Blogpoll Week 11 Draft Ballot

Submitted by Tim on November 8th, 2010 at 9:14 AM

Quick Notes:

  • At the top, Auburn has a few more impressive pelts on their wall, but Oregon has been winning their games more convincingly. The two are essentially tied at the top.
  • The big win over Utah bumps TCU ahead of Boise, despite the Broncos' similarly convincing win over Hawaii. Utah is a much better victim.
  • LSU and Stanford are essentially tied. Just like at the top of the poll, the SEC team has less convincing wins over a slightly better schedule.
  • From 8 to about 19, there are arguments for reordering the teams. I'm certainly open to hearing them in the comments. I sort of want to move Alabama down, so if you can provide good reasoning for that, let me know.
  • I was struggling to find teams for the end of the poll (like usual). Texas A&M has only one "good" win, that being over Oklahoma, but their three losses are to my current #12, #16, and #18 teams, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now.

The resume chart lives here, if you're interested in the raw data. Comment away.

Comments

WolvinLA2

November 8th, 2010 at 11:10 AM ^

I agree, Wisconsin over Nebraska.  Nebraska lost to Texas (in Lincoln), who we now see is pretty bad, Wisconsin's only loss is to another one loss team, on the road.  Wisconsin beat OSU and Iowa, as impressive as Nebraska's wins over Mizzou and OK State (I thinkn OSU > Mizzou and Iowa > OKSt, but it's close).  Nebraska's big win over (overrated, IMO) K state is negated by needing overtime to beat ISU by one.  Wisconsin only beat Arizona State by one, but has destroyed every other non-top 25 team on their schedule.

This is a close one, but the edge should go to Wisconsin.  If nothing else, Big Ten, yo!

a2husker

November 8th, 2010 at 12:07 PM ^

Biased as I am, I think Wisconsin gets the edge over NU here. I see OSU > Missouri and Ok St > Iowa, which is a push, but the loss to Texas is worse than the loss to MSU.

However, no way no how should NU be bumped below Ohio St., as OSU's top two wins are distinctly worse than the Huskers'. Right now they look about level with Sparty, and while I'd argue for a Wisc, NU, MSU, OSU ordering, if you flipped NU and MSU I'd understand why.

Fhshockey112002

November 8th, 2010 at 9:36 AM ^

As much as I would love to see Bama move further down, it is tough to move them further than the 11 spot.  Most of the teams 12-16 have major holes.  The teams in the next two spots Ok. State would then move up 6 spots after a win over Baylor, and Iowa has not looked impressive the last three weeks.

jlvanals

November 8th, 2010 at 10:20 AM ^

I think Utah needs to be down more.  Their best wins are Air Force and Pitt, both of which look like good but not great teams (7-5/bowl eligible at best).   Also, it seems to me that LSU should be the highest one loss team.  They've beaten Alabama, North Carolina, Miss. St., Florida and West Virginia while losing by a touchdown at Auburn (consensus #1) in a game that could have gone either way.  Stanford's had a good year, but their best win by a long shot is Arizona or USC (after that: UCLA?).  I'd argue no one besides Auburn has more quality wins than LSU at this point.  I think Stanford would win in a hypothetical game, but just judging on resume I dont see how Stanford gets the nod.  Arkansas should probably also be higher after knocking off Sakerlina and their only two losses coming to Alabama and Auburn.  I would consider flipping Arkansas and Utah at this point.  Personally, I think there is a good argument that Utah isnt a top 20 team as TCU depantsed them at home (compare Utah to Nevada. While Nevada clearly shouldn't be ranked higher, they do have a better quality W in Cal and have played many of the same teams to similar margins by virtue of playing 1/2 the mtn west out of conference). 


All that being said, I think this season has made it difficult to rank the middle teams.  Your ballot is internally consistent and makes sense. 

Seth

November 8th, 2010 at 10:40 AM ^

  MSU OSU WIS
Loss 6-37 @ Iowa 18-31 @ Wis. 24-34 @ MSU
Best Win 34-24 Wis 36-24 Miami 31-18 OSU
2 26-6 Ill 24-13 @ Illini 31-30 @ Iowa
3 34-17 @ Mich 49-0 Purdue 34-13 @ Purdue
4 35-27 @ NW 38-10 Ind. 20-19 ASU
5 31-8 Minn 52-10 @ Minn 41-23 Minn
6 34-31 ND 45-7 Marshall  - 
7 38-14 WMU 43-7 Ohio 41-21 @ UNLV
8 30-17 Fl.Atl 73-20 EMU 27-14 SJSt.
FCS 45-7 N.Colo   70-3 Austin Peay

Losses: I give Wisconsin a bit of an edge for the 10-point loss at MSU, even though they were dominated in that game, because it was closer than OSU/Wis. The worst is obviously MSU getting blown out at Iowa, a good team, but ranked below Wis and MSU.

Big Win: Reversing the losses, Wisconsin's big win over Ohio State edges out MSU's win over Wisconsin. Ohio State's biggest win is Miami (they don't play MSU or Wisconsin).

2nd Best Win: Wisconsin sweeps the top 3 spots, with a 31-30 victory on the road at Iowa far, far ahead of MSU and Ohio State's virtually identical sluggish start/2nd half beatings of Illinois. I give the slight edge to Ohio State, even though the final score was closer, since MSU's last touchdown was academic, and OSU won on the road, but really I could be convinced otherwise too because Ohio State looked worse than Michigan State.

3rd Best Win: MSU's convincing rivalry win over 6-3 Michigan in Ann Arbor (their first road game of the year) is far and away more convincing than Purdue beatings...unless we lose ot Purdue this week. Of those, Ohio State nailed the Boilermakers in Columbus, while Wisconsin did appreciably worse in West Lafayette but against a more depleted roster.

4th Best Win: Again, Michigan State's got a road victory against a 6-3 middle-of-the-conference Big Ten team to put them far ahead of the other two. Ohio State got to eat up Indiana (proving it was our defense, not the greatness of Chappell) while Wisconsin hosted the Pac Ten's Indiana (Arizona State) and escaped by 1 point.

Minnesota: All three teams have played the Gophers this year, which I guess that's helpful except the Gophers are so bad that the difference between winning 52-10 and 31-8 could simply be how much of a dick your coach is about running up the score. This is where running up scores in the past hurts Bielema, and going into a cocoon so often helps Ohio State, since that 52-10 pasting (on the road) was merciless. MSU's convincing 31-8 win trumps Wisconsin's somewhat less convincing 41-23 win (both were home)

6th Best Win: I didn't even count Wisconsin here since the UNLV win belows with the bad mid-major pastings. Michigan State needed a last-minute fake punt to beat really bad Notre Dame, and Ohio State beat up on Marshall. Sigh. MSU.

Beating crappy teams: The only thing of any significance here is that if Florida International's coach hadn't packed it in when he still had a chance to win, that 30-17 victory for MSU at Ford Field could have been something. Really, we don't learn much about teams from beating on guys like this.

FCS: In my book, winning 300-0 gets you zero points -- anything remotely close makes you lose points.

Tally:

  1 2 3
Loss Wis. OSU MSU
Best Win Wis. MSU OSU
2 Wis. OSU MSU
3 MSU OSU Wis.
4 MSU OSU Wis.
Minnesota OSU MSU Wis.
6 MSU OSU Wis.
7 Wis. OSU MSU
8 OSU Wis. MSU

So we can cut out Ohio State, who was basically 2nd all the way down until the rounds that don't matter much. They don't even have to be right behind whichever of the two below we like. Really, Wisconsin's claim to fame is that they're the only ones to have played all three of the other Big Ten title contenders (Iowa being the last), so they're 2-1 in those games whereas OSU and MSU are 1-1. Michigan State's claim to fame is that they won their head to head with Wisconsin.

8. Wisconsin

9. Michigan State

10. Ohio State

I think you got it right.

beenplumb

November 8th, 2010 at 10:42 AM ^

The saddest thing of all is that the best case scenario for UM, and I mean dream-sequence-fantasy best case scenario, is us somehow beating Purdue, Wisconsin, and (gasp) Ohio State, and sending MSU to the Rose Bowl.

Never saw that one coming...

joeyb

November 8th, 2010 at 10:45 AM ^

Remind me again what good wins USC has? A 48-14 win at home against a team that might not make it to a bowl game? A blowout on the road of a 1-win team? Then, they barely scrape by another team this weekend that might not make it to a bowl game while at home. I'd say they have about as much of an argument for being in the top 25 as Michigan (I'm advocating that neither one should be). I haven't really looked to see who you could replace them with, but I'd imagine there is at least one 6-3 team out there with a big win over a ranked opponent.

formerlyanonymous

November 8th, 2010 at 10:58 AM ^

I can't justify the Stanford over LSU.

Win comparison (slightly different order than the chart): Alabama>Arizona, Mississippi State ~< USC, Florida>Washington, WVU>UCLA, UNC>ND, Tennessee~Wake Forest (rest of schedule is about equal as well)

That gives LSU the advantage in all but one, but even that edge of USC over MSU doesn't even look like that big of an advantage. Losses are a wash unless you want to get picky and say at least LSU kept it a one score game rather than Stanford's 21 point loss.

vegasjeff

November 8th, 2010 at 11:22 AM ^

nu's Texas loss at home worst loss among all four teams

8. Wisconsin

9. Ohio State

10. Michigan State

11. Nebraska

Wisconsin on top because they beat OSU; MSU after OSU because they were recently drubbed. That said, how many folks think Michigan is more likely to beat OSU than Wisconsin? I don't. (Of course, Wiscy game is at home.)

jshclhn

November 8th, 2010 at 12:30 PM ^

I would take Michigan over Central Florida.  The Knights are 7-2, and they're only opponents of any real consequence (both losses mind you) came against 6-3 BCS conference teams.  Which, by the way, Michigan is a 6-3 BCS conference team.

You probably aren't getting your hopes up because of the Penn State debacle, which I can understand.  In that case, you should be ranking the teams that defeated Central Florida - NC State and Kansas State.  I would also take your current weak dropouts, Baylor and Florida State, over Central Florida.

BlueAggie

November 8th, 2010 at 2:22 PM ^

If you're going to put Oklahoma and Missouri back to back, you might want to put Missouri ahead, of OU, considering Missouri has the head-to-head win.

Also, much as I love A&M's win this weekend, I think OU is in general overrated.  They have a big win over FSU, and the win over Texas looked good at the time, but a lot of their non-conference results were surprisingly close.  To wit:

Utah St. 31-24
Air Force 27-24 (admittedly AF is pretty good this year)
Cincinnati 31-29