Dear Diary is Waving Like He Just Don’t Care Comment Count

Seth October 14th, 2016 at 4:49 PM

THIS MONTH IN MGOBLOG HISTORY:

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Happy 10-year anniversary, Anthony. Anthony? You can get up now. Seriously you guys just scored or something I think.

I LIKE YOUR DISTRIBUTION

The conference win probabilities in Ecky Pting’s mid-season B1G Expectations say Michigan is likely to make it to The Game undefeated and has a 37% chance of winning out. Also it’ll be an uphill battle for one adjacent rival to make a bowl according to S&P:

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State’s expected conference wins is now at 2.7, meaning if they’re a little bit lucky they’ll finish this season 5-7. Everybody in the B1G West is mediocre except Illinois leans pretty bad and Purdue is awful.

PATRICK SEES RED, DAVID SEES BLUE

BlueBarron is Patrick Barron, whose photography was first featured in HTTV Hockey-Hoops several years back when he was on the Daily, and who’s now part of our staff. He went to Rutgers and wrote a photo journal capturing the electric atmosphere of a night game in Piscataway:

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Okay surely they looked more excited AFTER the game started.

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See? There are two dudes behind the field goal who even have their arms in the air.

Also David Nasternack, who’s our do-everything behind the scenes guy, wrote up the first hockey game.

HISTORY MGOBLUE

As Brian mentioned in his game column after Rutgers, the last time a team got beat as badly as Rutgers by Michigan, it was 1939, and the University of Chicago (HINT HINT) shut down its football team shortly after. The grandson of 1939 Michigan player Fred Olds wrote a diary about his grandpa’s team and how the OP became a fan. Those pre-War teams do still get together, though there are very few of them left.

MGrowOld has continued his own historical series, the badly titled “Forgotten Blue”, about Michigan greats that nobody has forgotten. The latest was mono-paw pitcher Jim Abbott. Fellow pitching great Jennie Ritter was before that. Rudy Tomjanovich was before that. Who’s that?

And finally on Wisconsin week we were treated to a trip down Badger Memory Lane, which was quite pleasant thankyouverymuch until 2005 ruined everything.

EARLY SPEIGHT vs EARLY RUDOCK

Blue Indy earned undying MGoRespect for coming up with a statistical comparison of Speight’s first half versus Rudock’s last year. Remember when we thought Rudock was miserable, and that put a hard cap on how good the year could go? It’d be nice to have some way to compare those. I thought to take Indy’s stats and chart against opponent pass defense:

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Good pass defenses are on the left

The big differences came early: even if UCF ends up much worse than they look to S&P+ right now, that game and the Hawaii one were more efficient than any Speight played in the first half of last year. Rudock got two really bad pass defenses and was middling; Speight blew his away. The rest are non-opponent-dependent meh performances.

LOOKALIKES:

I’ve been waiting for this series to come up with some good ones before throwing them all out there.

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Unfortunately Rutgers players mostly look like Rutgers, all Wisconsin players look the same, and Penn State players…we’re not going there.

REDSHIRTS REMAINING: Redshirt tracker is down to Peters, Walker, Spanellis, Ron Johnson, and Quinn Nordin. Keep your eyes out going forward for some of the burned shirts who might yet get a medshirt if they didn’t see the field against Penn State or after. Candidates include Davis, Nate Johnson, Eubanks, Dwumfour, Uche, Kemp, Gil, and Mbem-Bosse.

ETC. This might be a good future roundtable or a sad one. Softball ain’t played nobody.

Your Moment of Zen:

Courtesy of Red Lee.

Comments

Drbogue

October 14th, 2016 at 6:31 PM ^

Why do people care about the "estimated wins" stat? It just seems stupid. I think anyone who has watched college football can give you a good idea of how Michigan will do until the game. No metric in the world is going to tell you who wins The Game. I guess it's good for establishing a point spread but it seems like it's a stat that is brought out to an inordinate degree on this blog.

AZBlue

October 14th, 2016 at 7:37 PM ^

Maybe because this is a very analytics based blog and this is a way to try to understand the relative strength of teams? Yes it is more of a "confirmation" of where we feel Michigan is, but it also gives some insight into how the other teams out there rank. I.e. The S&P+ show M and OSU very close with M being better but less so than the home field bump provides.

Of course numbers are sometimes wrong (see Iowa 2015) but eventually things come around to the numbers (see Iowa 2016).

sikety

October 14th, 2016 at 8:29 PM ^

Love that Alan Branch picture.  I was at that game 10 years ago, also the same night this happened:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbGXgwHE_YA

Everyone in the student section was trying to get updates on the game, someone was talking to another person on the phone when the walk off happened and announced that Ordonez hit the walk-off and we were going to the World Series.  Definitly the best fall sports season I have experianced in my life, too bad it ended poorly for the Tigers and Michigan.

 

 

Mgodiscgolfer

October 16th, 2016 at 4:50 PM ^

Check out the guy on the left who I'm sure, is at or near the top of his class. Obviously one of the finest Rutgers has to offer. I can tell by the way he is cleverly giving the photographer the "finger" while making it look like he is scratching his face, it is so subtle that I almost didn't catch it. About as subtle as a Staee fan after beating Michigan.

The students in that pic look like they have just found out the combined point totals of the OSU and Michigan games. It's a good thing Ohio State is one of their allies and not a sworn enemy rival like UM. I guess it could have somehow been worse I'm just not sure how. .