APR: Schools Potentially In Trouble Next Year

Submitted by Brian on March 31st, 2010 at 1:06 PM

A glimpse into the future: here's a table of schools that would fall under the 925 line if we just look at the last three years of data. These schools could be subject to contemporaneous penalties if they lose a kid because he is ineligible unless they improve this year.

Columns are mostly self explanatory. APR XX = single-year APR. SS XX = squad size for a particular year. 09 APR so far is a combination of the APR scores weighted by the squad sizes, so UAB's 756 counts more than their 931 because the 756 saw 97 players and the 931 just 80. I think I might be slightly off on the weightings here because squad size may not directly correspond with points available, but these should be close.

The last column is the score the school needs to break to get out of the contemporaneous penalties zone. Obviously, the top four teams are not going to climb out in one year. BCS teams have been bolded.

School Conf. APR APR 08 SS 08 APR 07 SS 07 APR 06 SS 06 09 APR
SO FAR
SCORE
NEEDED
UAB CUSA 875 931 80 756 97 908 93 860 1119
Florida International Sun Belt 904 965 81 891 77 822 90 890 1030
San Jose State University WAC 888 952 78 876 82 853 86 892 1024
Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt 906 886 87 934 87 869 86 896 1011
Washington State University Pac-10 918 922 84 874 88 921 90 906 983
University of Mississippi SEC 910 891 85 945 76 890 85 907 978
University of Idaho WAC 905 938 77 880 87 911 90 909 974
New Mexico State University WAC 905 900 95 920 87 913 89 911 968
University at Buffalo MAC 908 921 80 933 81 884 86 912 964
University of Minnesota Big Ten 915 887 89 935 88 924 86 915 955
University of Colorado Big 12 929 935 90 893 90 918 94 915 954
University of North Texas Sun Belt 911 914 87 917 87 924 85 918 945
University of South Florida Big East 909 938 85 937 85 879 79 919 943
Temple University MAC 891 960 90 893 91 910 88 921 937
Florida Atlantic University Sun Belt 913 935 85 918 77 911 85 921 936
University of Arkansas SEC 927 918 91 937 91 910 96 921 936
SDSU MWC 914 943 87 894 87 929 87 922 934
University of Akron MAC 926 948 90 906 90 912 89 922 934
Florida State University ACC 932 871 91 960 83 938 94 922 934
Bowling Green MAC 920 912 91 931 95 923 91 922 934
UNLV MWC 929 960 84 922 95 889 95 922 933

Ole Miss is the most relevant team in the danger zone, and it looks doubtful they will be able to avoid a small penalty or two. Florida State's ugly 871 will be an anchor for a few years but if they bounce back with numbers similar to their record to date it won't be a serious problem. And Tim Brewster's gift to whoever replaces him in two years is going to be that 887.

Comments

Tim

March 31st, 2010 at 1:43 PM ^

If a player graduates, there is no APR penalty, unless the NCAA is retarded.

On second thought, there might be a penalty.

formerlyanonymous

March 31st, 2010 at 1:50 PM ^

That's not entirely true. If a player transfers but graduates elsewhere, there is a penalty. That's why I question it. So I don't doubt the NCAA's incompetence, but I wasn't sure if being at the same school mattered.

Some coaches have argued that APR should be measured over 6 years instead of 4, claiming that the average graduate now goes 5.3 years (I haven't seen numbers to back that claim up), but it makes me think that if they graduate at the school in less than 4 years, they wouldn't count against the number as if it were 6 years, you'd have guys falling off. This assumes the coach meant keeping the status quo.

Tim

March 31st, 2010 at 2:04 PM ^

Guys leaving the school to graduate elsewhere have chosen to get the F out of the program, for whatever reason.

Guys who leave in fewer than four years because they graduate early are taking off because they've exceeded academic expectations. Not that the NCAA's decisions ever make sense, but it seems counter intuitive to punish a school due to academic failure because a player has gone above and beyond academically.

zlionsfan

March 31st, 2010 at 9:05 PM ^

is a load of crap, at least with respect to the overall student population. Looking at what I saw across the Big Ten, somewhere between 1% and 4% of a class will need that sixth year to graduate (like me - I was lazy). Even the weaker schools give out degrees to about two-thirds of a class in five years, and the stronger ones are closer to 85 or 90 percent.

formerlyanonymous

March 31st, 2010 at 1:55 PM ^

Further questioning: how many of these teams below the threshold were punished via the NCAA last year? And by punished I mean more than a warning letter?

(Sigh... after writing this last question, I realized I've been writing a research paper the last three days and I've been forced to question every source with every form of skepticism... I'll stop now.)

Feat of Clay

April 1st, 2010 at 11:38 AM ^

Do they look at the overall graduation rate for the school? Ole Miss sees less than 60% of its overall student body graduating in four years. How much better should one expect the football program to do?

huskyskins

April 1st, 2010 at 1:10 PM ^

There is no squad size adjustment if there are 4 years of APR reporting.

The score is a percentage x 100 of students that are both enrolled and academically eligible. Each student can score 2 points per reporting period. One for each criteria.

The NCAA cutoff is 925 (92.5%) of all possible points. This correlates with a 60% graduation rate. 900 score correlates with a 40% graduation rate.

If an institution is under the cutoff, penalties get assessed on "0-for-2" students. Those that both leave and would not be academically eligible. The institution, loses the remainder of that kid's scholarship. They don't get penalized (except by score) for those that leave, but would be academically eligible (e.g. Mr. Rolle at FSU). There's also a 10% cap on total scholarship losses per team, rounded up.

There's more sanctions possible for habitual offenders, but this is the immediate situation.