Dear Diary is a Cinderella Story

Submitted by Seth on October 4th, 2013 at 10:56 AM

wallpaper

My quick submission in the thread asking for backgrounds. jonvalk stepped up.

I think I made this same chart in 2008 #1: Gulo Gulo Luscus is joining Off-Tackle Empire and other folk in looking back at recruiting and OL development time to explain why the problems. His method is to look at average age of the starters versus the performance of the unit as measured by YPA/RPI. Cool chart:

scatterplot

If you can't find Michigan it's because we're buried under the Gophers. TSS's response should be part of the read.

Ron Utah has the beginnings of his own UFR database. With Brian's permission I'll make mine available to anyone who asks for it—don't want to host it online but I'm willing to share copies if you say what you're going to do with it. Only concern there is those numbers are very much in context and the n's are quite small so it's easy to abuse. Anyway, Ron's thing tracked performance of different formations in the UConn game. Tiny sample sizes are going to hide most good info but we can whittle that down personnel instead of formation, since these two:

I-form TwinsShotgun 2 Back twins

…have more in common with each other than either has with this:

Shotgun 4-wide

. By personnel:

Type Runs Rush YPA Passes Pass YPA Total YPA Pass%
Empty TE (1TE, 4WR) 0 - 1 6.0 6.0 100.0%
4-Wide 0 - 5 6.8 6.8 100.0%
3-Wide 12 8.3 16 4.7 6.2 57.1%
Two TE 11 4.5 8 0.1 2.7 42.1%
Two Backs 5 2.2 2 1.0 1.9 28.6%
Big (2RB, 2TE) 4 -1.3 1 12.0 1.4 20.0%
Goal Line (2RB, 3TE*) 3 6.7 0 - 6.7 0.0%
Total 35 5.0 33 3.9 4.5 48.5%

* Michigan brings in an OT (Magnuson) instead of a third tight end

Still too small a sample size . I'll check in the next bye week and see what these look like when we're not just zooming in on Gardner's terrible awful no good very bad day. The ratios look normal but given the relative paucity of plays with a fullback (and many of those probably in short situations) it's hard to judge those at all.

Goal line—6.7 YPA—we must be manballius!—looks great because of two Gardner boot-to-runs (it would be epically higher if he'd seen Funchess wide open downfield on one of them), but the other play from that formation was a near-crippling fumble-defensive TD.

On the other hand: 12 rushes for 8.3 YPA from three-wide is not a red herring: that is Gardner's rushing ability and the fact that Michigan is far better at getting linebackers out of the box by making them split out with a slot receiver than having a tight end forcibly remove him. Note when it counted on that late 4th and 2 they went with a 3-wide formation and let Gardner pick his spot.

Our Demographic. I made this to explain our numbers versus other media outlets to a potential advertiser:

mgodemographic

She's probably on the phone with WTKA now.

[Jump.]

I Went to Someplace 30 Minutes Out of Storrs and All I Got Was This Dumb Football Game, wherein Michigan in Maryland went to Connecticut and shared his game experience.

Intro to Zone Blocking and Modern Play Design Practices. Not Gene Simmons wants to make athletics a major then basically describes Kinesiology. The problem with turning football studies into credit hours is football players would suddenly have no other major available to them because all the football majors have limitless hours to practice, and there aren't enough jobs in football for every DI football player.

Etc. Turnover analysis is Michigan needs to stop turning over the dag-nang ball and they'll be 10-2. Purdue's offense can't get worse [moves starting quarterback to safety and inserts freshman] never mind. LSA looks at the AP "hater index"—cool name for someone I didn't quite understand. MGoBlog going on the road. Free program. THE_KNOWLEDGE is giving away titles that don't come with free shirts. Jug genie didn't say I couldn't wish for recruits /Peppers /Hand /Campbell /corked.

Best of the Board

YOUR FIRST JUG GAMElittle Brown Jug 01

I was one of a series of people who met this rivalry from the perspective of the 1990s blowouts. Gordon Berenson's description matches the general feeling:

It was so non-descript that I cannot remember any of the game and had to look it up on wikipedia just to make sure we did indeed play that year. Sounds like every other Minnesota game ever played

Except he went to 2006, which was at Minnesota so he probably forgot the year too unless he's in Minnesota. Because 2005 was THAT, and 2007 was the Mallett experience we were losing by 10 until well into the 2nd quarter.

BRYANT REPRIMER

Blazefire went back to look at Chris Bryant as a recruit because we've heard little about him since. Yes I absolutely showed this thread to that advertiser.

CAGERS IN THE CROWD

ClearEyesFullHart tracked down the Michigan basketball players in various pro leagues as NBA etc. gets underway.

ETC. I couldn't make it to the 9/30 Kickstarter party for Jon Falk but here's the thread from that. Wolverine State Brewing (who provided the yummy beer for our Marlin Jackson event) is having a tailgate for the IU game where you can drink beer for charity:

Arbor_Tailgate_WEB

In case you needed an excuse to drink their beer.

Your Moment of Zen:

That other rivalry.

Comments

Zone Left

October 4th, 2013 at 11:55 AM ^

Venn diagrams are awesome, but you probably need to put MGoBlog in the center. If you don't think there's a huge contingent demanding immediate fixes by, say, inserting Bryant into the lineup, then you aren't following the threads closely.

We like to analyze AND complain here. Also kill dead horses.

Ron Utah

October 4th, 2013 at 12:12 PM ^

While it's definitely worth charting personnel too, any coach/coordinator will tell you that the shotgun is VASTLY different from an under center play.  There are lots and lots of reasons for this, but the biggest one in the modern game is the threat of the QB to run from the shotgun is much higher; the QB is starting where a RB would start a play.

That also has huge implications for the backs: where and how they are receiving the football, their running paths, blocking, etc.

The Michigan offense is no exception.  In fact, with DG's running ability, it may be an even more pronounced difference than with some other offenses (ie, Notre Dame)

I completely agree that personnel and alignment are also important, and worth tracking.  I also agree that the I-form twins and the Shotgun twins have some similarities.  But I think there is a profound difference between the shotgun formations Michigan runs and their under center formations, and the play selection from each bears that out.