Frequently posters lament the position breakdown of our team.  We hear we have too many slots, or not enough O-linemen; we hear that the defense is under-recruited or that we should have signed a particular player last year since we’re recruiting that position this year (Devin Lucien).

Inspired by the various posts debating the makeup of this team, I decided to analyze what a balanced roster would look like, how our current roster is allocated, and what the future may hold.

As we all know, the NCAA allows division I football teams to provide scholarships to a total of 85 players each year (while most players keep their scholarships for at least 4 years they are technically all one year scholarships).  Despite what the SEC may do with their scholarships, Michigan plays by the rules so 85 scholarships works out to 5 classes of 17 players in each class (5 classes assumes everyone takes a redshirt year).  A perfectly balanced roster would have no attrition; all players would stay five years; and 17 RS seniors would be replaced by 17 recruits each season.  Here’s what a roster like that would look like:

While we could debate the numbers by position group, this gives a pretty good blueprint for an ideal roster.  A team like this would rely primarily on upper classmen.  The structure would eliminate the need for desperation recruiting where the makeup of a position group is so dire that the coaches are desperate to land freshman to fill in the two-deep.  Obviously player attrition would make managing a roster so precisely impossible, however that doesn’t mean it’s not something quality programs should strive for.  Realistically, we could probably expect to lose anywhere from three to five players each season to the draft, injury, ineligibility, or home sickness; that would mean our recruiting classes would be 20 to 22 with 17 being redshirted and the remaining recruits added to the active roster.  It is well known that Wisconsin and Iowa start a high percentage of fifth year players each season, which may account for their quality play despite lackluster recruiting.

Let’s take a look at our current roster compared to the “ideal” roster:

*Recruits are projected for this class

As you can see, the team lacks consistency from season-to-season.  We have an abundance of WRs, a dearth of O-linemen and D-tackles, and a cluster of safeties all in one season.  I suspect that over the next couple of seasons Coach Hoke will try to remedy this by balancing recruiting the way I described above.  For some insight into the coach’s thinking, here’s a look at our current offers and the way I suspect the class will break down:

Currently we have made 37 offers, and we’ll probably make another 50 to 60 between now and signing day.  Based on what TomVH told us about signing percentages and our expectations for some of the players listed above, we can probably expect to sign around 12 or so of the players above and eight from future offers.  It will be interesting to see how close this projection will be.  It would be nice to return to the days when our teams didn’t rely on underclassmen too much.  Hopefully, roster management and recruiting will be some of Hoke’s strengths.