Jacob Slade is legit [Bryan Fuller]

The Enemy, Ranked 2022: Defensive Line Comment Count

Alex.Drain August 23rd, 2022 at 1:18 PM

Previously: QuarterbackRunning BacksReceivers, Offensive Line

Now we move to the defensive side of the football, where things will begin to change a bit. Maryland will see a mighty fall at many positional groups, while Iowa will likely rise and plenty more shakeups will occur. Much like the OL, I will be blending PFF grades with my own charting when we move into opponents on the schedule from last fall. One more note: for this piece, I'm considering defensive lines to be interior DL and EDGE players, so both traditional DEs and standup pass rushers who some teams call "OLBs". 

 

12. Hawaii 

DE DT DT DE
Andrew Faoliu Blessman Ta'ala John Tuitupou Mataio Soli
Andrew Choi   Jojo Falo  

The turnover from Todd Graham to Timmy Chang has been felt most severely on the defensive side of the ball for Hawaii, where they return just one starter on the defensive line and have a single player on this depth chart who played more than 100 snaps a year ago... yikes! Blessman Ta'ala might win the best name of the enemy series, and he is also a quality defensive tackle who takes on double teams well. That's about it in terms of projectable talent though; the rest will likely be rough. John Tuitupou is the other projected defensive tackle, an upperclassman but one without a ton of experience. He played only 95 snaps a year ago (though he was solid in those snaps). Andrew Faoliu transfers in from Oregon, having had a small role in 2019-20 before not playing last season. Mataio Soli arrives at the other end spot from Arkansas, playing just 65 snaps a year ago but the former 4* pedigree helps a little I guess. ​​​​​​Farther down the depth chart you find another transfer name in Jojo Falo, coming in from Air Force, as well as Andrew Choi, who was on the scout team last season.

This is a pretty grim situation and the Rainbow Warriors were a pretty easy decision to slot in 12th. They have little returning production, little program continuity, and little experience overall. Most teams should be able to go around Ta'ala by targeting the rest of the line and finding great success doing it. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: guess which Rutgers DE is now with a non-con opponent]

 

[UCONN Athletics]

11. Connecticut 

LE NT RE RAZOR
Sokoya McDuffie Dal'Mont Gourdine Eric Watts Kevon Jones
  Jelani Stafford   Brandon Bouyer-Randle

This.... isn't as horrible as I was expecting? There are some moving pieces here for sure, but for a bottom barrel FBS team, this DL is far from the worst case scenario. First of all, we should address the scheme: Jim Mora Jr. is moving UCONN to a 3-4, but the OLB position known as "RAZOR" uses edge defenders, which includes returner Kevon Jones. Jones had 60 tackles and a couple sacks a year ago and should be the best player of this positional group. As the RAZOR, Jones will get to drop into coverage, rush the passer, and defend the run, a Swiss Army Knife of sorts for the defense. 

The other returning starter is Eric Watts as a 3-4 defensive end (down lineman), and he's okay. Dal'Mont Gourdine moves up the depth chart at nose tackle, having played a heavy snap count last season as the 3rd defensive tackle. He probably won't be a star, but PFF's grading says he's far from a disaster. Sokoya McDuffie arrives after being Old Dominion's 3Tech a year ago and will be asked to be the other "defensive end" in this system. Similar story to Gourdine here via PFF, not horrible, not particularly great. Depth comes in the form of Youngstown transfer Jelani Stafford and Texas Tech transfer Brandon Bouyer-Randle. Not much to say about either of those guys, but the latter did play a real rotational role at a P5 school, so that's something. 

In total, you have a group that probably isn't wowing anyone, but all four starters + one backup have played real rotational (or more) snaps at FBS programs. Some of them are fresh faces and faced poor competition, etc, but that is actual experience to speak of, which you can't say for Hawaii. That moves the Huskies up a slot and gets them out of the cellar. 

 

10. Colorado State 

DE DT DT DE
CJ Onyechi Devin Phillips Grady Kelly Mohamed Kamara
Troy Golden James Mitchell Cam Beriteau  

Extremely attuned B1G fans may notice that the Rams are slated to start a former B1G (half)starter, CJ Onyechi, formerly of Rutgers. Onyechi transferred to CSU in the offseason and is set to start at DE. He was mostly just a guy last year in the B1G and I'd expect that to be the case against Michigan, but he could be a solid player in the Mountain West. Devin Phillips returns as a starter at DT and he made Phil Steele's preseason projected 3rd Team All-MWC list based on a strong 2021 campaign. The same was true of Mohamed Kamara, who was CSU's 3rd edge last season and did well as a pass rusher, but PFF viewed him less favorably as a run defender. Kamara was on Steele's 4th Team All-MWC preseason list. The final starter is Grady Kelly, who was seldom used as a true freshman last year but is looking for a larger role. 

The reserves are a collection of players with backing roles last season, none of them playing more than 100 snaps. There's not a ton to say about those guys, but I felt that Colorado State was clearly the best non-conference defensive line here. UCONN's is not atrocious, but CSU has a former rotational player for a B1G team starting at one spot and two possible All-MWC selections at other spots. That's a better collection of talent than what the Huskies can offer. 

 

[Maryland Athletics]

9. Maryland 

DE NT DT DE/JACK
Greg China-Rose Ami Finau Mosiah Nasili-KIte Durrell Nchami
Quashon Fuller Henry Chibueze Anthony Booker Jr. Jaishawn Barham

Ah, Maryland. It's not offense anymore, is it? The Terps return both defensive tackles (Finau/Nasili-Kite) but that's not really a good thing in my charting. Both were weak spots last season and received the ole cyan circle on my FFFF diagram, even if PFF looked at them a bit more favorably (they graded as average). The difference lies in how they did against better competition, which is my problem with the Maryland defense at large: generally respectable to solid against weak competition, but getting detonated by anyone with a real offense. Liberty transfer Henry Chibueze enters the fray at nose and Anthony Booker Jr. flashed in very limited work, but if neither find a way to beat out the starters, provided those two don't take big jumps, this is a rough interior defensive line projection when it comes to playing offenses with a pulse. 

I do like Durrell Nchami, though. He got hit with the injury bug early last season and Maryland definitely missed him. With Lawtez Rodgers out of the picture at the JACK spot, Nchami projects to be the starter and the most important passrusher on the line. If he can get and stay healthy, that is the most likely position on the line to get a star on a future diagram. The other edge spot saw the only player with a star last year, Sam Okuayinou, take off, which means Greg China-Rose is the next man up. He was not particularly great in rotational duty in 2021. The reserves at these two spots are pretty green, so the hope for Maryland is that the edge starters keep their jobs, stay in one piece, and are decent. 

There is hope for this group and I'm not ready to write them off entirely. Both tackles are returning players, even if they were subpar last year. They could both improve. Nchami could be a Dude, and Greg China-Rose could be decent. It could not be bad, but on paper, right now, it is. And out of all the B1G opponents, the Maryland DL is worst as of this writing. 

 

8. Indiana 

DE DT DT DE/BULL
James Head Jr. JH Tevis Demarcus Elliott Alfred Bryant
Beau Robbins LeDarrius Cox Sio Nofoagatoto'a Myles Jackson

The Hoosiers are next up on the list, and their defensive line takes a hit compared to last season, losing Ryder Anderson, who was the lone star on last season's FFFF diagram. Both cyans return, however, and those were Demarcus Elliott and Alfred Bryant, who plays the standup "BULL" position. I felt that Elliott was the weakest player on the line last season, and his problems on the interior forced Sio Nofoagatoto'a to rotate in, a player that also returns. As for Bryant, he was a solid pass rusher who struggled with the other components of the game. 

The slot vacated by Anderson at the other edge position is filled by James Head Jr., a rotational piece last season who PFF's grading argues should've been a cyan circle, not exactly what you want to hear about a starter. The loss of Weston Kramer at DT has forced Indiana to plug the hole with JH Tevis, a Cal transfer who was a respectable player in the PAC-12 last season as a starter. The only other reserve to note is LeDarrius Cox, who comes in from Ole Miss, but I don't have a ton to say about him. 

IU finds themselves 8th on the list because out of four starters, there are two where denoted as being weak pieces a year ago, and a third who ascends to a starting role that could've received the same treatment. Oh, and the fourth was not in the program in 2021. That's a wobbly hodgepodge of not great. One could make the case for Maryland ahead of Indiana, but here's where I cut the Hoosiers and Tom Allen a bit of credit, giving them the nod based on their track record of defensive competency when facing the better B1G offenses compared to Mike Locksley's record of defensive [NSFW]. 

 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

7. Rutgers

DE DT DT DE
Aaron Lewis Mayan Ahantou Ifeanyi Maijeh Wesley Bailey
Kyonte Hamilton Rene Konga Troy Rainey Jahzion Harris

The Rutgers' DL sees a decent bit of churn, which you may have been able to guess from seeing CJ Onyechi with CSU. He, looooongtime Scarlet Knight Mike Tverdov, and gnat Julius Turner all exit, while Mohammed Toure is dealing with injury problems. That leads to a relatively new group of players, although there are nominal returning starters at both defensive tackle spots. Those players are Mayan Ahantou and Ifeanyi Maijeh, who both played a solid amount for Rutgers in 2021 and both are... okay? I don't have much to say about either, though maybe Ahantou is bordering on cyan territory based on his PFF grade (I don't have any individual scouting on him from FFFF). 

At defensive end, Aaron Lewis, one-time Michigan commit, is scheduled to step up into a starting capacity after being a rotational edge rusher the last couple of years. That should be alright but does not project to be a star in waiting. The same thing could be said about Wesley Bailey at the other edge position, as well as Kyonte Hamilton, both of whom were farther down the list of rotational pieces last year. The backup tackles got very little duty last season and now as RS FR are poised to take on larger roles for the Scarlett Knights. 

There's no one here that really excites me, but there also are no players except maybe Ahantou where I'm obviously on cyan watch, which puts Rutgers ahead of Indiana. Not to mention that Rutgers under Greg Schiano has done well on the defensive lines by slanting their tackles inside and turning the line of scrimmage into a slog.  

 

6. Illinois 

DE NT DE EDGE/OLB
Jer'Zhan Newton Calvin Avery Keith Randolph Jr. Seth Coleman
Bryce Barnes TeRah Edwards Jamal Woods Ezekiel Holmes

Bret Bielema has brought Wisconsin's 3-4 defensive system with him to Illinois, which means three down linemen + one OLB who is more of a passrusher. The Illini had a very respectable defensive front a year ago, but heavy losses have sapped it of some stars (Owen Carney and Roderick Perry) and knocked the Illini down the ranking to #7. They return Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton, who was middling last season in PFF's grading but was only in his second year in the program. With 3 sacks to his name in 2021, it's reasonable to think Newton could take a step forward. Keith Randolph Jr. is the other returning starter at the other down lineman "DE" spot, and he was rock solid per PFF's numbers. 

Where Illinois is needing to rebuild their defense is at nose tackle, where Calvin Avery would appear to be a shaky first-time starter after getting 201 snaps a year ago, and EDGE, where Seth Coleman would be in line to try and replace Carney's 6.5 sacks. PFF liked Coleman last season, but he will be going from rotational to a true starter, which is a jump for a young player. Ezekiel Holmes played a limited role last season but can provide support if needed. The depth as a whole is pretty thin. Jamal Woods would seem to be the first up on the true DL with 158 snaps to his name, while Bryce Barnes and TeRah Edwards are very inexperienced, the latter being a transfer from Northwestern. 

I think this group has some potential. Randolph, Coleman, and Newton are all on the younger side of things and I think it's reasonable to believe they could improve, while Avery, a 2018 recruit, may be closer to a finished product. There's a bit of projection going on here and no obvious star, but I like the star potential more than I do with Rutgers, which gives Illinois the nod. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

5. Penn State 

DE NT DT DE
Adisa Isaac PJ Mustipher Coziah Izzard Nick Tarburton
Smith Vilbert Dvon Ellies Hakeem Beamon Chop Robinson

PSU's defensive line is, in some ways, like looking into a mirror at Michigan's situation, although (for reasons I'll explain later) I like Michigan's depth a bit more. The reason I bring up the comparison, though, is that both teams lose their two star edge rushers, with PSU losing Arnold Ebiketie and Jesse Luketa, both being pretty significant losses. How they will plug those holes is a bit of an open question. Adisa Isaac is the highest upside option, a former blue chipper who was everyone's pick to be the breakout player of the defense last year when he ripped up his Achilles before week one (Ojabo parallels too!). If he can be back to 100%, Isaac has the best potential, whereas Nick Tarburton is a decent run defender but isn't going to give you much pass rush. Beyond that, Smith Vilbert had some moments in the Outback Bowl, and Demeioun "Chop" Robinson was a blue chip TR FR at Maryland last fall before bailing for PSU. How far he can come along in Year #2 at a new program is to be determined. 

At defensive tackle, Penn State gets the return of PJ Mustipher, and that's nothing to scoff at. Mustipher is a legit Dude, a super important piece of PSU's run defense and his absence was sorely missed in that Illinois 9OT-2Point-fest game after a mid-season injury. Mustipher's injury highlighted the very real depth problems at defensive tackle, as both Dvon Ellies and Coziah Izzard were major eyesores, and Hakeem Beamon couldn't even see the field during a mysterious RS season. Getting Mustipher back is huge, and he's a likely star on this DL, but the DTs have real questions outside of him. 

In totality, PSU boasts a defensive line with a pretty wide range of outcomes in my view. There's a scenario where, say, Robinson and Isaac both pop and when combined with Mustipher, the PSU DL is top notch. But there's also a scenario where the edge rushers are just guys, Mustipher is good but still feeling the effects of the injury, and the other defensive tackles are terrible again, in which case PSU's DL could be a real weakness. Trying to get a feel for the range outcomes made me more or less split the difference and put the Nittany Lions smack dab in the middle here at #5. 

 

4. Nebraska 

DE NT DT EDGE/OLB
Caleb Tannor Ty Robinson Devin Drew Garrett Nelson
Ochaun Mathis Stephon Wynn Jr. Nash Hutmacher Jimari Butler

I was a big fan of the Husker DL last season and unfortunately the two key cogs of that unit have exited the program in Damion Daniels and Ben Stille. Don't fear, though! Scott Frost has more transfers coming down the pike here at Transfer U. The returning talent is decent at the edges, where Caleb Tannor is just a guy but Garrett Nelson feels like a rising star. Nelson plays the stand up OLB/EDGE position and he racked up 5 sacks and 6.5 TFL last season. With another year of seasoning, Nelson should find his way on to the All-B1G team. Tannor at the other edge spot has a better feel for the all-around profile of the position, but if the Huskers want pure pass rush, Ochaun Mathis is a hell of an option, a transfer from TCU. Mathis was 2nd Team All-Big 12 last season with a stat line boasting 4 sacks and 7 TFL. This combination of options gives Nebraska one of the best edge setups in the conference, in my opinion. 

I have more questions on the interior, though, where the loss of Stille and Daniels will really hurt. Ty Robinson was bad last season for the Huskers, even though his recruiting ranking indicates he should be better, and though Devin Drew got good marks from PFF at Texas Tech, he's joining a new program. The same can be said for backup Stephon Wynn Jr., arriving from Alabama, while Nash Hutmacher played just 26 snaps last season. The coaching staff will need to make this group gel. There are reasons to believe it could be pretty solid, but they need improvement from Robinson and to integrate fresh faces at this positional group. 

Still, with the strength of the edges and the likelihood that Drew and/or Wynn are at least decent transfer pickups, Nebraska ranks pretty highly on my list. I debated between them and PSU, but for now, the experience and fewer question marks/range of outcomes gave Big Red a small nod. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

3. Ohio State 

DE DT NT JACK/"LEO"
JT Tuimoloa Tyleik Williams Taron Vincent Zach Harrison
Javontae Jean-Baptiste Ty Hamilton Jarron Cage Jack Sawyer

Speaking of a range of outcomes, Ohio State! The Buckeyes I could see ranking as high as #1 by the end of the season because, well, it's Ohio State. They have talent pouring out their ears and if they figure out how to unlock that talent and integrate it into a new scheme, they could shoot up the list. But I also can't rank them at the top right now based on what I saw from them at times last season, considering it's mostly the same guys... and the two who depart were their best tackle (Haskell Garrett) and best edge (Tyreke Smith) in your author's charting. 

But talent, yeah, it's here. The four edge positions are inhabited by three former 5* talents and one former 4*. Zach Harrison hasn't really become the monster he was expected to be, but he's a very solid player. What's interesting is that it seems like he may get the first attempt at playing Jim Knowles' "LEO" hybrid edge. We'll see how long that lasts. Worst case scenario is that OSU abandons it and just lets hyper athletic edge rushers rush the QB. The other edge spot sees the ascension of JT Tuimoloa, a top five national prospect in the 2021 class who I felt was extremely disappointing when I saw him last fall, but again, true freshman. It's very early. Jack Sawyer was also a top five prospect in that same class and I liked him quite a bit more. Both seem like obvious breakout candidates, while Javontae Jean-Baptiste is still around and still mostly a guy. Fine to put him in the rotational mix. 

The defensive tackles have a pair of veterans at nose tackle in Taron Vincent and Jarron Cage, and a pair of youngsters at DT in Tyleik Williams and Ty Hamilton. Everyone here has recruiting stars o'plenty in their past, so there's a lot for Knowles to work with. And as a whole, they were pretty decent last season... that is until they got paved off the road by Michigan's offensive line in The Game. Which, like OL, is sorta the enigma here. I like OSU's talent, and with competent coaching, I think they should move back to near the top spot. But they have to earn that, and I can't rank them higher than two teams who fared far better against Michigan's between the tackles running game a year ago (also teams who got an ounce of pass rush). So the Buckeyes sit at #3 right now. 

 

2. Michigan State 

DE DT DT DE
Brandon Wright Jacob Slade Simeon Barrow Khris Bogle
Jeff Pietrowski Jalen Hunt Maverick Hansen Itayvion Brown

I love Michigan State's defensive tackles but am more iffy on their defensive ends. The headliner of this group is Jacob Slade, who was a monster in the middle of the line a year ago, giving Michigan's guards all kinds of problems, a big part of MSU's victory in the rivalry game. What really helps MSU is the fact they have a glut of options at that position, even if no one is anywhere close to as good as Slade is. Simeon Barrow is a quality starter, and then a mix of Jalen HuntMaverick Hansen, and Deshaun Mallory, who I didn't even have room to list here, provides probably the deepest collection of DTs in the conference. Mark Dantonio left the program in a pretty rough place, but even his late stage years couldn't fully destroy the assembly line of feisty DTs that East Lansing produces. 

That situation on the interior gives MSU a very high floor, but defensive end is a bit more of a muddled picture. Right now some depth charts have Brandon Wright ahead of Jeff Pietrowski, which is surprising. Pietrowski was essentially a starter last year and a pretty damn good one in fact. If Wright, a converted RB who they like as a speed rushing option, is ahead of him, that's a pretty good sign. Khris Bogle on the other side of the line comes over as a transfer from Florida after being a rotational piece in Gainesville with mediocre marks from PFF. Itayvion Brown made the positional switch from LB and is the projected backup, but if I had to name an area of weakness on the DL, it would pretty clearly be at this edge spot.  

Overall, though, MSU ranks near the top because they can offer a star DT, a quality starter next to him, and then infinite depth at that position, as well as a half-returning starter who was quality at EDGE, a transfer EDGE who was a rotational piece at an SEC school, and intriguing upside plays. It's not a perfect line and I wonder if they may struggle to generate pass rush against elite OLs, but against most teams, the Spartan defensive line should win the day. 

 

[Bryan Fuller]

1. Iowa 

DE DT DT DE
John Waggoner Noah Shannon Logan Lee Joe Evans
Ethan Hurkett Lukas Van Ness Yaha Black Dontae Craig 

The Hawkeyes surprisingly find themselves in the pole position of this list, and it's mostly because of depth and experience over star power. Though they do lose a DE starter in Zach VanValkenburg, the Hawkeyes return a full DE starter (John Waggoner) and a half-starter in Joe Evans, as well as four defensive tackles who played at least 330 snaps last season, and no one in this group profiles as an obvious weakness. Having a laundry list of bodies who can give you quality snaps is a pretty nice luxury and it's what lands Iowa #1. 

Noah Shannon and Logan Lee project as impact defensive tackles in the middle of the defense, Waggoner is a decent edge guy and Joe Evans was pretty good last season. I'd bet on the latter being a potential dangerman on the defense, and like with MSU, the sheer depth at defensive tackle, where every contributor returns, is impactful. The same can be said for the return of Dontae Craig, a respectable rotational piece at defensive end.

There is not a ton of flash here, but Iowa's steadiness and statistical profile last season speaks for itself. The Hawkeyes were 13th best nationally in rushing yards allowed per game last season (best of any team on Michigan's schedule this fall) and they return nearly everyone from that defensive line. The B1G Championship Game tape revealed a similar story, as Michigan really got two key plays on the ground outside the tackles (one to Corum and one to Henning), and otherwise they were well under 4 yards per carry against Iowa. That's because the Hawkeyes are legit in the defensive trenches, which puts them at #1. 

 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Where would Michigan rank?

I would put Michigan somewhere in the 3-4 range I think? The Wolverines definitely have some questions to answer on the defensive line, but that's only natural when you graduate two first round caliber pass rushing talents. I do really like the defensive tackle potential, with Mazi Smith being a possible Dude and Kris Jenkins being everyone's pick as a breakout player. That could be one of the best interior tandems in the conference, hands down. And I also think Mike Morris should be a quality B1G starter, although probably not a pass rushing extraordinaire. I think the combination of him + the defensive tackles means Michigan should have one of the league's best run defenses, but I definitely wonder about drop off in the pass rush. Indeed, that's really the biggest question on the team. There are plenty of talented options between Braiden McGregor and Derrick Moore and Jaylen Harrell, etc, but no obvious answer. 

I think Michigan slots ahead of PSU because the questions are similar between the two teams at EDGE, but Michigan's tandem of DTs are better. Compared to Nebraska, I think it's close, with Michigan getting the nod inside and Nebraska with the much better pass rush outside. Similar story to Ohio State, where the Buckeyes have considerably more talent and pass rushing upside, but also questions as well. Somewhere in that range feels fitting to me, but there is a range of outcomes and higher potential possible. 

Comments

BuckeyeChuck

August 23rd, 2022 at 2:50 PM ^

This take is short-sighted. He's relying on Larry Johnson who does have "dominant DL" in his DNA. The 2021 DL was admittedly disappointing, however.

It's like if I said in a couple years ago that "Harbaugh will never have a dominant WR group" because it hasn't appeared to be part of Harbaugh's DNA. But we'll see if Michigan is able to buck that trend this year by using their WRs competently. I know for certain that I shouldn't dismiss Michigan's receivers simply because they haven't appeared to be part of Harbaugh's DNA thus far.

Buy Bushwood

August 23rd, 2022 at 5:20 PM ^

Saying Harbaugh won't have great receivers is foolish. Saying Harbaugh would never have an OSU-type of passing attack, isn't.  That's what's in Harbaugh's DNA, a style of football.  Same with Day. He can rely on whatever coordinators he chooses. But smash mouth, trench-based football isn't in his DNA, so he isn't ever going to have a team that crushes it among the uglies. It went away almost as soon as Meyer left. Now it's gone on both sides of the ball. It's not in Day's DNA to bring it back, just like it's not in Harbaugh's DNA to blow the roof with a dominant passing game. I'm not making a prediction about who will win the game, because, to a large extent, teams can win these days without the best lines.  That's the point of the spread offense. 

mGrowOld

August 23rd, 2022 at 1:38 PM ^

Three thoughts:

1. I really like these a lot.  This format beats, destroys, cripples, pummels, annihilates, suffocates, cremates & desecrates the old Draftegeddon format that tried (and failed miserably) to convey the same information to us plebes.  THIS format I get.  THIS method of conveying each team's relative strength's and weaknesses by position group makes all the sense in the world.  Thank you, thank you, thank you!

2. Michigan is back baby.  We'll roll into C-Bus either undefeated or with one loss IMO as will they.  Cannot wait for the season to get started.  Recruiting this year is taking a hit thanks to Jim's desire to have a hall pass but hopefully his wandering eye has been satisfied.  Two straights great years and recruiting will come right back in line.

3. Dont's sleep on MSU.  They ranked very high in all offensive position group and right out of the gate they're #2 with their D-line.  I expect them to also have a very good season (unfortunately).

Did I mention I like this format a bit better than Draftegeddon? 

M_Born M_Believer

August 23rd, 2022 at 2:07 PM ^

1. Yes Know thy Enemy>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Draftegeddon

2. Yes, I have not been this pumped up for a season in a long time (2016?)

3. I stated in another thread and I say it here too.  MSU is good, but their enemy ranking is comparative to our schedule, which is full of creampuffs.  By default any semi-competent unit would be no lower than 5 maybe 6.  Doesn't make them world beaters.  Yay, yay, yay they treat the game against us like their Super Bowl.  But Thorn is not #2, even on this list (Athlon ranked all 130 QB, Thorn was 6th or 7th in this conference) what does make him dangerous is the elite level of chemistry he has with Reed.

While they have fared well so far, wait until the next 2 sections (particularly the secondary section.... that will be their Achilles)

JHumich

August 24th, 2022 at 3:45 PM ^

MSU is better than we feel like letting ourselves think.

Both EDGEs last year had big steps up, even over their previous performance. Not only do we have the same things in place for this years guys, but these guys also got to observe last year up close. Also, I don't understand why no one is expecting Welschof to be a monster. I fully expect him to. All that to say that I would be more surprised if OSU topped this list by the end of the year than if Michigan did. In fact, I expect that we will.

Chaco

August 23rd, 2022 at 2:29 PM ^

I agree MGrowOld............but it has brought home to me in a very profound way how bad UConn is relative to other teams on our schedule - which is relevant because it is likely the only game I make this year.  Guess my son and I are in for an afternoon of depth chart learning....

denverblue

August 23rd, 2022 at 5:33 PM ^

Additionally, would say that OL is arguably the hardest position to project due to sheer amount of literal and figurative development needed to take place from high school. So it may be possible that stars, while they matter overall, may be less of an influence on OL prediction. As a result, it's possible to unearth more "diamonds in the rough" OL types if you're able to teach them the fundamentals and grow into the position.

MGlobules

August 23rd, 2022 at 7:24 PM ^

That's what would delight me--just be counted on to go in and play toe to f'ing toe with them, never backing down from the fight, for a decade or so here. It certainly is a piece of the psychological puzzle that they'll need to overcome now, in the wake of last year's M win: They got punked, and they know it. 

iMBlue2

August 23rd, 2022 at 2:20 PM ^

While it would be a fools errand to believe the production on the DL will be matched from 2021, the pieces are in place for M to have a very scrappy front.  It can’t be overstated having a player like Mazi with his strength and athleticism relative to the position T nose.  Having a guy like that as the tip of the spear being able to not only take double but pushed them back makes the other 10 so much. Enter.  A great nose creates more time for backers to diagnose and fly and additionally creates different angles for the other DL to rush from.  Kris Jenkins is going to get 4-6 sacks.  I see Morris getting 6-8,  he would have had more last season he was often right there in the midst of the Hutch and Ojabo Swarm.

calgoblue81

August 23rd, 2022 at 2:20 PM ^

As always, informative and thoughtful analysis.  My take is PSU ahead of NB.  OSU ahead of MSU.  Iowa number 2 and UofM #1.  I think Mazi is a beast (certainly better than Slade) and excellent athletes overall on the Michigan line in Jenkins, Morris and crew.  I think the BTN guys were duly impressed too (though that should not be the barometer by which we judge).

Really like these write ups, and really looking forward to secondary.

Glanville

August 23rd, 2022 at 2:22 PM ^

Good stuff as always, but I can't determine how you distinguish between your top 5 (the top 4, plus us).  maybe too close to be confident but you tend to rank us lower than your descriptions of other teams would indicate.  

The Homie J

August 23rd, 2022 at 2:59 PM ^

Based on all these rankings so far, I feel REALLY good about our chances to go 10-2/11-1.  There's only 2-3 teams that I think can actually give us a challenge (assuming we're healthy at most or all spots).

Ohio State is Ohio State.  Defense could be great, could be about the same as last year.  But winning in Columbus is nightmare.

Michigan State is sneakily good, and plays outta their minds against us.  Their defense is stout against the run (pass defense is an open question though, so throw the ball to Ronnie/CJ/Roman/Andrel!).  And their offense will likely be similar to last year, which is effective enough win to most games, although I think KWIII covered up a lot of holes in their OL which may get exposed this year.  Glad this game is at home.

Nebraska will also be feisty, and depending on how the rest of their season goes, they could be coming to Ann Arbor either looking to cement their first successful season under Frost or trying to save his job or send him out on a high note.  But they were very close to good and I find it hard to believe they have the same amount of bad luck in close games as they did last year.  I think this is the most underrated challenge on the schedule but it also could be an easy win if their season has already fallen apart by the time they visit.

Penn State and Iowa don't scare me as much (minus the Kinnick voodoo factor).  Penn State's OL is bad, and doesn't appear set to improve by leaps and bounds.  And their defense, which was good enough to make their offensive weaknesses irrelevant, will no longer be such a strength.  And they never play well in Ann Arbor (no, 2020 doesn't count).  Iowa's defense is fierce, but they're easily beaten if you score 20 points or more, which our offense easily should.  Maryland's offense will be a tough test for our defense, but our offense should also eviscerate their defense, so that's a wash, and we always seem to crush Maryland no matter what.

GET OFF YOUR H…

August 23rd, 2022 at 3:06 PM ^

Sleeping on Tuimoloau is dangerous.  Dude arrived on campus in August of last year.  This is his first offseason.  He played more than he probably should have last year coming in that late, but he is going to be hard to keep off the field.

BuckeyeChuck

August 23rd, 2022 at 3:12 PM ^

Great write-up again, Alex! I can't fathom how many hours you spend prepping all these lists.

It's fair to drop OSU to #3 because DL production last season was indeed disappointing. But I get the feeling that was a "year before" season (kinda like what Hutch & Ojabo were in 2020) primed for a more experienced, more polished unit in 2022. I think OSU would rank #1 on a post-season version of this list, but of course I'm biased.

Zach Harrison is more internally motivated than ever before to be a monster in this his senior season; but as Alex pointed out, he's been a bit disappointing, as evidenced by the fact that he would have been expected to be a 3-year guy and here he is sticking around for a 4th season. But I think he's finally gonna pop.

The two kids (JT & Sawyer) played occasionally last year, but they will be major factors this year; Sawyer in the Jack position could be a sweet spot. Tyleik Williams is having a monster camp.

The strength of this unit is that they will again rotate about 9 players on the DL, keeping the best players fresh for the most-needed moments of the game.

They'd better show up on Nov 26, or this is all moot.

The Homie J

August 23rd, 2022 at 3:52 PM ^

I get the feeling that was a "year before" season (kinda like what Hutch & Ojabo were in 2020)

This might blow your mind Chuck, but Aiden only played 2 games in 2020 prior to a season ending injury.  We knew he was good due to his play in 2019, but it wasn't guaranteed how good he'd be coming back from a leg fracture.  And even more amazing, David Ojabo only played 26 SNAPS before the 2021 season.  Going into 2021, he wasn't even on our radar for a star player.  Don't believe me, here's the 2021 preview for defense where David Ojabo is mentioned zero times (yes, zero times).

https://mgoblog.com/content/preview-2021-five-questions-five-answers-defense

This is why we're more confident in our ability to replace our 2 DE's (although a drop off is obviously inevitable).  We've consistently throughout Harbaugh's tenure bounced from 1 great DE tandom to another (Wormley/Charleton to Winovich/Gary to Paye/Hutchinson to Hutchinson/Ojabo) even without any sign of those guys being the dudes they would become.  Winovich, for example, was a tight end when he came here.  Nobody saw him becoming the player he was.

Just thought it was interesting how many people outside the fanbase think Ojabo was a star in the waiting when nobody even knew how much he'd play going into last year.

BuckeyeChuck

August 23rd, 2022 at 4:28 PM ^

I did know that Hutch had a season-ending injury, and I also knew that Ojabo played sparingly but I did not know it was only for 26 snaps. (!)

I just recall that Michigan's DL without Hutch & Paye in 2020 looked miserable (see: Wisconsin game) and nobody in the world thought that unit would contribute toward being conference champions the following year.

Then my analogy stands when considering 2019 Paye as the "year before" a break out season. (How about that?)

OSUMC Wolverine

August 23rd, 2022 at 4:22 PM ^

i saw z harrison play several times in high school. motivated is not a word i would have used to desribe him. he took all plays to opposite side off and also stopped as soon as the action was past LOS. maybe he found it the last few years....but he had none in high school. that being said, in the plays he deemed worthy of his effort in high school he was a beast.

Watching From Afar

August 23rd, 2022 at 3:52 PM ^

Boy, I really hope Michigan doesn't go into the MSU or Iowa game with the approach to try and beat them to death wither a lead pipe in a phone booth.

That's the next evolution I'd like to see from the offense. Being multiple enough to attack teams not at their strength, but where they're weakest, even if that means utilizing a part of the offense that isn't Michigan's strength.

If MSU's secondary is still a flashing "KICK ME" sign this season, go attack it. No need to get into a rock fight in the trenches against their best unit unless you can overwhelm them clearly.