Blogpoll Draft Ballot: Week 3

Submitted by Tim on September 21st, 2009 at 3:06 PM
Rank Team Delta
1 Alabama
2 Texas 2
3 Florida
4 Miami (Florida) 7
5 California 5
6 Mississippi 8
7 Boise State 1
8 Penn State 3
9 Cincinnati
10 Houston 3
11 Southern Cal 9
12 Ohio State 4
13 Florida State 11
14 Iowa
15 TCU 2
16 Virginia Tech 1
17 Georgia Tech 5
18 Kansas 7
19 LSU
20 Auburn
21 Oklahoma State 2
22 Michigan 1
23 Oklahoma 1
24 Brigham Young 18
25 Georgia
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: UCLA (#17), Nebraska (#18), North Carolina (#20), Notre Dame (#23).
  • USC obviously falls with their loss to Washington. Despite the head-to-head, I'm considering moving them below Ohio State, since the Buckeyes' loss wasn't nearly as embarrassing.
  • Florida didn't impress against Tennessee, allowing them to be jumped by Texas. Should the Horns' uncomfortably close win against Texas Tech prevent them from leaping the Gators?
  • Miami of Florida's move is predicated on two solid wins now on the season, both over teams that are ranked.
  • I think it's fair at this point to move Boise past Mississippi, especially since Oregon may not be the lost cause they looked to be a couple weeks ago. The Rebels (and other teams with strong schedules) will probably move past the Broncos in coming weeks no matter what.
  • I had more of an opportunity to dissect the results and take them into account this week. Nonetheless, I'm sure I've still made mistakes. Let me know in the comments and I'll try to fix them.

Comments

enlightenedbum

September 21st, 2009 at 3:22 PM ^

GT looked bad against Miami (Yes that Miami). I'm not sure yet if Miami is really good, I suppose we'll have a better idea in the next couple weeks. But still not sure if GT is a top 20 team.

Also, I think Iowa sucks.

If you're going to have BYU/Oklahoma consecutively, please put them in the right order, at least til Bradford is back and you can make an excuse that a Bradford led Oklahoma wins that game. I'm not so sure, but at least there would be an argument.

And I'm not sure how embarrassing the Washington loss is as far as this year is concerned. That stadium has always been a tough place to play when the Huskies are vaguely good. So far they put up 480 yards or so against LSU in a close game, blew out Idaho as expected and beat USC (with some turnover help). Don't drop them below OSU.

tricks574

September 21st, 2009 at 3:26 PM ^

Oklahoma falls after jailsexing some team I can't remember. I know it was because of FSU doing the same to BYU, but them and Michigan falling after performances like that just seems odd.

wishitwas97

September 21st, 2009 at 3:29 PM ^

moves up after an unimpressive performance against TT? Granted that the defense did a good job of limiting TT's passing offense but Texas offense could not do much against TT defense. At best, Texas should stay put or move up one spot because of USC loss.

Florida plays against a far superior defense in Tennessee(check last year stats as well as this year stats, they are very good).

formerlyanonymous

September 21st, 2009 at 3:40 PM ^

I disagree that that was an unimpressive win against TT. Their defense looked really good. Tech's defense is also underrated. If you're going to say look at Tennessee's stats over the last year, you need to make note of Tech's defense. It's not the same thing it was 3 years ago.

That said, I think the two wins are probably on par with each other. Both top teams played a high mid-tier team and beat them in a less than impressive way. Florida was exposed to not having a deep threat, Texas might have found a solid RB.

Plegerize

September 21st, 2009 at 6:21 PM ^

Yeah I have to agree with Wishitwas97 on Texas staying put.

While the margin of victory was about equal, the quality in the teams each played is different. Tennessee played a rising team in UCLA to a 4-point loss, while Texas Tech played an FCS school in North Dakota. Both teams played a winless team as well. But I think Florida would have the edge over Texas due to Tennessee having played a stronger schedule and based on their play so far compared to TT.

Perhaps just keep both put at where they were at, seeing how they practically played each other to a stalemate in terms of ranking status.

Dix

September 21st, 2009 at 3:32 PM ^

As Enlightened mentioned below, you might as well put BYU one spot ahead of Oklahoma right? There's no point putting them side by side with Oklahoma ahead, given their head to head result.

formerlyanonymous

September 21st, 2009 at 3:35 PM ^

I drop GT. Not only is their run game not that great, but their passing game is HORRIBLE. Reggie Ball is no longer the worst passer in history type bad.

As for OSU vs USC, I think you have to take in the fact that it was the backup QB that faced Washington as compared to Barkeley. It made an obvious difference. I also don't think U Dub is that bad. I could see them being a bowl team this year. A lot of people didn't find the upset that surprising. Embarrassing might be the wrong word.

VT should be higher. They just beat a team ranked in the media/coaches poll. They lost to your #1 team. They should definitely be above Iowa, probably OSU as well. Florida State is arguable more impressive so far in the lone loss coming from your #4 team. I'd place them above USC or OSU in the one-loss team category.

SanDiegoWolverine

September 21st, 2009 at 6:54 PM ^

Just based on who they've played and what the scores have been most people would agree with you. However, watching the games one would have to admit that their offense is completely pathetic and if not for a couple nice breaks those two bigs games could have been a lot worse for them. Maybe their offense improves and they validate their preseason rankings but otherwise I see them slipping outside the top 10.

formerlyanonymous

September 21st, 2009 at 3:46 PM ^

I also don't understand the Kansas bump. They beat Duke. They beat UTEP and Northern Colorado before that. What's the deal? Also, arguably Georgia to be higher, although I don't know over who with the clusters at the bottom.

annarborgoldenbear

September 21st, 2009 at 3:59 PM ^

Should at least be ranked - 3-0 with big win on the road against UT (who can't be THAT bad if Florida only beat them by 10 at home....right?) and decent win over another "Big Six" conference team in Kansas State.

Miami should be #2.

UMaD

September 21st, 2009 at 4:18 PM ^

You can't put OSU above USC. While losing to UW may seem more embarrassing, in reality USC outgained them significantly and ended up losing a road game under tough conditions (damp and rainy) primarily because of turnovers. Its a tough situation compared to OSU being unable to hold down the fort and looking pretty terrible offensively while losing to a true freshman QB. USC has 1 more impressive win, and a better excuse for a loss.

Ali G Bomaye

September 21st, 2009 at 4:36 PM ^

Iowa is way, way overranked. They beat a mediocre Arizona team, and that's about it. I think Georgia Tech may be overranked too, but I'm not sure - their lone good win (over Clemson) smelled pretty fluky, and their game against Miami was U-G-L-Y.

UMFootballCrazy

September 21st, 2009 at 4:36 PM ^

At this point the two best teams in the nation look to be Cal and Alabama, and while I agree with Alabama being number one, Cal should be number 2 ahead of Florida and Texas. A strong case could be made for Miami jumping both Florida and Texas based on resume.

DHerrick

September 21st, 2009 at 5:06 PM ^

All three of our wins are more impressive than Iowa's. I would have Michigan in the top 15. CFN has us at 11 and that looks about right to me.

Also, I would drop USC more and under Ohio State. Yes, we know they are good and will do better as the season progresses, but they lost to an unranked team that just snapped a 16 game losing streak the week before. Their loss is worse than OSU's. I would drop USC below Oklahoma too; Oklahoma's loss was to a ranked team at least. Washington should be ranked and ahead of USC (head to head win and loss to a ranked team).

Auburn should be higher; Notre Dame should be ranked; Mississippi should be way lower (what have they done so far?).

ZooWolverine

September 21st, 2009 at 5:14 PM ^

if only for the head asplode factor: to have Washington beat USC, USC beat OSU and yet OSU top ranked, USC next, and Washington last this early in the season when there aren't a lot of other games to confuse the picture.

But seriously . . . I didn't see the game so I can't speak to the impact of not having Matt Barkley but I think not having the starting QB is enough of a reason to keep a loss from being too embarressing.

Tim

September 21st, 2009 at 5:34 PM ^

Before I finish reading the comments, I want to remind people to stay away from "X moves up Y spots," since the previous week's ballot is not the standard of comparison. It's a full resume-ranking, and the body of work comes into account.

Also, for some reason, the deltas never work properly on my ballots anyway.

SanDiegoWolverine

September 21st, 2009 at 6:45 PM ^

and if it is does that resume include last year and perceived talent? On one hand it seems certain teams have been discounted because they haven't beaten anyone but on the other hand teams like Ole Miss and Florida are highly ranked but haven't beaten anyone of consequence yet.

I'd like to get a better of what goes into these rankings and what you are taking into account. This way we can better see the logic behind the poll.

I'm also of the belief that you can't have a resume ranking at this point in the year without taking preconceived notions (i.e., preseason and early season rankings) of teams into account.

the_white_tiger

September 21st, 2009 at 6:16 PM ^

If you're basing this purely on this year and not any of last year's results, Miami (that Miami) should be number one. Beating a ranked rival on the road and beating a top 15 team convincingly is better than anyone's resumé thus far.

M-Go-Bleu

September 21st, 2009 at 6:17 PM ^

I can't see Houston getting such a high spot. They beat Oklahoma State in what amounts to a rivalry game for them (i.e., in the Houston airport they have ad aimed at recruiting football players from Oklahoma.).

MichiganAggie

September 21st, 2009 at 6:21 PM ^

Miami is talented and does have wins against 2 top-25 teams; however, let's examine those 2 top-25 teams:

1) FSU. Miami barely beat them. FSU got ranked for beating up an (at the time over-rated) BYU. How did BYU get ranked so highly? By beating an OU squad that was missing Bradford and Grisham.

2) GaTech. Miami did win convincingly. Not sure what to make of GaTech. They jumped out to a big lead over Clemson and then looked like ass and were lucky to win.

Both of these teams are in the ACC, which has not fared too well in its OOC schedule.

So, where does that leave Miami?? They have beaten 2 top-25 teams, which is more than most teams can claim. Top-25 for sure. Top-5? I think that may be a bit too kind.

wolfman81

September 21st, 2009 at 6:25 PM ^

Head Asplode:
The dangers of early season resume ranking:

Miami #4 (They are too high. I don't believe that FSU and GT are better than ~#20, so #10 seems plenty high.)
Florida State #11 (Too big of a jump...BYU was overrated at #6)
Iowa #14 (from unranked? They only beat Arizona...)
LSU #19 (Is this because they beat Washington who beat USC? They could stay unranked as far as I care.)

I just don't buy it:

Mississippi #6 (They've beaten who? You preach resume ranking, and yet, their resume is frightfully blank. They should be #15-20. Tops.)
Cincinnati #9 (Their signature win is @Oregon State...They should be #15-20.)
Houston #10 (Still seems too high by 3 or 4 places.)

Head scratchers:

Notre Dame (pvs. #23) beats MSU, and drops out of your poll. I agree that if MSU is bad and they only win by 3 at home, maybe they should be penalized.* BUT, this assumes that MSU is bad. (Maybe they are, but bear with me.) MSU lost to CMU on some last second heroics. It is possible that Central crapped their pants (metaphorically speaking) against Arizona, and is really a decent team. Maybe not "contender in the Big Ten" decent, but certainly a team scrappy enough to go close to .500 if they were in the Big ten, that will probably challenge for the MAC title. This analysis supposes that Notre Dame is, therefore, about as good as Central, or even worse(!) as they only beat MSU by 3 at HOME instead of by 2 in East Lansing.

*A computer poll wouldn't penalize them as margin of victory is not an allowed perameter.

UCLA (pvs. #17) wins 23-9 against a Big 12 team and drops out? Did beating Tennessee get that much less impressive?

Kansas? They just beat Duke. Before that fell UTEP and Northern Colorado...I'm not impressed.

I purposefully avoid Michigan for two reasons. (1) I think you generally have this one right. Possibly Michigan could move up a spot or 2. At most. (2) I don't want you to win the "home cookin'" award for the week.

Plegerize

September 21st, 2009 at 6:28 PM ^

FSU I think is somewhat high as well. They lost to a good Miami (yes... that Miami) team at home, but also remember they struggled playing an FCS opponent in Jacksonville State and only beat them 19-9 by scoring 12 points in the 4th quarter.

I'll give them blowing out BYU at BYU, but to rank them above Oklahoma AND BYU seems a bit off.

Tim

September 21st, 2009 at 6:48 PM ^

"I'm also of the belief that you can't have a resume ranking at this point in the year without taking preconceived notions (i.e., preseason and early season rankings) of teams into account."

Yes, this early in the season, one has to take preconceived notions into account, which I'm doing at this point. Hopefully soon, I'll be able to go strict resume.

Also, why the hell is everyone complaining about USC being below Ohio State? Uh, they're not.

mstier

September 21st, 2009 at 7:07 PM ^

A few notes:

1.) Florida should be #1 in my opinion. They've given up 1 touchdown on the SEASON. So they didn't blow the doors off of Tennessee. Big deal. I don't see any reason they shouldn't convincingly be #1. Also, a few of their starters (Demps comes to mind) were sick with high fevers when they played Tennessee. I think the expectations people have for Florida are unrealistic (i.e. absolutely dominating every game), but that doesn't mean they aren't extremely impressive.

2.) Miami has been impressive, but lets see how they fare against Virginia Tech and Oklahoma before putting them in the top five. That said, if they win both of those games, putting them at #2 or even #1 seems appropriate.

3.) Houston is way too high. There always seems to be a team every year that pulls one big upset and spikes way high up in the polls (ECU last year, USF the year before, etc.). They don't deserve that ranking, and will almost assuredly lose it when they lose to some god awful team in the next few weeks.

4.) Iowa...really?

5.) How are Georgia and Oklahoma ranked so low? I know defense seemed to be a problem for Georgia, but they were very proficient on offense last week. Same with Oklahoma. I see both of those teams in the 10-20 range.

BlueinLansing

September 21st, 2009 at 7:08 PM ^

Not sold on Miami, true they beat FSU and GT, two "ranked" teams but that same FSU barely beat Jacksonville State a week later before going out West and thrashing BYU in a surprise score.

BYU has already been explained, I like them, but OU beats them with Bradford. Thus makeing the FSU thrashing less impressive.

FSU's resume is lost to good Miami team, played poorly and barely beat a bad 1-AA team and thrashed a BCS pretender. Top 10 material?

Ole Miss ~ I'm just not seeing what others are seeing here. They've beaten Memphis and SE Louisiana. I think they're getting a lot of credit for their finish last season against 4 meh teams, a even more meh LSU by LSU standards and Texas Tech.

They get the Gamecocks this week who they actually managed to lose to last year early in the season. Might not really know about the Rebs until Alabama comes calling in 3 weeks.

wishitwas97

September 21st, 2009 at 8:24 PM ^

of FSU struggling against Jacksonville State is they are coming off a emotional rivalry game against Miami. Since they lost, letdowns are inevitable. Remember that they are college kids, not professional athletes.

FSU showed that Jacksonville State game is an aberration by blasting BYU who is a possible BCS buster who also beat up Oklahoma pretty good.

Jeff

September 21st, 2009 at 7:15 PM ^

First I would move Cincinnati up to #5 or #6 (Cal would be the other spot). They have 2 road wins against what will probably wind up being average to aboverage BCS schools.

Second I would drop Missippi below Boise State and probably Penn State. Ole Miss has 2 wins against nobody. Boise State has 1 good win and Penn State has 2 wins against nobody AND a win against a BCS school that has a win over a BCS school. IE a slightly more than nobody team.

In fact, put Houston 9 and Ole Miss 10. All of my comments are making the assumption that you're resume ranking but the Rebels have done NOTHING up to this point in time.

LSU should be above Kansas. Washington may not be terrible (at this point we have to assume it's a possibility) and Vanderbilt is at least as good as Duke.

Georgia Tech (unfortunately) needs to be lower. Their offense has not looked good this year. They have one good win (in which their offense disappeared for almost the whole game) and one pretty bad beatdown.

UCLA should probably be ranked. They have beaten two BCS schools with one being a road game.

ERich79

September 21st, 2009 at 8:18 PM ^

Florida should be number 1 because I don't see any team really that can beat them with all their speed on both sides of the ball. Michigan is in the right spot for now but if they are undefeated going in the Penn State game they deserve to be in the top 15. Other than that everything looks good maybe a few teams could be moved up like Cincy.

wiscwood

September 21st, 2009 at 8:37 PM ^

These polls are fun to talk about in week three. Polls should come out in week 4 or week 5. You get the non conference games and some of the conference ones. There would be a better gauge for what sorts out. Coaches have another way of measuring teams. Respect them all! Polls are for media companies to get people to watch various games. How do know you want to watch a game? Team X is ranked #5, team y is ranked #3. Oh that game will be good! I thought the Michigan/ND game was far better than the USC/OSU game. Rankings right now, phooey! Too many changes.

MaximumSam

September 22nd, 2009 at 12:34 PM ^

Washington deserves some love. They beat USC and gave LSU all they wanted and significantly outgained them. Why shouldn't they be in over teams like FSU, BYU, Georgia Tech, OSU, USC, and various other team with 2-1 records?

iloveyellow

September 22nd, 2009 at 6:54 PM ^

I understand the early season volatility of a poll like this, and I know that you're trying to be as open-minded as possible because preseason polls are garbage methodology, but you should at least be consistent in how you move teams up and down. I don't really see why Ole Miss and Kansas move up a third of the poll when they neither beat a good team last week nor have any solid wins yet, especially when a team like Florida moves down the last few weeks for doing the exact same thing. I understand you have to give priority to teams with zero losses, but a loss doesn't mean a team isn't still very talented (FSU, OSU, VT), and not playing a tough early schedule isn't indicative of weakness. Pretty good overall though