Basketbullets: Irvin Breakout, Deadeye Dawkins, Post D Comment Count

Ace



Dustin Johnston/UMHoops

The result last night, and the fashion Michigan got there, was no doubt painful. Lost in the insanity and disappointment, however, were several encouraging signs for the future. Since Brian covered the coaching stuff in today's mailbag, my focus for today will mostly be on the bright side of life.

BUT FIRST, NIT OUTLOOK. So, yeah, that obviously wasn't ideal. DRatings updated their NIT bracketology today, putting Michigan as the second six-seed. A home win over Rutgers isn't likely to change much there (a loss would obviously be a huge blow), which puts Michigan perilously close to the edge:

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

DRatings currently has ten teams below Michigan projected to make the NIT field. Hold onto your butts.

ZAK IRVIN, EVOLVING. For much of the season, Zak Irvin has been a source of disappointment. If Caris LeVert was supposed to step into Nik Stauskas' shoes, Irvin was supposed to step into LeVert's, becoming this year's guy to add a ton to his game and set himself up for lead dog status/early entry discussion.

It didn't happen right away, but take a look at Irvin's last six games:

  Points 2PM/2PA 3PM/3PA FTM/FTA OR DR AST TO
Indiana 23 6/11 3/5 2/5 0 2 2 1
Illinois 8 1/5 2/7 0/0 1 7 1 1
MSU 16 3/7 3/7 1/3 0 3 0 1
OSU 15 3/5 3/7 0 1 6 4 0
Maryland 15 2/4 2/6 5/5 0 3 3 4
Northwestern 28 5/9 3/8 9/10 1 10 3 2
TOTAL (Avg.) 105 (17.5) 20/41 (49%) 16/40 (40%) 17/23 (74%) 3 (0.5) 31 (5.2) 13 (2.2) 9 (1.5)

Now think about this: Irvin didn't make more than three two-pointers in any game his freshman year—and he only did that twice—and other than the opener against D-II Hillsdale he hadn't made more than four this season until the Indiana game. He had five last night, mostly on NBA-level pullup looks that he generated with surprising ease:

Over the last month, Irvin has raised the bar from top-flight supporting player to potential go-to guy on a good team, and that's a huge step. He's developing moves that reliably get him to the basket—he's incorporating the shot fake, for instance, which is particularly effective given his shooting ability—and he's both finishing and getting to the line more often.

[Hit THE JUMP for more Irvin and a look at the development of three freshmen.]

Despite taking defenders off the dribble more often, he's managed to keep turnovers in check, and that becomes even more impressive when noting his uptick in assists. In the first 20 games of the season, he tallied three assists just once, against Coppin State. He's had three or more in five of the last nine games, including each of the last three. I'm not sure Irvin's had a better assist in his career than the pass he threaded between two defenders to Mark Donnal last night. His court vision has improved, and he's a more willing passer now that he's doing a lot more than just spotting up and firing away.

Irvin's also been much more active on the defensive boards, which could be an especially significant development if he's forced into a lot of action at the four again next year. What we've seen of Irvin recently indicates 2015-16 should be his breakout season.

PRONOUNCED WITH AN UMPTY. Also a welcome sight: Aubrey Dawkins splashing in 21 points on just 12 shot equivalents. The kid can flat out shoot; Dawkins is now fourth in the Big Ten in eFG%, behind only MSU sharpshooter Bryn Forbes among non-seven-footers. In the 11 games since the first Northwestern matchup, when Dawkins went scoreless in ten minutes, he's averaged 9.6 points in 33.4 minutes per game; that, of course, corresponds with LeVert's season-ending injury.

Unlike Irvin, Dawkins is still for the most part a one-dimensional player. His superior athleticism provides a lot of potential for a similar breakout, however, and he's already starting to show signs of rounding out his game:

I will never not be amazed that this dude's best offer was from Dayton, even after taking a prep year, before Michigan stepped in. There's always a place for an athletic wing who can shoot threes.

SADLY, FRESHMAN BIGS CAN'T PLAY 50 MINUTES. Seven-footer Alex Olah obliterated Michigan for the second time in as many games, scoring a career-high 25 points on 12/18 shooting. He had 22 on 9/12 FGs in the first matchup; notably, one in which Ricky Doyle barely played due to illness.

It wasn't hard to see who Olah had the toughest time against last night. While Doyle's defense may not have been great, he forced Olah to battle hard for position in the post. Olah went 8/14 with a turnover when Doyle was in the game—still a strong offensive performance, but not a killer one.

The killer is what happened when Doyle was on the bench. Olah went 2/2 from the field against both Max Bielfeldt and Mark Donnal, and those baskets came far too easy. Donnal hasn't developed the physicality to bang in the post with a center that size, and Bielfeldt is just too short to hide in that situation. Northwestern went right at those two as soon as they entered the game; they had a much tougher time forcing the ball into the post with Doyle on the floor. With post defense, off-ball denial is often just as valuable as on-ball defending, and that was evident last night.

ROLE FOR RAHK? Looking to next year, Muhammad-Ali Adbur-Rahkman's potential role is as up in the air as anyone's—he could easily end up coming off the bench, especially if LeVert returns. He may have carved out a role as a defensive stopper, however. His defense against D'Angelo Russell a couple weeks ago opened a lot of eyes, and he was solid again in his matchup against Tre Demps. Yes, Demps ended up being the hero, but he didn't get many easy looks against Rahk—he just happened to make a few absurd triples late in the game. Rahk's offense has been inconsistent, but that doesn't mean he's not making noticeable developments.

INBOUNDING. Frustrating as all hell, I know. For those asking why Michigan keeps using Spike Albrecht as the inbounder when he has such a hard time getting the ball in, Bielfeldt's ill-fated attempt at a baseball pass last night should stand as evidence Spike is the only real option. John Beilein said as much after the Illinois game—having the right inbounder is the top priority and there isn't another player he trusts yet:

"When they put a 6-10, active guy on the ball and you can't move, you're in a five count, you can't pass it backward and you have a guy on you," Beilein said. "Inbounder over action. We believe in getting the right action, and you have to have your best eyes (throwing it in). Muhammad hasn't had to do that a lot of times and he got into a little trouble. And then Spike got it. It was the same situation. There's not a lot you can do if guys aren't running the right routes, and we didn't run the right routes. We didn't do a lot of things right there.

This shouldn't be an issue next year with all the freshmen getting a year of experience; one of those guys, at least, should be able to pick up how to do this.

Comments

Lanknows

March 4th, 2015 at 3:31 PM ^

Irvin may actually take a step back in usage next year if LeVert and Walton are back, along with Robinson.

I can't tell if Irvin or Dawkins is more likely to be the '4' next year.  Dawkins is a little more GR3ish, Irvin a little more Novakian.  I'm not sure it matters, as both have the strength and size to be a Beilein 4 and their ability to make it rain is critical to what Beilein wants to do on offense.

DowntownLJB

March 4th, 2015 at 3:37 PM ^

since Beilein seems to treat them as mostly interchangeable, it'll probably matter more what the other team's 4 looks like in terms of best defensive matchup.  Also, per the roster, Robinson is 2" taller and same weight as Dawkins, so may get some time at the 4 (though I'm guessing without similar hops/quickness & who knows what kind of defender he is).  And then there's Wilson to work into the rotation - he may split time between 4/5 along with Doyle/Donnal.

Lanknows

March 4th, 2015 at 3:48 PM ^

I've wondered about Robinson at 4 as well, given his reported athletic limitations it may make sense.  I don't expect him to start (I know others disagree and expect another Stauskas), but he should be a key reserve behind both Dawkins and Irvin.  Beilein loves  shooters off the bench.

That shot block last night is why I think Dawkins is the best 4 candidate.  Irvin's the better rebounder, but Beilein has never asked his 4 to do much of that.  Also, Dawkins will presumably carry less offensive responsibility than Zak, so he can handle more physicality on D.

I expect Wilson to replace Bielfeldt in the Center rotation next year.  Center will remain the team's weakest position, and Beilein's never demonstrated serious interest in "going big" at the 4.  Wilson, Doyle, Donnal all bring a different skillset to the table. 

AZ-Blue

March 4th, 2015 at 3:39 PM ^

Jeezus - inbounding under pressure seems to be a struggle going on several years now.  How is it opposing teams make our inbounds appear painful and turnover prone while simultaneously making their own seem effortless?

 

 

M-Dog

March 5th, 2015 at 9:05 AM ^

It is puzzling.  Not just because we struggle with it, but also because how easy it is for other teams to do it against us.

How many times did you watch us struggle with it and then when it's the other team's turn to inbound you think "Now we'll give them a taste of their own medicine" . . . and then zip! they get it in right away on the first pass without even a fake.

When was the last time we got a turnover on an opponent's inbound?  

Not only are we bad at doing it, we're bad at defending it.

 

CLord

March 4th, 2015 at 3:44 PM ^

Love Coach B but what I wouldn't give to see the man recruit an athletic big man, McGary aside. Our 3 headed monster just isn't the answer right now.  Just one Branden Dawson type...

Honestly think if this team had it's rebounder it would be a force, even with an injury here or there.

 

Bergs

March 4th, 2015 at 4:20 PM ^

He does recruit athletic bigs, they just don't decide to come here. The youngest Plumlee, Amir Williams, Mitch McGary are 3 off the top of my head that he's gone after.



Haven't followed bball recruiting very closely over the past few years but I'd imagine he hasn't stopped going after athletic bigs. That said, his system isn't very appealing to guys with NBA potential because they aren't going to get a lot of post touches.

Shop Smart Sho…

March 4th, 2015 at 4:02 PM ^

"Bielfeldt's ill-fated attempt at a baseball pass last night should stand as evidence Spike is the only real option."



That sentence is so full of "feels" that I'm surprised the MGoServers allowed it to be published.



Spike is the only one who can do it because the PGs get the vast majority of the practice time on it.  Beilein gets a lot of slack because he is a great coach, but his insistance on Trey and now Spike being the primary inbounder is simply mind boggling.



Aside from pretty much ensuring that our best FT shooter doesn't get the ball in late game situations when the other team is fouling, it also means that no pass is going further than about the 3 point line because he doesn't have the arm or height to get it over or around a defender.

alum96

March 4th, 2015 at 4:20 PM ^

I realize Irvin was a 5 star but he was sort in that area where he was a low 5/high 4.  If this was 25 years ago Irvin would be very much on track for a great career but so muchis asked so early and guys who dont leave in2 years who are 4/5 stars are now deemed failures. 

It is going to be nice to have a featured player who is a SR on this team who has seen it all and is a borderline NBA type.  We have lacked those - guy like Izzo has made a career on those.

Irvin's shooting % this year is a disappointment - would like to see it nearer to 43-44% out of the guard sport but I did see him going to the hole much more than most gave him credit for mid year but he was just not finishing.  He is starting to finish now here in the last 4-5 games.  Will force teams to lay off him at the 3 a bit and just help.  Also he was nota guy who was expecting to get the opponent's best defender and even Caris struggled some early this year when getting that treatment.  With more balance next year it will only help Irvin's game - he basically has gone from Caris 2013-2014's role to Caris 2014-2015's role in 1 season.

Lanknows

March 4th, 2015 at 4:30 PM ^

If they are a featured offensive player or drawing the best defender.

Zak Irvin shot 37% on 3s in high school. There's almost zero chance he shoots 43% plus in college again unless his usage goes way down or Michigan gains a few unexpected NBA players onto it's roster.

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/zak-irvin/Vonl3PTnEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/gender…

If he can hit 40% next year that would be fantastic.

Lanknows

March 4th, 2015 at 4:24 PM ^

Is not very convincing, at least statistically. 

I don't know when Olah sat, but if Bielfeldt really held Olah to 2/2 over 14 minutes, that's better than the 8/12 against Doyle in 30 minutes.  It suggests Max did a better job denying the ball and/or good position to Olah.

All three centers are badly undersized relative to Olah, so the name of the game is ball denial and positioning... or being Aubrey Dawkins.

 

m1jjb00

March 4th, 2015 at 7:38 PM ^

Doyle was the best of the three on D but was by no means good on defense last night.

MAAR might have played well on d elsewhere, but Demps was his guy at the end, and that was kind of a big play.

Inbounding isn't a problem just b/c Spike is short.  There was one play on the sideline where eventually Spike called timeout.  I have no idea what the play being run was, but everybody just kind of ran into a clump.  On the one he threw out of bounds I gotta believe it was poorly run as a pass at that shallow of an angle is begging to go out of bounds.  And no, I don't think it's coaching.

What do all my observations/complaints have in common?  Freshmen.  Ugh.

Qmatic

March 4th, 2015 at 9:52 PM ^

PG: Walton, Spike

SG: Levert, MAAR, Spike

SF: Irvin, Dawkins, Robinson

PF: Chatman, Wilson, Robinson

C: Doyle, Wilson, Donnal, Bielfeldt(?)

If Levert comes back, we were at worst 11 deep. I'm very optimistic about next season.

mtlcarcajou

March 5th, 2015 at 2:07 PM ^

Can't agree with the post d entirely. Both Biefeldt and Doyle have pretty bad footwork that allows position for easy bank shots. Biefeldt isn't usually outdone by height, but quickness and positioning. 

Both of them are mediocre post defenders. Donnal is not a post player and can't be considered, even when his assignment call for it: weak physically, narrow stance, only used as a breather.

Neither Rawk nor Spike were good defending high screens: they trailed the ball right through overtime, no matter where on the court, allowing penetration and open looks. Those two 'prayer' 3's were not that miraculous: Spike has a terrible reaction on the first; Rawk forgets his man on the action for the second. Both times the shooter had got free, open look, good balance. Bad d. 

Next year will be interesting. Walton-Caris-Irvin-Dawkins-Doyle with Wilson, Robinson, Chatman and Donnal (and Rawk backcourt) would be pretty damn good if they all come back. If, of course, we spend the summer inbounding the ball.