Mini-Preview: Central Arkansas

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: "Hatfield said that reaction was varied. Some said it looked like the college's librarian. Some said it was too fat, too squatty, just plain ugly. Some faculty said the art department was forcing its ideas on the rest of the campus without first checking. Others thought it okay, especially since the bear was holding a book. Hatfield said President Nolen M. Irby 'took it well,' and apparently enough others did as well because the statue stayed. It remained in front of Main for many years, eventually moving to one or two other campus sites before winding up in the football stadium."

THE THEM

I won't waste much of your time previewing Central Arkansas, one of the 30 worst D-I programs in the country this year. Their lone win of the season came against #240 Army; their most impressive performance was either losing by only 12 at #48 Oklahoma State or taking #142 Little Rock to overtime at home. Three starters have ORatings below 100; two rotation backups have ORatings below 70. There are some stats below; they are ugly.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Really ugly.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 23.

A single-digit win would be a fiasco.

[Hit THE JUMP for Basketbullets.]

Michigan's Point Guard Problem

We've reached the "he is what he is" point with Derrick Walton; to be honest, we probably did last year. He's still a valuable player—his three-point shooting and defensive rebounding shouldn't be discounted—but his assist-to-turnover numbers remain mediocre by point guard standards and his poor finishing can no longer be chalked up to injury.

After making 32% of his two-pointers as a sophomore and 36% as a junior, he's a woeful 8-for-28 this season (29%) even though he's attempting a higher rate of threes than at any other point in his career; being selective about his twos isn't helping his efficiency. Walton hasn't developed a midrange game and doesn't have the size or lift to finish over rim protectors. On the occasions when he drives to the rim, he's often rudely rejected—Ike Anigbonu blocked him so hard on Saturday that he lost a shoe:

Mostly, though, Walton isn't even looking for his shot when he goes to the basket. DJ Wilson's intentional foul on Lonzo Ball on Saturday was a result of Walton posing no threat to score while driving off a high screen; he takes a harmless path to the paint that gets him caught under the basket, then tries to throw it back to Wilson at the top of the key instead of making the easy open pass to Zak Irvin in the near corner:

According to hoop-math, Walton has only attempted eight shots at the rim this year; while he's made four of them, two came in transition and a third came off an offensive rebound. In other words, Walton has one made shot at the rim that came within the flow of Michigan's halfcourt offense.

This woudn't be the biggest problem if Michigan had a few scoring options above Walton in the pecking order, but on this team his increasingly one-dimensional game is an issue, especially late in the shot clock. Hoop-math also tracks late offense: shots occurring in the final ten seconds of the shot clock. Walton is Michigan's third-most frequent taker of these shots after Zak Irvin and MAAR. He's 6-of-14 on threes in those situations, which is nice if he's able to spot up late in the clock. When he has to create, however, it doesn't go well; hoop-math has him at 1-for-6 on two-point jumpers in late clock situations and he doesn't even have an attempt at the rim. Here's one of those late-clock midrange shots:

That is, to say the least, a low-percentage look. It did not go in.

Walton's knack for drawing fouls only somewhat mitigates his inability to finish. This is the main reason this team really needs MAAR to step up; other than Irvin, he's the only guard on the team who can reliably get to the rim on his own, let alone make shots once he gets there.

The hope heading into the season was that Xavier Simpson would be good enough to allow Walton to slide to the two—where he could play to his strength as a spot-up shooter—but that hasn't at all come to fruition. Simpson has shown some promise on defense, where he's helped make up for the usual freshman mental errors with five steals.

On offense, however, Simpson not only looks lost, he looks afraid to shoot. He's attempting a microscopic 6.0% of Michigan's shots when he's on the floor. He's 2-for-7 from the field with ten assists and eight turnovers. That turnover figure doesn't include this functional turnover from the UCLA game when Simpson got the ball up top with less than ten seconds on the shot clock, drove off a pick from Donnal, and never got in position to get a shot off—MAAR made a valiant, fruitless effort to one-time Simpson's kickout:

Simpson has to shoot it there.

It's far too early to write Simpson off. Darius Morris posted some truly bad numbers as a freshman thrust into the starting lineup in 2009-10 and he ended up being pretty dang good the following year. That said, Morris at least showed flashes of what he'd become on offense—he made 51% of his twos and his ORating was below 90 because of bad three-point shooting and too many turnovers. Simpson has yet to show much of anything on that end. It'd be nice to see something before Beilein turns over the keys to him next season.

More Defensive Lapses

Yep:

John Beilein talked a lot about defense today. That he believes many of the issues are about focus as opposed to strategy is either good news or bad news, depending on what you think is easier to fix. He called some of the breakdowns against UCLA “perplexing” and “unexplainable.”

“We’re just standing there watching something happen that we know better of, and we’re just frozen,” he said. He later added that sometimes a player, either after a media timeout or immediately after subbing into the game, has not been fully aware of what’s happening. “We have to do something to increase our processing speed.”

Some of those were prominently featured in yesterday's post on three-point defense. Michigan's errors didn't just lead to open perimeter looks, though. Early in the second half, Moe Wagner decided on his way down the court to take DJ Wilson's man; meanwhile, Wagner's man was all alone for a dunk.

I have no idea how to explain why Duncan Robinson does what he does here:

Robinson is in the right position when the pass occurs; why he literally leaped upcourt and presented a free path to the baseline is beyond my comprehension. Robinson makes as many mental/technique errors as anyone on the team defensively, which is a huge problem given his lack of quickness. Ideally, he'd bulk up a bit so he could guard more opposing fours instead of trying to hang with quicker wing players, but he doesn't have the strength, and Michigan may be understandably hesitant to ask him to add much weight if it might throw off his shot.

Not Everything Is Bad, Part I

Let me be clear after yesterday's post: this is still an improved defensive team. Bad performances happen; Michigan had one of theirs against the worst possible opponent. There was still plenty of good to come out of the UCLA game and it wasn't limited to their first-half shooting. MAAR started going hard in the paint again; while going 3-for-8 on twos isn't spectacular, it's encouraging that he even attempted that many after settling for too many threes to begin the season. Mark Donnal had yet another efficient offensive performance and may have found his three-point shot; he's now seventh in the country(!!!) in ORating.

DJ Wilson did this, which I did not know he could do:

Wilson is still figuring out what he's capable of as an offensive player; it's increasingly looking like he's capable of a hell of a lot. If he adds a reliable off-the-dribble aspect to this game, he's going to be an NBA player. He's already pleasantly surprised by shooting 8-for-19 on triples.

Not Everything Is Bad, Part II

Beilein may have unearthed another gem in 2017 commit Isaiah Livers. Always beware of highlight videos—with enough editing almost anyone can look at least decent—but it's difficult not to get excited seeing Livers do all of this in one game:

HT: ypsituckyboy

He's big, athletic, and more skilled than I expected. I'm hoping to get out to Kalamazoo at some point this season to scout Livers in person.