Previously: Michigan State Offense

not ideal.

I switched around the games a bit for scouting MSU's defense. For recency, I went back over the Maryland game last night. (I recommend doing this.) For an opponent that more closely resembles Michigan, I went back to the Wisconsin game. State had a number of changes to the two-deep between those two games, including moving their best player. I have more notes than are probably necessary, so let's dig right in.

Personnel: Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:

Changes on the Michigan side: Henry Poggi at fullback with Khalid Hill dinged up (Hill may very well still play) and Jehu Chesson loses his shield—the production and draft hype both aren't there right now, but that could change.

MSU has shifted their lineup around quite a bit. Evan Jones, who started the first five games at SDE, is out with an undisclosed injury. To cover for him, Malik McDowell slid out from three-tech to SDE, opening up a spot for Brandon Clemons, who's been surprisingly good for a midseason position-switch starter—he started the first four games at right guard.

CB Darian Hicks was out of the lineup for two games with an injury and returned to his starting spot last week. "STAR" linebacker Jon Reschke has been out since week three with an ankle injury. Riley Bullough is back at the MIKE for at least, like, ten minutes or so.

Base Set? 4-3. MSU utilizes a number of defensive backs in nickel and dime formations. The primary reserve is freshman corner Justin Lane, who usually plays on the outside with Vayante Copeland or another starting DB sliding inside.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]

Man or zone coverage? MSU is still a quarters (Cover 4) team, which means they look like they're playing press man a large percentage of the time. They'll change up coverages on occasion, but their corners look more comfortable in tight coverage than playing off. This play from Hicks is reminiscent of that JT Floyd turnaround against Penn State in the Dark Ages:

For better or worse, they're going to be tight to the line most of the time.

Pressure: GERG or Greg? State is in a bind here. Their pass coverage isn't nearly up to their normal standard, which makes it dangerous to devote extra players to the pass rush. Outside of McDowell, however, they don't have a defensive lineman who can get to the quarterback with any consistency. MSU has mostly chosen to hang back, rush four, and hope for the best in the secondary. Given how they look when they bring heat...

...that appears to be a sound decision.

It does mean the pass rush is entirely dependent on McDowell making a play on his own. Pro Football Focus has charted snaps for 14 MSU defensive linemen; two—McDowell (+14.5!) and backup DT Raequon Williams (+1.8) have positive pass rush grades, and five of their top eight DL have significantly negative grades in that category.

Dangerman: Whether at DT or SDE, Malik McDowell is a one-man wrecking crew. His PFF grades are absurd:+24.5 overall on the year, almost as good against the run as the pass. The only negative I see watching him play is his habit of going into pass-rush mode too early and opening up lanes when opponents run on what would normally be passing downs—and, since he essentially is the pass rush, it's hard to ding him too much for this.

McDowell has a little more impact at DT because it makes it more difficult for opponents to run away from him. He holds up to double-teams, gets a lot of push any time he's single-blocked, and can cover a lot of ground:

While McDowell doesn't have quite the run defense impact at SDE, he still has quite a bit—this is him forcing Maryland's RB to cut back into the teeth of the defense after getting impressively wide to contain and then shedding his block:

Question for Maryland: why are you running outside to the boundary when McDowell is there?

Despite being DT-sized, he's also a dangerous edge-rusher. MSU put him at DE on obvious passing downs even before Jones's injury. This screencap from the Maryland game is the best possible representation of MSU's D-line I can provide—McDowell has beaten the left tackle and running back clean and is dragging Perry Hills down with one arm while the rest of the line might as well be taking a snack break:

McDowell is one of an exceedingly small number of Big Ten defensive linemen who'd obviously start on Michigan's line. That list might not stretch beyond him and Jake Replogle, to be honest.

OVERVIEW

After watching a healthy chunk of MSU's season, what strikes me more than anything is the enormous dropoff in play on the defensive line. Starting DT Kevin Williams has been awful (-15.7 on PFF), but he's entrenched in the lineup despite consistently getting blown off the ball—so consistently that in my notes I started using "Skates" as shorthand for "Williams gets pushed multiple yards downfield." DT Raequon Williams looked decent against Maryland but had an up-and-down outing against a better Wisconsin O-line—he had a couple nice plays against their center, who I noted in the Wisconsin FFFF is pretty bad, and got moved with ease a few times by their more competent guards.

With McDowell on the edge, Brandon Clemons has been the bright spot on the interior—while not a playmaker, he holds up impressively at the point of attack. MSU is so desperate to find another viable tackle that they gave redshirt freshman Kyonta Stallworth, who moved from offense to defense this year, a series against Maryland. On three consecutive plays, ending in this touchdown, he got blasted off the line—watch #51, the DT on the far side of the field:

Every Stallworth play looked like that, and yet MSU was willing to cede an easy touchdown seeing if somehow he would work out. That, as much as anything, tells you where they're at on the defensive line. Well, it's that or the fact that their second-best DL started the first four games on offense.

It's not much better on the edge. WDE Demetrius Cooper, who looked half-decent as a reserve last year, is now grading out at -9.8 on the season—he just kinda takes up space without doing much, and he'll occasionally get pancaked, too. Despite this, Cooper has logged the most snaps of any defensive lineman because nobody else has proven worthy of consistent time. Cooper and McDowell play a huge number of snaps; both were visibly worn down by the end of the Maryland game, in which McDowell briefly exited with an injury.

The linebackers were tough to judge, in large part because MIKE Riley Bullough missed the Wisconsin game with an injury and picked up two personal fouls and an additional targeting penalty against Maryland—in under 11 minutes. He richly deserved the flags and the ejection. PFF has him as a slightly positive player when removing the negative penalty grade; he's cut down on missed tackles with only two so far this year. If he isn't taking really dumb penalties, he's a decent player, and a clear step up from backups Shane Jones and Joe Bachie—the latter replaced Bullough against Maryland even though Jones was healthy. I can only assume that was because MSU's coaches weren't happy with Jones's play earlier in the season. Bachie looked like a true freshman, picking up a -2.9 grade in 53 snaps.

The outside linebackers are a relative strength, especially SAM Chris Frey, who covers a lot of ground sideline-to-sideline, often making plays that cover for the DL's relative weakness. STAR Andrew Dowell is a former safety with good speed and instincts against the run, though his coverage is iffy and he's missed eight tackles this year.

The secondary isn't as bad from a player-by-player perspective as you might expect. They're hurt quite a bit by MSU's complete inability to get to the quarterback, and PFF acknowledges as much—the only defensive back among their top seven with a negative grade is safety Demetrious Cox. Corners Vayante Copeland and Darian Hicks are passable in coverage (or at least press coverage, in Hicks's case) and strong against the run. Justin Layne, who plays corner in nickel and dime sets, is coming along nicely for a freshman—he held up well against a couple deep targets in the Maryland game. Safety Montae Nicholson has come a long way; he's a heavy hitter who's really shored up his coverage, and he's a major positive in run support:

But, man, Cox is not good. His performance against Wisconsin was as ugly as the numbers suggest:

If you’re looking to point the finger at anyone on the Spartans defense, it would be safety Demetrious Cox. He allowed 7-8 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown.

The lone incompletion was a terrible decision by Alex Hornibrook to force a throw between multiple defenders; Cox jumped the route and dropped an easy interception. The rest of the time I've watched him, he's either been burned when getting his assignment right or burned when getting his assignment wrong. This is the former—he wastes near-instant pressure from a stunting McDowell because he's really slow to pick up Troy Fumagalli (Dowell's underneath zone coverage isn't good here, either):

There were enough bad plays from Cox in coverage that I assumed I'd already clipped a bunch when, in fact, that was the only one. There's also this deep touchdown from the Maryland game; Cox looks like the main culprit because he passes off the receiver to nobody, but the panicked retreat by #27 Khari Willis—a safety frequently deployed in nickel/dime situations—indicates the bust was on Willis:

Either way, MSU is prone to busts in the back, and there's no pass rush to cover for them.

Finally, here's Cox attempting to make an open-field tackle against a bubble screen:

nope

I have more notes and more video and more screencaps, but there's not much reason to pile on (as fun as that might be). State's defensive line is beat up and, outside of McDowell, pretty darn bad in both phases. The linebackers are decent but not anything special. The secondary is improved but has a flashing "throw it here" sign at one safety spot. Whatever method Jim Harbaugh chooses to carve up this defense should work.