The BCS Scenario Shotgun Comment Count

Brian December 4th, 2011 at 12:26 PM


You have no idea how long it took to find a Sugar Bowl image without a corporate logo. Thanks to the Bentley Library.

After last night's events one thing is clear: nothing is clear. Oklahoma State's case for the national title game will come down to winning 40% of the hearts and minds out there and Michigan's destination hinges on that decision. That Sugar vs Houston thing is ancient history.

But we can make some educated guesses. Everyone expects Michigan to crack the top 14. Oklahoma and Houston are projected to drop behind Michigan and according to Palm, MSU's awful computer rankings (average of 20.75) mean they'd have to stay two spots in front of M in the polls to stay in front of them in the BCS. That's not happening. So don't worry. M is in.

[UPDATE: Michigan is 12th in the coaches poll, ahead of MSU. They are in. Oklahoma State got only 13 of 59 second place votes—insane—and it looks like the Fiesta Sugar vs. Somebody.]

Nobody expects TCU to crack the top 16 and earn the non-AQ autobid available to a conference champion ranked above the BE winner. They're out; the available pool of teams once Oregon, LSU, and Clemson are removed from the equation:

  • Maybe Alabama
  • Stanford
  • Boise State
  • Kansas State/Baylor/OU
  • Virginia Tech
  • Michigan
  • WVU

There are two worlds. One in which the rematch happens and one in which it doesn't. Those worlds should be addressed separately.

Alabama in title game

This is the scenario we've been dealing with so far. The Sugar loses the SEC champ. Okie State is locked into the Fiesta. The Sugar picks Michigan first from the motley crew above. The Fiesta grabs the next-most attractive team, which everyone thinks is Stanford, and then it's the Sugar's turn again.

The Sugar Bowl spends several minutes punching itself in the face and then… uh. Mandel says they pick Kansas State. So does Jerry Palm. Other possibilities are matching up RGIII against Denard (ay yai yai!), the Rodriguez Bowl versus WVU, or Boise State getting in because they're actually the best team available.



Your opinion of this will vary with your confidence Michigan can take out a Boise or a Stanford. If you think the chances of that are low, you love taking on a KSU team that can't pass and is in the BCS picture because they beat Texas with 120 yards of total offense. If you think Michigan's got a shot at one of the aforementioned teams, KSU is just Houston except a better matchup.

Oklahoma State in title game

Should sanity prevail—don't bet on it—the conventional wisdom assumes the Sugar takes two nanoseconds to snap up Alabama. The Fiesta then has the next two picks. From this The "BCS Guru" somehow arrives at… Michigan-Kansas State. We can't quit you, Manhattan.

I think that's an error on his part and we will see a Michigan-Stanford matchup in the scenario where the BCS does not condemn college football to a divisional rematch for the "national" title game.  That's what some random other website about the BCS has.


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All of that is classic, but "Spartans strengthen brand despite loss" is uber.



December 4th, 2011 at 4:00 PM ^

I love hearing sparty whine over the loss and getting leapfrogged by mich.  This is the inevitable result of the blowout they suffered at the hands of ND early in the season.  It wasn't reflected in the conference rankings, but it's about time it comes back to haunt them.


December 4th, 2011 at 4:22 PM ^

We knew Sparty was going to whine after this loss. They whined last year when they did not get into the Rose Bowl, but then they were blown out by Alabama. I will laugh so hard tears will stream down my cheeks if Sparty loses the Outback bowl.

Avant's Hands

December 4th, 2011 at 4:32 PM ^

I don't know if we would win, but I would like to play Boise. They aren't as good as they were last year and Kellen Moore has been more prone to turnovers while trying to force things. It would be a great opportunity to get a win over a legitimate top 10 team.


December 4th, 2011 at 5:14 PM ^

Right after the game - still in uniform and Little Brother is already thinking about Big Brother. That just cracks me up.
<br>Wah...waaaaahhh.....waaaaaahhhhh! Sparty is all concerned about respect and they're the main reason they have none. Grab a pacifier and tune to ESPN @ 8pm little Sparty, because Big Brother is taking the stage :-)


December 4th, 2011 at 6:00 PM ^

Take the loss like a man. Cousins you don't deserve to go so sit down. Wisky stole your only chance for a BCS berth. Also we are about to head down to NOLA and play Boise/Baylor/KSU/TCU. 


December 4th, 2011 at 6:11 PM ^

Per the twitters, Boise State appears to be the opponent in the Sugar Bowl.

Bryan Fischer

Boise in Sugar then, not TCU. RT : TCU not in BCS, instead headed to Poinsettia Bowl vs. Louisiana Tech
EDIT: Naturally, that's redacted after I post. We have about 6 possible opponents. 5 have been reported to not be in BCS and 6th is supposedly Orange-Bowl bound. This is as bad as trying to figure out the coaching search...


December 5th, 2011 at 2:28 AM ^

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