Blogpoll Ballot Week 6

Submitted by Brian on October 3rd, 2011 at 9:42 AM

This week's shot in the somewhat-less-dark:

This was a week of extreme carnage in the middle of the poll. South Carolina, Florida, Nebraska, VT, South Florida, Baylor, A&M, and FSU all lost. What to do?

Most extreme punishment. I've been waiting for an excuse to pummel South Carolina and their completely dysfunctional QB situation. Virginia Tech was impotent against Clemson and was vulnerable to a big drop since haven't beaten anyone and weren't competitive with the one team they did play. Baylor's marquee win took a big hit with TCU's loss to SMU and they lost themselves. A&M and FSU both take second losses and don't have any quality victories.

I forgive somewhat. Nebraska's win over Washington helps prop them up. Florida beat Tennessee pretty badly. South Florida has a buoying win over Notre Dame. There's a Pitt > USF > ND > Pitt circle here that USF wins by virtue of not having a second loss.

Wild swings. Auburn returns to the poll at #11 after not being ranked last week. They pick up a quality road win and that Clemson loss looks increasingly understandable. Even the Utah State near escape looks better now that the Aggies are outgaining everyone and losing painfully.

Michigan State and Arkansas also enter high up because who else am I going to put there?

I love you, Paul Johnson. I am probably too enthusiastic about Georgia Tech, but they're undefeated, have wins against three BCS opponents, and are tearing people up on the ground. They're three terrible BCS opponents, granted, but at this point in the season Michigan is on the edge of the top ten in the major polls… warts are everywhere. Quality wins are thin on the ground.

West Virginia drop. Competition based; they're running in place as others pick up quality-ish wins. Maryland no longer counts for them.

Side note. People were right when I didn't ding Wisconsin for playing no one last week. Will try to be better about things in the future.

Michigan. I'm still hesitant about them; Illinois has a better win with Arizona State, Auburn with @ South Carolina, and Texas is debatable since Iowa State did beat Iowa and the Longhorns crushed them—Michigan scraped by ND. Nebraska is debatable, too, but let's chalk it up to the last two years. Still a little bit of projection in these rankings.

Comments

will

October 3rd, 2011 at 9:52 AM ^

Nebraska lost to wisconsin. Washington beat Utah. Not sure where nebraska beating washington was supposed to be going?

edit: nevermind - realize you are talking about the game from 3 weeks ago now.

Needs

October 3rd, 2011 at 9:58 AM ^

On the dinging for not playing anyone, I know Stanford was your preseason #1, but look at Stanford's schedule so far... SJSU, Duke, @ Arizona, UCLA. They don't really play anyone decent until Washington in three weeks (unless we now believe that Wazzou's moved to decent). From there on it gets much more difficult, including the big showdown against Oregon, but for now, don't they have to drop below Clemson, Boise and Okie State, at least?

Though Okie State's big comeback win looks less impressive today after Arkansas shermaned (as in Mike) aTm in much the same was as Okie state did.

JeffDC

October 3rd, 2011 at 10:09 AM ^

They have not put anyone away, even the bad teams on their schedule.  South Carolina should have had a shot at a tying field goal if not for bad call with the clock and refusal to review.  Not saying they don't deserve to be ranked, but no way should they be above any undefeateds in the 10-15 range.

MI Expat NY

October 3rd, 2011 at 10:24 AM ^

And Brian's over-valuing Utah St.  They're 1-3 with a loss to Colorado St. who is the first team in history to lose to both Colorado and San Jose St. in their first 5 games (probably).  

Auburn has barely beaten Utah St., an overrated Miss. St. and a South Carolina team that has just been beggint to lose.  They're not very good, and certainly don't have the resume to jump any undefeated teams.  In the end, it doesn't really matter.  Auburn is going to lose 3-5 of their last 7.

jlcoleman71

October 3rd, 2011 at 10:30 AM ^

is as reasonable as all other rankings outside of the top 10........they're undeated and have beaten ND, SDSU, MN and a decent WMU team.

All of the #11+ teams have problems of some kind, so you have to start factoring in who is trending positive or negative. I'd like to think that Michigan is trending positive........the offense looked effecient and the defense looks like they're starting to stabilize with some depth.

I was so glad to see S Carolina and VA Tech lose.............no way did they deserve to be ranked as high as they were.

Retnep

October 3rd, 2011 at 10:35 AM ^

Looks like Michigan is getting dinged because their game film is actually broken down frame by frame and we see the weaknesses of the team. However, it is extremely hard for me to believe that a person can look at Illiniois game film and come away thinking that they are a better team than Michigan. 

BradP

October 3rd, 2011 at 10:35 AM ^

The Illinois hype is really building up, and  I have been kinda frustrated reading Yahoo Sports since Friday.  I was expecting to see some Michigan conference hype with Mich looking like world beaters and Nebraska getting stomped.  All Yahoo said about Michigan is that they, along with Michigan State, can play some defense (how they can determine that with the opponents they faced is beyond me).

Instead all I see is Illinois, and I just don't get it.  The NW team Illinois came from behind to beat by 3 lost to Army by a touchdown last week.  And while I didn't see the game, judging Illinois's performance against ASU from the box score makes me think that they won a fluke in a game they were getting beaten in:  ASU got more first downs, 120 more yards, and held Illinois to 2.3 YPC.  Illinois also survived a scare against Western Michigan and averaged only 2.2 against a NW defense that gave up 380 against Army.

Michigan dominated the West. Mich that only lost by three to Illinois, and even if the ND game had a fluky feel to it, ND has established their quality and Michigan gained 450 yards whereas Illinois managed next to nothing against ASU.

Michigan's resume definitely looks better than Illinois, and Illinois has done nothing this year to make me think they have made it over the hump from mediocre team with promise to a good team.

 

ND Sux

October 3rd, 2011 at 10:55 AM ^

I love our chances against NW and Illinois, even with both games on the road. 

Nebraska looks VERY tough to me.  I would not be a bit surprised to see them in the BCS Championship game.  Something has to give in the SEC.  Alabama and LSU can't both go undefeated because one has to lose in the SEC championship.  I could see Wisconsin vs. the SEC champ for all the marbles, or perhaps Oklahoma. 

Looking forward to watching Wisconsin FUCK-STOMP Ohio. 

NorthSideBlueFan

October 3rd, 2011 at 11:10 AM ^

I watched the majority of it and if not for 2-3 missed FG in the first half and a screwed up two minute drill the Broncos would have won IN CHAMPAIGN. Not quite sure what all the ILL love is all about either...

This poll reads like a textbook Bill Simmons "reverse jinx" scenario the way it is overvaluaing our upcoming opponents.

BradP

October 3rd, 2011 at 11:32 AM ^

Dan Persa went 10-14 for 123 yds and ended with -3 yards rushing with a long of 7.  It was his first game back from a prolonged injury, and he didn't exactly set the world on fire.  He is still hampered, split time with the backup, and doesn't appear to bring any running presense yet.

Plus Army turned around and got beat 48-21 by Ball State.

BradP

October 3rd, 2011 at 12:16 PM ^

Outside of the 39yd TD that I mentioned already, they were TD passes of 3, 4, and 6 yards after drives that were primarily running drives.

Dan Persa without his legs, as he seems to still be very limited injury, very well may not the best QB we will have seen.  And if you count the supporting cast, he doesn't scare me any more than Carder, Rees, or Lindley.

chunkums

October 3rd, 2011 at 10:58 AM ^

MSU going from unranked to 17 based on what we saw this weekend seems a bit much.  While I'm sure OSU will get better when the tat 4 returns, they look like a team who might not even make a bowl game at this point, as their offense is 2008 Michigan-esque.  MSU barely squeaked by a that team, and got stomped by the only good competition they've played.

UMichmike

October 3rd, 2011 at 11:06 AM ^

The only team they've played that will finish ranked at the end of the season, abused them.  Cousins looked horrible vs the worst OSU team in 15 years....minus 4 of their starters.  BTW..Brady Hoke was a good choice Brian.  Yes, defense and ability to pound the rock and control the clock a bit works in the Big Ten...who would have thought? 

Yinka Double Dare

October 3rd, 2011 at 12:06 PM ^

Their ballot is a computer algorithm with no input of any preseason or previous-year data.  I think we've been #4 on their ballot since the EMU victory, theirs is based mainly on margin of victory and a schedule strength calculation based solely on this year's results.  Western has won some games handily and stayed close with an undefeated Illinois team, Notre Dame keeps winning after the Michigan loss, SDSU is 3-0 against other teams, these are all helping the rank in their poll.

Logan88

October 3rd, 2011 at 11:11 AM ^

I'm glad to see Brian dropped out FSU and TAMU, they have done nothing to deserve to stay in the polls (they are still ranked in both "real" polls IIRC) but very disappointed to see the horrible overreaction to Auburn's win. From unranked to 11th because of a win over a "meh" S. Carolina squad? Really?

Question: how much dirt does Stephen Garcia have on Spurrier for him to keep getting reinstated and starting(!) even though he sucks harder than a Hoover?

snowcrash

October 3rd, 2011 at 11:14 AM ^

I think USF loses the USF-ND-Pitt circle because they were blown out and the other two games were squeakers. Speaking of squeakers, I don't think that Pitt and ND should be punished for losing road squeakers to Iowa and Michigan when USF's next best win is UTEP. ND is probably the most underrated (!) team in the country right now.

 

Needs

October 3rd, 2011 at 11:41 AM ^

They deserve a little more love than 23rd. Sure Miami's not great (lol @ OSU) and they beat Baylor at home, but they're still 4-0 and have two better wins than about 1/3 of the teams ahead of them.