2016 Week 9 CFB Bullets Comment Count

Alex Cook

clem fsu

[Glenn Beil – USA Today]

Because of how schedules across the country align, some weeks are more important than others in college football – and this was one of those weeks. Seven teams took their undefeated records into road games against mostly tough teams and more than half lost: Baylor and West Virginia fell from the ranks of the unbeaten and imperiled the Big 12’s playoff hopes, Nebraska lost in overtime against Wisconsin in a battle of the B1G West’s best teams, and Boise State lost to Craig Bohl’s Wyoming team – placing Western Michigan(!) in the driver’s seat for the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bowl slot.

It was a fun week that featured several competitive and consequential games that will help shape the narrative of the season moving forward and the undefeated teams that survived their road tests – Michigan, Clemson, and Washington – are in prime position for playoff spots.

ACC

--- In what’s become one of the best annual matchups in all of college football, CLEMSON and FLORIDA STATE put together another classic: despite allowing four Dalvin Cook rushing touchdowns, the Tigers came away with a 37-34 win after Deshaun Watson engineered a game-winning drive for the go-ahead touchdown pass to Jordan Leggett with two minutes left. Both offensive lines struggled against fierce pass-rushers – Florida State’s particularly so, as Deondre Francois took some brutal hits all game – but big plays by star players on both sides led to the high final score. Midway through the fourth quarter, Cook ripped off a long run into Clemson territory that was negated by a horrendous illegal block penalty by a Florida State penalty, which was compounded by another penalty for Jimbo Fisher’s complaining. Clemson hit a field goal on the following drive and while FSU did manage to take a late lead after a quick touchdown drive, they were unable to stop the Tigers from marching down the field with several passes to Leggett. The Seminoles got the ball back with a chance to tie or take the lead, but several sacks prevented them from doing so. Clemson’s now totaled wins against Auburn, Louisville, and Florida State, which may be the most impressive resume in the country at this point. With this win, they’ve effectively assured themselves a spot in the ACC Championship game.

[More on the week that was after the JUMP]

--- It looks like VIRGINIA TECH might the winner of the ACC Coastal and the team they’ll face in that game. On Thursday, the Hokies played an entertaining game against PITT and came away with a critical road win. The Panther secondary has been a liability all season and Tech’s Jerod Evans threw for over 400 yards in the win, aided by some spectacular catches from his receiving corps. Pitt’s James Conner has continued his excellent season after beating cancer, rushing for 141 yards and three touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough to cover for their leaky defense. That defense was put in some bad field position situations and actually did well to hold Virginia Tech to six field goals, but couldn’t quite get a stop to get the ball back at the end of the game and Pitt lost, 39-36. Virginia Tech and North Carolina – who was on a bye this week – are tied atop the division, but since the Hokies obliterated the Heels in a sloppy, hurricane-influenced environment a couple weeks ago, they own the tiebreaker. VT has a relatively easy path to winning out, though they did drop an inexplicable loss to Syracuse earlier this season.

--- The ACC came precariously close to delivering what would have been the season’s biggest upset: LOUISVILLE trailed by a point after VIRGINIA (who are now 2-6 on the year) drove down the field for a go-ahead touchdown with less than two minutes remaining, but Lamar Jackson moved the ball down the field and threw a 29-yard, game-winning touchdown with 13 seconds left to escape with a win and avoid having the game come down to a last-second field goal attempt. Even though he turned the ball over twice, Jackson was superb yet again; his stat-line of 361 yards passing with four touchdowns to go along with 88 yards rushing was typical of the dual-threat ability he’s provided all season – and what’s made him into the Heisman frontrunner. Louisville outgained UVA by almost 200 yards and they’re still in decent position to sneak into the playoff if one of the frontrunners slip up – a loss to lowly Virginia would have ended those hopes.

--- All four of the ACC’s other games were decided by a single score: Notre Dame had lost four of five but hit a chip shot in the waning seconds of the game to beat MIAMI, 30-27 (the Canes have now lost four games in a row); BOSTON COLLEGE notched their first conference win by going ahead late on a halfback pass against NC STATE; GEORGIA TECH managed to escape with a win against DUKE after blowing a three-touchdown lead; Army had two fourth quarter touchdowns to notch in important win over WAKE FOREST in their quest for bowl eligibility.

baylor texas

[Cooper Neill – Getty Images]

Big 12

--- With a soft non-conference schedule and a smooth start to league play, BAYLOR made it to 6-0 on the season; TEXAS, fresh off a loss to Kansas State, had fallen to 3-4 and Charlie Strong’s job security never seemed more tenuous. The Longhorns managed to overcome their shaky defense and handed Baylor its first loss  of the season – by a single point – after hitting a game-winning field goal with less than a minute left. The game started off with two touchdowns from each team in quick succession, but the defenses settled in and stopped conceding such rapid scores. Baylor actually took a 34-26 lead in the fourth quarter after two long field goal drives, but Texas scored a touchdown (but didn’t convert the two-point conversion), got the ball back, and took the ball into field goal range for Trent Domingue’s winner. The Bears outgained Texas by going towards more of a ground-based attack against the Horns and ran for 398 yards on 5.9 yards per attempt, but settling for short field goals ultimately doomed them and ended their undefeated season.

--- The Big 12’s other undefeated team faced a stiffer test than Baylor did, and wound up losing by three scores. WEST VIRGINIA has exceeded expectations thus far, but their undefeated season – like Baylor’s – featured wins over mostly mediocre (or worse) teams and a road trip against OKLAHOMA STATE handed them their first loss. The Cowboys forced three Skyler Howard turnovers (and held the WVU aerial attack to just 5.4 yards per pass) and didn’t turn the ball over once, which helped them overcome getting outgained by the Mountaineer offense. OSU wasn’t able to establish much of a running attack, but Mason Rudolph threw for three scores and added another on the ground to help get the win. After taking a two-score lead into halftime, Oklahoma State missed a field goal, the two teams exchanged punts, and then a particularly brutal Howard pick set up a short touchdown drive to put the game out of reach. The Big 12 title picture is now wide open: West Virginia, Baylor, and Oklahoma State each have a single loss, but OKLAHOMA (who beat KANSAS 56-3 this week and haven’t faced any of the other three teams yet) is still undefeated in conference play – despite having a losing record against their tough non-conference schedule.

--- The other two games in the Big 12 were close contests between teams towards the bottom of the conference standings. Improbably, the TEXAS TECH TCU matchup only produced 34 combined points in regulation; after two overtimes, the Red Raiders emerged from Fort Worth with a 27-24 win. TTU’s star quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, wasn’t his usual self after a herculean week against Oklahoma the week before, but the Tech defense turned in its best performance of the year, looking like a completely different unit than the one that’s bled yardage and points all season. KANSAS STATE held a commanding 31-10 lead heading into the fourth quarter against IOWA STATE, but the Cyclones scored 16 points to make the final margin look close – had they recovered an onside kick with less than a minute left, they’d have had a chance to pull off the comeback.

wisc neb

[Mike McGinnis – Getty Images]

Big Ten

--- The game that might wind up being the de facto B1G West title game was stereotypical: NEBRASKA and WISCONSIN combined to go 26-54 passing for 267 yards, one touchdown, and four picks – the ground game was key for both teams but Wisconsin moved the ball better and eventually won in overtime after Nebraska came back from down ten in the fourth quarter. It was a hard-fought, prototypical “is it good defense or bad offense?” Big Ten game, and the Badgers’ easy touchdown in overtime proved to be the difference in a 23-17 win. Dare Ogunbowale wound up being the star of the day for Wisconsin instead of starting running back Corey Clement; the third-down / change-of-pace back ran for 120 yards and the game-winning touchdown on over ten yards per carry. Wisconsin rotated quarterbacks once again, but neither were effective. Nebraska still has a one-game lead over Wisconsin in the conference standings, but have to travel to Columbus to face Ohio State next weekend. As long as Nebraska doesn’t win out – which is quite unlikely – Wisconsin should win the B1G West (as their schedule gets much easier than the stretch they’ve been in for the last month or so).

--- A win for OHIO STATE in their matchup with Nebraska looks less certain than it did earlier this season, however. The Buckeyes hosted NORTHWESTERN a week after their shock upset loss to Penn State, but only managed to escape with a 24-20 win over the Wildcats, who had a chance to tie late but settled for a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the 15 and never got the ball back. The OSU offense clicked nicely early on – scoring on their first three drives (two long touchdown marches and a field goal drive set up by an interception) – but struggled afterwards, allowing Northwestern back into the game before taking the lead for good on a Curtis Samuel rushing touchdown in the fourth quarter. Samuel received more touches after being invisible outside of a long touchdown against Penn State, but complaints about conservative play-calling and unimaginative design persist. Nebraska’s still somewhat of an unknown quantity and it will be difficult for their run-heavy offense to control the game against a talented Buckeye defense, but an upset is possible and would definitely shake up the Big Ten title race.

--- Of course, right now it looks like the West is probably Wisconsin’s to lose, and that the winner of the finale between MICHIGAN and Ohio State will be the East’s representative in the Big Ten Championship. The Wolverines continued their unbeaten season with a win over MICHIGAN STATE; after a sequence late in the second quarter featuring a Jourdan Lewis interception and a quick drive into field goal range made it a three-score game at halftime, it looked like it could get ugly, but an ineffective Michigan offense in the second half and a couple of late touchdowns from State made the final margin, 32-23, pretty close. The turnover margin was even and the total yardage pulled close to even by the end, but the outcome wasn’t seriously in doubt.

--- Elsewhere across the Midwest, PENN STATE clobbered PURDUE after a slow start, MINNESOTA handled ILLINOIS with ease, and INDIANA’s offense woke up in a shootout win over MARYLAND – an effective rotation between Richard Lagow and Zander Diamont helped the Hoosiers account for 650 yards of total offense.

wash utah

[Rick Bowmer – AP]

Pac-12

--- In their toughest test of the season, by far, WASHINGTON took UTAH’s best shot before a Dante Pettis punt return touchdown late in the game provided the winning score in a critical 31-24 win for the Huskies. U-Dub controlled the game for most of the first half and had a 14-0 lead before an interception gave Utah a short field – they cashed that turnover in for a touchdown, forced a punt, and had a surprising two-minute drill to hit a field goal as time expired on the first half. After opening the second half with a long touchdown drive, the Utes led, but Washington responded with a touchdown of their own. Utah later tied the game again, but made the mistake of kicking to Pettis, one of the nation’s most dangerous return men, in a spot where he had room to operate. While Washington QB Jake Browning wasn’t quite his usual self, RB Myles Gaskin and the offensive line had a nice day on the ground; Utah’s suspect passing game didn’t do much either, but recently unretired RB Joe Williams had 35 carries for 179 yards and a touchdown. Washington has a few more potentially tricky games left on the schedule, most notably against WASHINGTON STATE – who had an epic comeback to beat OREGON STATE and stay undefeated in Pac-12 play – but their path to a playoff spot looks very clear.

--- The rest of the games in the Pac-12 were pretty authoritative victories. USC continued its stellar play with freshman Sam Darnold at the helm and defeated CAL on Thursday; OREGON and true freshman Justin Herbert – who threw for 489 yards and four touchdowns – snapped a five-game losing streak with a comfortable win against ARIZONA STATE; STANFORD looked a little bit more like their old selves with a victory against ARIZONA, who are still winless in Pac-12 play.

aub miss

[Thomas Graning – AP]

SEC

--- Since the hideous game between AUBURN and LSU earlier this season, both programs have improved immensely; LSU was on a bye this week, but Auburn continued their winning streak with a 40-29 win over OLE MISS. Gus Malzahn’s spread rushing attack is finally clicking with the offensive line paving the way and with Kamryn Pettway in a feature role – the powerful back accounted for 236 yards on 30 carries and added a touchdown. This was an exciting back-and-forth game through three quarters – and the Rebels actually led heading into the fourth – but the Ole Miss offense petered out in the final stanza as Auburn went field goal – field goal – touchdown on its final drives before running out the clock. Ole Miss now sits at 3-5 on the season and was far too reliant on Chad Kelly, who threw the ball 59 times (for a whopping 465 yards) and added 11 rushing attempts. With the resurgence of the two Tigers in the SEC West, Alabama, who was also on a bye ahead of their matchup against LSU, means that Bama’s coronation might not be as easy as it looked back in September.

--- Of course, the SEC East probably won’t put up much of a fight against the West representative in the SEC Championship game. This week, there were three interdivisional matchups: FLORIDA emerged victorious from an ugly slugfest against GEORGIA in their rivalry game, TENNESSEE went on the road to SOUTH CAROLINA and suffered their third straight loss, and KENTUCKY beat MISSOURI in a game that wasn’t close – the Wildcats now sit alone in second place in the division, and even though Florida’s likely to be the East winner, Mark Stoops may have saved his job after a poor start to the season.

--- TEXAS A&M and MISSISSIPPI STATE had their obligatory mid-season out-of-conference cupcakes this week and won against New Mexico State and FCS Samford, respectively, though MSU got lit up for 41 points.

Comments

m1jjb00

October 31st, 2016 at 3:00 PM ^

Boarderline, sure, but horrendous, not even close.  Here's a good review of the call, though as detailed below I disagree a bit with the author:  It also has a gif of the play.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/10/30/13469582/jimbo-fish…

You can block below the waist under one of 3 conditions (and of course no one is hitting them high at the same time, which would be a chop block).

1. You're blocking inside the tackle box---clearly not relevant here.

2.  The ball carrier has not crossed the neutral zone---clearly not relevant here.

3.  You're blocking from in front, which has to be between 10 and 2 o'clock.  Here is where it's boarderline.  To me it looks more like 3 o'clock, which then makes it illegal, albeit still iffy.  The author thinks it's closer to 2 o'clock.  On the 2nd McDoom sweep, Deveon had a great block going low on a guy downfield, but that was straight in front.

And obviously, to be illegal the block has to be below the waist, which I think it is.

BornInA2

October 31st, 2016 at 4:07 PM ^

I still can't help being happy when Arizona loses. They are losing patience fast with WCiMFH down there. Maybe he'll have to hold open tryouts for the head coach position during their next road game.

UMBSnMBA

October 31st, 2016 at 4:12 PM ^

I would not want to see them go to one of the top bowls.  They probably wouldn't stink it up as bad as MSU in last year's CFP semi-final, but MAC football doesn't really hold up well.  Sure they beat a couple of Big Ten lower tier teams, but those aren't Louisville, Ohio State or any of the other potentials opponents.

Steves_Wolverines

October 31st, 2016 at 4:24 PM ^

CFP Predictions:
 

Alabama runs the SEC, #1 seed in the CFP

Michigan runs the B1G, #2 seed in the CFP

3 and 4 are in the air

Clemson will lose in the ACC Championship game to Va Tech

Washington will stumble to either Cal, USC, or Washington State, but win the Pac-12 Championship over Colorado.

Louisville will lose to Houston or Kentucky

A&M goes undefeated the rest of the way (beating LSU and Ole Miss)

#3 and #4 spots will be decided between

1-loss Clemson, Washington (Pac-12 Champs), and A&M

2-loss Louisville, Ohio State, Va Tech (ACC Champs), Oklahoma (Big-12 Champs)

My prediction would be Washington as #3 and A&M as #4

 

Toasted Yosties

October 31st, 2016 at 4:53 PM ^

I'm not working out the logistics of it, but I really want Michigan to play Washington in the semi finals. I feel like we are both teams that have been out of the spotlight for sometime and are reestablishing ourselves as elites. It'd be sweet to knock them off before shocking the world by knocking off Alabama in the Title game.

Steves_Wolverines

October 31st, 2016 at 4:58 PM ^

Good point.

I know I'm making a ton of assumptions, and there's so much football left to be played, but it seems like there is really only a pool of 9 or 10 teams at the moment for the 4 spots in the CFP.

Clemson could win out, making my scenario pointless. Bama could stumble. Michigan could lose The Game. Washington could run the table in the Pac-12. 

I guess if I were picking 4 teams, I would choose Alabama, Michigan, Washington, and Clemson. In that order. I'd love to get a crack at Washington, plus the rematch for Alabama and Clemson. Then Michigan vs Bama.