Basketball Recruitin': No Harris, Offer Day Imminent Comment Count

Brian

So That Was Odd And Didn't Happen

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PROTIP: DON'T GOOGLE IMAGE SEARCH "ABORT" WITHOUT "MISSION"

WVU transfer Eron Harris is headed to MSU, and without ever visiting Ann Arbor. This was seemingly a mutual decision after a conversation before the visit, as Harris had a vision of the way he wanted it to go that Beilein did not share. So, okay. Whatever.

2015 Class: Still Trying To Exist

Moving on, the 2015 roster now looks approximately like this, give or take a Caris NBA departure or miraculous Hatch recovery:

  • PG: Walton (Jr), Albrecht (Sr)
  • SG: MAAR(So)
  • SF: Irvin (Jr), Dawkins (So)
  • PF: Chatman (So), Wilson (So), Bielfeldt(Sr)
  • C: Doyle (So), Donnal (So)

You could probably slide Irvin and Chatman down a spot, but the upshot is that Michigan would like a guy approximately shaped like a shooting guard. Given the age and NBA departure threat levels of the folks on the roster, a PG/SG combo would be a nice fit. Prime candidates include offerees like MI combo Eric Davis, IL PG Jalen Brunson, and IN SG Jalen Coleman. All of these gentlemen have Michigan in a leading group, and MSU adding two 2015 SG types in a couple days should help Michigan out—MSU is also in the lead group for all those gentlemen.

Status for those three:

Davis wants to narrow by July, take officials in August and September, and decide by October. He wants to shoot a lot of threes, so we've got that going for us.

Brunson has a top eight including Michigan that he wants to narrow in August, and then he'll take officials and decide before the November signing period. Playing time has always been a major priority for him, so Michigan might actually want him to wait until spring. If he decides before it's clear whether Caris enters the draft (or Walton—longshot I know, but I'd like to introduce you to 10% of this year's first round).

Coleman, as per usual, has not provided any indication of when or where he might commit. He did tell a 247 gentleman that he was planning on "cutting his list soon" and that fit (check), opportunity (likely check) and proximity to home (eh… close enough?) are his main priorities.

Coleman has been too busy making rims explode on the AAU circuit to get too much into recruiting, where he's shooting 50% from three on almost 100 attempts. 247's Crystal Ball still says Michigan almost all the way, but with Coleman telling folks that "to this point, Coleman's dad has been in charge of the recruitment—with Jalen having little involvement" means that you should take any and all thoughts/hopes Michigan leads with a graint of salt.

2015 Big Options

If Chatman does end up sliding down to the 3, which is very possible with his skill set, Michigan would have a reasonably-sized opening for either a 4 or a 5, depending on where they want to play Mark Donnal long term. There are a couple options in this recruiting class still.

One is OH PF Esa Ahmad, who's a little undersized at 6'7" but has been playing well and is planning visits to both MSU and Michigan. Another is 6'10" Henry Ellenson, a power forward out of Wisconsin with three point range and a lot of high-major interest. Michigan is currently on the periphery pending the all-important visit:

"Michigan was at my house, and so was Michigan State," Ellenson said. "Michigan has been talking to me lately. I like Coach [John] Beilein down there. He is a great guy and easy to talk to.

"I know I will take my five officials next fall, but I'm not sure where I am going yet. I know they are big on coming to campus. We'll just see if the timing works out."

Get 'em on campus, etc. Ahmad and Ellenson are both ranked around 50 or 60 most places… except ESPN, which has Ellenson 5th(!) overall.

2016: Comin'

Michigan's elite camp has come and gone with three headliners: NJ SG Tyus Battle, NV PG Derryck Thornton Jr, and MI PG Cassius Winston, all 2016 five-stars. Those three were the class of the camp, according to Scout. Sam Webb on Thornton($):

This kid has all of the tools. Elite quickness, explosion, three-point range, and he is unselfish. He crossed too many players over to really keep track of and was generally capable of getting to wherever he wanted on the floor.  Thornton excels in space, which is why it wasn’t a surprise to see him wave off ball screens.  He just doesn’t need them to leverage on a defender.

[Much, much more at the link, FWIW.]

Despite that, the Scout guys generally thought Winston was better right now, though Thornton had more upside because of the whole nobody-can-stay-in-front thing. Battle is a lights-out 6'5" shooter.

Other notables($) included IN SG Kyle Guy ("a much smaller Nik Stauskas"), OH C Jon Teske ("6-10 and skilled … the physical part will come"), and OH SF Seth Towns ("6-7 shooter" whose shot wasn't falling). I don't think Guy or Teske will get offers until M lets Battle and TJ Leaf think about theirs; Towns is still a possibility since Michigan doesn't seem to have a guy obviously in front of him on their board, but it sounds like that offer may take a little bit longer to come.

Teske seems like he's almost recruiting M at this point, and a 6'10" guy with skill inside and out is someone Michigan will be keeping an eye on.

Thorton's vague top five

Thornton told Scout that five teams were coming for him hardest: Kentucky, Michigan, UConn, Cal, and USC. Those kind of statements are generally soft top X lists, and it seems unlikely Cal or USC can hang with the two teams that just met in the NC game and Derryck's dad's coach. Thornton on M($):

“Their offense is so spread out. They’re about development but the offense is really spread out, the bigs are mobile and there’s a lot of pick and roll stuff. They key on development and I love that.”

Thornton has no timetable but it sounds like he might get things over quickly.

Battle, meanwhile, is headed to Villanova next. He told a national scout reporter that Michigan was coming after him hard in a way that may be meaningful:

“It’s early but I already have 20 offers,” noted Battle. “Michigan has been recruiting me hard, Villanova, Syracuse, Ohio State, Duke, and several other schools.”

Michigan may be recruiting him harder than everyone else because Thornton is recruiting for them? Yeah! That's the ticket. That is the ticket.

Comments

Flying Dutchman

June 9th, 2014 at 2:58 PM ^

Teske has some family roots in Michigan.   I know his grampa here in GR and G'pa has a big influence in the kids life.     One of his GR cousins is reported to be best friends with Drake Harris, and just went off to play hoops at Hillsdale or Spring Arbor or one of those.

I would love to see Teske in Maize n' Blue.

Farnn

June 9th, 2014 at 2:59 PM ^

Everyone seems to be counting on Walton and Irving being around as juniors. Recent trends suggest at least 1 and maybe both could be gone if the coaches can work their freshman to sophomore magic.

JayMo4

June 9th, 2014 at 3:44 PM ^

Personally, I'd be surprised if Irvin develops into enough of an all-around player to leave after his sophomore year, given that he doesn't seem to have explosive athleticism.  Stauskas is a great shooter, but also does a lot of things very well.  At this point, I see Irvin as being mostly a three point threat.  I do think he has the ability to score a little more off the dribble on mid-range pull-up jumpers - if he becomes enough of a scoring threat from anywhere on the floor, teams may overlook the fact that his ball skills and defense are still a work in progress.

I'd be a little less surprised about Walton, because I expect him to have a huge breakout in his sophomore year.  That said, he's not explosive either so for him to go very high he'll have to look like a can't miss player in terms of efficiency - his decision making as a floor general will have to take a leap forward, and it just might.

The way we've been developing guys, I suppose it shouldn't surprise me if we lose two or three more guys early after this coming season.  But I will (very) tentatively predict one early departure for now, and assume if there are more than that it's because we've made another final four run.  Yeah, that sounds pretty good.

IndyBlue90

June 9th, 2014 at 3:48 PM ^

You should check out Irvin's HS highlight reel. He has a very versatile game, especially offensively, and he will make gains in athleticism like Stauskas did. Personally, I think he has more immediate NBA potential, mainly because of his size, than Walton. 

alum96

June 9th, 2014 at 5:23 PM ^

I guess I am just the opposite with Walton.  There is not just a huge market for early entry 6'1 point guards (and if he is 6'1 in college he is probably 6'0 for real) if their name is not Chris Paul or Trey Burke.  Walton is a solid player at a lot of things but has to develop and is not "premier" at any one thing.  Burke was already a premier scorer as a freshman (partly out of need) but Trey was breaking down players off the dribble as a freshman far more than Walton did.

Not ripping on our players but we've had a crazy run here the past 2 years of early entrees and I think now everyone assumes any top 100 players who has been in the program 2 years is gone... just not going to happen, some guys will level off into very good college players and borderline NBA picks/players.  Others may stay all 4 years, etc. 

As for Irvin we have to see a whole different side of his game - literally the only thing he did last year was shoot - and shoot excellent but compare to Nik who early in his freshman year drained 3s against non conf like nobodies business then as the season went by began to drive to the basket.  Irvin never did that.  And 12 months ago no one thought Nik was leaving early, we thought he was a 3 year player (minimum).  And he showed more than Zak did as a freshman.

If I had to put odds I'd say 90% both come back for junior years, and if one goes it would be Zak.  If Walton was 6'4 I'd think different if he really improved this year but it takes a very special player to go early at that height.  Look at Shabazz Napier who is a far better (and older) player than Walton. As a junior Napier shot 44% (40% from 3), nearly 5 assists a game, and averaged 17 pts.  And still didn't leave early.  Most mocks have him as a 2nd round pick and if Walton gets to that level as a player he would be considered blessed.

AlwaysBlue

June 9th, 2014 at 5:42 PM ^

show much beyond 3P shooting his freshmen year. Yeah, maybe a glimpse here and there, but nothing like what he showed up to do as a sophomore. Irvin played the same role this past season and I am confident he too will show up much different as a sophomore. As a bonus, he will be a much tougher defender.

alum96

June 9th, 2014 at 6:17 PM ^

Disagree.

"Not just a shooter" was not born his sophomore year - it was born his freshman year because he took it to the rack a few times a game and everyone said "wow not just a shooter".  Irvin I can count on my 2 hands how many times he did it - it was 4 (I missed about 6 games this year so maybe it was 5-6).  I think 2 came in the tourney.

That is not to say he doesnt have ability but Nik drove to the basket far more.

Anyhow long story short Zak was a 1 dimensional player last year and right now everyone assumes anyone who plays under Beilein is going to show the same growth as Nik (or Caris) in 1 year.  Just not going to happen.  Every player is individual.  GR3 didn't show anywhere near the growth year over year (he started from a higher base)... but right now expectations are over the top of quantum leaps by everyone ranked in the top 100.

DowntownLJB

June 9th, 2014 at 6:55 PM ^

one of the differences in Nik's freshman year vs. Zak's freshman year though was also opportunity.  Nik was starting as a freshman.  Due to the caliber of the guys in front of him, Zak wasn't, and so he was the sharp-shooter off the bench, with fewer minutes to establish his other offensive skillset.  The question remains whether that was because he didn't have the other skills (and/or the coaches weren't confident in the other skills so didn't green-light him doing those things) or if he stayed within what the team needed from him (ie, be "just a shooter").  Given his recruiting rankings, I'm hoping it's just what he was asked to do, not what he was capable of....

alum96

June 9th, 2014 at 5:18 PM ^

Agreed.  Other than Caris this should be the same squad the following year.  Which is why a premier SG would be an excellent add.   Hence I am bummed about Harris.  That was a plug and play player who could get you 14 ppg and brought junior level mentality.   Instead we (at best) will have a "super freshman" who has to learn the ropes etc.

This is the spot where Blackmon really could have thrived in 2015 but I can see why he is at IU - he will play immediately whereas he'd be parked behind Caris for a year here.

Erik_in_Dayton

June 9th, 2014 at 5:41 PM ^

I would have gladly taken him if his visit issues could have been resolved and he'd wanted to join the team (bird in the hand and all that).  I went back and forth, though, on whether landing him was ideal.  I feared that it would cost Michigan the chance to get Coleman (still far from a sure thing, of course).  I think Michigan will likely have enough fire power in '15 to endure having a younger guy at SG, and I think Coleman has a higher ceiling than Harris. 

alum96

June 9th, 2014 at 6:29 PM ^

Yes, I am in the bird in hand camp. 

We don't seem to be doing great in recruiting guys that the whole world is after i.e the 5 stars who are 5 stars early and Calipari, Donovan,and Pitino et al are after.  Most of our elite recruits are guys Beilein identified long before others and were 3 stars or low 4s earlier who exploded late in ranking ala GR3 or Zak.  Chatman was sort of like that too - Arizona was after but he was not a top 20 name.

Other than Mitch I don't think we've nabbed an early 5 star type and Mitch had connections with Novak etc.  Hence until I see we can nab some of these guys away from the same old group of Kansas, Duke, UNC, blah blah it seems hard to count on it.  Coleman falls into that camp.  As did Devin Booker and Blackmon, etc  As did Stone and Zimmerman who we seem to have been completely frozen out of.  Maybe the 2016s will fare better as this staff deserves to be on equal footing with those name schools wit its track record the past 4 years.

Raoul

June 9th, 2014 at 6:55 PM ^

Also at Elite Camp was another 2016 point guard, 6-3 Quentin Goodin of Campbellsville, Kentucky, who left Ann Arbor expecting a Michigan offer come June 15.

"Honestly, I do expect a (scholarship) offer on June 15," Goodin said by phone Sunday night, referencing the annual date Michigan coach John Beilein extends offers to targeted rising high school juniors. "I feel like I played really good in front of coach Beilein. He kept smiling and kept giving me tips and things to work on. He said I'm doing a great job and have a great attitude and am a great teammate. So I feel like I did enough at the camp that coach Beilein will offer me."

He's been quoted as being very interested in Kentucky, but they don't seem to be recruiting him that hard. He plans to narrow his list in August and then make a decision next summer. He does seem to have genuine interest in Michigan:

"Michigan turned my head," Goodin said. "Once Michigan started calling about me, I knew they produced NBA players and I knew they produced good point guard who improve their game. So Michigan immediately came to my attention because of the style of ball Trey Burke played."

Here's a highlight video:

BlueCube

June 9th, 2014 at 8:19 PM ^

comments about Kentucky. He said he would jump at the chance to play for them so I think until you get his signature on a LOI, you are very vulnerable for him to jump unless you feel no Kentucky offer is coming.

Because of that I hope they can get one of the others.  He may be great but his heart is in Kentucky.

Link

“I really like Coach (John) Calipari a lot,” Goodin told SNY.tv on Wednesday. “I like how he develops his players, not only the league, but just through the mindset that life isn’t just basketball. He would set me up for life after basketball. I would definitely take the opportunity to play at Kentucky if I got it.”

Goodin attended Big Blue Madness recently, and says that Coach Cal’s ability to ready his players for the next level is very intriguing.

Evil Empire

June 10th, 2014 at 11:14 AM ^

Big stretch, I know, especially given how the last few years have turned out.  Available spots could be anywhere from 1-4, depending on LeVert, Hatch, Bielfeldt.  Most likely scenario is that LeVert goes, Hatch is a student but not a student-athlete, and Bielfeldt stays, leaving three spots.  But the staff can probably only count on two being open.  Wish list: Jalen Coleman and Henry Ellenson.