, and he's already behind the obvious weak spot of this defense.

watch #9 the high safety on the left

SS D'Cota Dixon was thinking of the NFL but Wisconsin found another year for him (he didn't play the Big Ten portion of 2014 so they didn't Spartan this) or else things were going to get dire. He's the one real player they have back there. He also was in a precautionary walking boot on Tuesday.

Iowa mostly stayed away from CB Caesar Williams; if they'd gone at him a third time he'd a have a star on my chart, but he's another one of the "Questionable" players on the injury report after leaving the Nebraska game with a leg injury. The other two in the rotation are CB Faion "Handsy" Hicks and CB Deron "Handsy" Harrell, who both commit so much pass interference it even gets called(!). By Big Ten refs (!!!). Hicks does so because he's not fast and is a terrestrial small guy who freaks out if he gets put on a tight end. Harrell does so because he's a recently converted WR. Oddly Harrell started the Iowa (and Nebraska) games over Williams. Harrell also left the Nebraska game under concussion protocol and is the more questionable of the questionables to play. The fourth, true sophomore CB Madison Cone, is a very tiny guy who was very very confused whenever he played.

Of course I've yet to mention two of the best players in the Big Ten, including a guy in the running for "The". We'll get to those inside linebackers in the Dangerman section, after the jump.

[Hit THE JUMP for…yes I know Zach Gentry exists; if you can't stop tenting your fingers just use your nose to click]

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Base Set: 5-2…ahem, 3-4, either head up or with the NG shifted over (to a) one technique. When they go nickel it's a 2-4-5, with the nose coming off the field for a third cornerback.

Really, though, it's a 5-2, and if recruits in the 1970s hadn't been more excited to play "outside linebacker" than "end," and preferred the latter to "tackle," the old 5-2 nomenclature would much better describe the kind of setup we're looking at. They put five on the line, rush five, put a 6'3/325 guy across over an offensive tackle's inside shoulder, and tell him to stay put—calling that a "defensive end" is an insult to Winovichdom. I also want to draw a distinction between the modern Bama/Nebraska/SMU 3-4, where the OLBs are hybrid safeties: Wisconsin's OLBs are 250-pound standup ends who only rarely go into a short coverage zone.

As the offense gets heavier, they'll bring down one or both safeties as extra linebackers, and have a cornerback play overhang safety.

Yes, that sentence made my brain hurt too. In formations such as these it's best not to think of position names as words that mean things.

Man or zone coverage: They were Cover 2 last year but this year they're almost exclusively a Cover 1 man-to-man team. I'm guessing this is a reaction to having so many young players in the secondary, and the problems getting pass rush that they're dealing with by adding…

Pressure: GERG or GREG: It's a good thing I started doing that chart this year because they're going to come out very GREG for a reason other than "we want to blitz all the time."

The chart shows the difference in approaches: SMU's defense is a three-man line that occasionally brings heat from its linebackers; Wisconsin is a five-man line that rarely brings more than that. When the Badgers were in their 4-2-5 they usually brought four. Last year they messed with Michigan by incorporating stunts and zone blitzes that involved the WLB and SS—those have gone away because doing so would remove one of only two guys they trust in pass coverage. Sometimes they'll have one DL looping out as a quasi-spy—complicated sight reads are out until the freshmen ends pick up the basics.

Wisconsin also has a different approach to the "hard-chargin'" vs. "hang-backin'" linebacker slider: one guy (almost always Connelly) is going to fire off like a maniac at run action while the other (Edwards) will back out until he reads something he has to react to. Iowa used a lot of fullback so I got to see a lot of Connelly as a fullback-seeking missile. I guess that's a good segue to their section.

Dangerman: So T.J. Edwards was an All-American to Pro Football Focus in 2016, and one in fact last year, and if you don't know about him you are part of the problem because this guy should be in the NFL right now. If you watch a lot of football on Sundays, Edwards' anticipation and body control will seem NFL-standard; when it happens to a college player the guy's like "Where'd he come from and why won't he shake?"

#53 the linebacker at the top

Edwards's game is not the kind that normally gets on highlight reels because it's a lot of little stuff. The defensive line gets caved and Edwards shoots into the gap and it ends at five yards. Play-action catches him down a step and he's booking toward the open crosser so fast that the quarterback doesn't throw it. Michigan's running game last year was close to breaking a bunch of big runs outside before Edwards dipped past a blocker and ended it.

The Yang to Edwards is Ryan Connelly, another former walk-on who emerged last year when Jack Cichy was lost for the season. Connelly's job in this game was to see where the run is going and explode into it, taking out whatever blocker might happen to be in the way. He is uncommonly good at this.

#43 the linebacker at the bottom

#43 the linebacker at the top:

Here too I should mention the Honorary Wisconsin Linebacker, the well-known SS D'Cota Dixon. I'll quote my HTTV 2018 blurb on him because I had to cut a sentence from it in the final draft and it emphasizes the difference in scheme this year:

First the ball of hate: D’Cota Dixon is a generous 5’10”/205, and everywhere. The agile strong safety likes to come down like he’s playing man-to-man on a slot receiver, where Dixon might blitz, back into his Cover 2, or lock down that slot guy. In that scheme, attempting to get away with a safety playing near the box gives the Badger defense its boom-or-bust character.

Dixon hasn't changed but now that he can't be a Viper as well as safety his effect is greatly diminished. He'll still get there if you try to edge him:

#14 the safety with the amazing hair at the 1st down marker

However with all of the coverage issues plaguing them, Wisconsin has had to stick to man coverage almost exclusively, and that limits what Dixon can affect to one guy

(…who will be 10 inches taller than him)

(shhhhh we're not doing the thing where we feel confident about the offense against a real opponent yet)

(sorry)

Because the other safeties tend to go wherever the quarterbacks' eyes tell them to, Dixon also gets called away often to play the overhang safety in their Cover 1. When he's up there his speed is plenty to cover all but the sideline, however it's not the best use of Wisconsin's most dynamic defender.

OVERVIEW:

This is the design. This is how a 3-4 functions when you actually run it like a 3-4 instead of just calling your weakside end a linebacker and playing gaps. Watch the second Connelly clip again but this time keep an eye on #97:

He lines up on the outside shoulder of that Iowa guard and makes sure he impacts that guy while still taking on the double team from the tackle. Sagapolu is doing the same with the center and the right guard. It's okay that they give up a little ground because what they're doing is keeping the linebackers clean to read. Connelly has no other job on any play that looks like a run but to fly in unblocked at the back and his escort before they can use the space the DL gave up.

As Michigan did when Nebraska was having their LBs read the backfield action, Iowa did find a few ways to mess with this. Watch the fullback's first step and what it does to Connelly:

#43 the linebacker on the hash mark in front of the ref

One huge false step and it's wide open play-action. Here's another play to screw with Connelly's attacking style that you should recognize from my post-Northwestern Neck Sharpies:

Iso! Iowa doubled the nose to Edwards, who has to take that backside gap and thus gets stuck on the wrong side of Sagapolu getting a seven-yard escort. Olive could do much better than to get shoved so far down and turn his back to his gap, and Nelson (#9 the safety) should not have just accepted the left tackle's block. But Wisconsin can survive that stuff so long as a linebacker gets in free. When the fullback can square that guy and remove him from the running lane everything that the Badgers did to win Connelly his free shot becomes space for the running back to work.

When the backup DL are in all of this becomes easier. The mass of bodies is further downfield, the running lane is wider, and your lead blocker has more space to stow away Connelly without forcing the back to get over that mess.

Iowa even went tempo to hold the true freshman nose tackle on the field, leading to this odd clip where they have to cut away from a replay to show the Hawkeyes running the same play with the same result:

After surviving Maryland's pair of legit DEs and The Gaz the last two weeks, Wisconsin's pass rush should be a bit of a break, even if Van Ginkel has healed enough that he's not falling down when he gets a run on the quarterback. They're 125th(!!!) right now in DL Havoc rate, and that was with Loudermilk.

If Patterson has the time to survey, and if pass interference and defensive holding are turned on, we could be in for a breakout passing day. Seeing their two best corners on the playing hurt list does raise the eyebrows. The non-hurt depth chart is the handsier redshirt freshman Faion Hicks, who's listed at 5-10 and doesn't appear very confident when he gets matched on a big guy…

…and 5-9 Madison Cone, whom I didn't see on the field except on plays where he was wracking up –2s. Here he doesn't seem to know the motion call. Dixon is like "go back to your man!" and Cone is confused as to what spot that might be and finally finds the TE he's supposed to switch on and doesn't know what to do so he slips his arm around the guy's waist.

#31 the guy standing on the 3rd & 7 graphic.

Even before the injuries, and losing their free safety for a half, and their only corner with any experience saying Peace Out two days before the season, this was expected to be a comedown year with a very young secondary. There are just too many greenhorns with too little idea of their station for Captain Leonard and Sgt. Dixon to wrangle them all into a consistently cohesive defense. There are going to a few plays where you hope Patterson sees what they left for him and takes it.

And there are going to be a lot of plays where there's no use disguising the defense because they have to play man, rush five, shoot Connelly at the run threat, and keep Edwards and Dixon in reserve.

I know I'm not supposed to feel good about our offense against a defense that gives up just 6 YPP, but you know, Nebraska just scored 24 on them, and Iowa was a 4th and 1 stop and three unlucky turnovers away from scoring a lot more than the 17 they got in just 55 plays, and Notre Dame was a lot of weeks ago, and they're only ranked 55th in defensive S&P+ this year, and Michigan's offense is 25th. Make no mistake: the other side of the ball is strength-on-strength; this one is "Might be good" versus "Might not be."