CBS Reporting Trey Burke To NBA [Disputed] Comment Count

Brian

henri-the-otter-of-ennu

It's been a long time, Henri, the otter of ennui. I hate you.

FFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUU

Trey Burke is leaving Michigan after just one season.

The Wolverines point guard, according to sources, is expected to forgo his remaining three years of eligibility and declare for the NBA.

Article also says Michigan's bringing Spike Albrecht in Thursday. You have permission to panic.

UPDATE: Nick Baumgardner pinged Burke's dad and got this in a text:

Benji Burke tells AnnArbor.com that "Trey has not declared"

I'll be in the bomb shelter.

UPDATE II: Burke's father also has a twitter account:

Trey Burke has not declared for the NBA draft. He is still enrolled at the University of Michigan.

UPDATE III: I have an unconfirmed email from a guy who isn't established with me stating that Burke already has his evaluation, that it's 20-35, and is gone. He's got enough of an online presence that I can confirm he's an alum with a plausible route to that information, but again: unconfirmed, not established. Given the way the wind is blowing I don't doubt it.

Comments

chitownblue2

April 4th, 2012 at 4:37 PM ^

If the thing stopping him from having a good NBA draft grade is size, and he wants to be a professional basketball player (he does), what motivation does he have to stay in college? College won't make him taller. He might as well go make money now.

Mhpangr

April 4th, 2012 at 4:51 PM ^

The goal is to play for a NBA team, not a southeast Asia or Euro team.  

The money differences between the 2 are astronomical.  

The NCAA tournament has thousands of times the amount of exposure as any professional game abroad combined.

I think he would prefer to live in the US for 1 more year, make 1st round money, and remain in the US to play in the NBA where he can possibly win a championship.

 

chitownblue2

April 4th, 2012 at 5:01 PM ^

"The goal is to play for a NBA team, not a southeast Asia or Euro team."

Have you spoken to him? I don't know what his goal is. Regardless, he will almost assuredly be drafted, and be on an NBA roster this year.

"I think he would prefer to live in the US for 1 more year, make 1st round money, and remain in the US to play in the NBA where he can possibly win a championship."

Well, then you're clearly wrong, because either:

a) He will be a first rounder

or

b) He would not prefer to wait and be a first-rounder (I guarantee you he know more about his draft prospects than you do)

or

c) He feels like his height is a prohibitor from him EVER being a first rounder, so he may as well go now

or

d) He figures that regardless of where he is drafted, if he's good enough, he will play. This is almost assuredly true.

Further, your comment was that "it's not much money unless he's a first rounder". Making over six figures is, to most people, a pretty solid amount of money. Is it Lebron money? No.

ForeverVoyaging

April 4th, 2012 at 5:13 PM ^

This is so wrong on so many levels.

1) He has absolutely no guarantee of being drafted. Late first round picks, especially with major questions about their size, have a way of dropping like stones on draft day. Also, Manny Harris,

 

2) I guaranetee he's doing the usual dumb athlete routine of listening to his hangers-on instead of a reliable source for his draft position. The general public is probably much more realistic about his draft prospects.

 

3) A monster NCAA tourney can do wonders to boost a player's resume. NBA GM's are people after all, and like everyone else they are prone to favor players who have been playing well recently. Stephen Curry anyone?

 

4) He's not even good enough to outplay Aaron Craft. What on Earth would convince him that he'd be better against a higher level of competition?

bronxblue

April 4th, 2012 at 5:25 PM ^

While I don't disagree with all that you said, I take issue with the idea that "I guarantee you he know more about his draft prospects than you do" is a fair statement.  Burke knows about his draft status based on a couple of reports (some generated by neutral third parties and some coming from interested parties like agents and scouts), but that doesn't mean the information is beyond reproach.  It's information, open to interpretation, just like the numerous reports that he's a fringe 1st/2nd rounder who should probably stay in one more year so that the logjam from last year clears out. 

My point is that we always presume these kids make the best decision based on some "secret" information nobody else knows, and yet history is littered with kids who went pro and are now out of the league (or never in it). 

marmot

April 4th, 2012 at 5:01 PM ^

I occasionally enjoy your posts, but the fact that you're so johnny-on-the-spot with this defense of Burke's obviously premature decision is pretty damning.

 

If Burke goes through with this, anyone who honestly thinks this is a smart decision needs to have their heads examined.  Burke got easily handled by many college point guards this year, but I'm sure he's going to look just fine with Derrick Rose, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Russell Westbrook, Darius Morri - whoops scratch that last one, John Wall, Steve Nash, LeBron/Wade, and virtually anyone else blowing by him.

 

If he leaves this year, he'll likely play through a rookie contract, and wind up in a lesser league in 4 years.  If he stayed another 1-2 years he'd significantly help his own development.  He must have Maverick Carter whispering in his ear...

chitownblue2

April 4th, 2012 at 5:19 PM ^

Marmot.

Do you think that 5'10" Burke is ever going to defensively handle the array of 6'4"+ guards you listed? Even after 4 years at Michigan?

Moreover, you're missing the point. Your argument, essentially, is that he will get handled by All-Stars. Fine. I'll stipulate that. Most NBA players do. Who, precisely, shuts down Lebron, Deron Williams, and Steve Nash?

Is it your claim that he can't be...Eric Maynor? CJ Watson? Mario Chalmers? Or any other of the array of fringe-starters or backups making a few million a year?

BlueVoix

April 4th, 2012 at 5:22 PM ^

I guess it comes down to this: Is it better for Burke to make a money grab now, knowing that he won't be playing in the next two to three years without a major upgrade to his defense, as well as some of his offense?  Or is it better for him to stay in college, where he might make more money later on, but will be on a larger stage (in terms of more teams seeing him, rather than just one in the D League)?  Even if he scores highly in his basketball skills, as you said below, will his entire career and earning potential really benefit by jumping early?

chitownblue2

April 4th, 2012 at 5:25 PM ^

" knowing that he won't be playing in the next two to three years without a major upgrade to his defense, as well as some of his offense"

The thing is, I don't know this is true. It might be. Most people probably saw glaring weaknesses in the games of Kenneth Faried, MarShon Brooks, Chandler Parsons, Jon Leuer, and Isaiah Thomas (the one playing now).

bronxblue

April 4th, 2012 at 5:33 PM ^

I love Burke, but he's not in the physical league of even guys like Maynor (6-3 and a good shooter), CJ Watson, and Chalmers (47% from 3 in college).  Those guys all stayed at least 3 years in college, were physically more mature than Burke, and have elements to their games that let them at least survive early on in the pros (speed and shooting).  And even the shortie in this group, Chalmers, is technically 3 inches taller than Burke (though who knows about official heights). 

So yeah, Burke leaving makes sense in the sense that he won't probably get any taller, but he's no better than Kalin Lucas and Lucas stayed 4 years before he went to Europe.  So no, it isn't assured that Burke will be making a couple million as a backup, considering he's probably be housed by the guys you listed.  He's a good PG, but right now he't not ready for the league.  Maybe he'll get there in the NBDL, but who knows. 

chitownblue2

April 4th, 2012 at 4:46 PM ^

Equal?

Burke, skillwise, according to most scouts, scores extremely high.

His knocks are size and athleticism. Staying in college will not help either.

bronxblue

April 4th, 2012 at 5:44 PM ^

The concern with going to the NBDL is that his skills may very well atrophy because the game in that league is a step above AND-1 at times.  And while I doubt he'll get taller, a couple of years in college will make him stronger and physically bigger, which could help a bit.  I agree that the differences are not great, but then I'd rather stay in college and maybe catch a wave in a future draft versus trying to break in from the D-league.

HollywoodHokeHogan

April 4th, 2012 at 9:03 PM ^

in all your posts in this thread.   I think it's false.  The coaching in the D-League is not as good as the coaching at Michigan.  Nor will Burke receive as much attention from the coaches, because he likely won't be the most important player on his D-League team. I think that college offers a greater chance at improving his skills than the D-League.   He's not guranteed to end up in the D-league, of course, but if he declares and ends up wallowing in D-League purgatory, then he might have done better by staying. 

tylawyer

April 4th, 2012 at 5:01 PM ^

This would suck in an epic way.  I don't want to detract from how much this would suck.  But we should take some solace in what LaVall Jordan was able to accompish with Morris, Burke, and Douglass.  Jordan develops talent.  No -- actually he develops the LIVING HELL out of talent.  And I suspect that he'll continue to do so whether we sign this Spike person or the kid from Italy.

bronxblue

April 4th, 2012 at 5:08 PM ^

Hopefully Burke has really thought this through, because this is a major life decision being made based on evidence that, frankly, is never that reliable.  Yes, the NBA accounting will say he's a first-rounder, but how often do guys at the bottom fall to the second?  Quite commonly.

Listen, UM will survive - new kids will get recruited, the team will struggle but probably still make the tourney, and life will go on.  But this is Burke's one chance both at playing college ball and being drafted in the NBA.  If his information proves untrue and he gets drafted in the second round, he may well find himself at the bottom of a bench or, worse, the NBDL playing in Fort Wayne for 2-3 years. 

I won't knock a kid, any kid, for doing what he feels is best for him, but as a (largely) unbiased third party, this feels like a rush decision that is going to blow up in the wrong way.  Maybe Burke surprises everyone and makes the leap, but shorter guys with non Nate Robinson athleticism struggle to get a spot in an NBA roster, especially guys who are as young as Burke would be.

snoopblue

April 4th, 2012 at 5:09 PM ^

Look at the PGs in the NBA, and then think about Trey. What the hell is he thinking? It must be..

1) I can develop faster in the NBA or in the D-League because I won't have to worry about school issues and can focus 100% on basketball. More/Better coaching + I'll be getting paid - not CRAZY money but still a good amount.

2) I just want to make one big cash grab.

Still doesn't make any sense. His stock isn't high enough where he'll be getting a huge contract or anything. He'll be a premier player at Michigan for 2 years given he says, and he'll basically be an afterthought in the NBA if he doesn't pan out after one season.

Is it me or is Trey's dad Benji kind of riding his son's coat tails and trying to be all up in this Burke leaving/staying business. I'm all about parents being involved with their kids lives but it seems like he WANTS to be part of it more than just wants to support. 

MDubs

April 4th, 2012 at 5:18 PM ^

my question is how he gets an eval ranking that puts him above where all the analysts so far have reported him going

like, is this just us having been using selective confirmation bias information up until now, or is that eval out of left field?

MDubs

April 4th, 2012 at 5:28 PM ^

Well, I say that because I've seen a fair amount of second-hand postings on Mgoblog saying so-and-so analyst says he'd be 2nd round and should stay.  I guess that was just Mgoposters finding random bits of feel-good info then

Yeoman

April 4th, 2012 at 6:04 PM ^

that had him going late first round. Next year's draft might be a little softer and they may (or may not, since the only knock given against him is size) be projecting a bit of skill improvement from this year to next, but 20-35 doesn't seem out of line to me. And it's entirely possible, depending on where he lands, that his improvement will be quicker if he jumps than if he stays. He needs better practice competition than Michigan is going to be able to provide next year--he might or might not get it, depending on what happens, but if he really is a first round pick it's likely he will.

SanDiegoWolverine

April 4th, 2012 at 6:35 PM ^

He is not even in it. The top 100 is where you would be drafted if you declared now. Next years draft is assuming improvement. His ability has a part and feel for the game can improve for sure. If he is on a top ten team next year and averages close to seven assists he is a lottery pick. He may lose millions if he leaves now.

umchicago

April 4th, 2012 at 8:07 PM ^

let's say that's a realistic expectation.  ok, if i'm a GM and it's getting late in round 1, would I take a 5'11" point guard there, knowing that I would have to guarantee his contract?  or would I take the 6'9" european dude with upside?

sorry, but i'm taking that european dude.  at least i know he has NBA size.  until a GM gets these guys in camp, he has no idea how good these guys really are and i think they will be reluctant to guarantee a contract on a 5'11" guy.

imo, he gets drafted somewhere in round 2 where a team can evaluate him against other NBA talent before offering a contract.  i hope i'm wrong, but my prediction is that he is cut from the team that drafts him and he ends up in europe.

WolvinLA2

April 4th, 2012 at 9:03 PM ^

Or you take Tyshawn Taylor or Scott Machado or Tu Halloway who should all be available then.  All three of those guys are bigger than Burke, and have a lot more of a track record to go on. 

But yeah, he's not going to sniff the first round anyway, so this is moot.

Away Goal

April 4th, 2012 at 6:03 PM ^

This is where I feel the draft evaluations are a terrible disservice to the player.  Sure he "could" be drafted with the 20th pick, but maybe it's like a 0.5% chance, but they don't tell them that part.  Probably a better chance he goes undrafted.  It happens way too often

Yeoman

April 4th, 2012 at 8:17 PM ^

Like a list of people who received first round grades, or a comparison of known grades received to eventual draft position?

I know the reports are confidential, but enough of them leak out that it should be possible to get at least a rough check on their accuracy.

NateVolk

April 4th, 2012 at 5:28 PM ^

It's about entry point. If he sincerely doesn't believe he can improve his entry point to warrant staying, I guess he shouldn't. But that doesn't necessarily mean he'll never be more NBA ready than right now.  He could be a more NBA ready player with another year or two of college competition but the way the NBA evaluates, they may not see that in his game.

I heard Kareem talking about this issue not too long ago and he said a couple things get missed by both the NBA scouting machine and the players in these situations:

1. The idea that you can't significantly improve your skill level and physical ability between the ages of 18 and 22 in a college environment is not based on anything concrete. It is treated as some law, when there are too many examples to count of previously unknown kids emerging later in college.

2. This idea actually stigmatizes players who do stay to the point where they look at playing out their college careers as being a detriment, even if they would significantly improve their games and readiness by staying.

3. The NBA devalues maturity and the effect it can have on skill improvement to the point now where it is considered irrelevant. Take a guy like Demarcus Cousins. All world ability but too immature to be reliable.  A player should be measured on his overall production and contribution to winning, not just glossy physical skills. The NBA draft is very seldom about context, but instead mining for the next Lebron.

4. Kids who go early and don't get drafted high often have less opportunity to work on their games in actual game competition. A superstar top 10 pick will get lots of freedom to develop in a game, while someone drafted low first or second round  will have a lot more to lose during their scant minutes.  They often don't get the time or freedom to flourish and show flair in their game or to gain comfort.

The system is what it is and the prevailing wisdom is you can develop just as well in the NBA as in college, but that doesn't mean that wisdom is correct.

 

Yeoman

April 4th, 2012 at 5:58 PM ^

which is that a player drafted low first round may not get a lot of game minutes but he may get some high-quality practice time. Practice minutes against a Westbrook or a Chris Paul would be an experience he's not going to get if he stays at Michigan another year.

It's not as obvious to me what the right decision is as it seems to be to most of you. I agree with you about some NBA teams undervaluing maturity but I don't think Burke fits the immature profile.

 

SanDiegoWolverine

April 4th, 2012 at 6:21 PM ^

After training camp there's about ten practices during the year. That's it. You have to be very self motivated to learn during an NBA season and the kind of skills you need as a point guard can't really be learned without structured practice or playing time. Point guard is the one position that without a doubt it helps to develop more in college unless you are a super star.

NateVolk

April 4th, 2012 at 7:05 PM ^

No I don't think he is immature either, but he doubtlessly has room to mature as do most 18-19 year olds.  He definitely has room to mature his game and that's something that I think is not well considered by a lot of draft prospects.  They assume they can get the same effect while earning a paycheck.

Again though, you go back to that stigma attached to guys who stay. It's so hard to blame a kid for leaving if he feels personally comfortable with his entry point.

On the other side of things, I gotta believe Kareem has an interesting point about how you do see guys emerge and become much better pro-ready players as they move through college. That's an idea that doesn't seem to have weight with NBA teams anymore.

93Grad

April 4th, 2012 at 5:38 PM ^

to start questioning Belien's relationships with his players as a potentail cause for all this attrition.  There is now a clear pattern of quality players leaving the program early: Udoh, Grady, LLP, Harris, Morris, Smote and now Burke. 



That is a bad trend and while each situation is different the one common thread seems to be that they all had difficulty with Belien or the program at some point. 

maizenblueCW2

April 4th, 2012 at 5:45 PM ^

It appears the tandem bike got fixed! I saw Lewan and another non-football-player-looking guy biking up Hill St. from State. It was a particularly difficult uphill section and I passed by the two as they stopped to breathe at Oakland. Lewan muttered "Fuck this" between gasps.

 

Keep with it Taylor and random guy!