APR Bounces Back, Doom Probably Averted

Submitted by Brian on May 24th, 2011 at 1:53 PM

Michigan's latest APR score (covering year two of Rodriguez) is a 946. This:

  1. is about on par with Michigan's recent average outside of the initial year of attrition, and
  2. is exactly one point better than what I guessed they'd need to stay above the 925 mark
  3. leaves their multiyear APR just above the Mendoza line at 928.

So no penalties. Even if Michigan had dropped below 925 they would have had to have a player leave ineligible to get hit, but… uh… Tate Forcier. So phew.

Next year they'll have to do better than 918—that's the score that drops off—to keep their head above water. That should be doable as long as the transition attrition isn't as bad as Rodriguez's, which it doesn't appear it will be.

FWIW, all of Michigan's other sports are fine. Most have a vastly better graduation rate than the university. Most impressive is basketball's 988.



May 24th, 2011 at 2:15 PM ^

But its annoying that our number is lower than everyone in the Big 10, SEC, Big 12, Pac-10, and Mountain West.  In fact, the only schools in BCS conferences that are lower than us are Louisville and Maryland, who both got hit with penalties.  I'm getting pretty excited for all the meaningless headlines that will come out of this. 


May 24th, 2011 at 2:21 PM ^

I think the only articles will come from the FreeP (because, yeah) and Rittenberg's blog as he posts this stuff because it is in fact his job.  Rittenberg's post won't be at all negative because there are no penalties (although some comments may be negative, but ESPN comment boards are only a shade better than the RCMB). 

The FreeP article may have some flame, but probably not too much as we aren't facing penalties.  Can you just imagin what would have happened if we were under 925?


May 24th, 2011 at 2:34 PM ^

I'm a bit confused. This is for the 2009-2010 year, so wouldn't next year's include a majority of the never forget squad? Also, wouldn't Tate Forcier being declared ineligible be counted against next year's APR, not this year's, i.e. even if we had fallen below 925, wouldn't we still be safe this year because everyone left eligible?


May 24th, 2011 at 2:52 PM ^

will be for the 2010-11 academic year, a.k.a this past one. So yes Forcier will show up on this coming year as well as anybody that left between June 2010 and before the completion of this academic year. But I don't think it would include that many people. For example, someone like Cullen I believe finished the school year out, so he would actually count against the 2011-12 year.

I'm trying to think of the players that have left since last June but can't come up with who that would have been. Justin Turner I think, but who else?


May 24th, 2011 at 3:17 PM ^

Well, we have to worry about 2006-2007 falling off (I don't know what that one looked like) and hope that 2010-2011 is equal or better than that. If not, we would fall below that 925 limit and have one person who left ineligible. It sounded like Brian was saying that this would have lost us a scholarship this year, but it also sounded like he was getting years confused. So, I would assume that next year will be another year of worry unless I've misunderstood this whole process.


May 24th, 2011 at 3:49 PM ^

From Brian's older post, it looks like the one coming off next year is the 918, which means we just have to do better than that. A worst cast scenario with those 6 players not giving us any points leaves us at 928 or so, so I see why we shouldn't be worried next year. After that, the 897 comes off, which should raise us well above 925 for the average.


May 24th, 2011 at 4:43 PM ^

and a lifelong fan of the Michigan Wolverines, this makes me very, very happy. 


PS - Here's to beating the snot out of UVA, Princeton, and Hopkins for years to come!