The $1M Odds On Favorites: Not This Road Dog

jamiemac September 30th, 2014 at 12:05 PM

[Ed-Seth: Hey look everybody, something that's not that thing. Jamiemac of Just Cover Blog and the MGoPodcast was dragged out of quasi-retirement for a weekly thing on lines, tips, and expectations, and Draft Kings’ offered to to sponsor it. How it works: we identify a Draft Kings fantasy game (could be NFL, CFB, CBB, etc.) to commune in, followed by Jamie’s discussions on odds of relevance to you. This week we're playing for… /raises pinky One MILLION dollars.]

THIS WEEK’S GAME: ONE MILLION DOLLARS!

Yeah it's NFL this week, because DK has $1 million out there for the winner. That's enough money to actually have a say in Michigan's athletic department. Or you could blow it on funny hats.

Details:

$2,200,000 prize pool.
First place wins $1,000,000
$27 entry fee.
Top 15,500 are paid.
Starts on Sunday, October, 5th at 1:00 EST.
Salary Cap Style Drafting. $50,000 to select 9 spots. 8 players and 1 defense.
Roster Format: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 Defense.
First time depositors at DraftKings receive a 100% bonus up to $600

It'll be a big pool, which is why I (still Seth)'ve got home run threats all over my roster. Here's Jamie:

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THIS WEEK’S CHALK

If you've been following my ups and downs over the years, you know I love taking road dogs the week after they've been upset as double digit favorites. This theory has led us to covers—and outright wins—in each of the last two weeks. We had Iowa +7 over Pitt in Week 4, a week after the Hawks blew a game to rival Iowa State and last week we were on Missouri plus the points over South Carolina. A week after inexplicably losing at home to Indiana, the Tigers went into South Carolina and nipped the Gamecocks 21-20. Aint college football, fun?

Good news? We have three options this week. The bad news? One of them is Michigan, catching 3.5 points at Rutgers. Alright, that might qualify as terrible news. I realized midway through the Minnesota second half that UM would be in this spot and immediately decided to cancel this system for a week. There's just no way I'm betting on this team.

[Jump for the Pitt Trick, and every M opponent looking good]

The other two options are Pitt and Utah. You remember the Utes, right? Maybe you didn't notice them blow a 17-point second half lead en route to a home loss to Washington State on Saturday. But, they did and they were favored by 11 points on the closing line. Next up is UCLA in the Rose Bowl, where the current line sets the number at Bruins -13.5. As for Pitt, they lost 21-10 to Akron. Three cheers for a 2013 Michigan SOS bump.

Years ago, Pitt helped us get on this bandwagon. It was 2005, they had just lost to OHIO! (not That Ohio) and were traveling to Lincoln to play Nebraska as big underdogs. I still remember calling my bookie to take Pitt +9 and without hesitation he said, 'You and I are the only ones on Pitt. I like that pick." When the Panthers tucked away a cover in a 6-7 loss, he actually called me back to congratulate me. I've been on this trend ever since. Anyway, it's going to be tough as they take on Virginia this week. The Cavs are 5-0 ATS this season and dating back to last year have a 7-game cover streak going, the longest in the nation. But, I am not ready to buy into a team as conference chalk that went winless in the same conference a year ago. I might un-suspend this system just for the Pitt and Utah plays.

Two other teams last week lost outright as double digit chalk. Boise fell to Air Force, but the Broncos are not road dogs this week. They are slight -2 chalk at Nevada. Frankly, I think it's a good bounce back spot for Boise, but it does not qualify under this umbrella. The other was Penn State. The Nits have a bye this week. They play at Michigan next week. So if for some reason Penn State is an underdog in that one, we'd have a play. The summer line for that game was UM -7. Last week, sportsbook.com re-released it at UM -2. Today, at the same site, the number is UM -1. Stay tuned

SEC WEST SHOWDOWNS

The SEC West is a monster. Six ranked teams in the top-15. And a seventh in Arkansas who arguably is the most improved team in the country. The winner of this division should probably just get an AFC Wild Card berth. They've certainly been paying off for their backers, racking up a 20-10-1 ATS mark so far though the first month of the season. That record includes a 3-3 record that's been racked up during head-to-head games in the early going. Speaking of head-to-heads, does the schedule have a treat for us this weekend. Not only are all six ranked SEC West teams in action this week, but they're all playing each other. This weekend offers the deepest slate of games we've seen this year and the highlight are the three showdowns in this division. Here are my first instinct predictions on those three.

Alabama's Sims had a week to rest a bad shoulder. If Bama turns to running him this week just shoot everything. Photo: USATSI

Mississippi St +2 over Texas A/M. The Aggies snuck out a win over Arkansas last week, but frankly they were physically dominated by the Hogs. Two weeks ago we saw the Bulldogs steam roll and outclass LSU from start to finish en route to winning in Baton Rouge at night. Folks, that is no small task. Playing at home, look for them to pound the vulnerable Aggies. There wont be a miracle comeback this week for A/M. I don't expect Mississippi State to win this division, but I saw one more big win here before te brutal league slate takes its toll. Miss St 31, Texas A/M 28

Alabama -6 o'er Ole Miss. College Gameday hits Oxford and the Grove for what should a good time. Until the Tide take the field, that is. I've never really bought into this Ole Miss as a contender makeover. This line has already jumped from 4.5 to 6, and it looks like I am with the masses. Too much Bama offense and one too many mistakes by Rebel QB Bo Wallace. Bama 33, Ole Miss 24.

Auburn -8 over LSU. I think LSU is garbage this year. I mean, they almost lost to a Big 10 West team. They looked disinterested at home against Mississippi State and nearly got run out of their own building. I have no doubt the Mad Hatter has the chops to turn it around, but the SEC West might be too tough to do it this year without absorbing several more losses. Armed with revenge, I don't think Gus Malzhan takes any mercy. LSU wont be able to tack on a bunch of garbage points to make the game look close like the did against Miss St two weeks ago. Did you know that as head coach or offensive coordinator that Malzhan's teams are on a 38-19 ATS run. They've failed to cover their last two, however. Consider this the Monty Burns Memorial Playing The Percentages Strawberry Pick Of The Week. War Eagle rolls. Auburn 36, LSU 19

Tennessee -2 over Florida. BONUS SEC EAST PICK!! It says a lot that what used to a marquee game of the season is relegated to 4rth best status of the day on the SEC slate. The Vols looked good for awhile at Oklahoma and I thought they played really well last against Georgia. The Gators needed everything in their bag to squeak by UK and were crushed by Bama. I sense these programs going in different directions. I'm calling for Butch Jones first big SEC win of his Tennessee tenure. Suree, beating the Gators might not be a big win for half the league anymore, but it's still serious news for Rocky Top. Vols 23, Gators 17

BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK

Nebraska at Michigan State. The line in this game has already been jacked up. After opening as MSU -7 on Sunday afternoon, it was already MSU -9 or -9.5 across the online book spectrum 24 hours later. All that movement did was nearly catch the line back up to what sportsbook.com has been hanging all September, MSU -10. I am fascinated by this game. Nebraska is really the only Big Ten team--save for Russell Wilson's Wisconsin team--that has really done any recent damage to Narduzzi's killer defense. In 2012, Nebraska averaged 6.47 yards per play against State.

I love Abdullah exactly as much as I fear State's defense when the safeties don't have to play back against Armstrong. [Upchurch]

Last year, in MSU's dominant Rose Bowl run, Nebraska still managed 6.12 yards per play. Overall, MSU only permitted 4.37 and 4.04 yards per play respectively in those seasons. The Huskers won on this field in 2012, but lost 41-27 a year ago at home to MSU. But they were -5 in turnovers and gifted MSU 17 first half points on short fields. They turned it over on the third play from scrimmage and on their sixth. They fumbled a punt later in the first quarter and, after steadying the game, they fumbled it away once more before halftime to allow MSU to open a 20-7 lead. They never looked back. The Spartans stone every tailback they face.

Except for my personal favorite Ameer Abdullah, whose rushed for 233 yards on 44 carries combined the last two years. I think he keeps Nebraska in the game, but I really worry about QB Tommy Armstrong's TO habits, especially since he was a main culprit in their derp display in last year's match. I am especially interested in the total because I don't think much of the Husker's defense. The way Connor Cook and company are rolling, I'd expect their offense to continue to jell. The Huskers have scored 31 points in all their games. MSU has toped 45 three times, albeit against shaky foes. But they still dropped 27 on Oregon on the road. Expect at least 60 points to be scored in this one, so bet accordingly when the official betting totals are released later in the week.

THE WILD WORLD OF BIG 12 OVERS

Speaking of Overs, if you love playing high totals, take a look at the Big 12. Games involving the Big 12 have gone over at a 25-14-1 clip. Not everybody is contributing. Kansas and Texas have each won money for Under backers. And those two danced this past weekend to a 23-0 final and Under the 42 point total. Cashing too many Unders is a problem, per the league by laws, and Kansas was forced to can Charlie Weis in the aftermath. The rest of the league has been a dream for Over bettors. The other four league head-to-heads played this season (KSU-ISU, WVA-OU, TTech-Okie St and Baylor-ISU) have cruised to a 4-0 mark, with three of those wins clearing the total by at least a touchdown. This week we have a full schedule of Big 12 conference games, five games in total: OU at TCU, Baylor at Texas, ISU at Okie St, Kansas at WVA and Texas Tech at KState. Does this continue? I cant find a spot where totals for Saturday have been released yet, but rest assured we're refreshing our various odd trackers in anticipation. I'd be shocked if we cant find at least one total to ride. It's probable that many of these total will be set at a very high number, designed to give would be bettors sticker shock as the weigh a potential Over play. But consider this, since the start of 2011, Baylor, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are a combined 33-16-3 against any overs set at 70 points or higher. Early prediction without seeing the numbers yet: Two of those will tilt the Over and West Virginia will score enough against Kansas to hit whatever the Over is all by themselves.

ONE LAST PICK

Before signing off, one more play. I love the Irish +1 at home vs Stanford. Everett Golson still has not lost a regular season start and he's looked really good this year. The Cardinal are on a down swing, in my opinion, and I don't think they have the unique defensive play wreckers they've had in recent seasons. I sense the Irish might cruise in this game by more than a touchdown. After the beat UNC next week, it will set up huge showdown at Florida State on October 18. Current line for that one is FSU -13. That seems like a big number, but the spread was FSU -24 over the summer. A lot of people are coming around on the Irish. For this week at least, consider me part of that crowd.