If DRob is now "Pat White", how many carries should he average?
Not sure if you agree he is PW, but it is the current meme being put out there so I would assume there is an optimal range of carries in this offense that could be derived from Pat White's time at UWV. Obviously, the QB is reading a defense so some of it is out of his control, however, I imagine there is a target range for success. It would need to come from select games in his later years as to not distort the numbers. Has anyone completed this type of analysis?
September 7th, 2010 at 1:22 PM ^
as long as he's clicking off 7 ypc, just let him run it. I'd let the game conditions dictate it more than an arbitrary number.
defenses will adjust to him so his effectiveness and carries will go down.
September 7th, 2010 at 2:38 PM ^
Which somehow holds true in Denard physics...
September 7th, 2010 at 1:23 PM ^
As many as it takes.
September 7th, 2010 at 1:27 PM ^
It depends. If the run is working and teams can't stop it, then he should continue to run as often as the defensive formations allow (while at the same time not going overboard and risking injury). But, I suspect that ND will adjust to DRob's speed (as much as anyone can), and may stack the line. If this happens, then Denard needs to switch into Robo-Henne mode and start laser-targeting receivers over the middle. In such a situation, I could still see DRob carrying 15-20 times, but not 29.
To me, that's the beauty of Denard. If he is as good as he showed, then as long as the O-line holds up, he becomes borderline unstoppable. If you stack to prevent the run, he kills you with the pass. If you play off to protect against the pass, he kills you with the run.
Please stay healthy, Denard.
September 7th, 2010 at 1:32 PM ^
has 8 men in the box, then you are probably looking at man coverage on Stonum/Roundtree/Odoms or some other combo of receivers.
September 7th, 2010 at 1:27 PM ^
Obviously ND will be expecting the run. Now he needs to use short passes to set up the run and we'll be in business.
September 7th, 2010 at 1:27 PM ^
As many times as the offense dictates that he run the ball. The offense works by attacking a defense's weakness. If that means the QB needs to run 29 times in a game every game, then so be it. If that means he only runs 5 times and passes 50 times, so be it.
September 7th, 2010 at 1:28 PM ^
Hate to break it, but there are some defenses in the Big Ten that will eat it up if used to the degree that M used it against UConn.
September 7th, 2010 at 1:28 PM ^
Pat White averaged 14 carries a game (684 carries in 49 games). That sounds like what RR wants DRob to average from his presser.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_White_%28American_football%29
September 7th, 2010 at 1:36 PM ^
DRob's rushes were inflated as UM went practically to an all-run or plain-ole' QB draw, vanilla offense in the 4th quarter.
September 7th, 2010 at 1:30 PM ^
passes is a fine days work. Very nice way to start the year not just for us crazies, but for the kids actually out there.
September 7th, 2010 at 1:33 PM ^
ND - 17
UMass - 9
B.G.S.U. - 12
IU - 15
MSU - 22
Iowa - 16
PSU - 18
Illinois - 13
Purdue - 21
Wisconsin - 14
OSU - 16
Oregon - 18
September 7th, 2010 at 1:38 PM ^
The crazy thing about your precise projections is that I cannot disagree with any of these. But, I think you might have messed up our last opponent. Why do you think that Oregon will beat Boise St. out for a seat in the NC game?
September 7th, 2010 at 1:42 PM ^
Because Oregon State will beat Boise St. 34-27.
September 7th, 2010 at 2:23 PM ^
Vicki Vallencourt
September 7th, 2010 at 1:35 PM ^
YEAR | G | ATT | ATT/G | YDS | AVG | TD |
2005 | 12 | 131 | 10.9 | 952 | 7.3 | 7 |
2006 | 12 | 165 | 13.8 | 1219 | 7.4 | 18 |
2007 | 13 | 197 | 15.2 | 1335 | 6.8 | 14 |
2008 | 12 | 191 | 15.9 | 974 | 5.1 | 8 |
He missed one game in 2006 and one in 2008. In 2008, of course, no RR at WVU.
September 7th, 2010 at 2:57 PM ^
So about 15 carries per game ...
I bet we see some evolution this Saturday. He'll learn as the season goes on. He'll alos have to pass more as he comes up against bigger defenses.
September 7th, 2010 at 3:18 PM ^
White didn't take over as the starter in '05 until about midway through the season. If he hadn't started his whole career his carries/game might be a little higher, but not a ton.
September 7th, 2010 at 1:40 PM ^
one less then the one he gets hurt on. if its 15 OK if its 40 OK
September 7th, 2010 at 1:42 PM ^
Pat White averaged 14 carries a game (684 carries in 49 games). That sounds like what RR wants DRob to average from his presser.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_White_%28American_football%29
September 7th, 2010 at 2:16 PM ^
that his carries will be on the higher side for the first half of the season (20+ per game) and that they will decrease (15-20/game) a little bit once the OL and RB's gain more experience and he gets more comfortable running the zone read (i.e. handing it off a little more). Also, the teams we play from here on out will probably bring an extra man or two into the box to try and contain him, thereby forcing more throws and cutting into his carries. The main reason he rushed 29 times on Sat. was because, for whatever reason, UConn only had 7 in the box on virtually every play, making it more advantageous for us to run the ball.
Also, once we get our "Steve Slaton/Noel Devine" (whether a current back develops or it happens to be Dee Hart), Denard will not have to take things into his own hands as much.
September 7th, 2010 at 2:56 PM ^
According to the Hartford Courant (or whatever it's called), Denard = Pat Maize and Blue (hur hur). Seriously...
September 7th, 2010 at 2:58 PM ^
I'm sorry... PAT WHO????
September 7th, 2010 at 7:47 PM ^
29 per game is going to get him killed.
September 8th, 2010 at 12:34 AM ^
If he's running like a RB during those why will he get hurt anymore than a typical RB? I feel the hits that he's not expecting(when hes not on a specific running play) will potentially be the most dangerous. With that said i do know what your saying, i don't want him to be running it 29 times...I think 15 would be perfect.
September 8th, 2010 at 12:53 AM ^
Wow the whole first initial followed by the first syllable of the last name was old 10 years ago.
It's SHOELACE. SHOELACE. He is our starting quarterback - GET IT RIGHT.
September 8th, 2010 at 2:50 PM ^
It seems that 29 is not the optimal number and I'm hoping to see 10-13. Then again, I was hoping we wouldn't burn Devin's redshirt on a meaningless play with our former starter on the sideline. Anywho...if Denard is possessed and runs for nearly 200 against ND; I'll take it. I just worry that star skill players might look elsewhere if our QB accounts for nearly all of the offense. I'd love to see more downfield throws, but maybe that will come with time.
At 10-13 QB runs, I think we not only keep the defense guessing, but we also keep the other offensive players from getting bored. Sure, one game of QB-everything is fun for the team, but I bet kids get a little annoyed if they aren't involved in a non-blocking capacity.