Big Ten Tournament Preview: Purdue
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
#25 Michigan (21-11, 10-8 B1G) vs #14 Purdue (25-6, 14-4) |
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WHERE |
A Half-Full Arena Washington DC |
WHEN | Noon ET, Friday |
LINE |
Purdue -2 (KenPom) Purdue -2.5 (Vegas) |
TV |
ESPN PBP: Dave Flemming Analyst: Dan Dakich |
Right: Purdue couldn't hang with Michigan on Senior Day. [Bryan Fuller]
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THE US
If you missed it, the Illinois recap is here.
Michigan's normal uniforms may still be on the crashed plane, so it's looking like they'll be outfitted in their practice jerseys again tomorrow:
John Beilein on if Michigan has to continue in the practice uniforms: "We have washers and dryers in Washington D.C. We'll get it done."
— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) March 9, 2017
I'm all for wearing these the rest of the tourney regardless of the availability of the regular uniforms.
THE LAST TIME
The lone matchup between these teams in the regular season came on Senior Day at Crisler. The battle of the big men took center stage, and Michigan won it with authority despite an 18-point evening by Caleb Swanigan. Michigan's five-out offense forced Swanigan into an uncomfortable role on defense; Moe Wagner scored 24 points in 27 minutes, going 4-for-8 from beyond the arc. Isaac Haas, meanwhile, was forced to sit for most of the game because Michigan could exploit him and Swanigan in space to the point that Purdue was forced into switching on every screen.
Derrick Walton, Duncan Robinson, and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman also finished in double figures for Michigan. Purdue got a strong boost from freshman wing Carsen Edwards, who was benched heading into the game in favor of Ryan Cline; Edwards scored 18, the only time in the last six games he's posted double-digit points.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
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G | 11 | PJ Thompson | Jr. | 5'10, 185 | 70 | 12 | 130 | Not At All | |||||||||||
Very efficient, low-usage PG. Majority of shots are threes. Strong defender. First matchup: 27 mins, 7 pts (3/4 2P, 0/1 3P), 2 reb, 1 to |
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G | 14 | Ryan Cline | So. | 6'5, 190 | 46 | 12 | 120 | Not At All | |||||||||||
Just A Shooter™, makes 41% of his threes. First matchup: 26 mins, 2 pts (1/2 2P, 0/2 3P), 3 reb, 1 ast, 1 stl |
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G | 31 | Dakota Mathias | Jr. | 6'4, 200 | 77 | 15 | 125 | Not At All | |||||||||||
Three-point sniper is 2nd B1G in eFG%. Good assist rate but has turnover issues. First machup: 31 mins, 4 pts (2/4 2P, 0/2 3P), 4 reb (1 off), 2 ast, 1 stl |
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F | 12 | Vincent Edwards | Jr. | 6'8, 225 | 71 | 21 | 120 | Not At All | |||||||||||
Does a bit of everything on offense, good defender. First matchup: 38 mins, 13 pts (5/9 2P, 0/1 3P), 5 reb (2 off), 3 ast, 1 to, 1 blk, 1 stl |
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F | 50 | Caleb Swanigan | So. | 6'9, 250 | 79 | 28 | 115 | Not At All | |||||||||||
NPOY candidate. Beast in post, three-point range, great rebounder. First matchup: 31 mins, 18 pts (7/8 2P, 1/3 3P), 5 reb (2 off), 5 to |
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C | 44 | Isaac Haas | Jr. | 7'2, 290 | 49 | 30 | 106 | Very | |||||||||||
Behemoth. Strong post scorer, rebounder, shot-blocker. First matchup: 11 mins, 8 pts (4/10 2P), 6 reb (3 off), 1 to |
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G | 3 | Carsen Edwards | Fr. | 6'0, 190 | 58 | 25 | 94 | No | |||||||||||
Solid outside shooter, poor finisher. Can be turnover-prone. First matchup: 24 mins, 18 pts (3/8 2P, 4/6 3P), 4 reb (2 off), 1 ast, 2 to, 1 stl |
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G | 55 | Spike Albrecht | Sr. | 6'0, 180 | 25 | 10 | 115 | Yes* | |||||||||||
Still not right after hip stuff. Tiny usage, only 5-for-24 on threes this year. First matchup: 12 mins, 0 pts (0/1 3P), 2 ast |
*Man, that still hurts to type.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Purdue won its final two conference games, at home against Indiana and at Northwestern, after the Michigan loss to secure an outright Big Ten title. Matt Painter has stuck with the lineup change he made heading into the game at Crisler, inserting 41% three-point shooter (and Just A Shooter™) Ryan Cline into the starting lineup to replace enigmatic freshman Carsen Edwards. While Edwards had the superior performance against Michigan, Cline has started and played more minutes since; neither produced much in the last two games.
The rest of this section has been modified/updated from the first preview:
Dominant is a fitting description for star big man Caleb Swanigan. The sophomore logs a huge minute total for a post player, a hidden source of great value at a position that often sees a major dropoff to the backup. (Michigan fans nod knowingly.) He's one of the country's best rebounders. He's shooting 53/42/82 (2P%/3P%/FT%) with a free throw rate just shy of 50 in Big Ten games. He's a solid passer out of the post, albeit prone to turning it over on occasion. While Swanigan scored with great efficiency when he got shots up in the first game, double-teams and pesky defense from Wagner caused him to commit five turnovers. Michigan doubled frequently against Illinois big man Maverick Morgan today with great success; they probably don't need to adjust too much, even though Swanigan is obviously a far superior player.
7'2", 290-pound center/kaiju Isaac Haas, who comes off the bench but plays about half of Purdue's minutes, was rendered effectively unplayable by Michigan's five-out offensive attack in the game at Crisler. Haas eats up an even higher percentage of possessions than Swanigan and does so with impressive efficiency for a post-only player; he makes 58% of his shots, all two-pointers, draws a ton of fouls, and hits 72% of his free throws. As you'd expect, he's a force on the boards and as a rim protector. Turnovers and defending in space are his primary weaknesses. He needs to be ruthlessly efficient in the post to be able to stay on the floor because of the outside shooting of Michigan's big men; he wasn't up to the task the first time around, but he also missed some shots he normally makes.
The biggest difference between last year's Boilermakers and this year's squad is three-point shooting; they're fifth nationally with a 40.6% mark from beyond the arc, a figure that's held steady through conference play. Swanigan isn't a frequent outside shooter, but he hits at a 45% clip. Guard Dakota Mathias is at 48% on a high rate of attempts; Michigan must run him off the line, as he's prone to coughing up the ball when he has to put it on the deck. Forward Vincent Edwards is a 42% three-point shooter who adds a whole lot more than that: he's a decent inside scorer, an excellent free-throw shooter, a willing passer, strong on the offensive glass, and a good defender.
Point guard PJ Thompson has the best ORating in the conference, though that's largely a product of his low usage rate. Once the ball gets into the post, Thompson mostly serves as a spot-up shooter, and he's making 40% of his threes. His primary contribution comes on the other end of the court, where he's an excellent on-ball defender. Thompson's backup is one Spike Albrecht, who hasn't returned to form since the dual hip surgeries; on very low usage, his turnover rate surpasses his assist rate and he's made only 5-of-24 three-point attempts this season.
Freshman Carsen Edwards is the weak spot offensively. He's not quite up to the shooting standards of the other guards at 34% on three-pointers, and while he creates a decent number of looks, he shoots only 41% on twos. Despite being their least efficient scorer among the main options, he takes the highest percentage of the team's shots when he's on the floor.
Guard Ryan Cline gives Purdue another 40%+ three-point shooter. He's a Just A Shooter™ type.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference-only stats.
Purdue's offense finished second only to Michigan's in the Big Ten due to their combination of strong post scoring and league-best three-point and free-throw percentages. They're held back a bit by turnovers and surprisingly mediocre offensive rebounding, but this is still a dangerous offense.
The Boilermakers eschew going for turnovers in favor of avoiding fouls, cleaning the glass, and preventing open looks from beyond the arc; they're first in the Big Ten in the former two categories and second in the latter. Perimeter defense is their strength; they're surprisingly bad at blocking shots (13th in B1G) for a team with Literally Godzilla playing half their minutes. By avoiding fouls, closing out strong on threes, and allowing few second-chance points, they force opponents to make do with relatively inefficient shots.
THE KEYS
Avoid foul trouble. Michigan can win this game with Moe Wagner and DJ Wilson using their quickness to make the Haas/Swanigan matchup a mismatch for both teams. The outlook gets a whole lot worse if John Beilein is trying to keep the team afloat with Mark Donnal and Zak Irvin taking those matchups. Sometimes it's best to concede the easy two and live to see the end of the game; the importance of Wagner and Wilson not taking unnecessary fouls is hard to overstate. (I didn't change one word of this from the first preview. Yes, I was quite proud of it.)
Crisp rotations. Swanigan and Haas are probably going to draw the occasional double team as Michigan looks to stop them in the paint and create some turnovers, but Purdue's outside shooting makes that a risky tactic. The onus falls on the guards to communicate, rotate, and at least force the bigs to make difficult skip passes when they're trying to escape the double. Leaving the guards open isn't an option unless—man, this is weird to type—that guard is Spike Albrecht. (Ditto. Purdue went 5-for-16 from beyond the arc at Crisler, and four of those makes were relatively difficult shots by Carsen Edwards, who's a 35% three-point shooter.)
Irvin in control. Michigan got Good Irvin against Illinois. After his brutally bad stretch with 13 points in four games, he's had double-digit points in six of the last seven—with the exception being Purdue, when he limited himself to eight FGAs and played good defense. Irvin has played within himself of late, mostly passing up heroball looks in favor of letting the offense come to him, whether on spot-up looks or pulling up for his favorite shot moving left-to-right off a high screen. When he's doing that, this is a really tough team to stop.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Purdue by 2.
Matt Painter has had five full days to figure out a way to defend Michigan, while the Wolverines are coming off an emotionally exhausting couple days. This could be the continuation of a remarkable run if Michigan has the juice, but it's impossible to know if the travel insanity will catch up to them; meanwhile, Purdue is still a very good team, and they're rested.
That's the German 3
The fact they beat Illinois after the craziness of the past 48 hours is enough for me. Given the short bench and how tired these players must be, I wouldn't be surprised if they lost and, since they are locked in at #8/9 in most brackets, I wouldn't be heart-broken if they didn't play 4 games in 4 nights.
Still, this isn't a bad matchup for Michigan, and if they get past Purdue they would probably be the favorites to win it all.
Even if they get past Purdue, I think the tired legs cut us off at some point.
March 10th, 2017 at 12:02 AM ^
They are not winning the National Championship man!
The lowest seed to win the NCAA tournament was (8) Villanova in 1985.
The latest Bracketology has Michigan as a 9.
In a literal sense, crazier things have not happened. Hope this helped.
March 10th, 2017 at 10:12 AM ^
I think we're no worse than an 8 seed once it all shakes out.
continue from the game a couple weeks ago.
I imagine Purdue will come out with Vince Edwards on Wagner and switch frequently, daring Michigan to either emphasize getting him post touches (which we don't typically like to do) or feature DJ more as the pick and roll partner with Walton. Painter is going to try to hide Swanigan on defense and we're going to want to go at him as much as possible.
On the other end, I like the way we're defending threes lately and expect us to pick and choose with the doubles but otherwise let Mo and DJ go it alone and hope Swanigan and Haas don't catch fire or get our guys in foul trouble. If so, we'll have to get creative or keep pace in a shootout.
and I think we will, but I'll still applaud Spike when he does something good. I miss having him in a Michigan uniform.
March 10th, 2017 at 10:32 AM ^
I will too. I was sure they'd miss Spike this year on the floor and in the locker room. During the first half of B1G play, before DWalt's awakening and when X was struggling, I was positive. Now, I think it all worked out for the best for both sides. Hopefully, he gets to go off in one more NCAA tourney game (or a half of one).
March 10th, 2017 at 12:30 AM ^
Painter will continue to switch everything in this game like they did in the 2nd half of the first game. It has led to some favorable situations for Michigan with a big trying to guard Walton on the perimter. Not to mention, we have yet to really exploit having Wagner be on the post against an undersized guard. Will need to get that going.
Wagner had a pretty meh game offensively against Illinois. Will need him to get going against Purdue and of course going forward into the tournament, although teams have been game planning specifically against him which opens up other stuff for the rest of the offense.
March 10th, 2017 at 12:35 AM ^
You sure?
*sigh*
by far
March 10th, 2017 at 10:06 AM ^
March 10th, 2017 at 10:16 AM ^
has a few stories along the way
March 10th, 2017 at 10:13 AM ^
continuing to play in the practice gear (MAAR's pink Jordans included), but how is it that Nike hasn't rushed another set of uniforms to the team by now?
March 10th, 2017 at 12:36 PM ^
They will win this tournament. This game against Purdue is the biggest game of the year for Michigan so far, by far.
March 11th, 2017 at 11:08 AM ^
The MN game doesn't worry me much, decent officiating we would have easily taken them in their barn, but the WS/NW match up might be the toughest game we play in the tourny.
That heartbreaker against the wildcats might have the boys feeling snake bit and I think WS is a tough match up.
GO BLUE
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