If the last couple games are any indication, Franz Wagner has taken The Leap. This week's Basketbullets looks into his breakout last few games in great detail. Enjoy.

The Franzening Part I: The Defense

paint presence [Campredon]

Brian has already covered how Juwan Howard's offense-destroying strategy on Sunday night centered on Franz Wagner, not Hunter Dickinson, guarding Northwestern center Pete Nance, the 6'10" hub of their five-out offense. Once Howard got the pick-and-roll coverage right (it took three minutes, he's pretty good at this), Nance all but disappeared, scoring one basket after the opening four minutes with one assist and three turnovers.

Wagner erased Nance, snatched Miller Kopp's soul on multiple occasions, played sound all-around defense, and was the biggest factor in holding NW to their worst offensive performance of the season. He's growing into a two-end terror. To set the tone directly out of that first media timeout, he made a great pick-and-roll read to slide in front of a slipping Nance and steal an entry pass:

He's posting a steal rate above 2% for the second straight year; he's currently 20th in the Big Ten in that stat even though Michigan's defense focuses way more on contesting shots and avoiding fouls than trying to swipe the ball. A lot of that is because Wagner is simply too lanky not to get his hands on passes. His length is also causes trouble when he's the primary defender. This total shutdown of Miller Kopp wasn't recorded as a steal:

After flashing some shot-blocking ability as a freshman, Wagner is up to eighth in the Big Ten in block rate after his five-block night against the Wildcats. He's the rare inside-outside blocker. This is a beautiful weakside help stuff on NW's backup center:

Wagner helps off of Young after a seamless switch on this play, then steps out to block a pull-up jumper by Kopp, who's 6'7:

This block on Ty Berry is pure one-on-one dominance as he navigates an off-ball screen, stays with Berry through a pump-fake, and swats away a three so he can still collect the rebound:

Wagner isn't just making flashy plays. These are coming within the flow of the play. He's been nearly as productive on the defensive boards as Dickinson as a result. Wagner stays disciplined, doesn't try for unlikely blocks, and can go out of his area to pull in rebounds—an important part of his game when Dickinson is required to help at the rim:

The discipline also shows up in his defensive charting stats. Here's how opponents shoot when Wagner is the primary defender, according to Synergy, which unfortunately doesn't give me an option to flip the colors—red is good for Wagner and bad for the shooter:

34.5% around the rim! 8-for-24 on midrange shots! As for three-pointers, that good opponent mark (10-for-26) feels like bad luck outside of some early-season communication issues, and Wagner's doing a good job of dissuading those shots from going up at all. Synergy only hits him with responsibility for three unguarded jump shots all season and he's grading out "poorly" by allowing 4 of 11 guarded jumpers to go down.

He's shutting down either end of the pick-and-roll he's put in; ballhandlers are 4-for-19 with two turnovers against him and roll men are 1-for-5. He still seems to be getting better by the game. Meanwhile...

[Hit THE JUMP for oh right the offense is clicking too.]

The Franzening Part II: The Scoring

it's pouring buckets [Campredon]

Wagner's scoring uptick has been pronounced: after topping out at 14 points twice and other scoring in single digits in each of the opening six games of the season, he's posted 20, 19, and 14 points in the last three contests, respectively, while shooting a combined 14/20 on two-pointers and 7/19 from three (5/12 over the last two).

There are certain parts of his game we've come to expect or at least hoped would come along. The swooping finishes around the basket have always been a feature and we've long assumed his spot-up shooting would heat up. I'm actually gonna embed this one because the passing is pornographic:

Whew. Okay. What's getting me equally heated is how Juwan Howard has found ways to develop Wagner into a playmaker and scorer both in transition and the halfcourt. I almost jumped out of my chair early in the Maryland game when Dickinson set this screen on the fast break that let Wagner cut into a wide open three-pointer:

Michigan also runs that action in halfcourt sets—Dickinson screening down for Wagner to cut for a top of the key three—and it's a great way to get a quick, good look if the off-ball defense isn't fast to react. He's also hunting looks with off-ball motion more than in the past. He does an excellent job of relocating into space after an offensive rebound here to get another open look from beyond the arc:

He's also looking for his shot more early in the clock; this is a confident (yet patient!) transition three after that out-of-area defensive rebound I posted earlier. The more he's established as an outside shooting threat, the more he's going to be able to attack downhill. Or, evidently, drill pull-ups like this:

And this isn't even the most encouraging development in Wagner's offensive repertoire.

The Franzening Part III: The Passing

hard to stop a 6'10 guy from seeing his passing lane [Campredon]

Hooooooooooooooo buddy:

If that becomes a consistent thing, it's over for opponents. Wagner's been a decent scorer off the pick-and-roll and has been pretty unlucky this season with teammates not scoring off his passes, but he's really elevated his distributing in Big Ten play; his 19.4% assist rate ranks 20th in the conference and is an astonishing leap from his 6.8% mark from last season.

Here's a much simpler-looking P&R out of pistol action in which Wagner waits out the defense, lets the action bend the defense, and reads that the best play is passing to a spot-up shooter; Brown happily pays off the smart, easy play by draining a three. Here he doubles back around a handoff and kicks it out to a wide open Mike Smith for another triple.

Then there's the more advanced stuff Howard is drawing up. The way he's using Horns sets has been detailed here and on Matt's Twitter feed. These are some diabolical plays. Playing Brandon Johns at the four, putting Wagner in the corner, and having him cut to the top of the key in a way that sets up a high-low with Dickinson? Sure, that's pretty evil.

Running that same action against Northwestern except with Brooks popping out from the paint? Extra spicy.

Wagner has proven to be, in my opinion, the best entry passer on the team; his size helps a great deal there but he's also putting the ball in just the right place. That's a great asset when you've got Dickinson on the other end of those passes. A post-to-post feed in tight quarters? Sure.

Meanwhile, Howard still has a lot of room to explore Wagner as a post-up threat. So far he's been lethal, making all four of his post-up shots and producing four more points on passes, per Synergy. They must've filed this as an isolation possession or something:

That's Dickinson-esque.

Not only is Wagner passing the ball more and with better results, he's barely turning the ball over. His 8.5% turnover rate is 15th in the Big Ten and down five points from last year, which is a hell of a feat considering his increased usage in a variety of roles. He's had multiple turnovers in a game just once since a five-TO dud in the too-close-for-comfort second game against Oakland.

The Franzening Part IV: The Comps

I'm a little afraid to post these but, damn the sample sizes, they're too good not to put out there. I went through Bart Torvik's player stats database to look for comparisons among high-major players, because it's hard to come up with a good player comp for the way Wagner is currently playing. I used conference-only stats because we're trying to project this idealized version of Wagner instead of do a totally sound long-term comparison. It's more fun this way. I made an honest effort not to get too crazy with the parameters so I wouldn't cut out too many players; as you'll see, that didn't do much for me.

Let's start with the offense. In the T-Rank era, which dates back to 2008, only four players have posted the combination of a usage rate over 18%, an assist rate higher than 15%, a turnover rate lower than 10%, a two-point percentage better than 60%, and a three-point percentage above 30%. They're all playing this season, so this would be unprecedented if it survives to the end, and the three other players on the list are very much point guards:

Okay, now the defense. The parameters: >15% defensive rebound rate, >5% block rate, >2% steal rate in high-major conference play. This list at least includes a lot more players. When it automatically sorts by the best ones, though, you get a hell of a list... of dominant college big men and big NBA wings:

Anthony Davis, Zion Williamson, Tyler Zeller, Xavier Tillman, Terrence Jones, Trevor Booker, Jarrod Uthoff, Boogie Cousins, Okyeka Okongwu, Jordan Bell—this is nice company.

Let's put it together, within reason. (Or so I thought.) When you enter those same defensive parameters and add back in the requirements for assist rate and two-point percentage—but not turnover rate or three-point percentage—the beautiful stat machine spits out Wagner and three others:

The best years of Zion Williamson, Xavier Tillman, and Jordan Bell. That's the whole list, along with Franz Wagner.

Enjoy it while you can, folks.