Bright, Sunshiny Unverified Voracity Comment Count

Brian

Site update. It took a little longer than we thought it would but we have restored commenting abilities for IE users. This serves as your regular reminder that you should switch to Chrome or Firefox. Also, users should be able to upload avatars again. Also I updated the "MGoElsewhere" menu a bit so it contains links to twitter feeds for both Tim and Tom.

jordan-morgan

Chris Ryba/Daily

The destruction of the innocents. Basketball beat Northwestern 75-66 yesterday as Jordan Morgan went ham (11 of 13, 27 points) against the Phantom of the Opera and John Shurna failed to exist. Shurna's been limited much of the season and apparently picked something new up recently. His last three games are a DNP against OSU and two games in which he played around 25 minutes but only attempted 5 field goals. Michigan may have gotten a little fortunate there.

I don't have a ton to say that UMHoops didn't cover in the link above but some praise is in order for Morris, Hardaway, and Douglass for setting up Morgan's monster night. Almost all of Morgan's baskets were assisted and even on the ones that weren't his teammates were setting him up in excellent position. Example: Douglass had an excellent post feed—in a year when any post feed is a rarity—that allowed Morgan to immediately spin baseline for a layup. Northwestern's D is terrible so this may stand as a career game for Morgan but it was good to see him be so efficient after that Ohio State game where going up soft cost Michigan badly. Morgan started the game off in similar fashion before becoming ruthless.

Meanwhile, at one point I exclaimed "shoot that!" when Hardaway passed up an open three. Progress all around. I wasn't even that mad about the terrifying Northwestern run because it was four straight three pointers, two of them challenged to the point where there could have been a foul.

Kenpom moved a bit afterwards. Not losing a game Michigan was only mildly favored in pushed the season prediction to almost exactly 17.5-13.5 and increased the chance of reaching 9-9 and therefore the bubble to 16%. Slightly beating the prediction moved Michigan up to 52nd, one spot behind Michigan State.

More fodder for next year's optimism. The Only Colors tracks an individual stat called PORPAG that sort of mimics baseball's VORP. (The usual caveats that basketball is a team game and you don't know about defense, etc., apply.) A quick glance at their top 15 shows Darius Morris sixth. That's excellent. More excellent still is that only four players in the top 15 are going to be around next year: UW's Jordan Taylor, Morris, Shurna, and IU's Jordan Hulls. The rest are seniors or Jared Sullinger. So not only is Michigan returning everyone but the rest of the Big Ten is getting hammered by graduation.

This is not a throwdown. So one part of the now confusingly diverse Maize 'n' Brew crew got sick of my repeated assertions that The Process was the worst way to acquire any new head coach, Brady Hoke or not. The result was this very long post that asserts Michigan's most recent recruiting class is "awesome" and makes other arguments that I don't even know what to do with. Since that post's been disputed by another of that site's contributors and effectively countered by a long message board thread here that's surprisingly light on snark and image macros. I'll forgo a response (other than, you know, this) because Mets Maize made it pointless:

One Small Step for Hoke, One Giant Leap for Hokeamania

There you go: the events of the last month delivered with maximum pith. Nothing has changed the fact Michigan had a candidate pool of one in their coaching search that started in January that they were probably going to start no matter the result of the bowl game.

Hopefully we'll start seeing some reason for optimism other than Mattison soon. Nothing in the intervening weeks qualifies, not even Jason Whitlock's endorsement.

Wasted effort. The Sporting News's Dave Curtis went to some trouble to find out that converting third downs is a good idea. It's gotten play a few places because it's February 10th and the long hard college football offseason has started. I don't like this because I am all mathy and stuff and this…

All five BCS bowl winners ranked among the nation’s top 13 teams in third-down differential. The differential statistic, not officially computed by the NCAA, takes a team’s third-down conversion rate on offense and subtracts its opponents’ third-down conversion rate.

…is not useful at all. "Drives are good," it says.

Worse, it places undue emphasis on third down itself when first and second down are equally, if not more, important. This has unfortunately succumbed to linkrot but back in the day I did an analysis of third downs by distance and frequency, coming to the unsurprising conclusion that short was good and great third down conversion rates are often more indicative of what you did before third down than anything else. Just looking at third down rates is goofy because first and second down contribute to the distance you have to go—you're really looking at "first and second and third down conversion rate," which is fine if you want to look at that. Just don't make it seem like third down is really really important when your number doesn't control for the effects of first and second.

Old news. I got distracted writing posts on the 4-3 and Tim Hardaway that ballooned into way longer thing than I thought they'd end up being, so some items fell through the cracks. You've seen these already if you read anything other than the front page here.

One: Wojo interviewing Brady Hoke. Amongst the increasingly familiar Passion For Michigan, Denard As NFL Vick, and Tremendous Toughness segments were a couple of things that are not familiar. One was Hoke saying he was "pissed off" at Michigan's factionalism the past three years, which is a refreshingly blunt way for a coach to say anything. The other was the admission that beer had a role in shaping Hoke's physique:

Q. Did you just drop a hint you were a bit wild back in your college days?

A. Uh, yeah, for two years I really didn't have the best goals in mind. I wanted to play football and try to drink every beer in Muncie, Ind. And I tell parents that on visits.

I'm trying to ignore the bit that follows wherein "funnest" gets deployed. Football coaches and grammar, man.

Hoke comes off as likeable, down to earth, etc. Even if you're of the opinion that ADs tweeting out old Jason Whitlock articles as evidence in favor of anything is awful, at least the guy he hired has a solidly positive rootability factor.

BONUS:

Q. How often do you chew a kid's tail?

A. Oh, usually daily.

Do yourself a massive favor by taking that out of context.

Two: De-emphasizing Denard, a little bit. This is almost a week old and has the freshness of Abe Vigoda but:

"To a degree … we're blowing a lot of it up," new Michigan offensive coordinator Al Borges said. "In our offense, I don't see Denard rushing for 1,700 yards, and I told him that. But I could see him rushing for 1,000 yards, and I could see him throwing for that 700 or 800 he didn't rush for."

Hives hives hives hives hives… mmm smaller, treatable hives. Borges later praises Denard's completion percentage as a couple other coaches make noises about a running game that looks "a little different" and emphasizes more "downhill" running. It then throws this in at the end:

Michigan was eighth nationally in total offense, averaging 488.69 yards, 13th in rushing (234.54), 25th in scoring (32.77) and 36th in passing (250.15).

…and returns ten starters. I'll come around on Al Borges after he's got a tall strapping fellow bombing it for 10 YPA but the chances I don't spend next year bitching about the misapplication of Denard Robinson are slim. I'm not even sure how you get him 1,000 yards if he's taking snaps from center. You can only run so many waggles and Incredibly Surprising QB Draws. As always, I hope to be pleasantly surprised. Hoke uber alles.

Etc.: Michigan picks up a 2013 hockey commit; JT Compher is a forward from Illinois who seems high-end, like first-round OHL pick and easy NTDP pick high-end. We'll see if that holds up as he ages. Mets Maize on the Northwestern game. More justified hockey grumbling. Spring game will be April 16th. Michigan football documentary series planned. The Wolverine Blog points out that the guys who "couldn't shoot ever" now can and that's probably another thing we can add to the list of reasons Darius Morris is awesome. Scot Loeffler becomes Temple's OC.

Comments

m83econ

February 10th, 2011 at 9:07 PM ^

Hoke's track record provides no reason he won't excel at Michigan?  Maybe I missed too many math classes to understand, but he's under .500 as a head coach.  There's ample evidence to suggest the Hoke regime may be nothing more than mediocre.  Besides the overall record,  Hoke has only had 2 years where his defense gave up less than 25 ppg.  I think everyone hopes he will be successful, but there's a lot in Hoke's track record to cause doubt.

PRod

February 11th, 2011 at 9:38 AM ^

Who knows how the Hoke era will turn out, but looking at his records at his two previous stops to coaching at Michigan is like comparing apples to oranges.  Yourself and Brian who wrote this article would  seem to have only been happy if Michigan hired Bill Cowher as their head coach, Jon Gruden as the offensive coordinator and Bill Parcells as their defensive coordinator.  Hoke does have more D-1 wins than all but one current Big Ten coach (Jerry Kill) before he got his current job.

michgoblue

February 11th, 2011 at 11:26 AM ^

"There's ample evidence to suggest the Hoke regime may be nothing more than mediocre. "

I assume that you are in the camp of "we should have kept RR."  If so, I say to your statement:  in 3 years at Michigan, RR didn't even approach mediocre.  Mediocre is better than an unmitigated disaster, which is what our program was in the past three years.

"there's a lot in Hoke's track record to cause doubt."

Well, if the RR experience has proven anything it is that track record is only so reliable.  Meanwhile, Hoke has taken two complete loser programs in Ball State and SDSU and made them successful.  RR took a team that hadn't had a losing record in decades and attained 15 wins in 3 years.

 

 

michgoblue

February 11th, 2011 at 12:22 PM ^

It is sad for our program that you are trying to prove to me that after three whole years, yes, we have finally achieved mediocrity. 

But I do see your point - my post was unnecessarily strong.  7-6 is, as you point out, the very definition of mediocrity.  I know that I am not helping the problem by engaging in these discussions, but I am just so sick of the countless post mortems on the RR era.  Everyone has their set opinions.  Nobody will convince anyone else, so can't we all just agree that, for whatever reason, the RR era was not successful and was a disappointment, and just move on.

GBOD79

February 11th, 2011 at 12:59 PM ^

All of the post mortems come about because the initial change from Carr to Rodriguez envoked so much emotion from the fan base, one way or another. The RR supporters constantly felt they had to defend their preference and the Carr supporters constantly railed against the shift from Pro-Style to the Spread and from tradition to new blood.

This is somewhat of a fanbases way of mourning. It sounds strange but I think this is exactly what is happening. I think we all need to, in this time of transition, relax and let people vent. Whether you are an ardent RR supporter/sympathizer or a Hokeamaniac, winning will ultimately unite the fanbase and end the postmortems of the RR era.

MGoShoe

February 11th, 2011 at 4:31 PM ^

...point of view, but I'd offer that all of the angst over RR by the LC faithful contributed directly to his failure. As such, my hope is that RR supporters will realize that nothing good will come of tearing down Hoke. Similarly, the need for some to continually bad mouth RR is just as destructive. A pox on all their houses, I say.

My advice is that we let the mourning period end now. Not saying you have to be a Hokeamaniac, just stop spouting off about how Hoke is a crappy coach and Dave Brandon is an idiot and a liar.

gbdub

February 11th, 2011 at 12:38 PM ^

Ball State was 6-6 and co-champions of their MAC division the year before Hoke started. It took Hoke 5 years to improve on that record. Ball State was 2-10 the year after he left, suggesting he did not leave a very solid foundation. SDSU was a quicker turnaround, but it's yet to be seen if he built a good program or just had a good year.

Hoke may be a good coach, but let's be realistic about his record.

M-Wolverine

February 11th, 2011 at 10:01 AM ^

But I'm more into cherry picking other people's points and adding emphasis than continually raging against the machine. I had my one rant on the editorial position. But I'll still point out inaccuracies.

gbdub

February 11th, 2011 at 12:10 AM ^

As you've made clear, wins against quality Big Ten opposition are the only really meaningful measure of success. Talk is cheap.

Remind me again how many Big Ten games Brady Hoke has won as Michigan's head coach? Why is his press conference cause for so much optimism? Sure, he loves Michigan. So do I. So did Rich Rod. OSU doesn't care.

He talks a great game (this is not unimportant), but he's still 47-50 and he still has to transistion a good offense into a very different scheme as well as rebuild a lousy defense with a lot of young talent but little experience and apparently poor previous coaching. This is not an easy task. His biggest successes so far are retaining the previous coaches' star QB and hiring a big name DC (who actually has a relatively mixed record). I hardly think it's high treason to be a little skeptical till we see some results on the field.

And if you haven't noticed, Brian's tone has always been sarcastic and frankly a bit pessimistic. This is not something that began with Hoke. Besides, after the repeated dong punchings of the last 4 years, unbridled optimism makes some of us feel a little vulnerable. I really really really hope that the Hokester turns out to be a great Michigan coach. I'm just not going to anoint him that until he wins some games.

Eye of the Tiger

February 11th, 2011 at 2:32 AM ^

By my last count, it stands at 0 too.  If the enthusiasm for "dazzle 'em and win multiple national championships with my unbeatable system" Rich Rod was a bit misplaced in 2007, then so are the cries of "doom! doom! doom! with Brady Hoke" in 2010.  We have to wait and see.  

In my opinion, the fact that Hoke has put together a decent-looking staff, and saved the recruiting class from armageddon, is a good start.  It's reason for some guarded optimism.  But again, the real test comes when Big 10 season starts next year.  

If we can accomplish 3 of the following 4 in 2011, then I'll be confident we're most likely on the right path:

a) Win 9+ games 

b) Break even or better in Big 10 play

c) Beat at least 1 of MSU/OSU

d) Pull in a top 10 recruiting class

I see this as plausible.  

gbdub

February 11th, 2011 at 9:32 AM ^

I don't think my attitude is one of "doom". Hoke seems enthusiastic and competent. That said, guarded pessimism is just as reasonable as guarded optimism.  We are, afterall, trying to totally revamp the offense just when it was starting to hit its stride. Our new coach does have a losing record. His defenses have been average or worse, except for a couple seasons. These are valid, meaningful criticisms. There is a nonzero chance that this will all go to hell again. Tell me, how many lucky breaks has this program gotten in the last, oh, half decade?

Pessimistic fans are still fans (otherwise the Lions would have no fans). It's annoying that Brian keeps getting ripped for daring to express a little pessimism on his site. It' especially annoying because Brian's schtick has always been what I would label "informed but sarcastic cynicism". Very, very rarely has he expressed umitigated enthusiasm (and even then he thinks karma's gonna get him). You're talking about a guy that peppered previews the last two seasons with DOOM and HOLD ONTO THE GODDAMN BALL, and frequently labels 19 year old kids quite bluntly as "just a guy".

Here's my theory of why there's some bitterness in the camp of the pessimists regarding "The Process":

1) There were valid and invalid crticisms of Rich Rod. Valid: He lost too many noncompetitive games. Defensive progress did not match offensive progress. etc. Invalid criticism: Rich Rod does not "get" Michigan. He is not a Michigan Man. His players are not TOUGH MANBALL MEN. He is an uncultured Mexican hillbilly that gets his psychology from Rafiki instead of Nietzsche.

The valid criticisms were probably enough to fire him. Fine. But then we hired a guy who's major advantage over Rich Rod (other than two more wins in 2010) is that he answers the INVALID criticisms. It seems like the worst aspects of the Michigan fanbase won out in the job search (MICHIGAN MEN ONLY!). The fact is that Hoke would not have been hired if he hadn't coached for U of M. As someone who appreciates in depth analysis and likes to think of our fanbase as smarter than most, this hurts, and I suspect Brian feels similarly.

2) Brandon lied to us. And he did so in a condescending way that suggest he thinks we're morons. Does anyone here really believe that Harbaugh or Miles were not offerred the job (or at the very least would have been if they'd wanted it)? Does anyone believe that the search was truly national and not "Let's go down the list of Michigan Men"? Brandon deflected questions about the hire with essentially, "I know more than you, shut up". We don't like being treated like morons.

I desperately hope that Hoke returns us to national competitiveness. Neither of the reasons I mention above are Hoke's fault nor are they knocks against his dedication. I actually think he'll do well. But they are reasons to feel a little dirty about the process. That dirt won't get washed off until we win games, and until then, I'm in the "guarded pessimist" camp.

MGoShoe

February 11th, 2011 at 11:13 AM ^

...points (invalid criticisms of RR and DB's "lies"), I say: at this point in time, I just don't care about those things. It's all water under the bridge and essentially ancient history. The only thing that matters now is what happens going forward.

It's time to stop living in the past and get on board with Michigan Football's new direction.

What other constructive choice do we fans have?

All this bitching and moaning about "The Process" and how RichRod was unfairly treated is turning me into a full on member of the Decatur Clan.

As I've said before, anyone who still considers themselves any of the following M Clans needs to just stop. It's time to unite the Clans by letting go of past loyalties and instead renewing your pledge to Michigan Football and its one and only HC, Brady Hoke.

Clan Description Take on Hoke Hire

Bo Clan (15%)

image 

Former Bo players and those associated or feel very closely tied (e.g, alums or “Bo signed my hat when I was 9” folks) to that era.  Defense wins championships, people. Not really happy, despite Brandon having played for Bo. Glad there’s an M guy at the helm but upset it’s not Miles or Harbaugh. Suspect DB didn’t give Miles/Harbaugh a serious enough look.  Propagators of the theory that the interview process was a charade—Hoke was always the target.

The Rebellion (9%)

image

Bloggers, message-board hounds, recruitniks. Statistical analysis shows, nay, proves that an innovative offense (RR/Chip Kelly) is what is required in Ann Arbor.  And you never punt, man. Carr’s tendencies became maddening in the final few years, and rumors of Carr steering recruits away from U-M make them slam down their X-box controllers in rage. Pissed. Feel that Michigan deserved a) a bigger name and, particularly, b) a man with a more progressive offensive scheme. Early love earned by DB is gone especially after he mucked up their “precious" – the recruiting class.  Now, “Brandon’s just another suit, man.” 

Any anger toward me after reading this was diffused by the appearance of a pie chart on this post.

In Rod We Trusted (5%)

image

Die-hard Rich Rod-backers with close ties to The Rebellion. RR should have been retained. Their support was hardened by the negative media coverage coupled with the idiotic ad hominem attacks by sports radio callers and national drive-by columnists/hosts.  He never was given a chance. Not happy with how Rich Rod was treated. Would have accepted Harbaugh.  They don’t understand how Hoke could possibly considered a better option than Rich Rod.  Won’t say it aloud, but a tiny part of them hopes Hoke fails so they can tell the Happy-go-Hokey media and the Carr Clan to eat a big fat one.

Lloyd Loyalists

(20%)

image

Former Carr players and those (alums) who feel deep ties to that era. Feel Carr’s Legacy is unfairly represented by many, including the Rebellion and In Rod Clans.  They "won"; they got their guy. Thought Hoke should have been a candidate three years ago. Feel some revenge for how Carr’s assistants were treated during the RR transition. 

Would like to tell the RR crew, “It’s over man.  Brandon dropped the big one.”

 

Cope

February 11th, 2011 at 11:31 AM ^

And I don't know why we can't do that. Perhaps I'm naive, but I don't understand why some M fans hate LC, BS, DB, BH, or RR so much. We shouldn't call ourselves a storied program unless we respect the program, the men who led (and lead) us, and the men who played for us. Those are, in fact, the only stories we have. We're supposed to be on the same team. It's time we got together and acted like it. G o b l u e ! !

GBOD79

February 11th, 2011 at 12:05 PM ^

"As I've said before, anyone who still considers themselves any of the following M Clans needs to just stop. It's time to unite the Clans by letting go of past loyalties and instead renewing your pledge to Michigan Football and its one and only HC, Brady Hoke." 

 

Except this is almost impossible. As people we all hold loyalties and have preferences. The so called bitching about the process and the coach is part of being a fan. Hoke lover's, Rodriguez lover's, etc are all still fans of Michigan football. They just have different preferences and grievances.

 

What we need to do is accept the fact that we have no control over anything football related and relax. We need to disagree with each other respectfully and not in a manner that is going to cause perception problems for the program. There is a big difference between:

 

"Brady Hoke sucks and never should have been hired" and "I just do not feel like Brady Hoke has the resume needed for the job of head coach of Michigan football."

 

One sounds bitter and negatively effects the perception of the program, the other just sounds like an honest grievance. Either way, letting your opinion be heard is ok, if done in an appropriate manner.

MGoShoe

February 11th, 2011 at 12:45 PM ^

...nearly impossible to set aside your allegiances to past coaches who are no longer the HC at Michigan especially since holding onto those allegiances causes destructive factionalism within the fanbase. I do agree that "we have no control over anything football related and [should] relax", but I'm having a hard time understanding how airing your "honest grievance" doesn't also sound bitter and negatively affect the perception of the program. Saying our HC isn't qualified to be our HC isn't a shot at the program? Really?

I do know this, it's music to the ears of OSU and MSU fans alike.

GBOD79

February 11th, 2011 at 12:53 PM ^

You raise good points shoe. What my post was intended to mean is that people will always have opinions on matters such as coaches and coaching changes. A blog is a medium which allows people to voice those opinions, whether negative or positive about the current coach.

 

Destructive factions only exist because members of the same fan base cannot disagree respectfully. They allow a contrary opinion to fester and make an enemy out of a fellow fan. Thats what needs to stop, not the airing of opinions.

A censored fanbase is still factionalized, its just quietly so.

gbdub

February 11th, 2011 at 12:30 PM ^

Okay Shoe, all of that is ancient history and all that matters is going forward. Ignoring the fact that history can hurt, a lot...

Going forward, the reality is that Brady Hoke is our coach, and his skills are directly related to the success of the football team we all care about to an unhealthy degree. Critically examining those skills based on his past record and current decisions regarding the team direction is entirely reasonable. Doing so honestly will reveal some good things and some bad things. It does not make one a bad fan to mention the bad things.

Going forward, Dave Brandon is our athletic director, and his decision making is directly related to our success. Critically examining his decision making based on past decisions is a reasonable way to extrapolate his future success. Not everything he has done is unquestionably good.

Of course we're going to compare Hoke to RR - it's the only baseline we have. Of course we're going to talk about Brandon's process - it's his biggest decision so far.

I get where you're coming from, I really do. And you're a reasonable person and valued contributor. But until the spring game, should we just shut up and gush about how dreamy Hoke is? That's a cheerleader website, not a sports blog.

 

Eye of the Tiger

February 11th, 2011 at 9:28 PM ^

Is that very little of it is "guarded."  Very little of it is founded either.  

Much is made of Hoke's overall losing record, but let's say, for the sake of argument, that his first two seasons at Ball St. should be taken out of the equation.  Why? Because he's a first-time HC at a school that hadn't posted a winning season in 6 years.  So the cupboard really was bare.  I know this is a tenuous argument (Harbaugh, for example, took over a 1-11 team and turned it around in 3).  But let's say because Hoke was really young and it was his first gig, he gets a little bit of slack at the helm of a really awful program.  His record becomes 42-33.  Still not amazing, but not terrible either.  Plus both jobs were reclamation projects.  

Michigan is not a reclamation project right now.  It's a "take it to the next level" project.  Hoke does not have a record yet on these kinds of things.  Will he try to "fix what ain't broke" on offense?  Will he misuse Denard?  Will he have the tactical savvy to compete with guys like Tressel, something neither of our last 2 coaches could figure out?

On the other hand, his last SDSU team was better on defense and more efficient scoring on offense than ours, with worse talent.  What's more, SDSU was very competitive in its 4 losses to teams with superior talent.  We were not.  So far, everything he and his staff have said point to building on our strengths rather than totally rebuilding them.  

So I think there's ample reason for "guarded optimism."  There's obviously cause for concern as well.  But there's really no case for "unbridled optimism" or writing him off before the season even starts.  The best case, of course, is for supporting your coach and hoping for the best. :)