Crazy Confusing Michigan Postseason Guide

Submitted by Seth on December 1st, 2016 at 10:04 AM

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So the Playoff Committee put Michigan 5th, where the top four get a chance at a national championship and the top(-ish) 12 play in more prestigious bowls in and around New Year’s. Getting into the playoffs requires some help and sympathy. It’s good that two teams above us have a chance to lose, potentially dropping them back. It’s good that we beat teams 6, 7, and 8. It’s bad that two of those could be conference champions, including our own conference.

So where are we going? Probably the Orange, but if you’d like more detail here’s everything I could divine about Michigan’s potential destinations.

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What are the Rules?

  1. The Playoff Committee will decide on 4 teams to compete in the playoff. This year’s playoff games are the Fiesta and Peach Bowls.
  2. New Years Six obligations are filled in. Unless they’re in the above the B1G and Pac12 Championship Game winners play in the Rose Bowl, the SEC and Big XII winners play in the Sugar, the ACC winner plays in the Orange, and one “Group of Five” (Western Michigan most likely) team gets a spot somewhere between the Rose, Orange, Cotton and Sugar Bowls.
  3. [UPDATED, h/t user Alton] Bowl contracts are filled in, specifically the Rose Bowl gets a Big Ten and Pac Ten team, and the Sugar Bowl gets an SEC and Big XII team, assigned by the committee.
  4. At-large teams are filled in, with contracts, rematches, distance, and “most compelling matchups” in mind. For example the Orange Bowl gets first crack at a Big Ten or SEC #2. Unofficially, conference affiliations matter somewhat, e.g. the Rose Bowl would take a Pac#2/B1G#2 matchup and FSU or Louisville would be projected to the Orange.
  5. Old bowl process takes hold once the New Year’s Six are figured out.

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Where’s Michigan in the Playoff Race?

Behind: Alabama regardless, Ohio State, Washington if they win, Clemson if they win.

Worried about getting passed by: Wisconsin or Penn State if they win, Colorado if they win.

Probably not getting passed by: Oklahoma or Oklahoma State as Big XII champ. Florida as SEC Champ. VT as ACC Champ. Washington or Clemson if they lose. Loser of the Big Ten Championship Game. USC, FSU, Louisville, Auburn, Western Michigan, Navy.

CFP-LogoThey’re saying there’s a chance:

With Michigan the 5th team right now however this seems incorrect, particularly in light of Kirby Hocutt saying the committee needed two hours to decide to put Washington over Michigan for the 4th spot. The actual distinction matters little since a conference championship win for Washington would overcome whatever slim margin Michigan is ahead by at the moment.

That appears to put Michigan’s chances entirely dependent on one or two schools above them losing a conference championship game, then riding a head-to-head victory over a conference champ into the top four.

Even a loss to Florida probably doesn’t drop Alabama out of the Top 4, and Ohio State is obviously in before we are. The best, but hardly only shot of Michigan moving up is Colorado beating Washington (a 45% shot according to Bill C.) and Michigan (over the B1G CG winner) taking the Pac 12’s spot. If Virginia Tech upsets Clemson (20%), this also opens the door for Michigan. If both happen, Michigan still needs a head-to-head win to matter more than a B1G or P12 championship.

How the committee rates winning your conference championship game versus head-to-head is a mystery. They said they don’t consider margin of victory, so blowing out Penn State is probably seen the same as a one-score victory over Wisconsin, let alone two last-play losses on the road.

My guess is they’ll let the de jure Big Ten Champion jump definitely-not-Big Ten Champion Michigan, but not Ohio State. Michigan could end up above Colorado if both Washington and Clemson lose, but that’s a scenario with three Big Ten teams in the playoffs. That may be correct, but the committee created to avoid another LSU-Alabama rematch that everybody hates would probably take the B1G and Pac champs and leave Michigan out.

Likelihood of it: 10 percent.

[After THE JUMP: some NY6 destinations and worst case scenario]

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Can Michigan Get to the Rose Bowl?

This one is tricky but doable. Because the Rose Bowl is obligated to take the B1G CG winner if they’re not in the four, Michigan’s path to Pasadena requires the B1G CG winner to make the playoffs. I’m not worried about the B1G CG loser since 2-loss Michigan > 3-loss team they already beat.

Getting one of them into the playoffs is the hard part. Leaping us is likely but I don’t think Penn State or Wisconsin are strong enough to pass any of the Top 4 without help (if they scoot PSU ahead of OSU that just puts the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl) so again we’re rooting for Colorado to beat Washington or Clemson to lose to Virginia Tech.

A VT upset over Clemson would open a spot in the Top 4 for the B1G Champion without affecting the Pac 12—if Colorado wins too and takes Washington’s spot in the playoff, that would leave both Rose Bowl seats open and Michigan likely to grab one.

Colorado beating Washington could create its own problems. One: Colorado could swap spots with Washington, leaving the B1G champ in the Rose Bowl. Two: since one of the committee’s stated goals is to avoid regular season rematches, Colorado winning an auto-bid to the Rose Bowl could push Michigan out of it, though in that case it’ll likely be into the playoffs.

There’s another outside scenario where Washington wins but gets passed by the B1G CG winner. That would almost certainly put Michigan and Washington in the Rose Bowl, with a CFP field of OSU-Clemson-Bama-B1G Champ. But I doubt the 1-loss Huskies would drop behind a 2-loss Big Ten champ when 1-loss Ohio State is in the playoffs. And Ohio State getting left behind doesn’t help us.

Likelihood of Rose Bowl: 20 percent.

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So Michigan is Going to the Orange Bowl?

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Here’s the most likely landing spot. If the Rose Bowl can’t (B1GCG winner doesn’t make the playoffs) or won’t (they pass us up, or Ohio State gets bumped from the playoff by the B1G and Pac Champs) take Michigan, the committee will then place the remaining conference champs in New Year’s Six slots, and fill in the last spots in the New Year’s Six behind them. The Orange Bowl, which also needs to fill a small number of Big Ten appearances, would be the more likely destination for Michigan in most scenarios. That Orange Bowl contract with the Big Ten supersedes the Cotton Bowl

Likelihood of Orange Bowl: 70 percent.

Could It Be the Cotton?

Doubtful given the above. This scenario involves Ohio State and the Big Ten champ getting locked out of the Playoff 4, putting Ohio State in the Orange.

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No, We’re Not Going to the Outback

HOFBowllogo_1

The Outback is in technically in play, but it’s highly unlikely. It happens if conference championships suddenly become THE thing for the playoff selection committee, and some conference champions would have to pass Michigan to shove the Wolverines out of the 12 spots for New Year’s Six or Playoff bids.

There’s a slim chance it happens. Figure Bama and OSU are ahead of Michigan no matter what. WMU or Navy (as the group of five participant), and the winners of all the conference championship games get auto-bids. So there’s at least 7/12, possibly 8/12 (if Florida beats Bama) slots already taken in the NY6.

[UPDATED] Then the Orange, Sugar and Rose Bowls need to take ACC, SEC, B12, B1G, and Pac teams. This is where trouble happens. If Florida loses to Alabama the Sugar has to take an SEC team, so we’re back to 8/12. The Rose Bowl would also need to take a Pac Ten team if Washington or Colorado is in the playoffs. Figure that draws in either Washington (if they lose the Pac CG) or 3-loss USC. 9/12. And another ACC team to the Orange Bowl.

You still have to find two teams among the following who’d be ranked ahead of Michigan to fill an at-large position:

  • 2-loss Clemson after loss in ACC CG
  • 3-loss Colorado after losing the Pac 12 CG
  • 2-loss Navy or WMU as a 2nd group of five bid
  • 3-loss Wisconsin or Penn State after loss in B1G CG
  • 3-loss Oklahoma or Oklahoma State after loss in B12 CG
  • 3-loss FSU, Louisville, Auburn, and Stanford

The disaster scenario is one where the committee decides conference championships are the THING:

  • Oklahoma State destroys Oklahoma 100-0, so impressing the committee (and so undermining Ohio State’s win over the Sooners) that Okie State joins Bama, Clemson, and Washington in the playoff four. (8 spots left)
  • Navy earns the Group of Five bid over Western Michigan (7 spots left).
  • The Big Ten champ goes to the Rose Bowl. (6 spots left)
  • Ohio State gets pushed down to the Orange Bowl. (5 spots left)
  • FSU, Auburn, West Virginia and USC draw into NY6 bowls to fill in for conference champs in those bowls. (1 spot left)
  • Committee decides undefeated Western Michigan should pass Michigan for the last at-large spot.

It would be extraordinarily cruel to have all of these teams pass Michigan. On the off chance that something like that happened, Michigan wouldn’t go to the Citrus because we just went, meaning the Outback Bowl would be it.

Comments

Seth

December 1st, 2016 at 10:46 AM ^

If the SEC or Big XII rep is in the playoffs then the Sugar can get an at-large team in there. We're talking extremely rare circumstances but it could happen:

  • SEC or Big XII champ in the playoffs
  • 3 more non-Big Ten teams in the playoffs
  • B1G Champ in the Rose Bowl
  • Another B1G team in the Orange Bowl
  • A 3rd B1G team gets an at-large bid to the Sugar

It's not too weird. Imagine a season where Bama, Clemson, Texas and USC are undefeated, Michigan went undefeated until getting upset in the B1G CG by 4-loss Wisconsin, and Ohio State's only loss was by a hail mary in Ann Arbor.

The four undefeated conference champs go to the playoffs, the de jure B1G Champ Wisconsin goes to the Rose Bowl, and then Michigan and Ohio State make different New Year's Six Bowls.

Alton

December 1st, 2016 at 11:08 AM ^

The Sugar Bowl must take an SEC team, period.  Even if the champion is in the playoffs.

The Sugar Bowl must take a Big 12 team, period.  Even if the champion is in the playoffs.

It is now exactly like the Rose Bowl in that respect--it has 2 guaranteed conference spots.  See, for example:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/8601209/sugar-bowl-new-…

"If the SEC or Big 12 champion advances to the national semifinals, each conference would then provide another team for the Sugar Bowl."

Seth

December 1st, 2016 at 12:06 PM ^

I think they made that agreement before the Playoff Committee announced how they're going to do things. The procedure now is vague but seems to only guarantee the Big 12 and SEC champions a slot in a CFP bowl:

http://www.big12sports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=204777134

 

Big 12 CFP Contract Bowl Qualifier
The Big 12 champion will earn the Conference's automatic berth for its CFP contract bowl slot. If one or more teams tie for the Big 12 championship, the Conference's tiebreaker procedure will be used to determine the Big 12 designated team. 

Additional Big 12 Teams in the CFP
If a Big 12 team(s) is rated in the top four of the CFP, it will play in one of the semifinals. This does not affect the Big 12 designee being placed in a CFP New Year's Bowl if it is not one of the top four teams. There is not a limit on the number of teams from one conference that can be placed in CFP bowls. Additional Big 12 teams may be selected for other CFP New Year's bowls based on their ranking in the final CFP Poll. 

Big 12 Bowl Partners
Once the CFP has filled its bowl slots, Big 12 bowl partners will make selections from the remaining bowl eligible teams. Following is the order of selection. A bowl may pick from any available teams when it reaches its spot in the selection order. 
Valero Alamo 
Russell Athletic 
AdvoCare V100 Texas 
AutoZone Liberty 
Cactus 
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 

In other words they're at the mercy of the CFP Committee until the Alamo Bowl.

Alton

December 1st, 2016 at 12:19 PM ^

Sorry to have to insist like this, especially to somebody whose work I respect, but you are still completely wrong about this one subject.  You have misunderstood the Big 12 release, and I can give explicit documentation that the SEC & B12 are locked into the Sugar Bowl, and the B1G & P12 are locked into the Rose Bowl--when not hosting semifinals, of course.

See, for example, page 5 from the media guide (from this year) put out by the CFP committee itself:

http://d30ratpzqzalg7.cloudfront.net/CD-drupal-cfp-PROD/s3fs-public/wp-…

"Both participants in the Orange, Rose and Sugar Bowls are contracted outside the playoff arrangement (Big Ten and Pac-12 to Rose Bowl; SEC and Big 12 to Sugar Bowl; ACC to Orange Bowl against the highest ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame). If a conference champion qualifies for the playoff, then the bowl will choose a replacement from that conference." (emphasis added).

That's pretty clear, isn't it?

Alton

December 1st, 2016 at 4:28 PM ^

Obviously the Sugar bowl doesn't want an 8-4 Auburn team; they would probably rather have the BTCG loser, or Colorado, or Louisville.  But they can't take any of those teams.

What the Sugar Bowl will get is the Oklahoma/Oklahoma State winner (because B12 champion), plus Florida (if they beat Alabama) or Auburn (if not).

Alton

December 2nd, 2016 at 9:22 AM ^

Worst case scenario has

* Ohio State in the playoff still (no way they drop out).

* Wisconsin-Penn State winner out of the playoff, but in the Rose Bowl.

* Now the Orange Bowl has to pick a Big Ten or SEC team.  There is absolutely no non-playoff SEC team that the Orange Bowl would take over Michigan.  You could say "what about Florida?  They would sell a lot of tickets."  But Florida would be in the Sugar Bowl if they win, and would be 8-4 if they lose, and the likely ACC team is Florida State, and why would they want a rematch?  So it's a Big Ten team.  Either Michigan or the BTCG loser, in this scenario.  I don't see any scenario where the Orange Bowl would take the BTCG loser over a Michigan team that's in the headlines more than anybody else in the nation, and gets the best TV ratings anywhere.

* Even if the Orange Bowl falls through, the Cotton Bowl would take Michigan in a heartbeat.

I see no way in the world Michigan fails to get a NY6 bowl.  My guess for the probabilities:  Orange 60%, Rose 30%, Peach 7%, Fiesta 2%, Cotton 1%.
 

The Maizer

December 2nd, 2016 at 9:28 AM ^

I wasn't really asking if it was possible, just more possible than Seth's original proposition. The answer is still no, however; the NY6 bowls will either take Florida or Auburn, but not both. So no change to how many teams would have to pass us for us to fall to the Outback.

Seth

December 2nd, 2016 at 1:23 PM ^

It does, because if the ACC, SEC, Pac12 and/or Big12 champs make the 4-team playoff this year, there are going to be 2 teams from those conferences in NY6 bowls. We already know there will be at least 2 Big Ten teams (B1G CG winner and OSU).

Simplified version of what I wrote in the article:

  • 12 spots in NY6 bowls
  • Up to 4 conferences guaranteed 2 spots by having one team in the playoffs. (so max 8 teams that aren't Big Ten teams have berths)
  • Group of Five guaranteed one spot. (9/12 teams)
  • Two non-playoff B1G teams could be ahead of Michigan in the pecking order (B1G CG winner and OSU) (11/12 teams)

So in a nightmare scenario there could be up to 11 teams that get spots before Michigan can even be considered as an at-large. So all it would take from there is one at-large team passing Michigan. The most likely candidates would be USC or whichever Group of Five team (Navy or WMich) doesn't get the Group of Five auto-bid.

This would require the Big XII champ getting into the playoff ahead of Ohio State and the B1G champ. Ohio State getting booted from the playoffs would put the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl if the B1G CG winner is in the playoffs, or bump them down to the Orange if the B1G champ doesn't make the playoffs.

If the Big XII doesn't get a playoff spot they're likely to have just one team in the NY6 (their champ), creating another at-large spot. Ditto the Pac 12 (e.g. if Colorado wins tonight and doesn't get a playoff bid) and the ACC (e.g. if Clemson loses tomorrow to VT).

So Michigan's route to each bowl:

  • Playoffs: Washington and/or Clemson loses, head-to-head matters more than conference championships in comps with Wis/PSU and/or Colorado.
  • Rose: Ohio State and B1G CB winner both make the playoffs but Michigan doesn't.
  • Orange: Just one of Ohio State and B1G CG winner make the playoffs.
  • Outback: Wholefuckery

Alton

December 2nd, 2016 at 3:13 PM ^

Okay, but remember that the Orange must take a Big Ten or an SEC team (or Notre Dame).

So even if only OSU makes the playoffs, and the BTCG winner goes to the Rose, the Orange would have to choose among (1) Michigan, (2) BTCG loser, (3) whichever of Auburn or Florida that does not get picked by the Sugar Bowl.  And if Florida State is the ACC Orange Bowl team, they won't choose a rematch with Florida for their game.

And add the fact that the Big Ten must be given at least 3 of the next 7 "at large" spots in the Orange Bowl, and the SEC at least 2 of the next 7, there will be a bias towards taking the B1G team anyway.

WhoopinStick

December 1st, 2016 at 10:33 AM ^

I don't see any way that the CFP takes three teams from the Big Ten.  If both Washington and Clemson lose who will make the CFP?  Since I don't think they will put in 3 Big Tem teams would they put in Colorado giving weight to them being conference champ?  If they do that, wouldn't they then have to give extra weight to however is the Big Ten champ and put them in?  This would leave Michigan out.  

Is it possible that our best chance for getting in is if Washington or Clemson lose, but not both?  

PapabearBlue

December 1st, 2016 at 10:39 AM ^

You're overthinking it. There is ltierally no reason that they wouldn't put 3 B1G teams in if the system works at all like it should. The 4 best teams go, doesnt matter what conference they come from. Doesn't matter championship games they've played. If team x wins their conference championship but is way worse than team Y who doesnt go to one then team x shouldn't be there and I'm sure they know this.

There are too many teams, not enough games, and too much inconsistency to let things like conference championships and what-nots have all that much weight. It has to be an eye test thing.

His Dudeness

December 1st, 2016 at 10:35 AM ^

We lost two games, both away, by a combined 4 points.

Unreal how close we are to being a fucking lock.

It's amazing how far we are away from making it in given how good we really are.

This sucks.

 

VintageBlue

December 1st, 2016 at 10:39 AM ^

Part of me wants Clemson and Washington to win their games so I don't have be hyper annoyed if a team we beat by 3 scores gets into the playoffs with the same number of losses. While I also 'get it' because conference championships should count for something and we lost to damn Iowa.

Another part of me realizes that we would beat the #2 team in the country 7 out of 10 times on a neutral field and WHY U NO CALL DPI!!

In the end, if we get in, we've earned it.  If we don't, we probably earned that too and we'll get to say "I told you so" after Bama nukes #4 and we nuke whoever the hell we draw in the Orange.

 

gmoney41

December 1st, 2016 at 11:23 AM ^

I really don't care about what's fair or not.  How many times have we gotten the shaft for one reason or another.  Everyone who has watched a ton of football this season knows the big ten championship is really the battle for 3rd best team in the conference.  It's time we get a break.  I'll be chearing for Colorado big time.  I do agree that either way we look at it, we have earned whatever we get, but I think it's time for us to get a break.  I'm tired of us being on the back end of controversy.

Yeoman

December 1st, 2016 at 10:42 AM ^

The committee says they don't consider margin of victory because they don't want to encourage teams to run up the score. But they're quite aware of which games were competitive and which ones weren't. If OSU had beaten Michigan by 50 last week it wouldn't have taken two hours to decide which order to place Washington and Michigan.

Blue in PA

December 1st, 2016 at 10:47 AM ^

Making it an 8 team playoff just makes so much sense..... which is why it'll only take another decade for it to happen.

The #7 or #8 team in the country missing out by being ranked #9 is a hell of a lot easier to take than the #4 team in the country missing out by being ranked #5.

 

GO BUFFS GO!

ArthGuinness

December 1st, 2016 at 10:51 AM ^

If you lose two games, you simply can't complain about not getting in the playoff. And yes, I mean that even if there are other two-loss teams that get in that you think you're better than.

Furthermore, Bo was all about winning the Big Ten first, and we failed to do that.

tomer

December 1st, 2016 at 3:34 PM ^

I hate the argument that Bo was about the Big Ten first. Of course he was. During his time there was no playoff committee. Hell, there weren't even very many bowl games. He focused on the Big Ten because that was all HE could focus on. If you don't think he would be lobbying for his team to make the playoffs you're fooling yourself. 

Swazi

December 1st, 2016 at 11:01 AM ^

It's pretty simple really. If Penn State wins and either of Washington or Clemson lose, Michigan will go.

I think they'll let Wisconsin in, for some reason or another.

Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

UMProud

December 1st, 2016 at 11:02 AM ^

Man oh man I want to get to the CFP to rematch the fucknuts. I do not even care about the NC at this point I only want to see them ruined and humiliated on neutral ground with no MVP refs tilting the field

lhglrkwg

December 1st, 2016 at 12:05 PM ^

Well if we do get in it's almost certain that if we play them it'll be for the title, right? No way does the committee put us at 2 & 3 so everyone can watch (or not watch rather) the teams literally replay their previous game

Just for seeding purposes, Michigan will be 4 if we get in (since OSU will be 2 or 3). They won't do a rematch. Even if Washington and Clemson lose, they'll let Colorado or OU pass us to get the matchups ok

Yeoman

December 1st, 2016 at 2:08 PM ^

But I can imagine them making an exception for a replay of a rivalry game that went double OT. They could say something like "yes, we try to avoid rematches, but given the head to head result we couldn't in good conscience move Colorado above Michigan."

They'll have a sense of good theater; they won't go out of their way to avoid it.

And I think you're mistaken if you think that game wouldn't be a TV draw.

smwilliams

December 1st, 2016 at 11:03 AM ^

I think Seth's logic is pretty spot on. The big unknown is whether the committee weighs H2H or Conf. Championships more. I've maintained that Penn State winning is worse than Wisconsin winning because PSU would have the H2H win over Ohio State and how do you leave out a team with wins over OSU, Wisconsin and two losses to Top 25 wins and who won their conference and beat a team that's in the playoff in favor of one H2H result. 

That said, the committee has said over and over again that if resumes are comparable that H2H is a determining factor.

There is a shot and I'm sure last year's Alabama-MSU game will weigh heavily on the minds of the committee.

One thing that's been sort of unspoken is that after ratings for the NYE semifinals were way down last year, there may be an inclination to include a more popular team with a well-known HC and several high profile potential NFL Draft Picks. I'm not say that SHOULD be a factor, just that the committee and ESPN may prefer an Alabama-Michigan semifinal over an Alabama-Wisconsin/PSU semifinal. And if there's an argument to be made, the committee can justify it by saying Michigan beat both teams. 

That said, if Clemson and Washington win, there is zero chance Michigan magically jumps either of those teams without playing. 

Root for:

- Colorado over Washington (keeps Michigan's win over the Buffs looking pretty stellar)

- An ugly, close game between Penn State and Wisconsin. Something like 10-7 with multiple turnovers should do the trick. 

People keep referencing 2014 when Ohio State jumped both Baylor and TCU who didn't play. Ohio State won that game 59-0 and the way it looked was definitely a factor in why they made it. 

lhglrkwg

December 1st, 2016 at 12:30 PM ^

what a match up that would be for TV. I can already hear the commercials "THE FIRST MATCHUP OF TWO OF THE BEST COACHES: HARBAUGH AND SABAN...THE TWO BEST DEFENSES IN THE NATION". ESPN knows Bama vs Wisconsin or Penn State isn't nearly as compelling, it's just a matter of what the committee wants.

Surely the committee also knows that of those 3 teams, Michigan is clearly the team most likely to put up a fight vs Alabama. That alone is why I don't think Penn State will make it. Everyone knows that game will end 50-10 Alabama. Then all of a sudden you have a 2nd consecutive year where the 1-4 game was a laugher and casual observers stop watching that semi. If TV ratings hold any value, that is a boost to us

rederik

December 1st, 2016 at 11:04 AM ^

IF Colorado beats Washington, I think this committee puts us in over the B1G champ. Which will be very controversial... until we beat Alabama. And then win a revenge game over OSU. Then the controversy will be forgotten, just like it was when Urban's Florida team jumped its way into the 06 BCS and proved they belonged by beating OSU. We are a very hungry team eager to prove we're among the best, and I think our SoS and eye test matter more to the committee than Seth is giving credit for.

Catchafire

December 1st, 2016 at 11:07 AM ^

Would be nice to have the stars align for Michigan (it is very rare)...

 

Given that, I wouldn't get the hopes up.  What I do like is that there is a chance and I couldn't ask for more.

 

What I don't like is that championship games don't really count for much (unless it is OSU...).  OSU jumped better qualified teams simply because they trounced UW 49-0.  Things only seem to matter when OSU is involved...

gmoney41

December 1st, 2016 at 11:15 AM ^

I think the comittee is making complete sense in their reasoning in regards to our chances.  The main thing they don't want to see is a repeat of last year with crappy semifinal games.  They are using the eye test, and seeing that Michigan is clearly one of the 4 best teams out there, and if the records were the same, we would be ahead of Washington comfortably.  What I don't understand is why Seth and Brian are so down on our chances, because I think if Colorado wins, we are in, simple as that.  No need to overthink it.  For all of the bullshit we have had to deal with, the heartbreaking losses, the screw jobs to Bo and 2006, it's about time we get some gifts ourselves.  Cosmic justice I say.

KTisClutch

December 1st, 2016 at 11:17 AM ^

Some people are saying if Washington or Clemson loses, we are in. Some people think we don't have much of a chance because we aren't going to win the conference (Brian is included in this, kind of Seth since he only put 10% chance). 

 

I think that we need one other loss in addition to Washington or Clemson, and that is Wisconsin. I think there is a chance Wisconsin jumps us upon beating Penn State, but I do not think there is a chance that the committee will put Penn State in over us as the comittee chair said that Ohio State and Penn State were not even close. So Penn State winning would help our chances

gmoney41

December 1st, 2016 at 11:28 AM ^

Just look at the Lsu Alabama game.  Our defense is better than LSU's and our offense is way more dynamic than LSU's.  I think the comittee knows that a Michigan Alabama game may be the best matchup of all of the teams from 4-8.  The comittee wants ratings, Michigan Alabama will be a ratings bonanza.  What they don't want is people tuning out at halftime.