Short Essay Question- compare and contrast the records of recent M Defensive Coordinators
I have fond memories of Mattison as our DC so I wanted to see how he ranked against the performance of our other DCs in recent history. Starting with Gary Moeller’s first year at DC in 1982 I judged each DC by the simple metric of average points allowed per game over their tenure. It would be interesting to expand this into other statistics but like, you know, I have a job and family and stuff. Anyway I think points allowed is probably the most direct measure of a DC’s success or lack thereof. I also think 1982 is a good year to start as it roughly corresponds to the beginning of what you could call the “really modern” era of college football when passing offenses became more sophisticated.
Here are the results by season:
Season |
DC |
tot points |
|
games |
ppg |
|
1982 |
Moeller |
204 |
|
12 |
17 |
|
1983 |
Moeller |
160 |
|
12 |
13.33 |
|
1984 |
Moeller |
200 |
|
12 |
16.67 |
|
1985 |
Moeller |
98 |
(!) |
12 |
8.17 |
(!!) |
1986 |
Moeller |
203 |
|
13 |
15.62 |
|
1987 |
Carr |
121 |
|
12 |
10.08 |
|
1988 |
Carr |
167 |
|
12 |
13.92 |
|
1989 |
Carr |
167 |
|
12 |
13.92 |
|
1990 |
Carr |
161 |
|
12 |
13.42 |
|
1991 |
Carr |
163 |
|
12 |
13.58 |
|
1992 |
Carr |
127 |
|
12 |
10.58 |
|
1993 |
Carr |
153 |
|
12 |
12.75 |
|
1994 |
Carr |
232 |
|
12 |
19.33 |
|
1995 |
Mattison |
157 |
|
13 |
12.08 |
|
1996 |
Mattison |
184 |
|
12 |
15.33 |
|
1997 |
Herrmann |
114 |
|
12 |
9.50 |
|
1998 |
Herrmann |
235 |
|
13 |
18.08 |
|
1999 |
Herrmann |
247 |
|
12 |
20.58 |
|
2000 |
Herrmann |
229 |
|
12 |
19.08 |
|
2001 |
Herrmann |
237 |
|
12 |
19.75 |
|
2002 |
Herrmann |
265 |
|
13 |
20.38 |
|
2003 |
Herrmann |
219 |
|
13 |
16.85 |
|
2004 |
Herrmann |
279 |
|
12 |
23.25 |
|
2005 |
Herrmann |
244 |
|
12 |
20.33 |
|
2006 |
English |
207 |
|
13 |
15.92 |
|
2007 |
English |
278 |
|
13 |
21.38 |
|
2008 |
Schaeffer |
347 |
|
12 |
28.92 |
|
2009 |
Gerg |
330 |
|
12 |
27.50 |
|
2010 |
Gerg |
458 |
|
13 |
35.23 |
|
What a year Moeller had in 85! I’d like to look at that more closely. It is remarkable how consistent (and good) Carr’s defenses were over the years. I was surprised to see this because I was not a big fan of Lloyd as DC; I liked him better as head coach. I can’t remember specifically why I was not a fan, perhaps I thought he was too conservative, but you can’t argue with his results. It’s also interesting how much mileage Herrmann got out of 1997 as he was pretty consistently not so good in the following 8 seasons.
In order to use these stats to rate the DCs I have to make two major assumptions – (1) that the available talent on defense was spread equally through the years – this is obviously not true in a couple of outlying years (1997 vs. 2010 for example, agh!) but is probably mostly true, and (2) that the schedules were roughly equally difficult in all years – I haven’t attempted to analyze this I’m just going to go ahead with that assumption.
Ranking the Michigan DCs solely on their career points per game allowed looks like this:
Rank |
DC |
|
|
ppg |
1 |
Carr |
|
|
13.45 |
2 |
Mattison |
|
|
13.64 |
3 |
Moeller |
|
|
14.18 |
4 |
Herrmann |
|
|
18.64 |
5 |
English |
|
|
18.65 |
6 |
Herrmann w/o 97 |
|
19.75 |
|
7 |
Schaeffer |
|
|
28.92 |
8 |
Gerg |
|
|
31.52 |
Qualitatively, while Mattison is less than .2 ppg worse than Carr, I think he deserves at least a little bit of credit for the excellent ’97 defense that gave up only 9.5 ppg. Those were players that he had developed and in some cases recruited. Speaking of recruiting my recollection is that Mattison had an excellent reputation as a recruiter. Finally, looking at changes in ppg allowed from year to year, the 7.26 ppg improvement he achieved in his first year over the previous year is the best of any first year coach and best in the entire data set save the ridiculously good 85 defense that improved by 8.5 ppg. I’m going to go out on a limb and say he has an excellent chance of beating that record next year considering the large number of returning starters and truly awful 31.5 ppg benchmark.
Given the above and my flimsy assumptions of evenly distributed talent and schedule strength, I feel there is a more than reasonable argument to assert that Greg Mattison has been our best performing Defensive Coordinator in “very modern” school history. Conveniently, this is what I set out to claim in the first place. Carr is a strong second place and Moeller a close third. I would give English the Nod for 4thplace as if we give Mattison some credit for 97 we have to take some away from Herrmann. As it is English is only .01 ppg behind Herrmann for his whole career but more than a full ppg better than Herrmann if we exclude 97 from his record.
Conclusion – we can look forward to considerable improvement in our defense next year and for the next few years in the future. Hurrraaayy!!
January 19th, 2011 at 2:25 PM ^
Yeah this is definitely more of a diary entry.
Regarding the essay question, can I get an extension? My step-nephew's cousin's funeral is this weekend and I'm really down about it.....
January 19th, 2011 at 2:26 PM ^
Procedurally, this is a Diary post if I've ever seen one. That said, this is great information. Thanks for posting!
January 19th, 2011 at 2:34 PM ^
I mean, the things he brings to the table, just excite me even thinking about them. I remember thinking, while I was watching the 07 national championship game, that the Buckeyes just got out coached. It's been a long time since I can justify saying Michigan out coached anyone. The argument can be made, that Florida was a more talented football team, but it was in the preparation, that Florida looked superior. I may be drinking the kool aid, and sampling the corn bread, but on paper, this is a "home run" hire. Plus, it always gives me goosebumps, when I hear coaches associate UM, with coming home. Can't really undervalue a man's desire to restore pride in something.
January 19th, 2011 at 2:38 PM ^
Take out the 42 that we somehow allowed against tsio in 06 and that was as just good as some of the rest. However 1901-1904 I think they allowed on average .9 points per game so that might be the toughest to beat.
January 19th, 2011 at 2:37 PM ^
...the GMAT hire is a win?
January 19th, 2011 at 2:40 PM ^
weak heir - great hair - heralded
January 19th, 2011 at 2:50 PM ^
If you take away Hermans 97 don't you then have to give him back 06? One of the big factors you need to look at is points scored per game. The game is played differently than it was in 1985. I would guess that the points per game has increased and the differential of the games has reduced. For example Mich and Wisc in 1982 may have generated 60 pts but it was probably 57-3. Now it would be 37-23 and the 13-7 type games are almost completely gone.
January 19th, 2011 at 3:06 PM ^
Better measure would be where we ranked in the country against all NCAA Division 1 teams in points per game allowed as that would take out the effect of the general increase in the number of points per game scored due to changes in the landscape of college football over the past 30 years or so....
January 19th, 2011 at 3:16 PM ^
I'll see if I can check that out. Thanks.
January 19th, 2011 at 3:00 PM ^
Carr- :)
Gerg- :(
January 19th, 2011 at 3:01 PM ^
the picture drawn below. That is my response.
January 19th, 2011 at 3:01 PM ^
Can we now just all agree that I was right all along and that GERG is the worst coach in the history of college football?
So, so many dead kittens.
January 19th, 2011 at 3:22 PM ^
At least he'll always have "Syracuse vs. Notre Dame"
January 20th, 2011 at 9:43 AM ^
For all of Notre Dame's arrogance, especially in the Ishaq Williams recruitment, we still beat them twice in our 2-for-1. Coupled with Michigan's annual ownage of the Irish:
To hell with Notre Dame.
January 19th, 2011 at 3:41 PM ^
have to worry that we just entrusted our defense to a guy that just ran a program into the ground. Still have no idea why RR would have made that hire.
January 19th, 2011 at 4:17 PM ^
Could be any number of reasons. My guess is that his budget for a DC salary was limited and Gerg was the best candidate he could find for the price. It's easy to look at the Mattison hire and criticize Rodriguez's staff management skills, but Brandon has been AD for less than a year and it's only with this latest coaching change that purse strings have opened for assistant coaches. If Bill Martin opened up the wallet two years agao after we let Shafer go and told Rich, "anybody you want, money is no object", things might have turned out differently on the defensive side of the ball.
January 19th, 2011 at 4:21 PM ^
We would still have had a secondary full of freshman and a bad turnover margin so it's not all Gerg's fault. I also expect it's harder to hire a good assistant when you are seen to be on the hot seat.
January 19th, 2011 at 4:46 PM ^
Oh, I don't think it was all Gerg's fault. My reply was more in trying to address what I think is the false meme that Rodriguez was bad at hiring coaches. Brandon dangles a fat salary in front of Mattison and he comes back to Ann Arbor and Hoke is credited with some kind of master stroke.
Dave could've paid for Mattison's services and still kept Rodriguez on as head coach and there would be a lot less uncertainty surrounding the future of the program, in my opinion.
The treatment and support Brady Hoke is getting from all corners stand in stark contrast to Rich Rodriguez's experience, and I hope it pays dividends in the coming season, but it still doesn't sit well with me.
January 19th, 2011 at 6:09 PM ^
from what I read it seems that Mattison's past relationship with Hoke was as important as the money in prying him from the NFL.
January 19th, 2011 at 4:34 PM ^
Good stuff....some other factors to consider would be the dual threat quarterback postition that took off in early part of the 2000's and strength of schedules.
January 19th, 2011 at 5:11 PM ^
Good information in this thread - the question is, based on the points per game, does this make GERG the Anti-Carr? Was this the problem all along? So long as the Anti-Carr was on campus, the land shall be filled with perturbation, despair and bad defense?
January 19th, 2011 at 5:33 PM ^
I added more data to the above. For people wondering about the state of the offense over the year. It seems but for a few years, offense seems to be doing fine.
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