Dear Diary Cites Experience

Submitted by Seth on August 14th, 2011 at 8:43 PM


Hypothetical activities by a 67-year-old Jimi Hendrix if he were still alive | Lies, Deceit, & Stuff

Dear Diary,

I spent most of today trying to play with this diary by airvipermb, which spent some time yesterday on the front page before I knocked it back. For those who don't remember the Jimi-headed versions from last year, the OP did a tremendous job of going through Big Ten rosters and putting down how many upperclassmen each team was projected to play as starters and on the two-deep. What this doesn't do is provide any predictive information.

For that reason this isn't front page material. Not yet at least. But I'd like to help it get there.

First, upperclassman starters in 2011, in table format. I changed it to percent; starter % of upperclassmen is out of 11, two-deep is % of upperclassmen out 22. Because I'm pretty sure this is how airvipermb did it (likely reasoning: too hard to find data otherwise) a redshirt sophomore is an underclassman while a true junior is an upperclassman.* Your most experienced Big Ten two-deeps next year (UPDATE: added deltas):

Team '11 Starters Delta '11 Two-Deep Delta
Nebraska 90.91% +4 77.27% +5
Ohio State 90.91% +1 77.27% +6
Northwestern 100.00% +1 72.73% +1
Indiana 63.64% -1 68.18% +1
Penn State 100.00% +1 63.64% +2
Illinois 81.82% +2 63.64% +2
Iowa 72.73% -2 63.64% -4
Purdue 72.73% +1 59.09% +5
Minnesota 90.91% +1 54.55% -2
Michigan State 54.55% +1 54.55% +4
Wisconsin 72.73% -2 50.00% -1
Michigan 63.64% +1 50.00% +3

The author was optimistic but this says Michigan's defense is still the youngest in the conference excepting younger siblings. Does that matter? The O.P. suggests it does; the data say NSFMF.

Here's how this all looked last year:

Team 2010 DFEI %ile 2010 Yds/G 2010 Starter% 2010 Two-Deep%
Ohio State 92.3% 262.2 81.82% 50.00%
Nebraska 88.3% 306.8 54.55% 54.55%
Iowa 77.3% 332.1 90.91% 81.82%
Illinois 75.4% 351.3 63.64% 54.55%
Michigan State 67.4% 353.8 45.45% 36.36%
Wisconsin 66.1% 321.8 90.91% 54.55%
Purdue 57.5% 369.0 63.64% 36.36%
Penn State 55.7% 346.8 90.91% 54.55%
Indiana 34.3% 410.2 72.73% 63.64%
Minnesota 34.0% 392.2 81.82% 63.64%
Northwestern 31.8% 426.2 90.91% 68.18%
Michigan 23.5% 450.8 54.55% 36.36%

I showed the Yards per game because that's the sorting metric the author used. I'm gonna talk DFEI from here on since I'm an advanced stats fan but if you're not such, mentally upgrade Penn State and Wisconsin for hard-nosed grind-it-out game planning, and downgrade Illinois, Indiana and Purdue for "not getting it." It doesn't matter because these numbers are all over the place:


No. Correlation.

HOWEVA, if you do the same thing on pure recruiting the results are also bouncy. Here's 4- and 5-stars recruited by Big Ten teams from '06 to '08, out of 22 spots available:


Actually this is pretty un-bouncy except Nebraska and Iowa outperformed by a lot and Penn State and Michigan (infinite ARGH!!!) underperformed. Iowa is our super-duper experienced two-deep so maybe that explains them and Michigan's young roster explains Michigan. But then what's Penn State's problem? This study doesn't say. Future study: I would love it if we could get a spreadsheet of all of the Big Ten players on the 1- and 2-deep.


* Let's use Nebraska 2010 as an example for how this can throw us off. You appropriately call them a great defense and rank them second to Ohio State, which I think we can concur on. Here's Nebraska's defense as of this date last year. I count six upperclassman starters there. However Cam Merideth, Baker Steinkuhler, Sean Fisher, Will Compton and P.J. Smith are all from the Class of 2008, i.e. they're redshirt sophomores. Also from that class: Alfonzo Dennard, counted as a junior. See the problem? You've got returning starters three years removed from high school counted the same as Courtney Avery (a true freshman who was a QB in H.S.) last year, despite there being vast difference between their respective expectations of experience-based contribution.


Still Raining, Still Dreaming


Jimi eat galaxy.

Until a few hours ago, it looked like the SEC was ready to swallow up one of the last quasi-worthwhile bits of the Big XII that doesn't have its own channel. This of course sparked another round of speculating how many galaxies the Big Ten must own to keep up, from oakapple and justingoblue. This being the Big Ten, it's not who would come (except Notre Dame) so much as who can fit the academic criteria without being a.) Ivy League, or b.) Athletically challenged.

Justin took it from an academic expenditure perspective, which is an interesting way to get around having to use academic rankings like U.S. News & World Report's, and avoids the weirdness from endowments-based ranking. The candidates are Duke, UNC, Virginia, V-Tech, Pitt, Rutgers, Cuse, Mizzou and Notre Dame, though all but Duke, UNC and Pitt would be near-bottom in the conference at research spending.

For the wargames route, consult oakapple, who took a more pragmatic, dominos (NTD's) effect approach. After six previous dominos it's the Big Ten's turn and…

VII. What Does the Big Ten Do?

The short answer, at least for now, is: probably nothing. The Big Ten is already in a position of strength. It has no particular need to expand. There are only two institutions that could improve the Big Ten’s current product: Texas and Notre Dame. The Irish have chosen repeatedly to remain independent, and for reasons noted above, the Longhorns are more likely to choose the Pac-12.

Galactic plans are on hold until such time as the Pac 487 annexes China and the Big East is trying to teach the French to play football, or Zoltan demands such, whichever happens first.


Scoreboard! Thanks to M-Wolverine at Fan Day, and M-Wolverine's camera.


EGD had some thoughts for a Top 10 (which means 11 not 12) other ideas for Jerel Worthy tattoos. I'm surprised nobody suggested just getting a chip drawn on his shoulder. I'm also surprised it wasn't the 2008 scoreboard, because that's exactly what my MSU friends/family still troll me with (the reminder of 2008 is what stings). Anyway these are good but I want pics! Those of you with Photoshop/GiMP, or who are Samara Pearlstein, get on this!

And THE_KNOWLEDGE is apparently using up the last miles on his current time machine lease to predict the standout of the 2012 class will be… well I can't ruin it.



August 14th, 2011 at 9:13 PM ^

Not that I have a lot to add. But I am reading. The Diary content was worried to be fading, but has seemingly caught back up, along with some really good board content. Big change from double post Saturday.