The BCS Scenario Shotgun Comment Count

Brian December 4th, 2011 at 12:26 PM


You have no idea how long it took to find a Sugar Bowl image without a corporate logo. Thanks to the Bentley Library.

After last night's events one thing is clear: nothing is clear. Oklahoma State's case for the national title game will come down to winning 40% of the hearts and minds out there and Michigan's destination hinges on that decision. That Sugar vs Houston thing is ancient history.

But we can make some educated guesses. Everyone expects Michigan to crack the top 14. Oklahoma and Houston are projected to drop behind Michigan and according to Palm, MSU's awful computer rankings (average of 20.75) mean they'd have to stay two spots in front of M in the polls to stay in front of them in the BCS. That's not happening. So don't worry. M is in.

[UPDATE: Michigan is 12th in the coaches poll, ahead of MSU. They are in. Oklahoma State got only 13 of 59 second place votes—insane—and it looks like the Fiesta Sugar vs. Somebody.]

Nobody expects TCU to crack the top 16 and earn the non-AQ autobid available to a conference champion ranked above the BE winner. They're out; the available pool of teams once Oregon, LSU, and Clemson are removed from the equation:

  • Maybe Alabama
  • Stanford
  • Boise State
  • Kansas State/Baylor/OU
  • Virginia Tech
  • Michigan
  • WVU

There are two worlds. One in which the rematch happens and one in which it doesn't. Those worlds should be addressed separately.

Alabama in title game

This is the scenario we've been dealing with so far. The Sugar loses the SEC champ. Okie State is locked into the Fiesta. The Sugar picks Michigan first from the motley crew above. The Fiesta grabs the next-most attractive team, which everyone thinks is Stanford, and then it's the Sugar's turn again.

The Sugar Bowl spends several minutes punching itself in the face and then… uh. Mandel says they pick Kansas State. So does Jerry Palm. Other possibilities are matching up RGIII against Denard (ay yai yai!), the Rodriguez Bowl versus WVU, or Boise State getting in because they're actually the best team available.



Your opinion of this will vary with your confidence Michigan can take out a Boise or a Stanford. If you think the chances of that are low, you love taking on a KSU team that can't pass and is in the BCS picture because they beat Texas with 120 yards of total offense. If you think Michigan's got a shot at one of the aforementioned teams, KSU is just Houston except a better matchup.

Oklahoma State in title game

Should sanity prevail—don't bet on it—the conventional wisdom assumes the Sugar takes two nanoseconds to snap up Alabama. The Fiesta then has the next two picks. From this The "BCS Guru" somehow arrives at… Michigan-Kansas State. We can't quit you, Manhattan.

I think that's an error on his part and we will see a Michigan-Stanford matchup in the scenario where the BCS does not condemn college football to a divisional rematch for the "national" title game.  That's what some random other website about the BCS has.


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All of that is classic, but "Spartans strengthen brand despite loss" is uber.



December 4th, 2011 at 12:33 PM ^

I agree, there is no way Fiesta passes on Stanford if OSU goes to MNC. There is FAR more Stanford fans within reasonable travel distance from Fiesta Bowl than KSU. AND the executive director for the Fiesta Bowl is a Stanford grad.

Michigan vs Stanford would be fun.


December 4th, 2011 at 12:35 PM ^

I would love playing baylor or stanford, great teams and would make for a great game. Though I feel like Okie St. might get the luck of the draw with the title game. After all the crazy ass sh*t that had gone on this year, I wouldnt be suprised if the voters just said "Fu*k it, lets screw these people." 

Lets hope im wrong


December 4th, 2011 at 12:36 PM ^

Sparty NOOOOO!!!

With that said...I do hope OSU gets to the title game...I would love a matchup with stanford. Yes they have luck but their skill position guys dont scare me to much and I'm not sure their D is good enough to slow us down to snails pace and keep us out of the endzone.

MI Expat NY

December 4th, 2011 at 12:52 PM ^

Stanford would give us a nice chance to see how far our defense has come.  I don't think there's much doubt that Wisconsin and their style gave us the most trouble last year.  Stanford would be the closest thing to that we've seen this year.  Would make for an interesting game.


December 4th, 2011 at 12:40 PM ^

you can't touch the punter unless you block the kick or tip the punt in some way. 

Lewis indisputably ran into the punter with his legs. Flag.

When it goes against him Dantonio has an opinion, but when his players are wringing the necks of opposing silence.

They should have just pressured Nortmann. There was plenty of time.

One of the dumbest plays I've seen.  Probably time to re-think Narduzzi's "60 minutes of unnecessary" dumbness.  It's way better to play smart.

Naked Bootlegger

December 4th, 2011 at 2:55 PM ^

Every punter flops, Coach D.   But your dude hit the punter.  The refs only called the garden variety running into the kicker penalty, not a personal foul.   5 yards.  You lose.  Why you rush the punter?

Flopping or no flopping, replays show the contact.   Coach D's sad sour grapes act only makes that play sweeter.   Actually, that play would've been even sweeter if Martin had scored a TD on the punt return, thus wiping out 6 points from the scoreboard.

Indiana Blue

December 4th, 2011 at 3:18 PM ^

The punter held his landing position (had his balance) and was hit.  Because he was NOT in the air and had regained his balance the penalty is "running into the kicker - 5 yards.  If the punter was still in the air (pay attention Nebraska fans) then contact would have been a personal foul - 15 yards.  There is a penalty here Dantonio  -  and he knows it.

The ONLY judgment is whether the punter was in the air or had regained his balance.

Go Blue!


December 4th, 2011 at 3:28 PM ^

A friend of mine on FB say it's not even really the guy's fault who ran into the's the dumbass coach Dantonio for calling him to go after the punt in the first place. Coach D, it's your own damn fault and you know it. 

I mean, you'd get the ball back with about 90 seconds left to drive down for a game-tieing field goal...why you take a risk like that is beyond me. Sparty, you deserve your Sparty No moment now and forever, and you have no one to blame but yourself for not getting to a BCS bowl. 


December 4th, 2011 at 12:42 PM ^

The Michigan State whining is quintessential Little Brother. I know it's not fair. I agree with them. But that doesn't mean I don't enjoy laughing at their misfortunes. Sometimes the older brother is more important. Sometimes he gets to do things the Little Brother doesn't, and he just has to put up with it.


December 4th, 2011 at 1:04 PM ^

If Michigan was in that position, we would hear "Its outside of our control," or "I'm proud of the way we played, we'll let it sort itself out." Because its MSU, we hear "Its not fair! Michigan getting in is bullshit! How do they get in when they didn't even play?!?!?!!?!?!?!?!" from MSU players. If thats not acting like a little brother, I don't know what is.

Red is Blue

December 4th, 2011 at 3:49 PM ^

I'm missing the logic (maybe because their isn't any) about how it is not fair.  They likely will be in the top 14 and thus could still be selected.  They were 13th going into the game, so if you follow what they want to do (don't count the folks who lost in a championship game), Houston and Oklahoma were the only teams ahead of them who lost.  Which would probably make them 11th.  Applying the same to M probably puts us at 14th.

So, how is it fair that the 11th BCS team gets selected when there are 10 spots available and 10 teams that are ranked higher?  Well, that's fair because the BCS rules don't allow for more than 2 teams per conference.  So how is it not fair that the BCS can follow their other rules an select at large teams from those in the top 14?




December 4th, 2011 at 12:47 PM ^

I'd like to face Stanford or Baylor, but I wouldnt mind K-State. K-State has been solid all year and they've been in some of the more exciting games. I think it'd be a good football game. As long as we don't magically get tossed into a match up against Bama (chances 0%), I feel confident about our chances.


December 4th, 2011 at 12:52 PM ^

How can anyone doubt that MSU strengthened their brand? Just like Florida St. did, with each "wide right" against Miami.

Maybe "Sparty Noooo...." isn't the brand name they'd prefer, but you've got to go with what you've got.

Chris of Dange…

December 4th, 2011 at 12:53 PM ^

...does OK State whine about not getting a fair shake compared to OU?

Oh, wait,   Bad anlogy.  They've got a nontrivial chance of making the BCSCG this year.  Nothing to see here, move along.


December 4th, 2011 at 12:54 PM ^

  Just to reflect quickly on the past season:


1)  Our nearly entirely brand new coaching staff has made this "Bo Who? Part II"

2)  Beat ND at home.  I mean, come on ... welcome back to being part of the discussion.  Bonus: kept the streak going.

3)  Blow away any rationale expectations of our final win tally

4)  Beat Ohio

5)  Sparty blames Michigan for their situation in football and life

6)  BCS bowl berth nearly locked


Ah ... smile.  It's good to feel good about our football squad again.


December 4th, 2011 at 12:56 PM ^

I like seeing the 420 sailboats on the Sugar Bowl program. I will be sailing in the Sugar Bowl regatta at the end of the year, so I'm rooting for the Alabama in the NCG scenario so I can stay a little longer and go to the football game too.


December 4th, 2011 at 12:57 PM ^

I think Boise is the most exciting match up.  I don't think they're unbeatable for us at all.  The team I want to play least (other than Bama) is Stanford.  Based only on them playing with ND and destroying them and us beating them at the last second.


December 4th, 2011 at 1:00 PM ^

This team played some great football this year. It was particular good to see the defense make plays. They've earned a good bowl experience.
<br>The practices and the chance to play another game matter. I hope it's a good game against a top opponent, but I'll take a blowout over Adolescent Seal U.
<br>The BCS doesn't matter, except to the money guys. Fuck 'em.
<br>As Hoke and Molk said yesterday, what Michigan should worry about is the Big Ten title. Everything after that will come or not come as luck decides.

Minus The Houma

December 4th, 2011 at 2:26 PM ^

"As Hoke and Molk said yesterday, what Michigan should worry about is the Big Ten title."

I'm sure Hoke would have loved to switch places with Michigan State for a chance for the B1G title. 

Cousins says "I don't know how you get punished for playing and someone else gets to sit on the couch and get what they want."

Hoke wanted that title.


December 4th, 2011 at 3:06 PM ^

Loser of the conference championship games typically gets screwed when it's bowl selection time.  Happens to every conference.  So what?  We will still sign up for that opportunity every year and take our chances.

MSU had their chance.  Almost pulled it off except for a classic Sparty lack of discipline.  What are they whining about?  

If they want, next year if they are in the same position, they can stay home on the couch and we'll go play for the championship.