Basketball Season Review: Bigs

Submitted by Ace on March 30th, 2012 at 5:14 PM


From our very own Zack Novak photoshop thread.

This is part two of the hoops season recap; part one, covering the guards, can be found here.

It should not come as a surprise to those who have followed John Beilein's Michigan squads that a post covering the team's "bigs" would feature a photo of 6'4" Zack Novak at the top of the post. Michigan entered the season relatively thin in the frontcourt, and things only got worse when backup center Jon Horford suffered a stress fracture in his right foot in December, an injury that would ultimately sideline him for the remainder of the season. When Evan Smotrycz suffered through a brutal slump to start conference play, Novak found himself starting at power forward, reprising his role from years past instead of playing his natural two-guard position.

While Michigan got solid seasons out of Novak and Jordan Morgan, along with some inspired efforts from Smotrycz, the lack of size up front was the team's greatest weakness. This was exposed each time Michigan played Ohio State or Michigan State, especially away from Crisler, and even when all of the bigs got in foul trouble at Northwestern and Colton Christian played important minutes at center. This shouldn't be as much of an issue next season with the addition of Mitch McGary and the return of Horford, but Smotrycz's departure hurts. Let's look back on each player's individual contributions:

Jordan Morgan

Preseason Expectations: Morgan entered the season as the returning starter after a surprising redshirt freshman season, but he still had to hold off Jon Horford to keep the job. The hope was that he'd develop his post game while continuing to play solid defense, rebound, and hit his fair share of high-percentage shots.

Postseason Reality: Morgan still hasn't displayed much in the way of a back-to-the-basket game, and he missed a maddeningly large amount of layups. The latter point was a source of great frustration, along with his propensity for early foul trouble, but overall Morgan was quite solid in the middle. His defense improved—including a sharp decline in foul rate—his rebounding was solid, and he shot just a hair under 62% from the field. Trey Burke didn't look to Morgan as much as Darius Morris did last year, and there was a clear adjustment period while he got used to playing with a different style of point guard. While there wasn't a big leap forward in Morgan's offensive game, as many had hoped, he did not regress, either. Meanwhile, he was in better shape, running the floor well and consistently posting strong defensive performances. Morgan probably isn't ever going to be an offensive force, nor a intimidating shot-blocker—the touch and explosive athleticism just aren't there—but he's a solid presence who should end up as a four-year starter.

Highlight: The Ohio State win was the most memorable of the season, and it was also the best game of Morgan's career, as he posted his first double-double—11 points (5-8 from the field) and 11 rebounds—while limiting Jared Sullinger to 14 points on 6-14 shooting. Morgan also beat Sullinger down the court for a pair of thunderous dunks in transition.

Lowlight: When Michigan matched up against Ohio State in the conference tournament, things didn't go so well. The Buckeyes dominated the Wolverines inside, and Morgan could only muster three points (1-5 shooting) and four rebounds while turning the ball over three times.

Key Numbers: 61.9 2pt%, 17.8 DR%, 3.9 fouls committed/40 minutes

Next year: Morgan should start at center once again, and it would be nice to see him break out a go-to post move. Mostly, however, Michigan will need him as a rebounder/defender/screen-setter, which falls right into his comfort zone. Also, make layups, please.

Zack Novak

Preseason Expectations: Novak was expected to make a grand return to shooting guard, where the hope was that is offensive production would rise now that he no longer had to guard players a half-foot taller while shouldering a large part of the rebounding load.

Postseason Reality: Novak, of course, had to slide back to power forward when Smotrycz was benched early in Big Ten play, and for the fourth straight year his play improved despite not being the focal point of the team. He shot very well from the field—56% on twos, 41% on threes—and posted the team's best ORtg—his 123.3 mark was 39th in the country. Then, of course, you get Novak's trademark grit, as he still marveled with his ability to rebound among the trees while providing solid defense against players who theoretically should be dunking all over him (sometimes they did, but that happens when you're a 6'4" post player). Novak finished his career as the consummate role player, knocking down threes, hitting big shots when called upon, and otherwise doing everything to raise the level of play from his teammates. Michigan fans may not miss having a natural shooting guard at power forward when the 2012 reinforcements arrive, but they'll sure miss Zack Novak.

Highlight: Novak absolutely tore up UCLA back in November, scoring 22 points on eight shots from the field and chipping in three rebounds.

Lowlight: The final game in Novak's Wolverine career was sadly forgettable, as he could only muster a season-low two points on 1-5 shooting and didn't record a defensive rebound in Michigan's tourney loss to Ohio.

Next Year: Novak will take his grit to Europe. Godspeed, captain.

Evan Smotrycz

Preseason Expectations: Smotrycz was pinned as the X-factor for Michigan, a player who could put the team over the top as a sharp-shooting starter at power forward. After a solid but inconsistent showing as a freshman, he looked due for a breakout season.

Postseason Reality: It was a rollercoaster season for Smotrycz, who struggled early, caught fire at the end of nonconference play, then went into a prolonged slump that saw him lose his starting job for the rest of the season. The surprising post-season transfer fits that narrative all too well. The overall numbers are solid: Smotrycz averaged 7.7 points per game with a 58.9 eFG%, and he was also the team's most effective defensive rebounder, bringing in 21.4% of opponent misses when he was on the floor. However, Smotrycz never quite found his game again after losing his shooting stroke in Big Ten play, and his overall defense left much to be desired; he finished with a sky-high 5.8 fouls per 40 minutes as he played defense with his hands instead of his feet far too often. Smotrycz on average was an effective offensive weapon, but the inconsistency and defensive shortcomings proved too great to justify giving him starter's minutes.

Highlight: Prospects looked good when Smotrycz scored 20 points on eight shots (4-5 from three) and grabbed nine rebounds against Oakland. It's also worth noting that Smotrycz's 15 points on 6-7 shooting was really the only thing keeping Michigan close against Ohio in the last game of the season.

Lowlight: Smotrycz's final start was the debacle at Iowa, and he failed to score in 22 minutes of play while also committing two turnovers. That was the final straw, as Beilein inserted Stu Douglass into the starting lineup against State.

Key Numbers: 58.9 eFG%, 21.4 DR%, 5.8 FC/40

Next Year: Smotrycz won't be here, which really sucks. Best of luck to him.

Jon Horford

Preseason Expectations: Fight for the starting center job with Morgan, provide at least 15 quality minutes per game.

Postseason Reality: Horford's balky foot robbed Michigan of any depth at center and prematurely ended what was at times a promising sophomore campaign. He showed up much bigger than he was as a freshman, looking the part of a Big Ten center, and he was very active on the glass and as a shot-blocker. Horford doesn't have a polished offensive game, but he brings a lot of energy and is a more athletic option than Morgan, at least when it comes to quick-twitch explosiveness. Much is still unknown, however, as Horford only appeared in nine games.

Highlight: Horford hit all five of his shots from the field, grabbed seven rebounds, and blocked three shots against UCLA, by far the best performance of his young career.

Lowlight: The stress fracture that erased the season's last 25 games.

Next Year: Horford probably won't surpass Morgan at this point, but he should be a valuable backup who won't be much of a dropoff defensively or on the glass. I really like Horford's athleticism and potential, and we'll see how he develops once he gets through rehab and can go full-steam again.

Blake McLimans

Preseason Expectations: McLimans came to the team with the reputation of being the type of sharpshooting big man that Beilein loves, but he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn as a freshman. Expectations were rather low, with the hope being that he wouldn't really need to see the court behind a big man rotation of Morgan, Horford, and Smotrycz.

Postseason Reality: McLimans still isn't much of an inside presence, especially defensively, but he did manage to knock down a decent portion of his jumpers, going 5-12 from beyond the arc and 10-21 overall this season. McLimans only played more than eight minutes in a game once during conference play—the aforementioned Northwestern game—and only was used when both Morgan and Smotrycz got into early foul trouble.

Next Year: McLimans may see his role further decrease when Horford returns and Mitch McGary hits campus. He could see some time as a situational shooter, but he's going to need to really improve on defense if he wants to carve out a larger role.

Colton Christian

Preseason Expectations: Provide the occasional boost of energy off the bench.

Postseason Reality: Christian played a total of 51 minutes on the year, grabbing six rebounds and hitting a few very unexpected shots. Still didn't display much of an offensive game, and was mostly content to hit the class and save his energy for defense.

Next Year: He won't be here, having also put in his name for a transfer. It's highly unlikely he would have seen the floor.

Comments

Swang on These

March 30th, 2012 at 7:19 PM ^

I'm going to get negged for saying this even though I am a Michigan fan and just looking for intelligent discussion, but I don't know if I agree that Smotrycz really helped keep us close against Ohio as much as everyone is saying. Granted he played well on O, but on defense he looked lost. I don't know how many times he was in the paint and just got straight up owned by MAC-level talent. I think his performance on defense kind of evened out his good night on offense.

Blue boy johnson

March 31st, 2012 at 9:48 AM ^

It is striking to me how much the unexpected loss of Smot affects M's front line. Smot was the lone guy on the roster with a sweet 3 point stroke. McGary, Horford, Morgan, and Bielfeldt have no 3 point game at this point AFAIK, McLimans has shown a decent stroke but probably isn't going to play much.

People have been touting GRIII as a power forward. I frankly don't see it. Rivals list Robinson as 6'5'' 192. I don't see how GRIII can play PF in the BIG at that size as a true freshman

http://rivals.yahoo.com/michigan/basketball/recruiting/commitments/2012

SF
St. John, INLake Central
6'5"
192
 
4 stars
 
7/13/11

 

freejs

April 1st, 2012 at 7:48 PM ^

of a big to stretch out the opposing defense.

I also hate losing Evan for another reason - which is offensive continuity. Michigan fans - everywhere - consistently underestimate how important it is to have continuity and player teachers/demonstrators in Beilein's complicated offensive system.

And my impression was always that Evan, for whatever you want to say about him, was a smart kid, which may have been part of what made him so freaking sensitive. But without question, he really grasped the offensive spacing in his second season.

On defense, he either didn't grasp what was being diagrammed or frequently forgot to care, but truly understanding how the five pieces of a defense work together can take three or four years. No one's wrong, though, in saying he was a significant defensive liability - I remember one specific game where Morgan replacing Smotrycz and simply understanding where the help was supposed to be and executing the defense led to three positive plays in a row, a sudden impact, and a complete change of momentum in a game we ultimately won.

I just was always one of those people who hoped the light would eventually come on wrt both ends. Also, Smotrycz's Lobstryczs is one of the most clever student section things I've ever seen.

So I'm concerned about that loss, too.

 

champswest

March 31st, 2012 at 1:09 PM ^

he wasn't.  Trey Burke was.  Evan didn't elevate his game after 2 years as a starter.  His outside shooting (only 7.7 points a game) shouldn't be that hard to replace and McGary, Horford, Bielfeldt should more than make up for it in offense, rebounding and shot blocking.  Plus, I won't have to cringe watching Smotrycz trying to lead the fast break and end up turning the ball over.

Kilgore Trout

March 31st, 2012 at 11:27 PM ^

I would say that after four years, it's time to stop saying the 2 is Novak's natural position.  In Beilien's system, he's a more natural 4 than he is a 2.  He's certainly undersized, but he seemed better suited for banging inside and stepping out to shoot threes than to handle the ball on the perimeter or guard B1G level 2 guards.  A lot of the Purdue loss came down to Purdue isolating Novak on the perimiter and blowing by him.  Novak will go down as a legend, but I don't think he's a natural 2.